Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.

Fastball Grades

This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.

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• Alex Colome has had some struggles of late and although he allowed the first two batters to reach base last night, he didn’t allow one to score and held onto the one run lead for his second save of the year. On the year Colome has allowed four runs in 3.1 innings, which can happen early on for a reliever after a rough outing but what’s troublesome is his 4.8% K% and 14.3% BB%. For his career, Colome has a 11.6% SwStr% and this year it’s only at 8.6%.

Colome displayed fantastic swing and miss stuff in 2016 paired with a better walk rate, but both of those went in the wrong direction last year and that trend has continued this year. There seems to be no real concerns with his velocity and he will have a long leash in Tampa Bay but it’s worth noting his appearances here on out. If he continues to slip look for Sergio Romo, Jose Alvarado, and Chaz Roe to be next in line. Roe and Alvarado shared the 6th and 7th innings last night with Romo getting four outs and three strikeouts to set up Colome with the save.

• Rough start to the Greg Holland era in St. Louis. Holland came on in the 10th inning last night and walked four batters while only getting one out. Bud Norris finished the inning but the damage was done as Holland received the loss. The Cardinals didn’t pay Holland to give him just one save opportunity but it might take a few appearances in non-closing situations before he’s given the role. I’d expect Bud Norris to see the next save opportunity with Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, and Jordan Hicks setting up along with Holland.

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As we enter the weekend, the Milwaukee bullpen continues to be the most volatile situation to speculate for saves. The word from the Brewers today regarding Corey Knebel was unfortunately bad news. According to the Milwaukee manager, Craig Counsell, Knebel will miss “a minimum of six weeks” with his left hamstring strain. For those who missed the injury, it was a lot worse than it sounds. Knebel fell to the ground after delivering a pitch in the 9^th inning down 6 to 0 in Thursday night’s game against the Cubs.

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While the closer grid might start green it doesn’t take too long for some different colors to emerge.

• The current situation in Anaheim has been interesting to say the least. Blake Parker’s hold on the job was never seen as particularly strong and he hasn’t done himself any favors early on this year, needing to be bailed out by Keynan Middleton as Al Melchior mentioned last night. I’ve changed this situation to yellow and added Middleton to the grid. It might be anyone’s guess who gets the next save opportunity but I’m keeping Parker in the lead for now. If Mike Scioscia wants to go with the hot hand he could turn to Middleton again and there’s also Bedrosian who’s been deployed a setup man thus far as well as Jim Johnson who does have that trademarked closer experience. At some point this situation might settle but for now there are a few guys who are worthy of speculative adds but also not provide any saves. Helpful, I know.

• As far as other colors go, we’re sticking with Baltimore at yellow before moving to a code red. Brad Brach obviously has not looked effective so far but until we see O’Day pitching in a save situation or Buck Showalter address the situation, we’re going to keep Brach in the lead. Darren O’Day did get some action on Monday but he entered in the 8th inning in a 6-1 game. It’s possible he’s was getting some work in as he had only pitched on Thursday so far this season. O’Day did look effective, striking out a pair in a perfect inning. If he’s still on the wire I would definitely look to grab him over Mychal Givens.

• We had Pedro Baez as the next-in-line in LA but it looks like Josh Fields is the man of the eighth for now. Baez looked good getting four perfect outs but he entered the game in the fourth inning. Josh Fields meanwhile took the ball in the eighth and pitched around a hit, striking out two batters. If something were to happen to Kenley Jansen I would keep an eye on Baez, but Fields would be the man to own. Speaking of Jansen, after taking the loss in his first appearance this year he doubled down with a blown save tonight, allowing three earned in the ninth. Jansen’s velocity has been down a few ticks this year and consider me worried. We don’t know if something is going on yet but I would look to grab Fields if I was in need of saves. If one is willing to chase saves in Miami, they should be willing to use a speculative add on Fields. Jansen certainly has a laughably tighter grasp on the role than Brad Ziegler but the payoff on getting the Dodgers closer is much greater than one in Miami. I’m a little hesitant to jump the gun here and make this situation yellow, but better safe than sorry with a big payoff if Jansen is to miss anytime.

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Only a few games into the season and the relief pitcher body count has already started to mount. No, none of your fantasy arms died tonight but injuries to some top rated arms seems almost unavoidable in today’s game. Earlier today the Phillies placed Pat Neshek on the 10-Day disabled list with what the Phillies are calling “Right Shoulder Strain”. This only a day after Philadelphia placed late inning reviver Tommy Hunter on the 10-Day DL as well. Neither of those two were lined directly up for save opportunities but it leaves Hector Neris on a closer island all by himself with a somewhat secure ninth inning role, even after his implosion just a night ago.

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Last week I wrote about a few lesser known opportunities within Ottoneu to maximize salary cap space, which is important to understand before your fantasy season begins.  However, by the time you read this post the fantasy season will have already begun, so I want to focus your attention today on strategies that will help you in-season as you attempt to squeeze every bit of value out of your team during what is sure to be a long but very fun Ottoneu season.

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The Cardinals have added Jordan Hicks to their major league bullpen. The move comes as a surprise with Hicks skipping both Double and Triple-A. While Hicks’s role is not defined, he’s a talented pitcher who can’t be ignored.

The 21-year-old righty has previously shown a plus fastball. Here are the various scouting reports on it.

• FanGraphs: Grade 50/55, “…routinely sitting 94 or better during the regular season, Hicks’ heater sat 97-100 in the Fall League … trouble keeping it down … doesn’t play like an 80-grade fastball…”
• MLB.com: Grade: 70, “… fastball will sit in the mid-90s, frequently touch the upper-90s and flirt with triple digits, all with plus natural movement…”
• Baseball America: Grade: 70, “… 93-98 mph with his fastball, sits 95, and touches 101 in short bursts…holds his velocity … fastball plays up further with arm side life…”
• BHQ: Grade: 4+, 93-98 “… sits 93-96, topping at 100 mph with good late sink…”

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that far more difficult to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, though. Given that there is both more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is challenging to balance boldness with realistic, considering this requires me to bet against a group of names in which it’s like a 95% lock that one of them wins the category. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category. I decided against a bold wins league leader, because wins are silly and unpredictable. All I usually do is pick a good pitcher on a top offense.

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It’s closing time!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. The Bullpen Report team, plus Jeff and myself did these rankings. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Al Melchior
• Keith Farnsworth
• Ben Pasinkoff
• Greg Jewett

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Note – The first Bullpen Report will be out this weekend!

Key:

• AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
• Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
• SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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In a small subset of leagues, relievers who have starting pitcher eligibility are gold. If an owner hasn’t been in such a league, the following information is useless and confusing. The specific league requirements which boost these pitcher values are (Note: normally seen in Yahoo leagues):

• Daily lineup changes
• Starting and relief pitcher slots
• Inning limits

I used to be in such a league and I would scavenge the waiver wire looking for any of these pitchers. They allow an owner to accumulate great rate stats when their starter isn’t starting. Two or three can just sit permanently in the starting slots. And every year, it seems like one guy ends up getting a few Saves.

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