Finding undervalued closers is one of the most potent weapons any fantasy baseball player can have at his or her disposal. Closers can be extremely volatile – relievers themselves can fluctuate wildly from year to year, and closers need save situations in order to get a save. Furthermore, closers depend on a manager’s usage more than any other player.

However, the astute fantasy player need not pay top dollar for guys like Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan (who, although they are awesome, tend to be overvalued). Rather, if you know where to look, you can get tremendous value on your closers.

With that in mind, I will periodically take a look at various closer situations around the league in an effort to find undervalued closers (or potential closers). Today, I want to look at my favorite team growing up: the Cleveland Indians.

The Indians are an extremely smart, progressive organization, that seemingly understands how to properly deploy its relievers – namely, that the closer need not be the best reliever in the pen. This is why Bob Wickman held down the job for several years, and why Joe Borowski was the closer until recently. Although both men caused Indians fan to have more than a few heart attacks along the way, they generally got the job done, and allowed better relievers like Rafael Betancourt to be used in more important, higher leverage situations.

That being said, the Indians are currently looking for a closer for 2009. They may very well obtain a reliever via trade or on the free agent market, but keep a close eye on home-grown Jensen Lewis.

Lewis held down the job at the end of 2008 and pitched admirably in the closer’s role, notching 13 saves. Of course, saves are much more about opportunity and usage, rather than a pitcher’s actual ability. And I think that Lewis fits the mold of what the Indians are looking for in a closer: namely, he’s not that good.

Bear with me here – Jensen Lewis is a pretty good pitcher. But he’s not an amazing pitcher; rather, he’s a solid guy who can go out there and get three outs rather consistently. He pounds the strike zone but isn’t as stingy with the free pass as Rafael Betancourt (a healthy Betancourt, not the 2008-version that was plagued with back issues). He gets his share of strikeouts, but isn’t a strikeout-machine. He doesn’t have extreme platoon splits, and he doesn’t get a ton of ground balls.

In other words, Lewis is perfectly suited to be brought into a game when there is no one on base. He’s not a guy you want to bring in when you need a double play, or when you absolutely can’t issue a walk, or when a strikeout is more valuable than any other out. And the Indians have shown in the past that this is the type of pitcher that they look to use in the closer’s role, while saving “better” pitchers – like Betancourt or Rafael Perez – for more important situations.

Thus, while many moves may still be made before now and the beginning of next season, my money is on Jensen Lewis being the Indians closer in 2009. If so, he has the potential to be a big steal on draft day: he’s not the biggest name, he won’t get the most strikeouts, but if he is named the closer he will rack up the saves for a good Indians team that will likely give him many opportunities.

To be honest, I had figured that Diamondbacks centerfielder Chris B. Young would be entrenched as a star-caliber player by this point in his career. A 6-2, 200 pounder with a unique blend of patience, power and athleticism, Young was originally a 16th round steal by the Chicago White Sox in the 2001 amateur entry draft. On the heels of a gargantuan season for AA Birmingham in 2005 (.277/.377/.545, 26 HR in 554 PA), Young was shipped to the D-Backs in a deal that netted Chicago the equally enigmatic Javier Vazquez. The one question that pundits had about Young was his lofty strikeout totals, but he appeared to be making some gains on that front as he climbed the minor league ladder:

2005 (AA): 12.7 BB%, 23.3 K%
2006 (AAA): 11.5 BB%, 17.7 K%

Following a .276/.359/.532 campaign at AAA Tucson that included the reduction in his whiffs, Young made a brief cameo with Arizona and looked poised to post some outstanding numbers as an everyday player in 2007.

However, Young’s transition to the majors did not go as smoothly as expected. His solid plate discipline eroded, as he managed just a 7% walk rate to go along with a lofty 24.8 K%. While he displayed a good deal of pop (.230 ISO), Young’s .237/.295/.467 showing earned him a -0.05 WPA/LI.

2008 brought him some gains in the patience department, as he upped his walk rate to 9%. However, that sinister K rate rose to 26.4% and he posted a .248/.315/.443 line, with a slightly better WPA/LI of 0.24. Young’s 77.47% contact rate placed him in the lower third tier among qualified batters, though it was actually an improvement over his 76.66% rate in 2007. Young also got jammed with alarming frequency, as his 16.8 IF/FB% was the fifth-highest mark among qualified batters. So, what gives?

