Martin Prado had eligibility all over the field in 2013, but it’s likely that most owners used him at shortstop where he had the most value. In his first year as a Diamondback, Prado’s Steamer projections pegged him at .294/.351/.445 with 13 home runs, 84 runs, 66 RBI, and eight steals. As an outfielder that’s rather underwhelming, but as a shortstop, that represents a classic ‘checking off all the respective boxes’ in standard rotisserie leagues.
It proved to be paradoxical year for Ben Zobrist, who has been exceedingly popular in fantasy leagues in recent years due to his under-the-radar skills and positional flexibility. The 32-year-old experienced his worst offensive performance (.334 wOBA) since 2010, yet his fantasy value was arguably higher this season than it was a year ago, in which he posted a .365 wOBA.
This strange improvement wasn’t due to an unexpected increase in stolen bases or RBI, which would be similarly absent from his wOBA. Instead, Zobrist proved more valuable this year in fantasy circles than in 2012 because the overall production from shortstop experienced a sharp decline. He was the tenth-ranked shortstop in ESPN leagues in 2012, but the ninth-ranked shortstop this year. While his overall numbers took a nosedive, his relational value amongst shortstops actually increased, which is an overarching statement that’s interesting on its own.
Now, part of that was due to the injuries to guys like Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter, as well as an albatross season by Starlin Castro, so perhaps fantasy owners should expect the overall performance from shortstops to increase next season. However, the real object of inquiry in this article seeks to determine why Ben Zobrist experienced such a sharp decline in production and whether that decrease can be expected to carry into the 2014 season. Owners should keep in mind that Reyes and Jeter will return — and will likely demand a lot of attention on draft day — but Zobrist could be a sly under-the-radar pickup if he can reasonably be expected to rebound from his uncharacteristic season.
The only thing that has kept Everth Cabrera from topping 50 stolen bases in a single season is a lack of playing time. He only got 449 PA in 2012 because he didn’t get called up until May 17. Apparently Jason Bartlett needed to come to the plate 100 times first. And then last year he played his final game on August 4 thanks to his 50-game Biogenesis suspension. But presumably Jason Bartlett will not steal 100 PA from him and there will not be another suspension in 2014, so Cabrera has an excellent chance to steal 50.
He has stolen 81 bags on 97 tries in the last two years (83.5%), and he stole 128 bags in 1,535 minor league plate appearances (roughly once every 12 PA). And once every 12 PA was about the rate at which Cabrera stole bases last year. For you math whizzes, he’d get to 50 steals if he could steal bases at that rate over 600 PA.
Getting to the plate enough is important, but getting on base is at least as important for a base stealer, if not more so. Cabrera improved mightily in that respect last year when he saw his OBP go from .324 in 2012 to .355. The jump was due primarily to a vastly improved contact rate and thus a much lower strikeout rate. He swung a little less as well, but it was primarily the improved contact skills that facilitated the OBP improvement. A slight improvement in his line drive to fly ball ratio also helped out a little. Below are a couple of charts showing these improvements. Read the rest of this entry »
Remember when Asdrubal Cabrera was a rising star? 2011 doesn’t seem like it was that long ago, but for Cabrera it was. That year, he broke out as a fantasy star, hitting 25 homers with 17 steals and a .273/.332/.460 line in his age-25 season. Since then, he’s combined for 30 homers and 18 steals, and in 2013 he really cratered, putting together a lousy line of .242/.299/.402. Yet it seems to me that he still gets talked about like he’s a top-tier shortstop. Maybe that’s just me, or maybe it’s because “Asdrubal” is such a unique name, but it’s clear he no longer deserves that respect, finishing only 15th in our end of season shortstop rankings.
Throw in lousy defense — which doesn’t matter for fantasy, but does for teams actually wanting to employ him — and he was essentially a replacement-level player, and headed into his age-28 season with Mike Aviles around and Francisco Lindor coming, he may very well have played his final game as an Indian. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s like deja vu all over again here as I get to discuss the fantasy relevance of Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford during another post-season position wrap-up. For those who weren’t here last season or simply don’t remember, here’s the piece where I opine that Crawford may be an outstanding defensive shortstop, but he offers next to nothing in terms of fantasy contribution and is best left alone come draft day. Well, now here we are one year later and while there was a touch of improvement in some areas, the opinion remains the same. Enjoy the ESPN Web Gems and your local highlights on Comcast Bay Area, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, move along. There’s nothing left to see here.
The biggest story involving Zack Cozart this year was most certainly related to his spot in the batting order. He actually opened the season batting seventh, but after his scorching start that included a .108 OBP over his first nine games (he actually hit second in his eighth game), Dusty Baker had seen enough of Cozart’s strong on base skills to move him permanently to the top of the order sandwiched between Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto. It then took until mid-June before Baker realized the error of his ways and Cozart began shuttling back and forth between the top and the bottom of the lineup. Finally by mid-July, Cozart had officially become a bottom of the order hitter and would only see the two hole, or any lineup slot higher than sixth, once the rest of the way.
After a year in which one-time Brewers shortstop-of-the-future and current Royals man-up-the-middle, Alcides Escobar, batted .293 with a .331 on-base percentage and 35 stolen bases, expectations were running awfully high in fantasy circles. His lack of power was dismissed in favor of the potential for more speed and there seemed to be little concern over the fact that his walk rate stayed at its woeful 4.2-percent while he saw a minor spike in strikeouts. Some pointed to his inflated .344 BABIP but his supporters pointed to his minor league batted ball data and his above-average contact rates. But when Escobar finished the season with a dismal .234/.259/.300 slash line and swiped just 22 bags, the supporters ducked for cover as the naysayers (cue obligatory comment from John Elway) reveled in the glory of being right. Read the rest of this entry »
Elvis Andrus continues to be more than an adequate fantasy shortstop. This may come as a surprise, considering Andrus is known far more for his glove work, and not his bat. Yet, even in a down offensive season, Andrus still ranked third among shortstops in Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings. If anything, this shows how low the bar has been set for shortstop production in fantasy. Most of Andrus’ fantasy production comes from two areas, his ability to score runs and steal bases. In every other area, Andrus’ offense has been lacking. Often lost in the shuffle is the fact that Andrus broke into the majors at age-20. Given that he’s going to be 25, there’s still a chance for an offensive breakout.
This quote from FanGraphs commenter Scott pretty much sums up Andrelton Simmons‘ season perfectly:
Simmons hit 17 hrs? I thought he was mr defense. Guess he added some pop while I wasn’t looking.
After hitting just nine home runs in 1,096 professional at-bats previously, Simmons tapped into his power by nearly doubling that total in 45% fewer at-bats. But instead of also showing the above average speed he flashed during his minor league days, he stole just six bases at a poor success rate. We know that Simmons is a defensive wiz, but where does his offensive game go from here?
Every once in a while, something as simple as the way a player is talked about can give us some insight into their fantasy value. Take, for instance, this recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal about Jed Lowrie and Oakland’s plans:
Lots of speculation that #Athletics would move Lowrie. Keep hearing no. Plan was for him to be two-year bridge to Russell. This is year two.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 12, 2013
There are a few things to unpack here.