It was another exciting weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There were several late blown leads, and there could be multiple role changes this week. On Saturday, we witnessed one of the most improbable 9th-inning comebacks in recent memory. Since there was so much activity on both days this weekend, this report is broken into two sections, one for each day:

Sunday:

• Bud Norris continued to shine as the fill-in for the injured Cam Bedrosian. With the Angels leading 4-2, Norris entered in the 8th inning with two on and two out. He struck out Rougned Odor to end the inning, then came back out for the 9th with the Angels up by three. After walking Elvis Andrus to start the inning, Norris struck out the next three batters he faced ­— Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mike Napoli — to notch his fifth save of the season (and of his career). In 14 innings this season, Norris has 19 strikeouts against six walks and zero home runs allowed, good for a 2.57 ERA/1.78 FIP/2.97 xFIP. The formerly mediocre starting pitcher has been lights out for the Halos, and may be worth owning in deeper leagues even after Bedrosian returns. Bedrosian hasn’t started throwing yet in his attempt to return from a groin injury that has kept him out of action since April 21.

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Tumult and turnover has plagued bullpens far earlier than they did last season. Already, just shy of the four-week mark, we’ve seen closers relieved of duties in Washington and Philadelphia due to poor performance, lost to injury in Los Angeles (AL) and Baltimore, and in Texas, we’ve seen volatility due to some combination of the two. Oakland continues to confound us with a bullpen-by-committee and up and down the closer grid, last year’s elite and upper tier closers struggle.

Here in the Chacon Zone, we search for those widely available middle relievers toiling away in waiver wire obscurity, who may prove more productive than less talented pitchers benefiting from ninth inning opportunity. Luckily for save punters and deep leaguers, there are plenty to discuss.

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A couple of postponed games and blowouts but here’s a few notes on the bullpens last night…

• The Rays used five pitchers for a two hit shutout against the Orioles tonight, which was capped off by Alex Colome’s fifth save. Colome took very kindly to the bullpen full time last year posting career bests in his strikeout rate and walk rates but the strikeouts have eluded him early on this year. It’s only been 10 innings but Colome has a meager five strikeouts and a swinging strike percentage of 8.2%, well below last season’s 15.1%. This isn’t to say that Colome could fall drastically in the same way I spoke about Brandon Kintzler last night, but his .179 BABIP might be making his owners overrate his standing among the elite relievers. Colome’s a good closer and I wouldn’t be mining for his backups but his shiny ERA is a bit misleading thus far. I expect him to continue to have a solid year but I would love to see his whiff percentage/strikeouts increase over his next few outings.

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• Brad Brach had his 10th scoreless appearance tonight getting his fourth save on the year. Brach most likely will give up a run this year and he won’t run a .063 much longer but his FIP/xFIP is currently at 1.50/2.96, proving he’s pretty damn good and not just benefiting from some batted ball luck. Brach will continue to close while Britton is on the DL with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens setting up. O’Day has been more effective in his last couple of appearances but has been shakier than normal this year. He’s been a staple in the O’s pen for so long that I think Showalter will give him a pretty long leash but if he keeps struggling, Givens could leapfrog him on the totem pole. In between blaming Dustin Pedroia for not controlling his teammates, Britton can be found playing catch and should be back in Baltimore soon. Brach is certainly worth owning even if he’s not seeing the ninth inning, and so long as Britton is on the shelf he’s a near top tier option for saves.

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• Washington, woof. Both the political arena and the bullpen are a mess right now. Blake Treinen entered the game in the ninth as he normally does and proceeded to allow four baserunners while only recording one out. With the bases loaded, Shawn Kelley came on and got a foul out and a strikeout to end the game for his first save of the year. The silver lining here is that Blake Treinen got his first hold of the year which tells you how useful of a stat that is. Shawn Kelley has been a good reliever for Washington but he never really was given a fair chance to close and I’m not sure if this necessarily changes the calculus.

