With Jason Heyward eating medium leverage situations for breakfast in the big leagues, and Jesus Montero still trying to find his way as a 20-year-old in Triple, the Marlins’ Mike Stanton has grabbed the crown as the “best hitter in the minor leagues” and run away with it. The 20-year-old outfielder smacked three homeruns yesterday afternoon, giving him five within the last 30 hours or so. His ISO stands at .462 this morning, and his walk rate has risen up to match his usually high strikeout rate in the early going. Obviously, small sample size warnings apply.

After a 341 plate appearance cameo with Florida’s Double-A affiliate last year (.344 wOBA), they sent him back there this year, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing now (.495 wOBA by my calculation), it’s won’t be long before they bump him up to Triple-A. Once that happens, it’s only a matter of time before he surfaces with the big league team.

Chris Coghlan has yet to find the BABIP magic he had during his Rookie of the Year campaign last season, and his wOBA sits at just .182. Cameron Maybin is a bit iffy with concussion-like symptoms after colliding with teammate Gaby Sanchez, though he did suit up last night. The Marlins certainly have some need for another outfielder, but whether or not they decide to promote their best prospect will probably end up being a matter of future payroll.

Since the season is already more than two weeks old, Stanton’s free agency has already been pushed back bya year. However, if the Marlins wanted to push back his arbitration years before calling him up, they would have to wait until the end of May, which doesn’t help us fantasy owners any.

If there’s any prospect in the game that could come up and have a Ryan Braun-like impact in the second half as a rookie, it’s Stanton. He might not hit for average right away (or ever), but the power is off the charts (.283 ISO in the minors), and the RBI opportunities will be there with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Sanchez (.399 combined OBP) in the lineup. Stanton is still available in all most leagues, and if you have a particularly deep bench, or are willing to carry a dead spot for a month, then by all means go out and grab him before the rush. Otherwise, keep an Florida’s outfield situation over the next few weeks, and get ready to pounce once they appear to have a need. He’s an option in all leagues.

With the worst wOBA in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles club is looking to kick-start a sluggish offense. As a result, the organization promoted triple-A first baseman Rhyne Hughes to the Majors on Saturday.

Hughes is a name you may not be familiar with. He was not amongst Baltimore’s Top 10 prospects for 2010 when we published the list prior to the season. He did not make Baseball America’s Top 30 list. Hughes was originally acquired from the Rays in ’09 during a late-season trade involving veteran catcher Gregg Zaun. He was drafted by the Rays in the eighth round of the ’04 draft out of a small community college.

The 26-year-old first baseman will make his MLB debut when he is penciled into the lineup for the first time. He was hitting .353/.421/.667 in 51 at-bats this season at triple-A. He had three homers and five doubles in 15 games. Last season with three teams, Hughes hit .279/.349/.506 with 25 homers and 79 RBI in 515 at-bats. He also, unfortunately, had a strikeout rate of 33%.

The left-hand hitting Hughes could platoon with the right-hand hitting Garrett Atkins, who has a .242 wOBA, but is actually performing better against right-handed pitchers right now (He’s 0-for-16 vs LHPs). Hughes has a career OPS of .843 against right-handers (compared to .716 vs LHPs).

From a fantasy perspective, Hughes has little value unless he can wrestle the full-time job away from Atkins. The rookie should be monitored in AL-only leagues but, hey, he’s no Kila Ka’aihue.

From April 16 at FanGraphs: Ka’aihue probably fits best with the O’s. The club is second last in the American League in on-base percentage (.309) and is 11th (out of 14 teams) in slugging percentage. Those just happen to be the two areas that Ka’aihue excels in. He slugged 37 homers between double-A and triple-A in ‘08 and followed that up with 17 at triple-A in ‘09. He’s walked 100+ times in each of the past two seasons and had a walk rate of 18.4% in ‘09. His BB/K rate was an impressive 1.20.

It was inevitable. After just two weeks, the Mets summoned hot shot prospect Ike Davis from the minors to replace Mike Jacobs, the last big power hitting prospect produced by their farm system. Davis had a fantastic big league debut, going 2-for-4 with a run driven in against the Cubbies last night, and the tabloids already have him pegged as the future of the franchise. That’s all well and good, but what does Davis’ arrival mean for fantasy owners?

