So many things happened. Everyone was traded. Everyone was released. And everyone was signed. It’ll fuel RotoGraphs pieces for weeks to come. You’ll see more in-depth pieces on these guys. But, with the dust settled, it seems like a good time to run all through some of the players that changed addresses, and talk a little bit about how they may have changed their fantasy outlooks for the coming season.

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I’ve written briefly about Jordy Mercer twice before; once a couple months ago, and once in June 2013. I first saw Mercer play back in 2006, when he arrived at Oklahoma State, and I’ve followed his career closely over the eight-plus years since. That piece from last June pretty well encapsulated my feelings about Mercer’s pre-MLB career:

I always wondered whether his hit tool would play at the higher levels.

In college, Mercer was right around a .300 hitter with 25 homers in three seasons. Keep in mind that this was before the NCAA switched to the offense-suppressing new bats; a .300 collegiate hitter wasn’t exactly impressive in that offensive environment. As he climbed through the minors, my concerns seemed valid, as he posted a batting average around .260 at most of his minor-league stops.

Then, last year, something seemed to change. Mercer developed an ability to get on base that he hadn’t shown before. He posted a much-improved .287/.357/.421 slash line in Triple-A, good enough to get him a call to the majors.

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I made a decision while trying to win a championship last season which I didn’t regret at the time, but now must deal with. I traded for Brad Miller. I didn’t want him. He was a throw in for a trade with bigger pieces, but he has a long guaranteed contract the other owner gave him. Coming into 2014, he looked to be a good middle infield option with both second base and shortstop eligibility. Now, he just gives his 2014 owners nightmarish flashbacks. It is not even clear if he will play much in 2015. I am going to see if there is any possible chance for non-dead cat bounce or if he belongs on the floor.

Generally, he was the same player in several categories:

Stat: 2013, 2014
ISO: .154, .144
HR/FB: 10%, 10%
BB%: 7%, 8%
SB: 5, 4

Power, speed and walks seemed fine.

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This probably wasn’t the type of year most fantasy baseball players who drafted or bought Andrelton Simmons expected from him. The Atlanta Braves’ shortstop finished with a .244 average, a mere seven home runs, and a measly four stolen bases. Even in a year of depressed offense and especially at a position starving for some of it, the third-year player failed to be replacement-level in the average mixed league, according to Sr. Zach Sanders’ shortstop standings.

Simmons seemed to have the makings of an underrated fantasy asset coming into this year. He hit .248 in the previous season yet struck out in only 8.4% of his plate appearances and hit .247 on balls in play, so he appeared to be destined to be a plus – or at least not a minus – in batting average. He swatted 17 long balls, demonstrating that he could be a power player. And he’d stolen as many as 26 bases in a season on the farm, so the possibility of more speed tantalized. None of those things materialized, unfortunately.

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Depending on your perspective, a feature/bug of Zach Sander’s valuation system is how it weights playing time. If you put Wilmer Flores into your shortstop position on April first and never moved him, he would have been worth -$7. On a rate basis, he’s comparable to Xander Bogaerts, Jordy Mercer, and Brandon Crawford, all of whom ranged from $2 to $5 of value. In other words, it was a solid fantasy debut for Flores.

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Jean Segura caused many a fantasy owner to shed a tear or two or three this season. One of those many owners was me. After a breakout (at least in a fantasy sense) 2013 season, Segura shot up the preseason rankings, actually moving up to third by our crew. Instead, he finished just 16th in value, barely playable as a middle infielder in 12-team mixed leagues.

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The 2014 season was not what most envisioned for Everth Cabrera. From the hangover of a 50-game suspension following the Biogensis scandal to separate hamstring-related disabled list stints and finally an arrest for suspicion of driving under the influence of marijuana, this year was disappointing for a variety of reasons. Cabrera had tons of hype and owned a pre-season rank of 4th best shortstop, but failed to crack even the top-25 of Zach Sanders’ end of season shortstop rankings, coming in at number 30.
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Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro entered 2014 with a lot at stake. After three straight above-average years to begin his career, Castro faltered badly in 2013. It wasn’t difficult to see why that happened. Castro’s peripherals moved in the wrong direction, and his BABIP dropped to a career-low .290. On top of that, he seemed out of sorts at the plate, posting negative pitch values against anything with decent velocity. Explaining why this happened, though, was difficult, and made Castro impossible to project going into 2014. Those questions were rendered moot after Castro posted his finest offensive season in 2014. As a reward, the Cubs might ship him to another club in 2015.

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My concept of Jhonny Peralta was born after his first few seasons, in 2005: “meh.” Since then, the league has changed. Which means it’s time to re-evaluate players that have stayed the same since then. Like Jhonny Peralta.

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How often does the hotshot rookie generate tons of hype, just to disappoint fantasy owners who expected the player to be a force from the get-go? It seemingly happens all the time. Owners then give up rather quickly on said player and move onto the next big thing. And that’s exactly when the former top prospect breaks out. It’s precisely why the post-hype sleeper term was coined to begin with. Will Xander Bogaerts follow this path?

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