Wither LaRoche

Suffice it to say, new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche has not gotten his major league career off to a rousing start. Better known as “the guy who went to Pittsburgh in the Bay/Ramirez deal”, LaRoche was nonetheless considered one of the most promising prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system.

You wouldn’t know it by examining his major league line, however, as Adam’s little brother put together a .166/.252/.256 slash line in 252 PA split between the Bucs and the Dodgers in 2008. LaRoche’s -1.82 WPA/LI put him in the sordid company of out-machines such as Michael Bourn, Omar Vizquel and Tony Pena Jr. So, who is the “real” Andy LaRoche: the guy with a rock-solid .294/.380/.517 minor league line, or the Andy Marte clone who has stumbled to a career .184/.288/.272 showing in 316 big league at-bats?

A 39th-round selection out of Grayson County Community College (TX) in the 2003 draft, LaRoche really burst onto the prospect scene during the 2005 season. As a 21 year-old in the High-A Florida State League, Andy put up a .333/.380/.651 line in 249 AB, popping 21 home runs. Vero Beach (his home ballpark) is known as a hitter’s park, but that’s still a pretty tasty showing for a young guy in advanced A-Ball. Bumped up to AA Jacksonville for the second half of the year, LaRoche compiled a respectable .273/.367/.445 line in 227 AB, with 9 home runs. Andy showed solid patience, upping his walk rate from 7% at Vero Beach to 12% with Jacksonville, though his K rate did increase (from 14% to 20.5%). Considering that Jacksonville plays as more of a pitcher-friendly venue, LaRoche’s second-half performance was solid.

2006 would be another banner year, as Andy showed excellent plate discipline in a return engagement to Jacksonville in the Southern League. In 230 AB, he posted a .309/.419/.483 line, with 9 dingers and more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). LaRoche’s walk rate climbed to a healthy 14.9%, while his K rate dipped to 11.6%. His power (.174 ISO) was mid-range, but the overall picture was bright: a player with refined control of the zone and doubles power. He would be promoted to AAA Las Vegas for the second half of the ’06 season, where LaRoche would compile a .322/.400/.550 line that conjured up memories of his 2005 slugfest, as he popped 10 homers in 202 AB. The SLG% can be looked at skeptically, however, as Las Vegas plays like a launching pad.

Andy would once again crush the ball in Vegas in 2007 (.309/.399/.589, 18 HR in 265 AB), showing the discipline (12.5 BB%) and low K rates (13.5 K%) that he had become known for. His first taste of the majors with the Dodgers would go at little less smoothly, as he posted a .226/.365/.312 line in 93 AB.

All of which brings us to 2008, a season in which LaRoche seemingly fell out of favor with Dodgers management. He put up a .293/.452/.439 line in 123 AB at Las Vegas, before he basically rode the pine for LA. As mentioned, LaRoche was shipped to the ‘burgh in a splashy deadline deal and proceeded to play at a level that made Pirates fans long for the days of Jose Bautista.

The first thing that needs to be mentioned here is LaRoche’s incredibly unlucky, break 100 mirrors/see a black cat/walk under a ladder .177 BABIP. That’s an absurdly low number, and even if we note that LaRoche hit line-drives at a below-average 15.6% clip, we would still expect his BABIP to come in at .276. If we adjust for that discrepancy, Andy’s ghoulish .166/.252/.256 line adjusts to .265/.351/.355. Yes, that’s still mild, but it doesn’t look quite so poor. And, given Andy’s 17-18% line-drive rate at the AA and AAA levels, we would expect his LD% to move upward in the future.

Another item that must be pointed out is LaRoche’s propensity to pull the ball in the majors. Andy’s minor league numbers paint the picture of a patient hitter with a high contact rate, a guy willing to spray the ball all over the field. Perhaps LaRoche still thinks he’s in Las Vegas, however, as he hit a groundball to the right side of the infield 37.2% of the time in 2008. LaRoche hit a grounder 49.5% of the time overall. Among third baseman with at least 200 PA, only former Pirates prospect-turned journeyman Jose Castillo put the ground on the ball more often. While Andy has certainly experienced some poor luck thus far, this is one area where he definitely needs improvement. You’re not in Vegas anymore, Andy: do what got you to the majors in the first place and spray the ball around the diamond.

While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.