We’re in the midst of the preseason in which the vast majority of fantasy leagues will be hosting their fantasy drafts, and fantasy owners everywhere are looking for tips and tricks to give them a strategic edge over the competition. Luckily, not everyone in your league is smart enough to read RotoGraphs on a regular basis. While I’m not certain it’s the equivalent of fantasy baseball PEDs, it seems damn close.

Since we’ve now established the apparent correlation between RotoGraphs and fantasy steroids, here are a few thoughts to stuff in your back pocket on a pair of pitchers, one concerning a guy who should be drafted in every league and one who will be lucky to have a 5% ownership rate on Opening Day:

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A few years ago I broke down the disabled list (DL) chances for starting pitchers (39%). I have finally gotten around to making an initial stab at relief pitcher DL values.

The initial problem I have with relief pitchers is defining them. I didn’t want to be looking at pitchers who split their time between a relief and starting role. I decided the pitchers needed to have at least 95% of their appearances as a reliever. Also, I didn’t know what to set the minimum innings limit to. Here is a chart of the DL% depending on the number of innings pitched the previous season. Matched season data from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013 was used.
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I think we’re the last ones to finish up. We’re so slow, Eno apparently already dropped the full spreadsheet. But, really, don’t you just want a thread where you can bag on how the Rockies claim that LaTroy Hawkins may open the season ahead of Rex Brothers on the depth chart?

Reliever rankings come courtesy of the guys (Alan, Ben, and Colin) who’ll once again be on Bullpen Report duty. You aren’t going to quibble with the top six or so (although you might want to shuffle up the order). Where things get really interesting is wading into the quagmire of guys past RP20 or so. As always, relievers look to be a volatile breed. Do you look for guys with weaker peripherals but have the tentative “closer” tag or do you draft for peripherals and assume your guy will float to the top as the season grinds along? And who knows who Houston is going to tab as their next closer? Are you going to be the one rolling the dice on Josh Fields, Chad Qualls, or (insert reliever X here)? (Aside: it’s not me.)

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Each spring, a handful of storylines grab fantasy owners’ attention due to the vast difference in potential value on draft day. The stories could revolve around a spring position battle or the potential of a top prospect to steal a roster spot with a big spring camp. Sometimes its a rehabbing player who isn’t certain to be ready for opening day.

Perhaps an under-reported fantasy storyline is unfolding in St. Louis, and it doesn’t involve top prospect Oscar Taveras. The Cardinals suffered a blow to their starting rotation when left-hander Jaime Garcia experienced a setback with his surgically-repaired shoulder. He’s currently seeking a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, according to ESPN.

The story isn’t really that Garcia re-injured his shoulder. Given his unfortunate injury history, the news was not shocking. It’s the repercussions of the injury that are interesting for fantasy owners. Right-handers Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez now find themselves locked in a battle for the fifth starter role. And for the latter, the fireballing Carlos Martinez, such a transition to the starting rotation could significantly increase his fantasy value for the 2014 season.

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You may remember last year’s Detroit bullpen as being something of a mess, especially once Bruce Rondon proved that he was not going to be able to grab the closer’s job right out of camp as the Tigers as hoped. They tried to bring back Jose Valverde, with disastrous results, Phil Coke got a brief shot, and they picked up Jose Veras for depth, but the majority of saves ended up going to Joaquin Benoit, who proved effective in the role after being bumped up from his setup man spot.

Now, Benoit is off to San Diego. Veras is with the Cubs. Valverde is trying to make the Mets. Drew Smyly is in the rotation, replacing Doug Fister. Darin Downs is in Houston. Of the five most-used Tiger relievers in 2013, three are no longer in the Detroit bullpen, replaced by several new names. It’s a bullpen in transition. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »

Foreshadowed by my rather impotent title, this isn’t a strategy likely to bring you home the gold. This isn’t about who to take in the first round, or building your rotation, or sleeper picks. Or even post-hype sleeper picks, to be thorough. Rather, I spend probably far too much time thinking about that last pick, or last few to be precise. When half of your league has checked out from the stress of the draft, or the number of adult beverages they’ve consumed during that span, this is your chance to stockpile opportunity.

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While the Orioles are making headlines with signings of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, it’s time to take a look at another aspect of the team in which they’ve made some changes. Gone is Jim Johnson, a two-time 50-save closer for the O’s and while they were all set to bring in free agent Grant Balfour, they were unhappy with the results of his physical and opted to fill the vacancy in-house. So let’s take a look at what Baltimore’s bullpen is looking like right now. Read the rest of this entry »

As the Philadelphia Phillies look to improve a bullpen that finished 26th in baseball last year in WAR, they’ll hope that their two setup men are able to stay on the field and a collection of young pitchers matures as the team enters a rebuilding era. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, there isn’t is a lot to choose from among Philly’s reliever corps as spring training gets underway.

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It’s a good thing readers aren’t able to leave comments on the Fangraphs+ blurbs because I botched the blurb I wrote on Washington’s closer, Rafael Soriano. In that blurb I stated that Soriano is “a lock to be drafted as a top five closer.” As it turns out, not so much. Soriano is currently going 13th among closers in NFBC drafts. I either underestimated the ability of drafters to see some of the red flags, or I forgot that ADP is heavily influenced by the order in which players are listed in draft rooms and that the people doing the listing would see his red flags.

What are those red flags? In reality, all the peripheral numbers that declined last year for Soriano are all tied to his ability to miss bats. His velocity was down which helped hitters make more contact on pitches in the zone than ever before which led to his swing strike rate dropping which obviously led to fewer strikeouts. To be exact, his strikeout rate fell 6.3%. If you’re looking for a positive sign, his fastball velocity got back close to his normal speed after April and May.

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Over at our depth charts, we have 13 different relievers listed for the Mets. 13! And that doesn’t even include Kyle Farnsworth, but it does include Jose Valverde and Erik Goeddel and Steven Matz and Jeff Walters, and it’s okay if you want to admit now that you’ve never heard of two of those names. It’s not pretty, but for a Mets team that probably isn’t going to be contending for anything seriously in 2014, it makes sense. Throwing money at relievers at this point in the team’s development is often money wasted, and so Sandy Alderson and friends will instead try to go with what they’ve got.

But from a fantasy perspective, that makes it difficult. It’s hard to know for sure who is even going to be in this bullpen, much less contributing — I imagine it’ll be something of a revolving door all season long — and that limits fantasy utility. Still, someone has to get saves, and we can start with the likely closer and go from there.

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