Bullpen Report – March, 30th 2018
With only eight wins on the season, the Orioles closer job has been pretty tough to speculate on so far this season. However, manager Buck Showalter did fantasy owners a big favor Sunday night by laying his cards on the table in their 5-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers.
• Biggest news from last night has to be in Atlanta where A.J. Minter secured his first save of the year. While many non-closers get a save opportunity from time to time, the Braves manager mentioned “we will see more A.J. Minter in the 9th” which likely places him in a timeshare for saves with Arodys Vizcaino. Minter was damn impressive last year in a small sample, and he was expected to be lurking but with Vizcaino supporting a shiny ERA I didn’t expect any changes to occur any time soon. Obviously that is not the case and one should rush to pick up Minter. We will monitor how the saves are issued moving forward but this looks like a real committee. A.J. Minter is the south paw, so it’s safe to say he will see saves when lefties are expected in the order, but we will have to wait and see how it develops from there.
The Kimbrel discussion starts with this graph:
Plenty of narratives can exist explaining the initial velocity drop. He missed a good part of spring training. The cold weather is keeping his velocity down. He’s still warming up.
The drop doesn’t bother me as much as the trend. If he’s still building strength for the season, shouldn’t his velocity start trending up at some point?
Life is full of guarantees… death, taxes, and Fernando Rodney finding himself on the closer hot seat. Its only April baseball and yet here we are again. Rodney fialed close it down Friday night with just a one-run lead. He would cough this one up in a fairly strange sequence of events.
All 13 Tampa Bay Rays fans in attendance last night almost got a little too much excitement with their “closer” once again. Romo and Colome were both warming in the bullpen, up by three runs, as the Rangers threatened with two on, two out in the bottom of the eighth.
• Something might be brewing in Milwaukee as Josh Hader recorded another six out save for his second of the year. Since his last two save opportunities came via the two inning variety, it’s still unlikely that he’s used as a traditional closer so consistent saves while Corey Knebel is on the shelf may be unlikely. But, things are still s trending in the right direction, especially if Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes are less than stellar. Regardless of save opportunties, Hader is becoming one of the most valuable relievers and on the season Hader has 25 strikeouts in 11.2 innings supporting a 61% K% and a 0.21 SIERA. Damn.
Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.
Fastball Grades
This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.
• Alex Colome has had some struggles of late and although he allowed the first two batters to reach base last night, he didn’t allow one to score and held onto the one run lead for his second save of the year. On the year Colome has allowed four runs in 3.1 innings, which can happen early on for a reliever after a rough outing but what’s troublesome is his 4.8% K% and 14.3% BB%. For his career, Colome has a 11.6% SwStr% and this year it’s only at 8.6%.
Colome displayed fantastic swing and miss stuff in 2016 paired with a better walk rate, but both of those went in the wrong direction last year and that trend has continued this year. There seems to be no real concerns with his velocity and he will have a long leash in Tampa Bay but it’s worth noting his appearances here on out. If he continues to slip look for Sergio Romo, Jose Alvarado, and Chaz Roe to be next in line. Roe and Alvarado shared the 6th and 7th innings last night with Romo getting four outs and three strikeouts to set up Colome with the save.
• Rough start to the Greg Holland era in St. Louis. Holland came on in the 10th inning last night and walked four batters while only getting one out. Bud Norris finished the inning but the damage was done as Holland received the loss. The Cardinals didn’t pay Holland to give him just one save opportunity but it might take a few appearances in non-closing situations before he’s given the role. I’d expect Bud Norris to see the next save opportunity with Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, and Jordan Hicks setting up along with Holland.
As we enter the weekend, the Milwaukee bullpen continues to be the most volatile situation to speculate for saves. The word from the Brewers today regarding Corey Knebel was unfortunately bad news. According to the Milwaukee manager, Craig Counsell, Knebel will miss “a minimum of six weeks” with his left hamstring strain. For those who missed the injury, it was a lot worse than it sounds. Knebel fell to the ground after delivering a pitch in the 9th inning down 6 to 0 in Thursday night’s game against the Cubs.
While the closer grid might start green it doesn’t take too long for some different colors to emerge.
• The current situation in Anaheim has been interesting to say the least. Blake Parker’s hold on the job was never seen as particularly strong and he hasn’t done himself any favors early on this year, needing to be bailed out by Keynan Middleton as Al Melchior mentioned last night. I’ve changed this situation to yellow and added Middleton to the grid. It might be anyone’s guess who gets the next save opportunity but I’m keeping Parker in the lead for now. If Mike Scioscia wants to go with the hot hand he could turn to Middleton again and there’s also Bedrosian who’s been deployed a setup man thus far as well as Jim Johnson who does have that trademarked closer experience. At some point this situation might settle but for now there are a few guys who are worthy of speculative adds but also not provide any saves. Helpful, I know.
• As far as other colors go, we’re sticking with Baltimore at yellow before moving to a code red. Brad Brach obviously has not looked effective so far but until we see O’Day pitching in a save situation or Buck Showalter address the situation, we’re going to keep Brach in the lead. Darren O’Day did get some action on Monday but he entered in the 8th inning in a 6-1 game. It’s possible he’s was getting some work in as he had only pitched on Thursday so far this season. O’Day did look effective, striking out a pair in a perfect inning. If he’s still on the wire I would definitely look to grab him over Mychal Givens.
• We had Pedro Baez as the next-in-line in LA but it looks like Josh Fields is the man of the eighth for now. Baez looked good getting four perfect outs but he entered the game in the fourth inning. Josh Fields meanwhile took the ball in the eighth and pitched around a hit, striking out two batters. If something were to happen to Kenley Jansen I would keep an eye on Baez, but Fields would be the man to own. Speaking of Jansen, after taking the loss in his first appearance this year he doubled down with a blown save tonight, allowing three earned in the ninth. Jansen’s velocity has been down a few ticks this year and consider me worried. We don’t know if something is going on yet but I would look to grab Fields if I was in need of saves. If one is willing to chase saves in Miami, they should be willing to use a speculative add on Fields. Jansen certainly has a laughably tighter grasp on the role than Brad Ziegler but the payoff on getting the Dodgers closer is much greater than one in Miami. I’m a little hesitant to jump the gun here and make this situation yellow, but better safe than sorry with a big payoff if Jansen is to miss anytime.