Last week we went over our second tier of shortstop keepers. This week we delve into the third tier where we run into a few players coming off bounce-back seasons.

Emilio Bonifacio ($12)

Bonifacio was a jack-of-all-trades last season, spending time at second and third base, each outfield spot, and most importantly shortstop. Bonifacio’s game is predicated on speed, swiping 40 bags in 51 attempts last season while also hitting seven triples. Playing a full season for the first time, he shined for the Marlins, hitting .296/.360/.393 in 641 plate appearances. He possessed the fifth-lowest flyball rate in baseball, slapping the ball all over the field and making the most out of his blazing speed. It’s that speed that doesn’t make me too nervous about his .372 BABIP. If he keeps the ball out of the air that number should steadily be above league-average. He’ll be 27 next season and may have finally found his comfort zone in Florida. Keep an eye out for the Marlins’ free agent shopping, since Bonifacio’s playing time depends on them standing pat or focusing their money on non-third base positions.

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Last week we kicked off our 2010 keeper league rankings, and Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes were alone in the top tier of shortstops. This week we take a look at a second tier that is filled with the new youth movement at a position that could use a shot in the arm.

Asdrubal Cabrera ($19)

How much you value Cabrera is likely in direct correlation with how much you believe in his power. He hit 25 home runs in 667 plate appearances last season after hitting just 35 home runs since 2006, spanning 2,713 plate appearances in both the majors and minors. Back in June I wrote about how I believed in Cabrera’s new found power, citing an Ohio.com piece, as well as one written by our own Joe Pawlikowski, which noted a change he made in his swing similar to that of Ben Zobrist. My views haven’t changed. He’s going to be 26 on Opening Day and provides 20 home run power to go along with 15-20 stolen base potential. Yes, his OBP and wOBA declined month by month, but if you believe in the power there’s no reason value him lower.

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As you’ve seen, we’ve started to roll out our 2012 keeper rankings. Today we look at the top tier of shortstops, which includes two unsurprising names.

Troy Tulowitzki ($22)

It comes as no surprise that Tulowitzki is in the first tier. Over the past three seasons he has the eighth highest wOBA in baseball, behind only Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Kevin Youkilis. No shortstop comes within .20 points of Tulowitzki’s mark of .396. We’re talking keeper rankings, though, so what he did three years ago may not be relevant for 2012. Let’s take a look at last season. The 27-year old had another excellent season, hitting 30 home runs while driving in 105 runs. He doesn’t steal bases anymore, going from 20 in ’09 to nine in ’11, but when you have the power he does it’s a non issue. His strikeout rate was down while the walk rate ticked up. He reverted back to hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls, seeing his LD% jump from 15 to 19.

If patience is a virtue then Tulowitzki is one of the most virtuous players in the game. His Swing, O-Swing and Z-Swing percentages are all well below league average while his Contact, O-Contact and Z-Contact percentages are all above league average. When he sees a pitch he likes, he hits it. It truly is hard to find any flaw in his game. The only time he’s seemed human was May of this year when he put up a .196 BABIP and .278 wOBA. Take out that month and his seasonal wOBA jumps from the ~.380’s to .440. He finished the season as the 28th ranked player according to Yahoo!, which isn’t too far off from his 23rd place finish in 2010. I actually think our values have him ranked a tad low at 25th overall and $22. He’s just starting the prime seasons of his career and plays a premium position in a great hitter’s park. He’s going to remain in this top tier for the foreseeable future.

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After a sub-par 2010 and an injury riddled 2009, Jose Reyes burst back onto the scene in a big way this season. The 28-year-old had his best season per wOBA, finishing with a mark of .386, 20 points above his previous career high. He was great in the fantasy world as well, ending the season as the 29th rated player according to Yahoo! after coming in 103rd in 2010. The season likely wasn’t as good compared with his 2006-2008 years when he finished with more home runs, RBI, runs, hits and steals, but relative to league average it was a fine effort. When trying to predict what he’ll do in 2012 there are a few factors you need to consider.

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The season is over and that makes us all sad uncontrollably sad. As always, some players really stepped up and surprised everyone while a few pre-season hopefuls failed to live up to expectations. Today we’re going to focus on some shortstops on each side of the spectrum.

Surprises

Emilio Bonifacio

This was Bonifacio’s best season in every way offensively, setting career highs in every single category. In 2009, his only previous season with 500 plate appearances, he was 39 percent below average offensively. This season he was 13 percent above. The speedster even hit for a little power adding five home runs to his 40 stolen bases. His line of .296/.360/.393 was likely aided a bit by a .372 BABIP, but it’s not astronomically higher than his career mark of .339. He finished the season ranked as the eighth best shortstop according to Yahoo!. Not bad for a guy who was projected to have a sub .300 wOBA by Bill James, Marcel and ZiPS

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There aren’t many players who have bigger gaps in talent from one side of the plate to the other than Sean Rodriguez. The Rays shortstop has shown impressive talent against the Ned Flanderses of the world over his career. This season he’s been 43 percent better than league average against southpaws and 38 percent worse than average against right handers. The differences in OBP and wOBA this season are staggering as well.

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It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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We continue our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base

Let’s hit on the shortstops.

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We like it when our heroes succeed. Things wouldn’t be nearly as fun if Superman got toppled by Lex Luthor on a regular basis or the Joker kept Batman at bay. They make us feel good. Give us a sense of hope, if you will. Good verses Evil is the backbone of millions of stories the world over. Two of our shortstopping heroes have taken on evil (luck and the Baseball Gods) and are currently punching its face in.

Seeing Troy Tulowitzki’s name atop the shortstop rankings isn’t something new. He’s been one of the best players, let alone shortstops, in baseball the past few years. After a hot April (1.002 OPS) he cooled off considerably in May and June. His OPS those months were just .633 and .876. The May triple slash line of .209/.269/.364 is Jeff Mathisian in its futility. However, that performance can be attributed to a terribly unlucky and unsustainable .196 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That number rebounded to .319 in June as Tulo started to heat up, hitting .311 though his ISO was just .189. The power has come back in a big way these past two months, as well as everything else.

He’s obliterated opposing pitchers, putting up OPS’s of 1.019 (seventh in baseball) and 1.117 (third) respectively. His ISO over those two months averages out to ~.300, which is just a tick under that of Mike Stanton to provide some context. This is arguably the best two month stretch of baseball he’s ever played. He’s back to being the force of nature we’re accustomed to seeing, and it’s been fantastic to watch.

Derek Jeter is enjoying a fine second half of the season, welcoming his detractors to a heaping serving of crow infused humble pie. The turnaround actually started in July when he hit .292/.347/.449 in 98 plate appearances. This month he’s been amazing, hitting .398/.449/.490 in 110 appearances. That type of thing will happen when you have a .443 BABIP, thanks in large part to a 34.5% line drive rate. That obviously won’t keep up, and he doesn’t hit for power anymore, but he’s turned his season around and snuck his way back into the top 10 shortstops. He’s not what he once was, but for anyone that has played fantasy baseball for an extended period of time it should be nice to see Jeter’s name still among the leaders at the position.

Individual league trading deadline have either already passed or are quickly approaching. That means that the only way to try improving your team for the last month is dipping into the dangerous and murky free agent pool. Maybe these two players can help you.

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