If a player possesses good secondary skills (walks and power), strikeouts do not preclude success. However, a K rate in the vicinity of Young’s does put a significant cap on his batting average, putting more stress on his ability to draw free passes and pop extra base hits; if you’re only going to manage a .230 average, you better be able to draw walks by the bushel to compensate (lest you post execrable OBP’s like Young has to this point). It does appear that Young made some gains in this department, as he lowered his Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) from 22.87 in 2007 to 20.43% in 2008.

The question regarding Young at this point is, will he draw enough free passes to offset the handicap of a .230-ish batting average? Given his track record, it seems reasonable that Young will draw a few more walks as he matures, but the high K rate is here to stay given his contact rate and his issues with breaking balls. Still, he has the secondary skills and speed (27 SB in ’07, 14 in ’08) to be a fantasy asset. Only 25 heading into next season, Young still possesses the skills to guide him down a Mike Cameron-type career path if he can be a little more selective at the plate.

Suffice it to say, new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche has not gotten his major league career off to a rousing start. Better known as “the guy who went to Pittsburgh in the Bay/Ramirez deal”, LaRoche was nonetheless considered one of the most promising prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system.

You wouldn’t know it by examining his major league line, however, as Adam’s little brother put together a .166/.252/.256 slash line in 252 PA split between the Bucs and the Dodgers in 2008. LaRoche’s -1.82 WPA/LI put him in the sordid company of out-machines such as Michael Bourn, Omar Vizquel and Tony Pena Jr. So, who is the “real” Andy LaRoche: the guy with a rock-solid .294/.380/.517 minor league line, or the Andy Marte clone who has stumbled to a career .184/.288/.272 showing in 316 big league at-bats?

A 39th-round selection out of Grayson County Community College (TX) in the 2003 draft, LaRoche really burst onto the prospect scene during the 2005 season. As a 21 year-old in the High-A Florida State League, Andy put up a .333/.380/.651 line in 249 AB, popping 21 home runs. Vero Beach (his home ballpark) is known as a hitter’s park, but that’s still a pretty tasty showing for a young guy in advanced A-Ball. Bumped up to AA Jacksonville for the second half of the year, LaRoche compiled a respectable .273/.367/.445 line in 227 AB, with 9 home runs. Andy showed solid patience, upping his walk rate from 7% at Vero Beach to 12% with Jacksonville, though his K rate did increase (from 14% to 20.5%). Considering that Jacksonville plays as more of a pitcher-friendly venue, LaRoche’s second-half performance was solid.

2006 would be another banner year, as Andy showed excellent plate discipline in a return engagement to Jacksonville in the Southern League. In 230 AB, he posted a .309/.419/.483 line, with 9 dingers and more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). LaRoche’s walk rate climbed to a healthy 14.9%, while his K rate dipped to 11.6%. His power (.174 ISO) was mid-range, but the overall picture was bright: a player with refined control of the zone and doubles power. He would be promoted to AAA Las Vegas for the second half of the ’06 season, where LaRoche would compile a .322/.400/.550 line that conjured up memories of his 2005 slugfest, as he popped 10 homers in 202 AB. The SLG% can be looked at skeptically, however, as Las Vegas plays like a launching pad.

Andy would once again crush the ball in Vegas in 2007 (.309/.399/.589, 18 HR in 265 AB), showing the discipline (12.5 BB%) and low K rates (13.5 K%) that he had become known for. His first taste of the majors with the Dodgers would go at little less smoothly, as he posted a .226/.365/.312 line in 93 AB.

All of which brings us to 2008, a season in which LaRoche seemingly fell out of favor with Dodgers management. He put up a .293/.452/.439 line in 123 AB at Las Vegas, before he basically rode the pine for LA. As mentioned, LaRoche was shipped to the ‘burgh in a splashy deadline deal and proceeded to play at a level that made Pirates fans long for the days of Jose Bautista.

The first thing that needs to be mentioned here is LaRoche’s incredibly unlucky, break 100 mirrors/see a black cat/walk under a ladder .177 BABIP. That’s an absurdly low number, and even if we note that LaRoche hit line-drives at a below-average 15.6% clip, we would still expect his BABIP to come in at .276. If we adjust for that discrepancy, Andy’s ghoulish .166/.252/.256 line adjusts to .265/.351/.355. Yes, that’s still mild, but it doesn’t look quite so poor. And, given Andy’s 17-18% line-drive rate at the AA and AAA levels, we would expect his LD% to move upward in the future.

