It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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We continue our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base

Let’s hit on the shortstops.

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We like it when our heroes succeed. Things wouldn’t be nearly as fun if Superman got toppled by Lex Luthor on a regular basis or the Joker kept Batman at bay. They make us feel good. Give us a sense of hope, if you will. Good verses Evil is the backbone of millions of stories the world over. Two of our shortstopping heroes have taken on evil (luck and the Baseball Gods) and are currently punching its face in.

Seeing Troy Tulowitzki’s name atop the shortstop rankings isn’t something new. He’s been one of the best players, let alone shortstops, in baseball the past few years. After a hot April (1.002 OPS) he cooled off considerably in May and June. His OPS those months were just .633 and .876. The May triple slash line of .209/.269/.364 is Jeff Mathisian in its futility. However, that performance can be attributed to a terribly unlucky and unsustainable .196 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That number rebounded to .319 in June as Tulo started to heat up, hitting .311 though his ISO was just .189. The power has come back in a big way these past two months, as well as everything else.

He’s obliterated opposing pitchers, putting up OPS’s of 1.019 (seventh in baseball) and 1.117 (third) respectively. His ISO over those two months averages out to ~.300, which is just a tick under that of Mike Stanton to provide some context. This is arguably the best two month stretch of baseball he’s ever played. He’s back to being the force of nature we’re accustomed to seeing, and it’s been fantastic to watch.

Derek Jeter is enjoying a fine second half of the season, welcoming his detractors to a heaping serving of crow infused humble pie. The turnaround actually started in July when he hit .292/.347/.449 in 98 plate appearances. This month he’s been amazing, hitting .398/.449/.490 in 110 appearances. That type of thing will happen when you have a .443 BABIP, thanks in large part to a 34.5% line drive rate. That obviously won’t keep up, and he doesn’t hit for power anymore, but he’s turned his season around and snuck his way back into the top 10 shortstops. He’s not what he once was, but for anyone that has played fantasy baseball for an extended period of time it should be nice to see Jeter’s name still among the leaders at the position.

Individual league trading deadline have either already passed or are quickly approaching. That means that the only way to try improving your team for the last month is dipping into the dangerous and murky free agent pool. Maybe these two players can help you.

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With so many articles discussing players and fantasy strategies to help advance you in the standings this year, it’s time to throw a bone to those in keeper leagues that are out of contention in 2011 and are already thinking about what to do in 2012.  Remember the game “Would You Rather…?”  I’m sure most of you do, but if you don’t, it’s simple.  You’re given two choices — sometimes both really good and sometimes both absolutely horrific.  Either way, you are obligated to pick one over the other.  Well, this is going to be an ongoing keeper league series now in which you’re given two options of which player you’d rather keep for the following season.  Since we’re in Erik Hahmann’s regular shortstop article time slot, we’ll begin there…

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Let me preface this by saying that Yuniesky Betancourt is not a good player. He’s been worth 2.8 WAR in 3475 plate appearances. That’s horrendous. In purely fantasy terms he’s never been particularly good either. He doesn’t hit for power, or run, or hit for a high average, or get on base. But, because he can play shortstop, not very well mind you, teams have given him over 500 plate appearances a season five years running.

He began this season just like any other, i.e. badly. In May he hit .176/.200/.289. Things started to come around in June as his OPS for the month ended at .690. Then it was summer time and Yuni was livin’ easy. He had a great July, for him, hitting .299 with a .752 OPS and 13 runs and 13 RBI. He’s carried that over into July as well as his .953 OPS would attest. To make it simple, over the last 30 days he’s hit .380 with 3 HR, 20 RBI and even 2 SB. Only four other shortstops have been better than Yuni over that time: Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera and J.J. Hardy. Those four are owned in over 70 percent of leagues while our man Yuni sits at just 28 percent. He’s hit so well that even noted fantasy writer Jason Collette traded Jason Motte for him a few weeks ago.

