The back end of the Arizona bullpen was a mess last year. They tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in the league. J.J. Putz was spotty early in the season as the closer, and Heath Bell struggled in the role as well early in the summer. Brad Ziegler finally brought some stability to the role as he saved 13 games and blew only two after taking over the role in early July. But the D’Backs front office obviously didn’t feel comfortable with Ziegler maintaining the closer job, so they acquired Addison Reed in the offseason.

The bullpen should be much better this year, in part because of the added depth Reed gives them. But they should also be better because of some positive regression for Putz and David Hernandez.

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Adding Holds as a category to any fantasy league opens up a new pool of pitchers to the mix. No longer are teams focused just on just starters and closers, now middle relievers have more value. Holds are an impossible category to predict, but today I will give some ideas about guesstimating Holds and some pitchers who may accumulate them in 2014.

If a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead, he gets a hold.

MLB Miscellany: Rules, regulations and statistics

Two things must exist for a pitcher to a get a Hold, opportunity and talent. Starting with opportunity: Holds are just like Saves, the manager must trust the pitcher enough to put them in a Hold situation. Two types of pitchers are given Hold opportunities, stud setup men and LOOGYs. A setup man will pitch the seventh and/or eighth since their peripheral data is similar to a closer. They will throw one inning and be done. LOOGY’s will be used to get one or two tough left-handed batters out and be done.

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No one will replace Mariano Rivera. In 2009, the top-10 relievers in WAR with a minimum of 20 saves were Jonathan Broxton, Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, Rivera, Joe Nathan, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell, David Aardsma, and Joakim Soria. In 2013, only Nathan of those players rejoined Rivera in the top-10. Six others no longer close. And that is just since 2009. Rivera was already an established, consistent closer a decade before.

That unprecedented track record of consistent effectiveness makes big shoes for an heir to fill. David Robertson has already suffered from those unreasonable expectations. After taking over for Rivera following his season-ending knee injury in 2012, Robertson’s quick blown save started the discussion of his lack of a closer mentality. Within the week, Robertson strained an oblique muscle, and he never had another chance to close as veteran Rafael Soriano took the job and ran with it.

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Writer’s Note: Perkins ranked 8th on Zach Sanders’ 2013 closer rankings.

Glen Perkins’ rebirth as a pitcher has been nothing short of amazing. Perkins’ days as a starter were nothing to write home about, even when his home isn’t more than about a half hour drive from Target Field.

There’s a reason Perkins’ career K/9 rate is still under 7 — 6.85 to be precise — despite three consecutive years of 9.5-plus K/9. As a starter, Perkins was a bulldog who liked to work inside with a fastball that routinely checked in somewhere between 89-91, sometimes reaching 92 on average. Armed with that, a changeup, and a curve (and later a slider in lieu of the curve), Perkins compiled a 19-12 career record with a 4.81 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a Blackburn-esque 4.7 K/9. Read the rest of this entry »

This must feel like déjà vu all over again for Joakim Soria. Back in April of 2003, Soria had his first Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch for two full seasons. He scratched and clawed his way back to form and by the end of 2007, he was one of the better closers in baseball. Fast forward to 2012, he had his second Tommy John in March and scratched and clawed his way back to form, actually appearing in 26 games in 2013, although he played second fiddle to Joe Nathan at the back of the bullpen.

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One relief pitcher trait I like to have on hand during draft season is how much of a split has a pitcher displayed over his career against right- and left-handed hitters. Most teams don’t want their closer to have a large split because with all hands on deck in the ninth, the opposing manager will use up all his available platoon options. The reason a pitcher may or may not have a split may be many, but truthfully I don’t have time to evaluate each relief pitcher in detail (and still stay married) so I use this nice little cheat sheet.

I examined which pitchers have historically small or large handedness splits and how much to take them into account when valuing the relief pitcher for a closer’s role.

