On Mondays I write about daily fantasy strategy. On Wednesdays I’m supposed to write about closers. To be frank, I enjoy the topic I have been assigned for Mondays much, much more. I despise chasing saves (as I discussed a couple of weeks ago), and the guys doing the Bullpen Report really have relievers covered. But a commenter on one of my recent daily fantasy strategy posts asked me a question that involved both daily fantasy strategy and closers. The commenter wanted to know how viable it is to use closers in daily contests.

Closers are usually the cheapest players available in daily contests. In today’s contests on Draftstreet, the 34 cheapest players are relievers and only 2 relievers have a price tag above $3,000 when the average salary of all non-relievers is just over $6,000. The obvious reason is that relievers are the only players that we don’t know whether they’ll play before their game starts. That uncertainty drives the price down and is why I’ve ignored using closers to this point. But I may have been doing it wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

• With David Robertson heading to the DL, Shawn Kelley will be taking over closing duties in New York.  Kelley is effective and can generate lots of swings and misses but also gets many outs via the fly ball (only a 30.5% GB% in his career), which can obviously lead to occasional rough outings, fast. I’m not trying to scare owners away from Kelley but it’s important to not just check his K-Rates and quickly label him a great option. With that said, I would still run to pick up Kelley while Robertson remains on the shelf. I’ve been touting him in the early part of the season but Dellin Betances should be moving up the bullpen chain as well although I think the Yankees might go to Matt Thornton before him at this point. Still, Betances has looked impressive thus far, striking out five batters in three innings pitched with his high 90’s gas.

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Welcome to RotoNotGraphs. Despite the whimsical title, we have an actual topic to discuss today – who is throwing very hard?

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• While I was speculating that Bobby Parnell’s neck was the cause of his issues and decreased velocity, it was actually his arm (shocker) as he has a partially torn ligament in his right elbow. Parnell is avoiding surgery for now, resting for a few weeks before being reevaluated but this doesn’t look good. I would still stash Parnell on the DL if you have him, but I wouldn’t bet on Parnell making a full recovery, closing game for the Mets this season anytime soon. As he did in Detoit last year, Papa Grande is back and closing games for the Mets. Don’t let Jose Valverde confuse you, he’s not a good pitcher but he’s healthy and in line for saves, go grab him now if you haven’t already. Behind Valverde should be Jeurys Familia, who wasn’t effective last night, Gonzalez Germen and even Kyle Farnsworth. For now it’s Valverde without an obvious choice as second in line. However, if Papa Grande fails and this goes to a committee type approach, it might not even be worth the trouble.

• Speaking of closer-by-committees (and horrible segues) that’s what the Astros are working with, narrowing their choices down to three – Chad Qualls, Matt Albers and Josh Fields. In tonight’s game against the Yankees, Bo Porter went with Qualls in the eighth with a six run lead. Qualls ended up giving up an inherited run as well as one of his own and Matt Albers finished the game in the ninth in a non save situation. It’s hard to glean anything of value from this one game besides the fact that all three should factor into saves in Houston. As of now, I’m keeping Qualls first as he’s probably the best of the bunch but this isn’t a particularly satisfying situation for baseball viewers or fantasy owners alike.

• Brian Wilson will be placed on the DL with elbow problems and nerve irritation according to Ken Gurnick. In his place, I suspect Chris Perez will be the primary set up man but Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell, who pitched the eighth inning tonight, will also be in the mix. Chris Perez had a rough go in Cleveland last year but if you squint hard enough there was a 3.83 xFIP and 3.40 SIERA last year. Perez isn’t flashy enough to own for ratios or strikeouts, but anyone who is one pitch away from closing deserves to be on watch.

• Holds Alert: He didn’t receive a hold today as the Yankees were behind all game, but Dellin Betances looked mighty impressive for the Yankees in his inning of work, striking out two batters in a perfect inning. Betances’ velocity was in the high 90s, reaching a peak of 99.3 mph. He might be lower on the totem poll now in New York but with only Shawn Kelley and Matt Thornton ahead of him, it won’t take much for Betances to be a main setup option, receiving higher leverage holds on the reg.  David Carpenter got a hold in the eighth inning tonight for the Braves, although he gave up a run. I suspect Jordan Walden is still next in line for the Braves, but it’s worth noting as each situation plays itself out early on this season.

