Kelly Johnson came into the season a fairly decent option at second base. In one keeper league I was in, him and Ben Zobrist were both available. I considered them to be at the same talent level and went with Johnson. Wrong choice. Today I will look to see why Johnson has fallen on hard times and was there any signs for the drop off in production?

First off here is a look at some of his stats over the years and his 2011 ZIPS projection:

Kelly actually looks to produce pretty decent in a few fantasy categories if he keeps producing at his current rate. If he were to play in 120 games, thereby tripling the number of games he would be in, his SB would extract out to 18 (a career high). Also his Runs (51) and home runs (12) would be respectable. His main problem is his 0.184 AVG.

There are two main factors driving down his batting average. The first is his lower than average BABIP of 0.250. He put up a BABIP of 0.339 last season and was projected to have one around 0.306 for this season. His LD% has dropped from 20.5% to 15% this season with most of the change going to GB%. Using the common run that every 1% drop in LD%, BABIP goes down 0.010, this would explain the drop in BABIP.

In 2009, he had an even lower BABIP (0.247) than he does this season, but his AVG was 40 points higher. The main cause for this difference is that Kelly is striking out twice as much (34.2%) this season, then he did in in 2009 (17.8%). Here is a look at his plate discipline over the past few years:

He is swinging at a few more pitches than in the last couple of years. This trend is not necessarily bad, but he is making less and less contact. His contact rate has dropped 12 percentage points (84.4% to 72.4%) over the last couple of years. The problem is not with him swinging at balls outside of the strike zone, in which his contact rate is up. Actually, he is having problems making contact with pitches in the strike zone (94% down to 78%).

Coming into the season, his AVG looked to regress some considering the high BABIP he had in 2010. His BABIP did regress, but the main cause of the lack of production is his inability to put the ball in play for the pitches he swings at. It would have been tough to predict the huge increase in strikeouts this season.

Kelly may be a buy low candidate (as he looks to still have a little power and can steal a few bases), but his average right now will drag down the rest of the team. Until he is able to start hitting line drives and putting the bat on the ball, an owner may need to look for other options.

Maybe I should have scrapped the deep league waiver wire and started a new weekly, nay, daily, series entitled “I need a @$%^&*# third baseman!!!!” Unfortunately, since I am one of those poor owners who screams that every morning, I am afraid I cannot offer other owners any help. So instead I will once again point to some meh players who might be available in deeper leagues and might generate some value.

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A good story and a good leadoff hitter (for a bad offense)…

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There’s really no need to be embarrassed.  It’s a very common problem.  In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners.  I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time.  No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better.  It happens to everyone.  Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »

Today I will look at which of Dustin Pedroia or Brandon Phillips I would prefer to have as my 2B over the rest of the year. Pedroia has been a bit of a disappointment, while Phillips has had a better than expect season so far.

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Join us this week on Bottom of the Barrel Scrapers as we look at a stopgap infielder with multi-position eligibility and a former playoff hero who just might have found his stroke in 2011.  They may not be the tastiest treats on the fantasy dessert buffet, but hey…they’ve each got a World Series ring.  That’s something, right? Read the rest of this entry »

Play in a linear weights league in ottoneu (or Pick Six), and walks become that little sliver of an edge that you might be able to get over your competitors. But play in any league that values OBP and you might find yourself wondering which players take the most free passes – and most importantly, which players might be taking more free passes in the future based on their past numbers.

At the same time, a star that walks is still a star. How about some players that might be under the radar in a 12-team mixer that still add value with their walk rate? Let’s get them up in this piece. Did you know Jack Cust, who is currently batting fifth for the Seattle Mariners, is second in qualified batters in walk rate? He’s walking in nearly one-fifth of his at-bats. That’s right in line with his 17.4% career walk rate, and he’s well-known as a three-true-outcome guy.

Unfortunately, Cust’s .360+ OBP comes with a sub-.100 ISO. If you’d like a little power with your walks, maybe you could take a look at a more surprising heavy walker, Chase Headley. He’s walking about 16% of the time and has a sub-10% career walk rate. There are reasons to believe his step forward in the category, however. Headley is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever. He’s even swinging less than ever overall. Both of these numbers are probably reliable given his number of plate appearances so far this year, too. A little bit of power, a little bit of speed, and a lot of walks – at a tough position no less.