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In the summer of 2009, Brandon Kintzler wasn’t a highly-touted prospect cruising through the Milwaukee Brewers’ farm system. He was just another former 40th-round pick, toiling through his third-consecutive season in the independent leagues and trying to catch the eye of any professional organization.

The Brewers fortuitously had a scout at the American Association’s All-Star Game in Grand Prairie, Texas, where they saw Kintzler pitch two scoreless innings for the North Division in which he struck out three and walked no one. The two sides quickly agreed on a contract, and just one season later at age-25, the right-hander made his major-league debut against the Chicago Cubs.

Although he began to turn heads in Milwaukee during the 2011 season, a season-ending arm injury set him back once again. Rehab proved difficult. He continued to feel discomfort in his elbow in spring training the following year, but all nerve tests and MRIs repeatedly came back clean showing no issues. Doctors eventually diagnosed him with a strained forearm. It took the majority of the season for him to regain his arm strength, but when he did, he worked his way back to the majors and appeared in 14 games in September and October.

The 2013 season found Kintzler completely healthy for the first time in almost two years, and he took full advantage. He posted a 2.54 FIP in 77.0 innings and eventually wiggled his way into the primary set-up role by the end of the campaign. The strikeout numbers are not what fantasy owners would prefer, as he only managed a 6.78 K/9 strikeout rate, but he induced a myriad of ground balls, kept the baseball in the ballpark and issued very few free passes. That resulted in a supremely effective, if unspectacular, season.

While fellow right-hander Jim Henderson possesses a firm grip on the closer’s role in Milwaukee, Kintzler is primed for a full season of high-leverage usage. He should handle the eighth inning for manager Ron Roenicke, and I’m expecting another season of significant success. It may even be fantasy-relevant success, too.

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Both Tanner Scheppers and Drew Smyly have a chance to be starting pitchers in 2014. Scheppers has a shot at the rotation because Derek Holland is out until the midway point after injuring his knee while supposedly playing with his dog. And Smyly is even more likely to make the Detroit rotation because the Tigers inexplicably traded Doug Fister for some questionable young pieces.

They both pitched exclusively as relievers last season and each threw about 76 innings. Scheppers has never started at the major league level and only started eight games in the minor leagues. Smyly pitched exclusively as a starter in the minor leagues, and his first 16 major league appearances in 2012 were as a starter. So Smyly has more experience as a starter and a higher likelihood of actually being in the rotation, but because I’d like this post to easily surpass 500 words and because of the alliterative title they’re last names allowed me to use, let’s consider their viability as starters together. Read the rest of this entry »

When the news broke that the Tigers signed veteran closer Joe Nathan, Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski also announced that the team and the man who finished the 2013 season as their closer, Joaquin Benoit, would be parting ways, citing that the 35-year old righthander was no longer “a fit for the Tigers.” With that, Benoit jumped into the free agent pool and came away with a two-year, $15.5 million contract from the San Diego Padres where he is expected to fill the exact same role he filled for Detroit when he first signed with them back in 2011; a bridge between starter and closer with the potential to close out games, if needed. The deal works well for both parties as Benoit gets a contract comparable to what free agent closers have been getting and the Padres get a replacement for, and upgrade to, Luke Gregerson. Read the rest of this entry »

Even if you haven’t been playing in leagues that value holds, it is hard to forgive for missing Ryan Cook’s past two seasons. Since the start of 2012 season, Cook has accumulated a 2.30/2.82/3.59 ERA/FIP/xFIP. His 3.14 SIERA for the past two seasons is just as impressive. Saves or not, those peripherals plus his 25.3% strikeout rate equates to a strong fantasy bullpen member.

Despite the fact that Cook ranked outside the top 50 of Zach Sanders’ 2013 End of Season Relief Pitcher Rankings, Cook has several positives going for him when looking ahead to this season. Last year his average fastball of 95 mph rated as the 24th fastest among qualified relievers. He is primarily a fastball/slider guy, though he will mix in the occasional change-up and sinker. As per BrooksBaseball.net, a table showing Cook’s pitch selection for all of last season can be found below.
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