• Jenrry Mejia entered tonight’s game in the eighth inning for a four out save, and although he got four outs he also blew the one-run lead allowing a run and five baserunners. Before tonight’s outing Mejia had six consecutive scoreless appearances stretching over 6.2 innings. Mejia had a bumpy road in early June but has looked good of late and his job is still relatively secure.
• Quick Recap from last night: Grant Balfour picked up the save last night with Jake McGee pitching the eighth. This is still a committee and McGee is the best reliever so he’d still be my favored option in the Rays pen for fantasy. Joe Smith picked up two saves, his eighth and ninth of the season and it doesn’t seem like Grilli is taking over the ninth in the near future. Koji Uehara got the loss entering the ninth in a tie game and although he said he’s “fatigued” he was also available to pitch tonight so no injury worries, yet. If Uehera can’t close it’s unclear who is next in line. Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Miller have been better than Mujica, but Mujica received an opportunity this year. Of course Mujica pitched poorly in an inning tonight and I’d wager the Sox would go to a committee type if Uehara’s fatigue caused him to miss any time. Addison Reed did what the Diamondbacks have done all year, blown. Hector Rondon also recorded a save, his 11th of the season and after a few hiccups last week that situation is going from Red –> Yellow.
A few weeks ago I took a look at the best fantasy relievers of this season, but since then I’ve looked at the best fantasy hitters and starters over the past calendar year, and I wanted to complete the series. The series started because I wanted to give out my All-Star picks and make the point that we should base our All-Star votes on what has happened since the last All-Star game, not just what has happened so far this year. So below I’ve got the seven relievers from each league I’d have on my ballot. But first a few caveats.
First, I’m aware that the past calendar year split includes some games that were pre-All-Star game in 2013. Second, I’m aware that fantasy value doesn’t necessarily equal All-Star. And finally, I’m not exactly using the traditional categories to calculate fantasy value. I prefer using quality starts to wins, so I’m only using four categories for relievers. And I hate saves and have always wished shutdowns minus meltdowns would replace saves. So I’m using SD-MD along with strikeouts and the normal ratio categories. Here are my All-Star picks followed by some token fantasy advice to qualify this post for the Rotographs blog. Read the rest of this entry »
• Jake Arrieta was four outs away from throwing a no-no before Stephen Drew singled and at 120 pitches, Pedro Strop came in to get the final out of the eighth inning. Hector Rondon entered for the ninth and pitched around a lead off single to record his 10th save of the season. Rondon has had a few flare ups of late but he’s still the Cubs closer and should continue to get save chances as they come, especially if he pitches more like he did tonight. However if he struggles again soon or is put on the trading block, look for Neil Ramirez to fill in for saves.
• Dellin Betances finally showed he was human allowing two-walks and an unearned run in the eighth inning tonight against the Rays. With the “off” outing Betances still supports a 1.69 xFIP with a 14.25 K/9 and remains the likely best non-save option in fantasy baseball. Robertson finished the eighth, allowing Betances’ inherited run to score and stayed on to throw a scoreless frame in ninth as well.
• Jake McGee entered tonight’s game with a one-run lead in the eighth and pitched around a couple of base hits for a scoreless inning, lowering his ERA to 1.24. Even though a couple of lefties were due up in the ninth, it was Joel Peralta who came on for the save that he quickly blew on a home run by an unlikely source in Brian Roberts. This is obvioulsy good news for McGee owners. He has received the last two save opportunities for the Rays and given Peralta’s performance tonight, I fully expect McGee to receive the next opportunity as well.
• There wasn’t a save situation in the Nationals game today but Drew Storen pitched a scoreless seventh inning. Tyler Clippard is likely next in line in the pecking order but Drew Storen is having a nice comeback season after a down year in 2013. His 1.03 ERA is likely to regress but Storen is keeping the ball in the park and avoiding the free pass. There are likely more exciting non-save options for strikeouts and even ratio help, but in Saves+Holds leagues, on a competitive Nationals team that should have a few leads to protect, Storen is certainly a sound option.
