Well the trade deadline has passed so let’s take a look and see how the bullpens were affected. Before I go on however, it’s worth leading you to Paul’s breakdown earlier this afternoon.  Tonight we will focus on the deadline recap and tomorrow we will turn our attention to deeper dives in those situations that are deserving.

• With the Mets selling we all figured Addison Reed would be on the way out and to Boston he goes. Reed won’t have many chance for saves unless Kimbrel gets hurt or throws three days in a row but he likely leapfrogs Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly as the main setup man in Boston. Reed’s been pretty terrific since last year in New York pitching to a 2.20/2.43/3.28 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 126.2 innings. However, it’s worth noting in that time he’s posted a mediocre 39% GB%. Moving from Citi to Fenway Park and the American League might cause a few more fly balls to leave the yard. I don’t doubt Reed as the best option behind Kimbrel but consider him to be more of a decent fantasy option than ace reliever. The Red Sox figure to be one of the better teams in the AL moving forward so Reed should rack up those Holds but in save only leagues there isn’t much to see here.

As for the Mets side, recent acquisition A.J. Ramos will pick up the ninth inning duties with Paul Sewald and Jerry Blevins behind him. Addison Reed’s control was stellar for the Mets but A.J. Ramos and his (lack of) control will probably have Mets fans remembering Armando Benitez. Overall they should be pleased with the results if that’s the case but his 4.5-5 BB/9 will likely cause fans to occasionally pull their hair out late in games. Read the rest of this entry »

The Angels bullpen melted down in epic fashion on Sunday, blowing a 10-4 ninth-inning lead against the Blue Jays. Brooks Pounders started the frame by issuing a walk, a home run, and a double. He was then replaced by Bud Norris, who got one out but surrendered two singles, a walk, and a walk-off grand slam to Steve Pearce. It was the second walk-off grand slam against Norris (the first by Edwin Encarnacion) — and the second hit by Pearce — this week. Over his last 1.1 innings (13 batters faced), Norris has allowed eight earned runs on two grand slams, walked six, and recorded just one strikeout. His overall numbers have ballooned to a 3.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.59 xFIP in 41.2 innings. Given Norris’s recent struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Halos look elsewhere for their next save opportunity.

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, there was plenty of relevant bullpen activity on a busy Sunday afternoon…

Sean Doolittle pitched a scoreless ninth with the Nationals up by four against the Diamondbacks. He now has two saves and the completion of a four-run win under his belt with his new team, and Ryan Madson has yet to see a save opportunity in Washington. It bears repeating, however, that Dusty Baker has indicated that he may mix and match with those two in the ninth, and that he will be cautious with Doolittle given his history of arm issues. Even if Doolittle is the main closer in Washington, which appears to be the case for now, Madson is probably still worth stashing in holds leagues, and to those desperate for saves, in case Doolittle falters or sustains another injury.

Zach Britton struck out two and walked one en route to his first save since April 14. Orioles ownership has reportedly given management the green light to trade Britton, so his status is worth monitoring closely in the coming days. His successful save conversion on Sunday was a good start, but Britton has missed a lot of time with a forearm injury this season and teams might not be willing to give up what the Orioles would want in return for their ace reliever. If Britton remains with the Orioles, he will likely reclaim the closer’s role in full capacity assuming he can remain healthy. If he’s traded, however, it’s possible that he could be used in an Andrew Miller-type role on a new team.

On Saturday, Hector Neris allowed a run on three hits in what had been a tie game in the ninth, and was saddled with the loss. On Sunday, with a three-run ninth-inning lead, the Phillies went to Luis Garcia for the save chance. He struck out one in a perfect frame. It was his first save of the season and just the third of his career. Despite the rare save opportunity, Garcia’s peripherals don’t suggest he’s a closer in the making, so the grid remains unchanged for now. Neris’ grip on the ninth, however, remains relatively shaky.

Jose Leclerc was brought into a left-heavy section of the Rays’ lineup in the ninth with the Rangers up by one. He struck out two and walked two to secure the save. Leclerc has an exceptional 35.5 percent strikeout rate this season, but he’s also walked 16.1 percent of batters. Along Alex Claudio and Keone Kela, Leclerc is in the Rangers’ ninth-inning mix. Despite picking up the majority of saves for the Rangers recently, Jeff Banister wouldn’t commit to Alex Claudio as his closer, and Sunday’s converted save chance by Leclerc seemed to back that up. Matt Bush, who held the closer’s role for the Rangers earlier this season, pitched a scoreless seventh with the Rangers trailing by a run on Sunday.

Kenley Jansen blew a three-run ninth-inning lead against the Braves. Jansen allowed the first two batters to reach but settled down and got two outs before finally allowing a three-run homer to Matt Adams that tied the game. It was Jansen’s first blown save of the season.

Staying in the National League West, Brad Hand picked up a save against the Giants on Sunday. Brandon Maurer is San Diego’s usual closer, and he blew a save on Friday when he surrendered two two-out baserunners and a game-tying, three-run blast to Conor Gillaspie. If Hand wasn’t likely to be traded, it might be a bigger deal that he got the save chance over Maurer on Sunday. As it is, Maurer will remain in the closer’s spot on the grid for now, and Hand’s future is completely unknown at this time. If he isn’t traded, he could conceivably take over the closer’s role in San Diego. If he is traded, there’s no telling what his role will be. He’s probably worth owning in all holds leagues, as he’s quietly one of the best relievers in baseball.

With the Yankees leading by two runs in Seatlle, Dellin Betances pitched the seventh and David Robertson pitched the eighth. Betances has struggled mightily with command this season to the tune of a 17.8 percent walk rate, and it appears that Robertson may snag the eighth inning role and be next in line for saves behind closer Aroldis Chapman. For now, Betances will remain in his usual spot behind Chapman on the grid, but that could change if he continues to see the seventh and Robertson continues to see the eighth.

There were a few fresh faces in the eighth inning on Sunday: Blake Parker of the Angels, Bruce Rondon of the Tigers, and Jason Grilli of the Rangers all pitched in close eighth innings despite occupying lesser roles recently. Parker and Grilli pitched spotless frames, and Rondon allowed two runs on three hits before giving way to Justin Wilson for a four-out save opportunity. Wilson allowed a home run and a walk in the ninth but struck out three in the outing to secure his 12th save.

Other closer activity: Raisel Iglesias notched a two-inning save against the Marlins. Santiago Casilla allowed a hit but notched his 16th save against the Mets. Kelvin Herrera struck out two in a perfect ninth in a tie game at home. Bud Norris secured a one-run save against the Red Sox. Tyler Clippard was brought into a two-on, no out situation in a tie game in the ninth inning on the road, and he allowed a game-ending single to the first batter he faced, Brandon Moss. Brandon Kintzler entered in the top of the ninth with the Twins trailing by a run, and he allowed three runs on two hits and two walks. Jim Johnson entered in the bottom of the 10th in a tie game against the Dodgers, and allowed the winning run to score. Aroldis Chapman allowed two hits but struck out one and notched his 11th save of the season against the Mariners.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Let the trades begin! In case you haven’t heard the news, the Yankees and the White Sox conducted a trade with fairly significant bullpen implications. Travis Sawchik has a great post about the trade here but the White Sox are sending Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson and Todd Frazier to the Yankees with prospects Blake Rutherford, Tito Polo, Ian Clarkin and veteran arm Tyler Clippard moving to Chicago. With Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances already in store, it’s unlikely that Robertson or Kahnle see the ninth but they sure make for a formidable pen in New York.

If you were a Robertson owner hoping to see saves in Washington, I’m sorry. If you were a Kahnle owner licking your chops for Robertson to be moved, I’m sorry. Of more interest than the Yankees situation since Chapman and Betances already have the fort down is the current one in Chicago. I initially thought that Clippard would get the first shot but with a 4.95/4.97/4.82 pitching line and a contract into next year, it’s unlikely he will be able to prove enough as an interim closer to get anything of value in a trade. Anthony Swarzak however is a different case. He has been excellent with a 2.45/2.29/3.48 line and since he is a free agent next year, it’s likely the White Sox want to pump up his value. I expect him to get the first save chances and also expect him to be in trade rumors until the deadline. With all of that said, this situation is still red.

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It’s officially that time of year. A deal was struck between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals on Sunday that sent relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in exchange for Blake Treinen and two prospects.

That the Nationals made a move for bullpen help doesn’t come as a surprise, but Doolittle and Madson weren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates. Now that the deal is done, the question is: who’s going to serve as closer for a Nationals bullpen that has struggled so mightily this season?

According to SB Nation’s Federal Baseball, Nationals manager Dusty Baker was non-committal:

“I’m not sure. I’ve got to talk to [A’s manager] Bob Melvin. Like I said, both of them have closed, I know both of them have had some arm problems in the past, so it could be both of them, you know what I mean, so we’ll see.”

Although Baker wouldn’t name an official closer, it would appear that the job will go to one of the two newly-acquired relievers from Oakland.

Doolittle is seven years younger than Madson, and he has the strikeout stuff more typical of a closer. He’s striking out nearly 40 percent of batters faced this season, and his career mark is north of 30 percent. He’s always been exceptional at limiting walks, too, as his 4.8 percent career walk rate indicates. He’s also managed to limit homers to the tune of a career 0.78 HR/9 despite being a fly ball pitcher.

When he’s healthy, Doolittle is an elite reliever, but arm injuries have limited him to just 64 innings since 2014. He has spent time on the disabled list this season with a strain in his throwing shoulder.

Madson, meanwhile, has pitched at least 60 innings in each of the last two seasons and already has 39.1 innings this season. This year, he’s featuring a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and he’s struck out 20.8 percent of batters he’s faced in his career. Like Doolittle, command has never been an issue, as his 7.0 percent career walk rate indicates. Perhaps most impressively, Madson hasn’t allowed a home run per nine innings or worse in any single season since 2006, when he was still a starting pitcher. His consistently excellent home run prevention is made possible by his sterling 48.4 percent career ground ball rate.

Since Doolittle is the more electric of the two, he will probably get the first shot at save opportunities. His recent arm issues and flyball tendencies, however, make him the riskier option. Should Doolittle falter, or if the Nationals decide to go the safer route from the start, Madson is a reasonable ninth-inning option who could do well if called upon. Stay tuned for updates on how this all shakes out.

On Saturday, Alex Claudio picked up his third save of the season for the Rangers. With a 1-0 lead in the ninth, right-hander Jose Leclerc walked the leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain on four pitches, and so the lefty Claudio was summoned for Eric Hosmer. He struck out Hosmer, then got Salvador Perez to hit into a game-ending double play. On Sunday, Claudio pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth in a tie game. Claudio has emerged as a possible closer for the Rangers, as Al Melchior pointed out on Friday. He doesn’t boast exceptional strikeout stuff, but he does have a terrific 63.5 percent career ground ball rate that allows him to limit homers and induce weak contact.

The Cardinals are going to a closer by committee, but it didn’t work in their or Brett Cecil’s favor on Sunday. Cecil blew a one-run lead as he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk against the Pirates, and it’s a full-blown red situation in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh has struggled all season, especially against lefties, who have a .447 wOBA against him, so Cecil was brought in to face a lefty-heavy part of the Pirates lineup and couldn’t get the job done. Anchored by a strikeout rate near 40 percent, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has the best peripherals in the Cardinals ‘pen, so he should get a consistent opportunity to close at some point in the near future. He’s the most desirable Cardinal to target for now. Despite Sunday’s failed opportunity, Cecil may also be worth an add for those in need of saves, as he’s clearly in the mix for save opportunities moving forward. Cecil boasts solid peripherals in his own right.