Another item that must be pointed out is LaRoche’s propensity to pull the ball in the majors. Andy’s minor league numbers paint the picture of a patient hitter with a high contact rate, a guy willing to spray the ball all over the field. Perhaps LaRoche still thinks he’s in Las Vegas, however, as he hit a groundball to the right side of the infield 37.2% of the time in 2008. LaRoche hit a grounder 49.5% of the time overall. Among third baseman with at least 200 PA, only former Pirates prospect-turned journeyman Jose Castillo put the ground on the ball more often. While Andy has certainly experienced some poor luck thus far, this is one area where he definitely needs improvement. You’re not in Vegas anymore, Andy: do what got you to the majors in the first place and spray the ball around the diamond.

While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.

I’ll admit it: I have a mancrush on Ricky Nolasco.

How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.

This year, Nolasco finished with a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched. That’s a very good season, but his overall numbers don’t reflect just how well Nolasco pitched for most of the season.

Going in to his start on June 15 against the Rays, Nolasco sported a 4.63 ERA, and had a 43/26 strikeout/walk ratio in 72 innings. However, on that fateful night in Tropicana Field, something changed. Perhaps it was a minor adjustment that paid major dividends, or the result of something Nolasco had been working on for years; either way, Nolasco was never the same after.

On June 15, Nolasco allowed two earned runs allowed in eight and two thirds innings, with one walk and 12 strikeouts. It was only the third time he had walked less than two batters (the second time was his previous start), and the first time he had struck out more than seven in a start.

After his start against the Rays, Nolasco had 19 more starts. He walked one or fewer batters in all but one of those starts. And he struck out seven or more batters in 10 of those starts. In fact, including his June 15 start, Nolasco finished the season by pitching 140 innings with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 143 and walking 16.

Think about that: 143 strikeouts and 16 walks.

For comparison, CC Sabathia pitched 130 innings with the Milwaukee Brewers this year, and had a K/BB ratio of 128/25. From June 15 on, Nolasco had a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Sabathia did in his time with the Brewers.

Of course, Nolasco may not be in the same class as CC Sabathia. Nolasco’s one weakness is that he is somewhat homer prone: he gave up 28 long balls this season, including 15 in his amazing 140-inning stretch to end the season. However, that is not an absurdly high total, and it is artificially enhanced by a rather high amount of balls in the air that became homers.

Nolasco allowed a homer on 10.6% of the fly balls hit against him. League average for a starter is somewhere around 11%. Furthermore, Nolasco plays in a spacious ballpark, suggesting that he should allow even fewer homers than average. Therefore, we can reasonably expect his homer rate to regress next year.

Nolasco had a 2.95 over his 140-inning stretch of dominance despite having a homer rate higher than it should have been.

Even if we assume that Nolasco can’t possibly be as dominant as he was from June 15 until the end of this season, we have every reason to expect that Ricky Nolasco is going to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball next season. And he has the potential to be one of the biggest steals of draft day.

Flexibility is a valuable tool in Fantasy Baseball. Flexibility… meet Pablo Sandoval of the San Francisco Giants.

Sandoval appeared in 41 games for the Giants in 2008 as a 21-year-old (now 22). The Venezuela native has filled a number of positions for the organization over the past five seasons since coming over to North America, including first base, third base and catcher. During his time in San Francisco, Sandoval played 17 games at first base, 12 games at third base and 11 games at catcher – which makes him eligible at all three positions in many fantasy leagues. Defensively, he is below average at the infield corners and is better behind the plate, although his game calling and receiving both need work.

Offensively, Sandoval projects to hit for a high average, but with modest power (although that has improved each of the past three seasons). He has a career minor league line of .303/.342/.445, which is really nice for a catcher but not as much for a corner infielder. In his Major League debut, Sandoval hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 at-bats with three homers (an ISO of .145) and rates of 2.7 BB% and 9.7 K%. Given the offence built up around him, Sandoval is not going to set the world on fire by driving in a ton of runs, or by scoring a lot of runs (He’s also 5’11”, 245 lbs so he’s not going to be stretching those singles into doubles on most nights).

With Bengie Molina entrenched as the starting catcher in San Francisco, Sandoval likely won’t see the majority of his at-bats at catcher in 2009. However, both the first base and the third base jobs are wide open in San Francisco, which bodes well for Sandoval’s playing time and makes him a great option towards the end of your 2009 draft.