Supposedly, Davis will play every day at least until the incumbent Daniel Murphy returns, which is good news. There’s no point in calling up your best prospect in April and playing him only sparingly (apparently they haven’t realized that with Jenrry Mejia yet). Davis mashed in the minors, with a .226 ISO and an 11.7 BB% between two levels last year, and he started off this season with a .364/.500/.636 performance in 42 Triple-A plate appearances.

His bane is lefty pitchers, and has been since his days at Arizona State (seriously, who had him beating college teammate and fellow 2008 first rounder Brett Wallace to majors?). Davis hit .267 (.369 BABIP) with a .110 ISO against southpaws in the minors, compared to .297 (.343 BABIP) with a .203 ISO vs. righties, though 191 and 478 at-bats aren’t the largest of sample sizes. He did hang in well to single off Sean Marshall last night, who fed him three curveballs and a slider.

CHONE forecasts a .231 batting average with 11 homers and 39 RBI for Davis in 114 games this year, while PECOTA’s 50th-percentile pegs him for almost the same: .231-11-41. That puts him in Casey Kotchman/Lyle Overbay territory, though Davis certainly offers the potential for more. My hunch is that he’s perform very well his first time through the league, but will start to come back down to earth once the book gets out. At that point he’d be a sell high candidate.

Davis was added to the player pool in Yahoo! leagues this morning, and chances are the Mets’ fan in your league already grabbed him. If not, he’s a worthy add for the bench if your first basemen are underperforming, or if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league. Just make sure you sit him against southpaws.

The first few weeks of April are usually pretty quiet for the game’s best prospects, but once May rolls around, teams will begin to call them up after effectively pushing the player’s free agency and arbitration clock back a year. It’s a sound strategy, because usually whatever is sacrificed during those first few weeks of the season (a win? maybe two at most?) is more than recouped in the extra couple of months of team control.

Ryan Braun surfaced in May of 2007 and became not just one of the best hitters in the league, but a savior for many fantasy owners. Evan Longoria did the same in 2008 and last year it was Andrew McCutchen. Finding that one big time prospect who goes from the bush leagues to fantasy megastar is never an easy task, but that’s what we’re here for.

Cleveland’s current catching situation features the tag team of Lou Marson and Mike Redmond, who’ve combined to reach base just four times in 27 plate appearances so far this season. At some point soon the Indians will summon uber-prospect Carlos Santana from Triple-A, who they comically acquired from the Dodgers for Casey Blake and whatever was left on his contract. Our own Marc Hulet ranked him as the seventh best prospect in the game, and the second best catching prospect overall.

In this young season, Santana has gone all Albert Pujols on the Triple-A International League. His triple-slash line sit at .450/.500/1.150, a year after posting a .418 wOBA in Double-A. Six of his nine hits have gone for extra bases (four homers, two doubles), and he’s come around to score seven times in five games. Santana has more walks (181) than strikeouts (170) since 2008, which backs up his reputation as having supreme knowledge of the strike zone. The defensive ability is there as well, so a position switch is not coming anytime soon.

The catching situation in fantasyland is pretty grim beyond the top six or eight players, but Santana could jump right into that mix once he’s promoted. Cleveland has to keep him in the minors roughly two weeks to push free agency back by a year, but about two months to push arbitration back. Count on a mid-to-late May call up.

Santana sports the power, the bat control, and the discipline to be an impact fantasy player once the Indians calls him up, and he’s clearly the best catcher in their organization at the moment. The fact that he plays such a scarce position makes him even more attractive to fantasy owners. If you’re willing to live with a dead spot on your bench for the next month or so, then by all means grab Santana, who’s owned in just 3% of Yahoo! leagues. If not, then make sure you keep an eye on Cleveland’s transactions, because chances are he’ll be an upgrade over your current catching situation or a fantastic piece of trade bait.

On their way to New York to play the Mets on Opening Day, the Marlins stopped in at Greensboro on Saturday, the home of their Single-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League. It was a big deal in Greensboro and it gave the city a chance to see major league talent up close. The big attractions were stars like Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla. But just as important to the crowd was the chance to catch up with former members of both the Greensboro Bats and Greensboro Grasshoppers.

In all, eight players on the Marlins Travel Roster played minor league ball in Greensboro. Neither Josh Johnson nor Chris Volstad appeared Saturday, meaning that the biggest local star for the Marlins was 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. The Marlins hope they will have another candidate for Rookie of the Year Award honors this year with Gaby Sanchez, who won the first base job in Spring Training.