We all know that the shortstop position is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Any unexpected production is welcomed with open arms. He’s not likely to keep this up until the rest of the season, but if you have a void at shortstop, or own a slumping player like Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez, it’s worth overlooking the name and trying to cash in on the hot streak while you can. Another player in a similar situation to Yuni’s is Cliff Pennington. He’s owned in just seven percent of leagues but has hit .342/2HR/13RBI/2SB over the past month. Unlike Betancourt he’s been a good hitter relative to his position in his short career, so it may be more than a fluke.

Betancourt may not get many more hot streaks like this. Do him a favor and pick him up. He’s been a punching bag for so long that I’m sure he’d appreciate seeing his ownership percentage tick up over the 30% barrier.

At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos.  Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »

It may not seem like it, but even the most minor MLB trade can have an impact on your fantasy season. While your fantasy outlook shouldn’t change on guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Bourn or Hunter Pence; value can be found in lesser deals — where players are given new opportunities at playing time. Two recently traded players that may fit that description are Brandon Allen and Jerry Hairston Jr. Will they play a significant role in the last few weeks of your fantasy season?
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Asdrubal Cabrera has always shown the ability to hit the ball, but he is hitting significantly more home runs this season. His fantasy owners will be happy to know that there are signs that the increase in power looks sustainable.

In 1610 PA before this season, he hit 18 home runs, or 1 every 89 PA. This season, the twenty-five year old has almost equaled his career total in only 445 PA with 17 HRs — or 1 every 26 PA. These new home runs have really increased his value, especially since he is a shortstop. By looking at his contact rate, batted ball profile, batted ball angle and distance, let’s try to determine if the increase is from luck or a change in his ability.

Contact – The switch hitter is making contact 1% more often this season when compared to his career numbers. He is putting a few more balls into play, but not a significant percentage more.

Batted Ball Profile – Cabrera is definitely hitting more fly balls this season when compared to his previous 4 seasons. In those 4 seasons, he hit an FB 32% of the time. In 2011, that value is at 37%.

Hitting 5% points more fly balls will definitely help increase his HR total, but not to the level to triple the number hit. The key is not that he is hitting more FB, but about half as many of the FB (13.8%) are going for HR’s compared to his career numbers (7.2%).

Batted Ball Direction – Using the direction that the ball is hit, we can decide if he is turning on the ball more and putting it in the short porches in left and right field. Using an angle with -45 degrees as the left field line and 45 degrees as the right field line, the average direction of his fly balls and home runs can be determined. Since he is a switch hitter, the the average angles from both sides of the plate need to be examined (most of his home runs are from the left side of the plate):

Batting Right Handed (angle in degrees)
2007 = -3
2008 = +3
2009 = +9
2010 = -7
2011 = +8

Batting Left Handed
2007 = -6
2008 = -4
2009 = -5
2010 = -4
2011 = 0

Looking at when he is hitting right handed, he is definitely not pulling the ball more. Most of his home runs, 13 of the 17, have come when he is batting left handed where he is pulling the ball more this season then in any previous season. It is not a whole lot, but enough to make a difference.

Batted Ball Distance: Besides the angle, the actual distance the ball travels can be examined for when he hits left and right handed

Distance (in feet)

Bating Right Handed
2007 = 270 ft
2008 = 269 ft
2009 = 273 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 281 ft

Batting Left Handed
2007 = 281 ft
2008 = 276 ft
2009 = 300 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 286 ft

In 2011, Cabrera hit the ball further than in any season except for one year. He is generally hitting the ball around 10 ft further in 2011 than in the past from either side of the plate.

Conclusion: Even though Cabrera is making the same amount of contact with the baseball compared to past seasons, he is hitting more fly balls, hitting them further and towards the OF corners. The rise in home runs per fly ball may seem a bit high for Cabrera, but there are signs that the increase seen this season is not all luck.

As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »