Not a particularly busy or thrilling night across the bullpens so here are a few nuggets of interest from last night…

• The Padres lost to the Nationals last night but Phil Maton threw a scoreless inning with a walk and a strikeout. In 13 innings this year Maton has 14 strikeouts and an unimpressive 7 walks leading to a 2.86 FIP and 4.10 SIERA but his minor league strikeout rates and 15.5% SwStr% this year suggest there is room to grow in the K department. We have Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen on the grid below but if Maton can up his strikeouts without walking the world, he could become a sneaky contributor in deep leagues.

• Keone Kela has struggled a bit of late in the ERA department, allowing five runs in his previous two appearances but he threw a scoreless inning last night, striking out two batters for his 7th save of the year. While Kela supports a 6.00 ERA rings the alarm, his 2.75 FIP and 3.40 SIERA suggest brighter days ahead. If Kela is able to string together a few good outings we will remove the yellow tag on him in the grid. Jose Leclerc pitched in the eight allowing a hit and an unearned run but also struck out two batters, lowering his ERA to 2.45. Jake Diekman pitched in the eighth, throwing a scoreless inning while also allowing a walk, something that is a legitimate issue as he now has issued 12 free passes in only 12.1 innings. Diekman has been setting up Kela thus far, so he’s second in line on the grid but if something were to happen to Kela I wouldn’t be surprised to see Leclerc leapfrog him for saves as he’s a righty with more swing and miss stuff.

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Just when the St. Louis Cardinal fans thought the closer position was settled down Bud Norris goes out and pitches like… well… Bud Norris. Not exactly analysis, but ask most Cardinal fans what they think of their bullpen at the moment. In a game against their biggest rival, the Chicago Cubs and a game where Miles Mikolas pitched a gem, Norris was one swing away from blowing this one.

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• Shane Greene came on to start the ninth inning tonight in a 0-0 game and unfortunately was unable to finish the inning after allowing a lead off walk to Denard Span, a homer to C.J. Cron and a solo shot to Brad Miller. Buck Farmer relieved Greene in the ninth but Joe Jimenez and Alex Wilson both figure to be in line for saves if a change occurs in Detroit. After tonight’s outing, Green is supporting a 5.73 ERA and matching 6.00 FIP. He won’t carry a 20.0% HR/FB all season and a 65.2 LOB% either but his .310 BABIP doesn’t portray someone who’s been getting killed by luck, although his sequencing certainly has left a lot to be desired. We had Greene safe before tonight’s blow up so I won’t sound the alarms but it’s hard to carry an ERA touching 6 and feel comfortable. As mentioned, Joe Jimenez would be next in line. His strikeout rate could be on the up and up with a 11.7 SwStr% but only a 18% K% but overall he’s not quite as dominant as you might like to see with someone next in line.

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Bullpen Report – March, 30th 2018

With only eight wins on the season, the Orioles closer job has been pretty tough to speculate on so far this season. However, manager Buck Showalter did fantasy owners a big favor Sunday night by laying his cards on the table in their 5-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

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• Biggest news from last night has to be in Atlanta where A.J. Minter secured his first save of the year. While many non-closers get a save opportunity from time to time, the Braves manager mentioned “we will see more A.J. Minter in the 9th” which likely places him in a timeshare for saves with Arodys Vizcaino. Minter was damn impressive last year in a small sample, and he was expected to be lurking but with Vizcaino supporting a shiny ERA I didn’t expect any changes to occur any time soon. Obviously that is not the case and one should rush to pick up Minter. We will monitor how the saves are issued moving forward but this looks like a real committee.  A.J. Minter is the south paw, so it’s safe to say he will see saves when lefties are expected in the order, but we will have to wait and see how it develops from there.

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Craig Kimbrel

The Kimbrel discussion starts with this graph:

Plenty of narratives can exist explaining the initial velocity drop. He missed a good part of spring training. The cold weather is keeping his velocity down. He’s still warming up.

The drop doesn’t bother me as much as the trend. If he’s still building strength for the season, shouldn’t his velocity start trending up at some point?

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Life is full of guarantees… death, taxes, and Fernando Rodney finding himself on the closer hot seat. Its only April baseball and yet here we are again. Rodney fialed close it down Friday night with just a one-run lead. He would cough this one up in a fairly strange sequence of events.

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All 13 Tampa Bay Rays fans in attendance last night almost got a little too much excitement with their “closer” once again. Romo and Colome were both warming in the bullpen, up by three runs, as the Rangers threatened with two on, two out in the bottom of the eighth.

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• Something might be brewing in Milwaukee as Josh Hader recorded another six out save for his second of the year. Since his last two save opportunities came via the two inning variety, it’s still unlikely that he’s used as a traditional closer so consistent saves while Corey Knebel is on the shelf may be unlikely. But, things are still s trending in the right direction, especially if Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes are less than stellar. Regardless of save opportunties, Hader is becoming one of the most valuable relievers and on the season Hader has 25 strikeouts in 11.2 innings supporting a 61% K% and a 0.21 SIERA. Damn.

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Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.

Fastball Grades

This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.

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