Most people consider Logan Morrison to be the Marlins’ first baseman of the future but Sanchez gets first crack to establish himself in the majors. I got to ask some of the coaches about the two youngsters, the decision-making process and the future for both players.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez insisted that the first base job was up for grabs and that Morrison would have been the choice with a better Spring.

“(Sanchez) came into Spring Training in open competition with Logan Morrison, another Hopper,” Gonazlez said. “He won the competition. That’s not saying anything bad about Logan Morrison because he’s going to be a very good major leaguer. Gaby won that competition and is going to start the season with us. Now he’s got to produce. If it doesn’t happen, which I hope doesn’t happen, Logan Morrison is a pretty good backup plan.”

Hitting coach Jim Presley also said that it was a Spring Training decision.

“Two great young players going head-to-head,” Presley described the situation. “Obviously Gaby won that one, he hit over .400 and Morrison had a little bit of a struggle early. Gaby’s a little bit ahead of him right now but Morrison has a little bit of a bad hand from last year and I think that affected him a little bit. He’s going to be a great hitter. He’s going to be in the big leagues pretty soon and going to be there for a long time.”

Putting aside the wisdom of deciding a starting job based on 55 at-bats for Sanchez (.364/.410/.582) and 43 for Morrison (.209/.244/.326), the fact that Morrison was in line for a job after just 278 at-bats above A-ball shows how much the organization values the 22-year old.

“He stays inside the ball and has big-time juice,” Presley said of Morrison. “He hits the ball the other way so well we were trying to get him to turn on the ball in. He started doing that. He’s going to play in the big leagues, there’s no doubt about that.”

Last year, 12 of the 25 qualified first basemen in the majors hit 30 HR. Neither Sanchez nor Morrison projects with that type of power right now but Presley was unconcerned about that.

About Sanchez, Presley said, “Could he hit 20 in the big leagues? Sure. Will he hit 30? Probably not. He’s got the right approach and he’s going to hit .300 in the big leagues for you. He’s not your prototypical power hitting first baseman but he knows what he’s doing.”

The four projection systems on FanGraphs predict Sanchez to hit from between .270 and .279 this season. The big difference is playing time. Marcel gives him only 212 ABs while ZiPS projects 480. The most HR projected by any system is 15.

Presley noted that Morrison’s hand injury limited his chances to win the starting job this year.

“He was recovered from it but he didn’t get to play a lot and I think that affected him,” Presley said. “He had to take the winter off and kind of let it regroup. Guys trying to win a position, you want to see them go to Winter Ball and Gaby did that. He went to the Dominican and played and that made a difference.”

In 26 games in the DWL, Sanchez posted a .232/.333/.453 line in 95 at-bats.

Gonzalez indicated that the club has considered a plan to get both Sanchez and Morrison in the lineup at the same time.

“You could move Coghlan to second and put Morrison in left field and there you go,” Gonzalez said. “But who knows, down the road you make a few moves and that plan goes out the window.”

Bench coach Carlos Tosca agreed that if the two were to be in the same lineup, it would be Morrison as the one to switch positions.

“Mo would be more of a candidate to do that than Gaby would,” Tosca said.

While Tosca seemed doubtful of them both playing together, he did think either could be assets defensively at first base.

“Defensively they’re good first basemen. They play a little different. Gaby’s a little more of a routine type of guy while Mo is a little more fly by the seat of your pants type guy but they both have a chance to be good first basemen.”

Sanchez got off to a rough start defensively but he did deliver two hits on Opening Day. But even if he struggles offensively, expect Sanchez to get enough time to work out of any slumps.

“If you know anything about our manager,” Tosca said, “ he’s a very patient man. He’s going to give Gaby or anybody else an opportunity to show what they’re capable of doing.”

So Morrison finds himself at Triple-A New Orleans, which opens its season on Thursday. Gonzalez referenced Coghlan when asked about a potential promotion for Morrison in 2010. After putting up a .970 OPS in 25 games in New Orleans last year, Coghlan got the call to the majors in the second week of May.

The lesson for Morrison and his fantasy owners is that if he produces in Triple-A, he will get a shot. Of course, Coghlan came up to provide infield depth and because he produced he worked his way into the starting job in left field. So if Morrison does get a promotion, it does not necessarily mean that Sanchez is heading to the bench.

This year could be a make-or-break year for Sanchez, at least with the Marlins. If he does not establish himself as a starter this year, it will likely be much more difficult fending off Morrison after he has a full year in the high minors under his belt. But at the same time, fantasy owners of Sanchez should be encouraged that he will not get yanked at the first sign of trouble.

