Some injury related news today with relievers returning from and going to the Disabled List so let’s get started…

• Wade Davis “has a strain on the top of the forearm” and has been put on the DL. Apparently it’s a similar injury that Davis had in the playoffs last year that he pitched through.  A reoccurring injury is never a fun sign but considering he pitched threw it previously and with the break coming, it shouldn’t be too long before Davis is back. The Royals might go by a committee of sorts so I’ll place Herrera at the top for now given that he’s been the best for KC. However, Ned Yost seems to trust Soria so expect him to get a look as well. We’ll be sure to update the grid as this situation is likely fluid with both relievers likely to get a chance. Luke Hochevar moves onto the grid but isn’t expected to see the ninth.

• While Wade Davis went down, Alex Colome was recalled from the DL. Colome actually entered the game last night but in a non-save situation as he was just getting work in. He was effective throwing a scoreless inning giving up one hit and picking up a strikeout. I expect him to reclaim the ninth immediately with Xavier Cedeno and Erasmo Ramirez moving down a slot.

• In other returning news, Adam Ottavino is back from Tommy John and recorded an out last night. Ottavino will “will ease back into game action” for now but could see higher leverage innings very soon. Jake McGee’s return wasn’t enough to supplant Carlos Estevez, so there’s no guarantee that Ottavino would either. However, Estevez isn’t necessarily Mr. Reliable and if Weiss chooses to make a change, Jake McGee has some more competition.

• It was all bad timing for Ryan Buchter. Right when Rodney was traded he had just recently given up a five-spot and although he was still the presumed next-in-line, it looks like Brandon Maurer is the closer. Both Buchter and Maurer struggle with control but really know how to miss bats. On the season, Buchter’s performance is better but Maurer has come on of late as he’s allowed just one run in his last nine appearances throwing 8.2 innings with ten strikeouts against zero walks. This situation is still red and Maurer has never quite been consistently dominant in the pen but he’s the closer for now.

• He’s not closing but damn has Edwin Diaz been impressive. In just 15.1 innings in the majors Diaz has 29 strikeouts which leads to a 17.02 K/9 and a 42% strikeout rate. Neither number is sustainable but seemingly each year a few lights out flamethrowers come up and Diaz looks to be one of them. I currently have him third in the grid below but this can certainly change. Steve Cishek has been solid this season and is still under contract next year so unless he’s traded I would still expect Diaz to set up and not rack saves increasing his future arbitration cost. Until then however, enjoy his strikeouts and ratio help.

• Note that the first iteration of this post was dated 2017. While many of the situations will remain similar come next July, I was not trying to predict the future.

Closer Grid:

l

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Small sample sizes be damned! OK, not really. But today we take a look at two players who, in very limited playing time, have made us (or should make us) look twice and dig just a little deeper.  Read the rest of this entry »

Good morning! Sorry I missed you all this weekend, so let’s get caught up on what went down. I won’t cover every save this weekend, but just the situations worth monitoring moving forward since there were a lot of saves.

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We’re the guys who spurned a late-April trade offer for Drew Smyly, he of the 7-plus ERA over his last ten starts. So of course you want to listen to us when we suggest selling high on a starting pitcher, especially one who’s leading the AL in ERA and Quality Starts. Nonetheless, that’s how we see things with Steven Wright.

You probably know Wright’s story. He was on the road to being a career minor leaguer when, 1n 2011, he had a Pauline conversion to the cult of the knuckleball, made it to the majors at 28 in 2013, found his way into the Red Sox starting rotation last season, and pitched pretty well until suffering a concussion after being hit in the head by a fly ball during the other team’s batting practice—a first, as far as we know. This season, he’s been channeling the 2012-model R.A. Dickey: 2.12 ERA, 8 wins, and 12 Quality Starts in 15 overall. Plus, because he’s a knuckleballer, he’s not doing those horrible things to his arm and shoulder that regular pitchers do, and can last deeper into games (almost 7 innings per start) than other guys. Read the rest of this entry »