Other closer activity: Aroldis Chapman notched his ninth save of the season. Kenley Jansen picked up his 23rd save in 1.1 innings of work. He struck out three. Zach Britton pitched a scoreless inning with the Orioles down six runs. He allowed a hit and a walk. Ken Giles allowed a run on a hit and a walk but picked up his 20th save of the season. Hector Neris allowed a couple of bloop singles to open the ninth with a three-run lead, but he closed things out with a strikeout and two popups. It was his eighth save. Justin Wilson struck out one in a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at home. David Robertson also struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning in a tie game at home. Edwin Diaz needed just 12 pitches to strike out all three batters he faced against the White Sox in the 10th inning to pick up his 16th save of the season. Bud Norris escaped a bases-loaded, one-out situation with the tying run on third base. He allowed a run but notched his 14th save.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

At the midway point of the season, it’s always interesting to see how teams are utilizing their pitching staffs. I’ve been examining workloads through the metric I created, called Fatigue Units. This metric accounts for days between appearances, stress during pitching, and time between pitches – you can read more about it here. TLDR; Fatigue Units appear to be a more accurate indicator of “overworked” pitchers than pitches, or innings pitched.

To start off – what does the midway point indicate about a pitcher’s workload? It doesn’t necessarily indicate what the workload will be by season’s end, but it does say that the pitcher has worked hard in the first half. It definitely says that the team has trusted that pitcher, and, that pitcher is very good. Here’s what the halfway point workloads looked like in 2016.

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Another compelling day of bullpen activity around the major leagues as the unofficial first half of the season comes to a close…

One day after allowing two walks and a walk-off homer, All-Star closer Corey Knebel entered in the eighth inning with a two-run lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He walked Ji-Man Choi, but retired the next batter on a ground ball to short. In the ninth, Knebel walked Brett Gardner to open the inning, but then struck out Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez to notch his 14th save and secure the first-place Brewers’ 50th victory. The strikeout of Judge marked Knebel’s 44th consecutive appearance with at least one strikeout, which is now just five shy of the major league record for a relief pitcher set by Aroldis Chapman in 2014. Knebel’s 43 consecutive appearances with at least one strikeout to open the season is already the single-season record and the most ever to begin a year.

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• Rough night for Craig Kimbrel as he only struck out one in a perfect inning for his 21st save. I’m a bit late to the game but I watched Fastball this weekend on Netflix which featured Craig Kimbrel and his heater quite a bit. While he was on the Braves when the film came out, he’s throwing even harder now (98.2 average mph on his fastball) and maybe even pitching better than ever, which says a lot. In 33.2 innings pitched this year, Kimbrel has 61 strikeouts against only five walks leading to a 1.07/0.43/1.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. If you’re wondering if maybe SIERA is picking up something FIP is missing, well that’s at a cool 0.94. Kimbrel has broken advanced pitching metrics this year, again.

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Following up on Friday’s Bullpen Report in which we reported that Roberto Osuna was unavailable due to illness, it turns out that it was mental illness. Arden Zwelling of Sportnet passed along the following comments from the Blue Jays closer:

I don’t really know how to explain it. I just feel anxious. I feel like I’m lost a little bit right now. This has nothing to do with me being on the field. I feel great out there. It’s just when I’m out of baseball. When I’m not on the field, I feel just weird and a little bit lost.

Needless to say, Osuna’s mental health should be everyone’s top priority. It was encouraging that he pitched the ninth inning on Sunday with an 8-2 lead. He allowed a two-out single but struck out the side.

Despite the appearance on Sunday, Osuna’s status as the team’s full-time closer remains in doubt for the time being while he works through his personal issues. Ryan Tepera is next in line for saves if Osuna needs to miss additional time.

Matt Bush, who was saddled with a blown save and a loss on Friday, closed out a one-run win over the Yankees on Sunday. With a blazing fastball, he breezed through the first two outs before Aaron Judge singled, and the inning culminated in a battle with Gary Sanchez, who had homered earlier in the game. Despite the drama, Bush struck out Sanchez on a sharp slider off the plate, giving him his ninth save of the season. Things haven’t been easy for Bush as of late: he currently has a troubling 4.55 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. However, Bush has the stuff to be at least an adequate closer, and the projections back that up. Recent struggles aside, Bush still seems to have a grasp on the closer’s role, although Keone Kela is lurking behind him.

