Welcome back to another edition of the Pod hitter projections. Today I’ll look at one of last season’s biggest surprises, Asdrubal Cabrera. The primary contributor to this breakout was his power surge, as his ISO jumped to .187 and HR/FB spiked to 13.3%, both career highs. He was just 25 last year, so based on age alone, one might believe this is sustainable. Let’s dive into my projection and the thought process behind it.
It’s incredibly difficult to be worse than Alex Gonzalez was in 2011. I mean, I bet you could. Yeah, you. I know I could. We don’t get paid to play baseball, though. Somehow, Alex Gonzalez did last season and showed his gratitude by hitting .241/.270/.372 in 593 plate appearances. He did hit 16 home runs. His lone redeeming quality. As a whole Braves shortstops combined to hit .237/.267/.357 with 16 homers, 57 RBI, 63 runs and two steals for a team that won 89 games and narrowly missed the playoffs. Gonzalez is gone so things should improve…right?
Years of bad decisions by former ownership and upper management have left the Houston Astros as the worst franchise in the game. Their 56 wins were seven less than any other team. Thankfully for Astros fans Christmas came a bit early this year. Jim Crane bought the team from long time owner Drayton McLane and promptly fired General Manager, and serial screw up, Ed Wade, replacing him with Cardinals’ vice president Jeff Luhnow.
One of Luhnow’s first moves was trading reliever Mark Melancon to the Red Sox for shortstop Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland. The last thing a rebuilding team needs is relief pitching, so flipping Melancon for one, maybe two, useful pieces is smart. Getting Lowrie is smart considering the black hole the Astros had at shortstop. Last season two players, Clint Barmes and Angel Sanchez, saw time at short for Houston, with the former getting the bulk. Neither hit particularly well, Barmes’ double digit home runs the only saving grace. With Barmes gone to the Pirates the door was left open for an acquisition such as this. Lowrie is far from a sure thing, though.
The first thing that comes to mind when hearing, or reading, Lowrie’s name is ‘injury’. Here are the games missed due to injury by the soon to be 28-year-old over the past three seasons: 56, 94, 108. The number is getting smaller each season so maybe he’ll miss zero games in 2012…ok, maybe not. When he’s been on the field his production has been sporadic. Never playing more than 88 games in any of his four seasons, his wOBA totals are thus: .326, .212, .393, .297. If fully healthy he has double digit home run power and possesses a higher than average contact rate. His lack of steals hurt his value – he has only three in 256 games. He was a sleeper pick in last year’s drafts after ending 2010 with a .936 OPS over the last two months of the season. He continued that hot hitting into the beginning of 2011 with a .962 OPS in April, but fell off a cliff for the rest of the season, never finishing another month with an OPS above .700.
There’s little doubt, if healthy, he’ll emerge from spring training as the starting shortstop. If he manages to stay on the field for 120 or more games he’ll have a good chance at being an above average bat for the position. He’s not worth much of a look come draft day in standard mixed leagues, but in deeper formats, especially N.L. only leagues, a late round flyer should get the job done.
Jimmy Rollins inked a 3-year deal with the Phillies this weekend. Since he is staying with the Phillies, not much changed with his surroundings. The 33-year-old’s main issue is that he is fairly old for a SS and age is beginning to bring down his stats.
As you all are aware by now, us Rotographers held a very early mock draft this past Sunday. The team has done a great job breaking down and analyzing the selections at the respective positions they cover. Now, it’s my turn to take a look at the shortstop selections. I’m not going to talk about every player picked, only the ones I found interesting.
R1 P1: Troy Tulowitzki
R1 P11: Hanley Ramirez
R2 P7: Jose Reyes
It wasn’t the resigning the team, or fans, had hoped for last week, but Rafael Furcal’s return to the Cardinals is an important one.
It’s important for the Cardinals because they’re going to contend for a division title despite the loss of Albert Pujols, and Furcal is better than nearly every alternative currently on the market. It’s important for the fantasy owner because now the Cardinals may actually have a viable fantasy option at shortstop. It’s a position that is among the weakest in baseball and no team knows that better than St. Louis. Last season Ryan Theriot played 91 games at short before the addition of Furcal pushed him aside, hitting .267/.313/.323 with one home run – his only all season. The 2010 season saw Brendan Ryan come to the plate a remarkable 482 times while playing shortstop. I say remarkable because he hit .223/.279/.294, good for a .573 OPS, third lowest in baseball. Not even his stellar glove should have kept him in the lineup that often.
While we aren’t sure whether or not Hanley Ramirez is going to stick around in Miami now that Jose Reyes has come to town to take over the shortstop gig, but if he stays in South Florida, how does the Reyes’ signing affect Hanley’s fantasy value?
It’s a safe bet that Hanley’s HR and batting average aren’t likely to be affected by Reyes’, but other aspects of his fantasy value will undergo some slight changes. Let’s look at them, shall we?
The Marlins’ addition of Jose Reyes not only affects the 29-year-old shortstop, but also has a great impact on two other Miami players.
In October I penned a piece about Jose Reyes’ outlook for the 2012 season, focusing on a few factors that could be a burden or boon to his overall performance, specifically his health and the location of his new team. The health issue should be the biggest concern to fantasy owners and has been well documented so I’ll be brief. From 2005-2008 he averaged 158 games played. He hasn’t topped 133 the last three seasons. Unless his hamstrings magically heal over the offseason it’s nearly a guarantee that he’ll miss time. When healthy he’s a constant source of steals, runs and batting average from the thinnest position on the diamond. That’s first round talent.
Over the last week or so we’ve done plenty of articles discussing the impending move of the Houston Astros to the American League and how it will impact those in the fantasy baseball community. But no matter how many times we attempt to look on the bright side and find the silver lining in it all, there’s one common thing that seems to come through in every piece. It’s like that early montage in the movie Major League where the Indians’ fan base is looking at their 40 man roster in disbelief — from some guy asking who Mitchell Friedman is to the groundskeepers’ claims that “these guys are sh*tty”. There’s almost no love for the 2012 Astros and very little hope for the club moving forward. However, just like the old fantasy adage (is there such a thing?) that states that even closers on bad teams can be good and helpful, the same can be said about everyday players from Houston. Just because the team is in relative shambles, doesn’t mean that you can’t find some helpful players at a bargain cost.
One of the stranger deals of the off-season was signed a few days ago as Clint Barmes inked a two year, $10.5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. As a young team with limited financial resources it looks like a bad allocation of funds. To make room for Barmes they declined a $3 million option on Ronny Cedeno, who should put up similar offensive production for far less risk. Despite his obvious shortcomings, Barmes has real fantasy value, which illustrates just how bereft of talent the shortstop position is.
