Archive for Roto

Now that one month of the season is in the books, it’s a fine time to check which hitters have improved their projections the most. To do this, I’ll refer to OOPSY rest of season (ROS) projections, a system I introduced at FanGraphs this offseason. OOPSY ROS is updated each day. Even though I focus on OOPSY ROS in this article, most of the referenced players have improved their projections across the different systems available at FanGraphs. For each player, I’ll also offer commentary on where I’d draft them in a standard 15-team Main Event league that was starting today, informed by a healthy mix of the FanGraphs auction calculator using OOPSY ROS and vibes.

Bear in mind that, across all projection systems, pre-2025 data still weighs much more heavily than 2025 data as pre-2025 covers a much larger sample of data. In fact, a single season typically never comprises more than half of the weight in a projection system, as projection systems usually weigh at least three years of historical data. Nonetheless, enough of the season is now in the books for certain players to have meaningfully altered their projections. The numbers referenced in this piece were collected on April 26th. I’ll take a look at pitchers in my next piece.

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Pitchers can change. Pitchers can change. Pitchers can change. If you don’t believe that, read those first three sentences aloud, preferably in a loud voice in a public space. Hopefully, it will be heard by a fellow baseball lover, and boom, you have a new friend to debate the topic with. You can chat about whether changes in the way pitchers approach opposite-handed hitters matter in the grand scheme of the season. In this article, I’ll present five pitchers from each matchup combination who have increased their strikeout rates against opposite-handed hitters.

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This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything.  I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.

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Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.

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The splitter’s usage among starting pitchers reached a 14-year high in the 2024 season when it hit a 3.2% usage league-wide. In the past four seasons, no qualified pitcher has taken the top splitter usage trophy away from Kevin Gausman who averaged around 36% usage from 2021 to 2024. Taijuan Walker came close in 2023 when he threw his splitter 33.2% of the time, yet it wasn’t enough to top the king. 2025 seems like the year in which Gausman will lose his crown. Roki Sasaki will be one of the most-watched pitchers in 2025 and according to some, will showcase one of the best splitters in the world. How often he’ll use that pitch remains to be seen. Shota Imanaga (30.6% usage) came close to King Gausman’s mark in 2024. In Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 90 innings pitched in 2024, he threw his splitter 24.2% of the time. What will happen in 2025? Dare I suggest the league-wide splitter usage continues its growth and finishes at 4.1%? It’s possible. Only 12 qualified pitchers threw splitters in 2024. In this edition of “Know Your Averages”, I’ll bring in any pitcher who threw at least 45 splitters and compare their plate discipline metrics.

Fastballs: Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters

Breaking and Offspeed Pitches: Sliders | Changeups | Curveballs | Splitters | Sweepers
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Are you a hitter who can’t time up the fastball? Feeling over-powered? Not having your best day? Just wait it out, the hook will come eventually. Keep that weight back and search for that little bump, that little loop, as the pitch comes towards the plate. Wait on it, wait on it, wait on it….strike! It’s not as easy as it sounds. Of the 115 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2024, 76 threw a curveball. Some of them got blasted; Miles Mikolas, Pablo López, Jameson Taillon. Some of them did the blasting; Framber Valdez, Seth Lugo, Max Fried. Take a look at some finer details below and see if you can find a few pitchers with positive curveball metrics for the back end of your fantasy rotation.

Fastballs: Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters

Breaking and Offspeed Pitches: Sliders | Changeups | Curveballs | Splitters | Sweepers
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Fastball! Fastball! Inside-fastball!….changeup. It’s almost soothing, isn’t it? The hitter gets some relief from the loud, scary, onslaught of heat to a nice, easy, soft-dropping cambio. But don’t be fooled, that soft-cuddly change of pace can be absolutely devastating. It can send you right back to the dugout looking, and that’s if you’re lucky. If you’re unlucky, you just whiffed so hard a little snot came out of your nose, you made a loud grunting noise and possibly pulled a muscle in your lower back. Some pitchers utilize the changeup by only throwing it to opposite-handed hitters when they need it. Some throw it with regularity, lulling hitters to sleep. There’s no perfect way to use it, but a decent changeup in a pitcher’s arsenal can be a difference-maker. Let’s continue the “Know Your Averages” series with a pitch that’s thrown in the zone less often, rarely called for a strike, and chased like a rat terrier going after a….well…let’s just get to it.

Fastballs: Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters

Breaking and Offspeed Pitches: Sliders | Changeups | Curveballs | Splitters | Sweepers
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Two things can happen when your opinions differ from the fantasy baseball internet majority. One, you prove to be right and get to “Nah-nah, nah-nah, boo-boo!” all over the place. Or two, you look foolish in front of all your computer friends and have to live with them, not being mad, just disappointed. This time last year I wrote the first episode of The Market and Me and will forever have to live with being higher on Patrick Wisdom than most. He finished 2024 as the 75th-best third baseman at -$32.40. Wisdom wasn’t the only one. Anthony Rendon finished even worse at -$35.40, the 88th-best third baseman in 2024. I was “higher” on both of those players than the market, but the market didn’t have to “rank” 40+ third basemen. I wasn’t necessarily high on Wisdom and Rendon, they were at the very bottom of my ranks. Still, they fell far outside of the imaginary line you can draw through the blue points that make up the relationship between ADP and my rank order, like the way Matt Shaw and Justin Turner do below. The “Market and Me” is an exercise in analyzing my own rankings, looking for where I may need to correct, where I may need to erase and re-order, and where I may plant my flag in the ground.

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Tanner Scott signed with the Dodgers earlier this week and you may be wondering, does that make him a top 10 closer going into the 2025 season? Certainly, it must change his pre-trade auction calculator (Steamer) ranking of 14th, right? Roster Resource lists Scott as the Dodger closer for now, but Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and maybe even Evan Phillips may cut in on his save counts. And what if the Dodgers score so many runs with their high-powered offense that Scott doesn’t get the opportunity to earn a save often enough? Does being on a really good team limit a team’s save accumulation? Read the rest of this entry »

Many indicators are pointing to Adolis García’s power declining. If so, his fantasy value may be careening down a cliff. Read the rest of this entry »