(I couldn’t help myself.)

It seems that Mike Leake has taken the Reds’ fifth starter job, making him the first player to skip the minors since Xavier Nady in 2000 and the first pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1994. (Shame on him for outpacing our crack staff here at FanGraphs, but his player page will be up as soon as he plays a game.) Prospect Maven Marc Hulet will be giving us a detailed scouting report on Leake shortly, so I will focus here on finding a good comp for Leake. That might help us appraise his chances for success in the coming year.

Darren Dreifort doesn’t really make a for a good comp because he had what was considered at the time to be plus-plus tools or stuff, and he also came up as a reliever. Nady’s obviously not a good comp, though with Leake taking the ball for Dusty Baker, he may have as many TJ surgeries in his future as the Cubbies’ outfielder (zing!). Yes he pitches with a different hand, but could Jim Abbott provide us the best comp for Leake?

Abbott was also a first round draft pick that skipped the minor leagues. Just as there’s some skepticism about Leake’s eventual upside, there were rumblings around baseball that the Angels decision to bring Abbott up so quickly was about ticket sales and publicity. Leake is considered a good athlete for his position but his tools are doubted. Abbott was a little taller than Leake (6’3″ to Leake’s 6’0″), but they seem to be of similar build, clocking in around 200-210 pounds each. Mariano Rivera once talked of Abbott hitting home runs in batting practice, and he tripled in a spring training game once, so Abbott was an athletic guy too.

Abbot’s bread and butter was a fastball-curveball combination and eventually succeeded for a while because of slightly above-average control. Leake’s best two pitches are a fastball and a curveball and has above-average command of those two pitches. If only they pitched with the same hand, they’d seem to make a solid comparison.

In some ways, the Abbott comp could be seen as a compliment. After all, Abbott is one of only fourteen left-handers to have more than 12 wins at the age of 21 in the last 80 years. But of course, that’s a terrible stat to use to measure a pitcher, and it’s the other statistics that we are more interested in. Abbott did win those 12 games with a below-average ERA (97 ERA+ in 1989), and aside from the inspirational aspect, his career was not particularly long or distinguished. Given the possibility of an above-average lineup behind him, Leake could win some games in 2010. But those picking him should probably not hope for much more from the Reds’ starter than Abbott gave the Angels in his debut season. Abbott had a 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 5.71 K/9 that year.

I’m going to tread softly on Jeff’s territory today by looking at some of the bigger named prospects that we known are going to miss some significant time in 2010. Most of these players can (or would have been) found amongst their organizations’ Top 15 prospects. Tuck these names away and don’t forget about them once they get healthy, especially if you’re playing in a keeper league.

Jared Mitchell | OF | White Sox: Ankle surgery will sideline the White Sox’ top amateur draft pick from 2009 for the entire season after be injured himself in a spring training game. Mitchell appeared in 34 low-A games in his pro debut and posted a .396 wOBA with a strikeout rate of 34.8%. His raw for a college pick so the missed time could hurt. The injury moves fellow ’09 draft pick Trayce Thompson up the depth chart in the White Sox system.

Chris Pettit | OF | Angels: I feel bad for Pettit. He had a good shot at breaking camp with the Angels and, at 25 years of age, he’s no spring chicken. Now the former college senior signee out of Loyola Marymount will miss the entire 2010 season thanks to shoulder surgery. In 365 minor league games, Pettit has a .313 batting average and projects to be a solid platoon or No. 4 outfielder. Fellow prospects Terry Evans (immediately) and Peter Bourjos (later this season) stand to benefit.

Ryan Westmoreland | OF | Red Sox: Perhaps the most unfortunate injury of them all, Westmoreland recently underwent brain surgery for a life-threatening condition. There has been little said what impact this will have on his promising baseball career, but the good news is that he’s making progress. Reymond Fuentes, the club’s ’09 No. 1 draft pick, would have played with Westmoreland in low-A ball this season.

Mat Gamel | 3B | Brewers: A shoulder injury will sideline Gamel at least through the month of April, which will give Casey McGehee a head start on securing the third base job in Milwaukee. On the plus side, McGehee is overrated. On the downside, Gamel might be, too. A poor defensive third baseman, the prospect is likely headed for a position switch but he did not impress during his first taste of MLB action in ’09 by posting a .332 wOBA. Taylor Green is another player that could benefit from the injury.

