Remember him? If not, it may be because he has been on the DL more days than he has been off it (note: this may or may not be true) since his Major League Debut in 2005. In fact, if you thought Rich Harden was injury prone, Brandon McCarthy actually has him beat. According to the Baseball Injury Tool, McCarthy has dealt with injury issues on 14 different occasions since 2006, while Harden only suffered through 13 during that same time span. So now that we have established just how much McCarthy’s career has been ruined by injuries so far, let me discuss why he makes for a great gamble for your lonely dollar in an AL-Only auction.

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Earlier this morning, Zach Sanders unveiled the RotoGraphs staff’s NL starting pitcher rankings. The bottom half of those rankings consist of a mix of mediocre veterans, youngsters without a guaranteed spot in the rotation and rookies that fantasy owners are typically advised to avoid, regardless of that pitcher’s skill set. One of the most intriguing names in that bottom tier is Mike Minor.

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Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.

Chris Coghlan took the league by storm in 2009, posting a .372 wOBA and earning NL Rookie of the Year honors. Though his performance line was boosted by a rather high .365 BABIP, his skills were right in line with what he had been doing down on the farm. As such, expectations were high for a solid sophomore season, but unfortunately things did not pan out, as he finished with a disappointing .322 wOBA and his season ended prematurely after a knee injury.

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Once you display a skill, you own it? That’s what the Braves and their fans are hoping applies to Nate McLouth this season. To say that last year was a disaster may actually be an understatement. A ghastly .283 wOBA from a hitter who was rather consistent over his three previous seasons was quite an unpleasant surprise. McLouth’s strikeout rate increased to the worst mark of his career, his isolated slugging percentage dove for the second straight year to a career low of .132 and his BABIP plunged to just .221.

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Despite all the mainstream praise of his defense, Torii Hunter finally shifted to a corner outfield spot last season, and did so in deference to a rookie. Peter Bourjos, a former tenth round pick, usurped Hunter in center, playing the position on an everyday basis after coming up in early-August. Our own Marc Hulet ranked Bourjos as the Angels’ fourth best prospect before the 2010 season while Baseball America had him second. Both parties agreed that he had the speed to steal a hefty number of bases on an annual basis, and that his power is more towards the gaps than over-the-fence (.159 ISO in the minors). The part about his excellent centerfield defense isn’t relevant to our interests, since we’re going to look at his 2011 fantasy value.

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Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.

Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.

Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.

John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

Enjoy the long weekend even more by picking these two under-the-radar players…

Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers (owned in six percent of Yahoo leagues)

The 27-year-old entered the season as a huge question mark, all but forgotten after missing most of the 2008 and 2009 campaigns following surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. But happily, Bonderman has made a strong return showing in 2010. In 47.2 innings pitched, he has 8.12 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.97 xFIP.

He’s not the same power pitcher of years past — Bonderman is averaging 89.2 MPH with his fastball, down three to four ticks from his peak velocity. His slider, once a mid-80’s breaker, now averages 82.1 MPH. Bonderman has a 37.5 GB% in 2010, compared to a career 46.4 GB%.

Despite the velocity decline, he has nonetheless baited batters into chasing his stuff off the plate 33.7 percent of the time (27.7% MLB average in 2010), while also getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent (8-8.5% MLB average). Bonderman’s slider is giving hitters fits — they’re swinging at the pitch 54.7% (47.7% MLB average), coming up empty 23 percent of the time (13.6% MLB average).

It’s hard to say if he’ll remain healthy, but Bonderman is well worth picking up in AL-only leagues and has enough talent left to be of use in most mixed leagues, too.

Corey Hart, Brewers (40%)

Hart hammered pitchers in 2007, batting .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA. He also nabbed 23 bases in addition to hitting 24 homers. Though the 6-6 righty batter again went 20/20 in 2008 (20 HR, 23 SB), Hart’s triple-slash dipped to .268/.300/.459, with a .327 wOBA. His Isolated Power, .244 in ’07, declined to .191. Most disappointing, Hart hacked at 31.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2008, after chasing 25.7 percent the previous year (the MLB average was around 25% both seasons). As a result, his walk rate dipped from an already-low 6.4% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2008.