• As some brilliant readers pointed out last night, we likely had the grid wrong for Tampa Bay and boy was that poor timing as Alex Colome was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. According to Marc Topkin “the DL move is retroactive to June 19, and Colome said he hopes to be ready to pitch again when eligible on Monday.” That might be a bit optimistic but it doesn’t look like Colome’s stay on the DL will be particularly lengthy. As the readers noted, Erasmo Ramirez has struggled so expect Xavier Cedeno to get the first look at saves but this could be a committee of sorts with Danny Farquhar and Matt Andriese in the mix as well.

• One closer gets hurt and another is on the mend. We gave a quick update on Jonathan Papelbon last night and he said he felt great after his outing last night, likely only needing one more simulated game before being ready to go. I would feel free to activate Papelbon as he’s likely to pitch this weekend for Washington and should return to his familiar role in the ninth.

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In this week’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, we’re doin’ a little plumbin’. Got to plumb! Plumb the depths, the depths of hell 18 team leagues and deeper. If you’re in a 14, 15, or 16 team league, you might be wise to pass on these players or just add them to your watch list but for those in leagues with 18+ teams or extremely large benches, I hope these guys are available. If not, let me know and the next time I’ll plumb further.

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• Welp, it looks like Trevor Rosenthal has officially lost his job as closer. As for the possible replacements, Kevin Siegrist, Seung-hwan Oh and Jonathan Broxton have all been named. However, Derrick Goold suggests that Oh was warming up for the possible save last night and that he will get the “first crack” at the ninth. Accordingly, we have placed Oh as the closer in the grid below with Siegrist and Broxton behind him. I’ve added Rosenthal to the injured column, not that he’s injured but to keep him on our minds. I expect he’ll pitch in very low-leverage innings (he threw a scoreless inning allowing two hits and one strikeout down four runs in the ninth today) and if he’s able to turn it around it’s possible that he could reclaim the ninth inning.  That would also imply that Rosie is pitching well, something he hasn’t really done at all this year with a 7.88 BB/9 and ERA estimators above four.

As far as relievers are considered – it doesn’t get much better than Oh this year as he’s been the 5th most valuable reliever, has a top 15 strikeout rate, a walk rate just outside the top 20 and a K%-BB% of 29.5%, 7th best in the league. Whether or not Oh gets the majority of save chances in Rosenthal’s absence, he’s worth getting excited about and using a claim on immediately.

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Things have been tough for Trevor Rosenthal lately, to put it nicely. Tonight’s game certainly did not help the Cardinals confidence in him, as he blew a two-run lead in the 9th. Rosenthal didn’t retire a batter after giving up a lead-off double, a walk, and then a walk-off three run homer by Adam Lind to seal the deal. Rosenthal has blown four of his last seven opportunities, and has not thrown a clean full inning since June 9th. His ERA is now up to 5.63 after this latest appearance. For more on Rosenthal’s struggles, check out this article by Paul Swydan. Regarding the current situation in St. Louis, nothing has been said whether or not he will lose the closer role just yet, but if I owned him, I would be prepared for a change coming up soon.
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The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

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Since it’s a slow day on the mound for relievers, here’s a brief rumor roundup:

• We mentioned Fernando Rodney’s success earlier today and it seems like his performance is “not going unnoticed by contenders” according to Peter Gammons. The Padres have about three trade pieces – Wil Myers, Drew Pomeranz and Fernando Rodney. It’s unlikely they trade the first two and maybe increasingly likely that Rodney goes. If Rodney is moved, expect breakout lefty Ryan Buchter to replace him in the ninth. Although 29 years old, Buchter has a history of striking out batters with iffy control in the minors and so far this year he’s supporting a 1.74/2.51/3.49 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line with a fantastic 37% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.7% which is above the league average of 8.2%.

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