• Sean Doolittle has had an incredible season a forgettable June 30th. Doolittle started the ninth in a 4-1 game, but ended up allowing a grand slam walk-off homer to Rajai Davis for his third loss of the season. This was actually Doolittle’s second blown save in a row but even after tonight’s blowup, Doolittle still has an ERA under three with an insane 57/2 strikeout to walk ratio and remains a top tier closer in both real life and fantasy baseball.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
• Sergio Romo is out as closer and Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla will be part of the closing committee for now. Romo is still expected to pitch in some sort of setup role but Casilla and Affeldt should be receiving the save opportunities in the meantime. Romo hasn’t been as bad as his 5.17 ERA would suggest but even a 3.93 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA is worse than we expected from him. Romo’s never been a big velocity guy but his fastball and slider have actually been a little better than last year. Also, although Romo’s K% have fallen the last few years his 14.2% SwStr% shows he can still get some whiffs, even if it hasn’t presented itself with his pedestrian K-rates this year. Barring a hidden injury I’d expect Romo to regain his job this summer but it’s Casilla and Affeldt for now. As a lefty/righty combo, gameflow should determine who sees the save on a given night. Both Affeldt (1.33 ) and Casilla (1.17) are owners of some shiny ERA’s and I would reccomend any team in need of saves to snag them if they’re available on the wire. Jean Machi is also having a nice year and could figure into some saves but he’s given up runs in his last two outings and Bochy mentioned Casilla and Affeldt as Romo’s replacements.
• Ronald Belisario blew his fifth save of the season tonight allowing a pinch hit three-run homer to Chris Davis. Belisario was on fire from late April to late May but has struggled of late allowing 11 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched. His ERA is now 5.50 but a 3.17/3.34 FIP/xFIP show that the sky isn’t quite falling. Still, an ERA over 5 while converting just 7/11 save opportunities isn’t how you hold a job as closer. As of this writing I haven’t heard anything about Belisario’s status as closer so I assume his job is still relatively safe but keep an eye on Zach Putnam. Putnam also gave up a homer tonight and his peripherals aren’t any better than Belisario but a few more blown saves could force Ventura to make a change.
I’ve wanted to write about Steven Okert for quite some time now. There’s a strange little line I walk writing about prospects from a fantasy perspective. Ostensibly, I should write about prospects who are likely to make an impact in fantasy baseball in the relatively near-future seeing as, well, that’s my job. Why would I write about a relief pitcher in High-A?
But now, dear reader, the stars have aligned in such a way that I can finally write my long-awaited article about Steven Okert. He’s in the news for his standout performance in the clumsily named California-Carolina League All-Star Game (I recommend clicking that link if only to see the high level of swagger Okert possesses while rocking his replica championship belt), but the internet at large seemingly has no idea who he is. Seriously, do a Google search and see what you can learn about the kid. Spoiler alert: It’s not much. So there’s Solid Reason No. 1 for me to write about Steven Okert.
• Koji Uehara had a day off after throwing on three consecutive days and Edward Mujica came on for his second save of the year. Mujica has had a largely forgettable year and after tonight’s perfect inning his ERA dropped all the way to 6.04. Although I’d still say Junichi Tazawa or Andrew Miller could see saves if Uehara were to suddenly get hurt, it’s worth noting that Mujica could be in the mix. Also worth noting, even on his off day, is Uehara’s outstanding season with a 33% K-BB% and only two earned runs in 31.2 innings pitched. Uehara has somehow managed to maybe be even better than his phenomenal 2013. Unreal.
Relievers are a volatile bunch. Some of you drafted the Greg Hollands and Koji Ueharas of the world early and you’re like “this closer game is easy.” Others are saying “I can’t believe I spent a ninth-round draft pick on Joe Nathan.” More are lauding their own snag of Francisco Rodriguez from the Opening Day waiver wire while their fellow players still lament that between Joe Smith, Rex Brothers, Mark Melancon, and Darren O’Day, their free agent scavenging has borne little fruit.
Saves are king when it comes to the value of relievers in fantasy baseball, but in the right type of league, top middle relievers can be very useful. In leagues with start limits, top middle relievers can help with ratios and, maybe more importantly, they can help you rack up strikeouts, which is a category than can be a tight race in start limit leagues.
To determine who the most valuable relievers have been so far, I took the top 100 relievers from ESPN’s player rater and stripped out the categorical contributions from wins and saves. I took out saves because most closers are owned, and you probably don’t need help chasing saves. I took out wins because they’re even harder to predict for relievers than they are for starters. Below is a list of the relievers with the greatest combined contributions in ERA, WHIP and Ks on the player rater so far this year along with their ESPN ownership percentage. Read the rest of this entry »