Last year, Hart improved ever so slightly — he posted a .260/.335/.418 triple slash (.331 wOBA). He traded some power for walks, with his ISO falling to .158 but his rate of free passes taken climbing to 9.1%. Hart didn’t run much (11 SB), but stopped chasing so many junk pitches, with a 23.5 O-Swing%. In 2010, Hart has kept the walks and started mashing to boot.

The 28-year-old right fielder has a .261/.329/.542 line in 158 plate appearances, good for a .371 wOBA. He’s walking in 9.5 percent of his PA and venturing out of the strike zone just 20.9%, while also popping 10 HR and putting up a .282 ISO. About the only disappointing aspect for fantasy folks is Hart’s three SB on the season.

Before you go batty over Hart’s Herculean power numbers, keep in mind that it takes about 550 PA for a change in Isolated Power to become reliable. Hart’s got pop — his career ISO is .203, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .209 ISO — but he’ll probably post an ISO closer to .200 than .300 going forward. ZiPS thinks Hart will post a .349 wOBA (.263/.326/.471) for the rest of 2010.

In terms of pitching attributes, there’s no better blend for starters than high strikeout totals, few walks and ample ground balls. The hurlers who can miss bats, limit free passes and burn worms reign supreme.

Oakland’s Brett Anderson fits the profile. One of the shiny baubles picked up in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal, Anderson ripped through the minor leagues (9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 56.5 GB%) and made the A’s out of spring training last season. As a 21 year-old with scarce experience above A-ball, Anderson was arguably one of the top 15 starters in baseball.

In 175.1 innings, Anderson struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, while walking just 2.31 hitters per nine. He remained a strong groundball pitcher in the show, with a 50.9 GB%. The lefty’s 3.61 xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, placed 14th among starters.

In terms of stuff, Anderson went from good to great during the course of the season. Take a look at his velocity chart for 2009:

In April, Anderson sat 91 MPH with his fastball, with an 82.7 MPH slider. By the summer, he was averaging 93-94 MPH with a mid-80’s slider. Overall, Anderson’s heater wasn’t a great pitch in 2009 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches), nor was his changeup (-0.47). However, he featured some of the best breaking stuff in the majors.

Anderson’s slider (tossed nearly a third of the time) was worth +2.51 runs per 100 pitches. In terms of overall runs (wSL), Anderson’s +22.2 topped all big league starters. His high-70’s curveball also rated well, though the sample is small considering that he threw the pitch less than seven percent (+0.25 runs/100).

Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool has different pitch classifications (his site classifies most of Anderson’s breaking pitches as curveballs). Whatever you want to call his pitches, Anderson showed exceptional control when he spun a breaking ball. He threw both the slider and curve for a strike 65.1 percent of the time (62.7 percent MLB average for the slider and 58 percent average for the curve).

For 2010, CHONE (3.92 FIP) and ZiPS (3.78 FIP) both project FIPs in the high three’s. The FANS are even giddier, envisioning a 3.48 FIP.

As that fan forecast attests, people are privy to Anderson’s talents. But he still might be a relative value entering the season. According to MockDraftCentral, the 22 year-old is, on average, going 35th among starting pitchers. That’s after regression candidate Jair Jurrjens and health question mark Brandon Webb.

The only thing standing in between Anderson and acedom is health. The A’s were pretty cautious with him in ’09, limiting Anderson to 94 pitches per start, but his innings total did increase by about 70 from 2008 to 2009 (it’s closer to 40 if you count his pitching for Team USA and a pair of Triple-A playoff starts in ’08). Given Anderson’s talent and modest ADP, he could be the rare top prospect who’s actually a bargain on draft day.