• Quick Hits: Steve Cishek pitched a perfect inning for his first save of the year. Kenley Jansen was far from perfect allowing three guys to reach base, but he didn’t allow a run en route to his first save. Craig Kimbrel pulled a Kimbrel, striking out the side for the save. Sergio Santos tried his best to blow the game but barely held on for his first save of the year as Casey Janssen remains on the DL. Santos is undoubtedly the closer with Janssen out (although Brett Cecil was warming up tonight) but if he continues to struggle look for Steve Delabar to get a look. And for those disgruntled Janssen owners, Santos’ struggles means Janssen would be more likely to reclaim the job upon his return.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

You know, I can advocate for different types of leagues. I can talk about the pros and cons of head-to-head, and how redraft leagues are great for the refresh, and about deep leagues and shallow leagues. It’s my job!

But when it comes to playing, to the leagues I actually join, the rubber hits the road. In other words, I vote with my wallet when I join these leagues, because I’m spending actual time and energy in this way. So I thought I’d look through my leagues and see what kinds of leagues I like. And while I’m there, I might as well count up my pitchers so you can see what sorts of arms I’m investing in. My arms and my leagues, and now you know what I *really* like.

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Bruce Rondon is just the latest hard throwing pitcher to need Tommy John surgery (TJS). Besides Rondon, it seems like just about every pitcher who throws over 100 mph ends up needing repairs on their ulnar collateral ligament. Neftali Feliz. Brian Wilson. Stephen Strasburg. Matt Harvey. I decided to look at the injury rates of pitchers who can throw the magical 100 mph.

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Spring training is nearing its end (thankfully) and as managers finalize the end of their roster, the last bullpen spots are being decided. Here are a few items from today:

• We learned yesterday that Joakim Soria would be closing games in Texas and now we found out that Neftali Feliz was optioned to Triple-A. From GM Jon Daniels:  “He’s healthy and his work ethic has been solid, but he needs some work and the best place to get him that is in Round Rock right now. I expect he’ll be back as soon as he’s ready to help us.” When that will be I’m not entirely sure, and I don’t know if the Rangers are either. If Feliz is healthy as Daniels says and only throwing 91-93 MPH then he likely won’t be the force that he was the first time he was a closer in Texas. Feliz certainly doesn’t have to touch 100 MPH on his fastball to be effective, but this current version of Feliz isn’t the same pitcher we’re used to seeing. I don’t doubt that Feliz will be back in Texas but I also think that he’ll remain a set up option at best, with Soria holding closing duties for the duration of the season.

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We’re in the midst of the preseason in which the vast majority of fantasy leagues will be hosting their fantasy drafts, and fantasy owners everywhere are looking for tips and tricks to give them a strategic edge over the competition. Luckily, not everyone in your league is smart enough to read RotoGraphs on a regular basis. While I’m not certain it’s the equivalent of fantasy baseball PEDs, it seems damn close.

Since we’ve now established the apparent correlation between RotoGraphs and fantasy steroids, here are a few thoughts to stuff in your back pocket on a pair of pitchers, one concerning a guy who should be drafted in every league and one who will be lucky to have a 5% ownership rate on Opening Day:

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A few years ago I broke down the disabled list (DL) chances for starting pitchers (39%). I have finally gotten around to making an initial stab at relief pitcher DL values.

The initial problem I have with relief pitchers is defining them. I didn’t want to be looking at pitchers who split their time between a relief and starting role. I decided the pitchers needed to have at least 95% of their appearances as a reliever. Also, I didn’t know what to set the minimum innings limit to. Here is a chart of the DL% depending on the number of innings pitched the previous season. Matched season data from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013 was used.
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I think we’re the last ones to finish up. We’re so slow, Eno apparently already dropped the full spreadsheet. But, really, don’t you just want a thread where you can bag on how the Rockies claim that LaTroy Hawkins may open the season ahead of Rex Brothers on the depth chart?

Reliever rankings come courtesy of the guys (Alan, Ben, and Colin) who’ll once again be on Bullpen Report duty. You aren’t going to quibble with the top six or so (although you might want to shuffle up the order). Where things get really interesting is wading into the quagmire of guys past RP20 or so. As always, relievers look to be a volatile breed. Do you look for guys with weaker peripherals but have the tentative “closer” tag or do you draft for peripherals and assume your guy will float to the top as the season grinds along? And who knows who Houston is going to tab as their next closer? Are you going to be the one rolling the dice on Josh Fields, Chad Qualls, or (insert reliever X here)? (Aside: it’s not me.)

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