Yusmeiro Petit picked up a two-inning save against the Red Sox. The Angels bullpen in general is going through significant change right now, with Bud Norris recently landing on the disabled list and Cam Bedrosian and Huston Street recently returning from injury. Bedrosian looks like the closer moving forward, at least until Norris returns, and Petit probably received the save chance on Sunday because Bedrosian had thrown 30 pitches the previous day. In that 30-pitch outing, Bedrosian allowed two runs on two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch.

Santiago Casilla allowed a home run and a single but picked up his 13th save against the White Sox. Casilla has been shaky all season, and Sunday was no exception. He now has a 4.28 ERA/4.20 FIP/4.75 xFIP in 27.1 innings. On his heels, Sean Doolittle has been outstanding as of late. Doolittle has 22 strikeouts and has allowed just one walk and two homers in 13.2 innings. True, the sample size is minuscule, but Doolittle’s 1.98 ERA/2.04 FIP/1.85 xFIP looks so much better than what Casilla has done this season. If Doolittle can prove that he’s healthy and reliable, it’s conceivable that a change in the pecking order could take place at some point this season.

Alex Colome pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game, and he allowed three runs on two hits, two intentional walks, and a hit batsman. As has been mentioned multiple times in the Bullpen Report this year, Colome’s strikeout rate has fallen back down to earth after he put up impressive numbers in that category last season. But for the most part, he still gets the job done. Despite the 4.40 xFIP this season, he has just a 3.15 ERA and 3.17 FIP, and that same trend (beating his xFIP) has held true throughout his major league career. The projections forecast good things moving forward from Colome as well, so today’s outing looks like just a rare bad one for Colome.

Joe Kelly extended his scoreless streak to 21 consecutive outings dating back to May 1. In that 18.1 inning span, Kelly has a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 55.6 percent ground ball rate. He’s picked up holds in three of his last four appearances and has nine on the season. Overall, Kelly boasts a 1.10 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.98 xFIP in 32.2 innings this season, but his strikeout rate is projected to increase (it’s just 18.5 percent on the year), and he could be on his way to a sustained and prominent role in the Red Sox ‘pen. He’s bumping Heath Hembree, who has just one hold since May 26, off the grid for now.

Other closer activity: A.J. Ramos picked up a four-out save (12). Brandon Kintzler pitched a perfect ninth in a non-save situation. Brach Brach pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth and was rewarded with a win. Craig Kimbrel allowed a run on two hits and a strikeout in a non-save situation. Raisel Iglesias pitched 1.2 innings to finish off the Nationals in a non-save situation. Fernando Rodney pitched a scoreless top of the ninth in a tie game. He struck out one and walked a batter. Brandon Maurer pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. He has a 6.53 ERA and a 3.86 xFIP. Justin Wilson struck out two in a perfect ninth to notch his sixth save of the season. Kenley Jansen entered with a one-run lead with one out in the eighth, and he ultimately finished off the Rockies in the ninth with a six-run lead. Jansen added to the offensive explosion in the bottom of the eighth with an RBI double off Greg Holland.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

In-season Saves hunting is a long standing fantasy baseball tradition. It can lead to the promised land (Felipe Rivero) or to hours of frustration (the Nationals). To help with finding volatile closer situations, I created a metric to help find relievers on the ‘Hot Seat’. While it is far from perfect, it does show some promise in finding struggling relievers.

First off, this Hot Seat metric is not close to being a replacement for our Bullpen Report. It doesn’t take into account different levels of team fickleness, injuries, velocity drops, setup options, and many other contextual contributions. It just looks back at pitcher performance. It might not even show any relievers who are really struggling but it may give a desperate owner a list of closers who may be on the outs after a couple more Blown Saves.

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