Either way I’m putting the Nationals situation on red alert. Koda Glover was the early candidate to close games before Treinen was named and it’s possible he could receive a save opportunity soon as well. According to Dusty, the Nationals will likely be making a change at closer and I would go Glover then Kelley but it could be a coin flip. Sidenote: would anyone be surprised if Dusty literally flipped a coin? Whoever ends up receiving the next save opportunities, the Nationals would still need some help in the bullpen so my guess is that the team saves leader may not even be on the team currently. They acquired Mark Melancon last year and they will be linked to any and all trade rumors for saves. You should still go run and pick up Glover and Kelley though.

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Well, that was a pretty eventful weekend for closers, let’s get to it with some news from today as well…

• Zach Britton has dreaded soreness in his forearm and was placed on the 10-Day DL. I say dreaded because of a common connection with the elbow but Britton is saying he won’t need a MRI. I’m assuming that’s a good thing and not the Orioles trying to save a buck. Either way, Brad Brach should see save chances in Britton’s place with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens behind him. From 2009 to 2015 O’Day had a 2.07 ERA in 400.1 innings but last year it jumped to 3.77 and he’s been rusty to the start of this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Givens leapfrog O’Day here.

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Per Baltimore Orioles: Zach Britton on 10-day DL w left forearm strain. RHP Stefan Crichton recalled from Triple-A Norfolk. (cc: #BlueJays)

— Laura Armstrong (@lauraarmy) April 16, 2017

Hot off the press, the world’s best relief pitcher has been sent to the Disabled List with a dreaded forearm strain. A strain, for those of you not familiar, is the tearing of a muscle or a tendon. This is a big deal in the forearm, particularly for a pitcher, because these muscles are the ones that protect the UCL during the pitching motion.

We are all familiar with the performance Zach Britton put out in the 2016 season – arguably, one of the most dominant relief pitching performances of all time. What was happening under the hood to lead to this injury?

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Santiago Casilla, who we have listed as the A’s closer, relieved Liam Hendriks in the 7th inning with runners on the corners and one out with a two-run lead.

Casilla got Jose Altuve to ground into a force out, on which a run scored, then struck out Carlos Correa after falling behind in the count, 3-0, and allowing two steals to Altuve.

Casilla came back out for the top of the 8th, at which time the A’s still had a 5-4 lead, and he issued a lead-off walk, a stolen base, another walk, and a sacrifice bunt. He was then replaced by Sean Doolittle, with runners on second and third and one out for Nori Aoki.

Doolittle’s first pitch was a fastball in the dirt that got away from the catcher. The tying run scored and the go-ahead run moved up to third with one out. Aoki then gave the Astros the lead with a sacrifice fly to center field, and both runs were charged to Casilla. Doolittle then allowed a single and a home run by George Springer.

Before Casilla and Doolittle entered the game, the score was 5-3, Oakland. When they left, it was 8-5, Houston.

Long story short: stay away from the volatile A’s bullpen until things settle down.

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There have been a lot of questions and comments this season about the change in pitch velocity readings. I am not going to go into depth why these changes were made, but I have seen a lot of people questioning these velocity readings, and how they might compare to past seasons.

I am sure you have seen articles about how velocities this season are roughly 0.6 mph faster than last season, so maybe you have been subtracting a mile per hour from each number you see as a back of the envelope estimate.  Maybe you’re happy with that, maybe not.  Tom Tango mentioned a manner for calculating the traditional pitch velocities in the comment section of his blog post about the change to Start Speed. After seeing this, I immediately implemented it on my personal pitch database, and I am here to share those results with you today. Read the rest of this entry »

Another Sam Dyson meltdown has everyone running to their waiver wires, but for who? Matt Bush is the fantasy favorite with a 97 mph and gaudy strikeout rate (26% since the start of 2016), but he’s getting an exam on the AC joint in his right shoulder and will be out for at least a few days. I tend to believe Jeremy Jeffress is the next-in-line even with a healthy Bush after notching 27 saves last year, but he lost the game after Dyson blew it on Tuesday night and has allowed runs in three of his five outing, so it’s not like he’s instilling a ton of confidence in manager Jeff Banister right now, either. We haven’t gotten much from Banister himself, though this non-committal comment from Evan Grant’s piece suggests it’s under review:

“We’ll evaluate all our options,” manager Jeff Banister said when asked about the closer situation.

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