If the other side of the corner infield is more your bag, Adam LaRoche is putting forth similar plate discipline statistics and a career-high walk rate of his own. What’s particularly nice about LaRoches’ work, despite looking so mediocre overall, is that he’s swinging less than ever and making more contact than ever (measured by both contact % and swinging strike rate). His contact is even about as ‘good’ as ever if line drive rate can be believed. It seems to suggest that he’s getting choosier in his old age. We know that power stabilizes last, so if he can get his ISO back over .200 again, he might be able to pair it with one of his best OBPs. He’ll have to hit a few more fly balls to do that.

A few newcomers deserve some love. Jonathan Herrera doesn’t have a ton skills but can take a walk. Jonny Gomes is pushing his three-true-outcome work to a new level. Ben Francisco is one of those guys that is mediocre all-around, but he’s got a double-digit walk rate. Jack Hannahan is a flawed player, but he’s had those double-digit walk rates his whole career. Luke Scott comes to mind.

One last note about some players that might be walking more in the future. Chipper Jones has a decent OBP, and is walking about 10% of the time, but he’s walked much more than that in his career, and his plate discipline stats tell us that he’s playing just about the same. Expect a few more free passes in the future as he shows an OBP more like the .409 OBP he’s had since 2008. Nick Markakis may not have Jason Catania’s vote when it comes to standard leagues, but he will be useful in OBP leagues shortly. He has a career walk rate right at 10% but hasn’t managed an average walk rate this year. This despite a reach rate under his career number and a first-strike and zone percentage under his career rates as well. Once you add a double-digit walk rate to his overall strong play, he makes a good acquisition in linear weights and OBP leagues alike.

Happy hunting.

Last year, Gordon Beckham hit .310/.380/.497 with six home runs and no stolen bases after the break. If he hadn’t done so, none of us would be talking about him as a buy-low prospect at all. There are just too many signs going in the wrong direction to be confident that he’s a lock for another bounce-back this year.

Let’s zoom out on his career – this year’s numbers may not yet be in a large enough sample, but there are some worrisome trends that have continued so far in 2011. Since his rookie year, there’s been a drop across the board in many key categories. He showed nice pop in his rookie season – .190 ISO is above average for all players, and certainly above-average for second basemen. Too bad that number dropped to .126 last year and .104 so far this year. He walked at an above-average rate in his debut (9.5%) and has since dropped to 7.4% and now 4.3% this year. He stole seven bases and was caught four times in 2009. He stole four bases and was caught six times last year. He’s stolen one and been caught once this year. He swung and missed at 9% of his pitches at first, 9.3% last year, and 12% this year. 10.4% of his fly balls went for home runs, then 6.9% last year, and now 4.9%.

It’s ugly, right? The more reliable numbers this year are just as bad: his plate discipline is shot right now. That swinging strike rate is almost in a reliable sample. Contact percentage is in a reliable sample, and he’s showing his career-worst in that category (79.9% career, 76% this year). Since batters have been swinging at pitches outside the zone at different rates over the past year, we can normalize that category to see that Beckham has gotten worse there, too: He swung at pitches outside the zone at 98% of league average in 2009, 110% last year, and 124% this year. His contact on balls in the zone has dropped 6% down from league average in that category.

Put it all together and the picture is ugly. Over his career he’s shown less power and speed with every new year. His plate discipline has gotten worse, too. Add to those career trends some worrisome early-season problems laying off bad pitches and making contact with good pitches, and you have a player to risky to invest in, even at a buy-low level. In deeper leagues, you have to hold on to him in case another second-half surge is coming. Given his position eligibility, you might want to even hold him on your bench in standard leagues.

But he’s probably not a strong buy low option.

Here are the top 30 2B in order and broken up into tiers

Tier 1 – Expected to be one of the top 2B in the league and meeting expectations.

Robinson Cano

We had Cano as the top rated 2B this season and he is #2 overall right now behind Zobrist. He is hitting for power (8 home runs), average (0.308) and has even swiped a couple of bases. He only had 3 SB last season. My concern always with Cano is his miniscule walk rate which currently stands at 2.7%.

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At the beginning of the season, the Rotographs authors compiled a composite ranking of 2B. After a month of the season completed, here is a look at how that initial ranking compare to the players’ production so far.

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