A.J. Pollock | OF | Diamondbacks: Pollock is another ’09 first round draft pick that has suffered a serious injury. The outfielder will miss up to three months with a fracture in his elbow. Pollock had a modest pro debut in ’09 at low-A ball. He posted a .324 wOBA in 277 at-bats. Fellow ’09 draft picks Marc Krauss and Keon Broxton will have some time to scramble past Pollock on the depth chart.

Junichi Tazawa | RHP | Red Sox: The most recent big-named prospect to have his season ruined by injury, Tazawa will undergo Tommy John surgery in the very near future and miss the entire 2010 season, and perhaps part of ’11. It’s too bad, as the Japanese import made it to the Majors in his first pro season and would have battled Michael Bowden as the first starter recalled in the event of an injury to the big league rotation.

Jordan Brown | 1B | Indians: Last year, I listed Brown as one of the top underrated prospects in the game and stated that he deserved a shot to play in the Majors. Repeating triple-A, he then went out and hit .336/.381/.532 with a wOBA of .397 in 455 at-bats. The knock on Brown has been his lack of prototypical power for a first baseman, but he could easily have a career similar to Sean Casey (another former Indian). Brown will likely miss the first two months of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Matt LaPorta will man first base in Cleveland while Beau Mills will have some time to try and rebuild his prospect status in the upper minors.

Dellin Betances | RHP | Yankees: The Yankees right-hander actually had Tommy John surgery back in August but he’s expected to miss most, if not all, of 2010. That actually might be a good thing, as he’ll be Rule 5 eligible after the season, so the organization may want to keep him in rehab for the entire season so other organizations cannot get a good read on his health.

Desmond Jennings | OF | Rays: One of the best offensive prospects in baseball, Jennings is currently dealing with a wrist injury. His injury status is not considered serious at this point, but wrist injuries have a tendency to linger, which could affect him for longer than some might think. The injury could buy Matt Joyce (who is also dealing with an injury) some more time to establish himself in the Rays outfield.

If there are any key prospects not mentioned that project to miss more than two months time in 2010, feel free to mention it in the comments section.

Some final cuts were made today, and a closer “decision” was made. Let’s get right into our first of many 2010 waiver wire articles, shall we?

Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Pat Neshek
Well, it looks like Jon Rauch is not the winner of the Minnesota closer sweepstakes. Manager Ron Gardenhire announced that the Twins will go with a committee at the position, and Aaron Gleeman is right to predict some media hand-wringing and hair-pulling concerning the decision. In fact, as he points out, that insanity (or inanity) has already begun. While we applaud the decision from a real baseball viewpoint (a Mijares/Neshek platoon could be deadly in the ninth), it does make things difficult on fantasy owners. Jon Rauch still has the best package from an overall skills standpoint, but everyone on this list has had a good spring save Mijares. If you need some cheap saves however you can get them, take the guy from this group that is still available on your wire. It will be your closer lottery ticket.

Chris Young (SD)
There really isn’t any news to back up this item, but Young has pitched well this spring and went un-drafted in many leagues (319.46 ADP). He leads the Friars with strikeouts (16 in 17.2 innings) and has a nice ERA to boot (3.57 if you care about that sorta thing). The walk rate this spring (10 walks so far) is not terribly exciting, but he the surgery he’s recovering from did not show a torn labrum – just fraying – so there’s a chance he can recover to his former glory. Let’s not forget that he was a decent pitcher before last year’s (hurt) disasterpiece, regularly putting up k-rates over eight against average walk rates. Oh, and then there’s that home park that he plays in, too.

David Hernandez
Right after touting Chris Tillman as a good $1 option just last week, the Orioles go and reassign the youngster so that he can get more work in with his new pitch. It’s a testament to the young pitching talent the O’s have acquired that the guy behind him is also interesting – provided you are in an AL-only league and looking for a spot-starter / end of bench option. Now, Hernandez didn’t strike many people out last year (K/9), and he gave up way too many fly balls (FB%), but that was not the case in the minor leagues. Well, at least on one front. He’s always been a fly-ball pitcher (44.5% career in the minors) but he’s always struck out gobs of players (10.12 K/9 career in minors), too. He’s no slop pitcher, as his 93 MPH fastball is augmented by three decent pitches – so here’s a bet that Hernandez will look a lot better in his second attempt at the bigs.

Protect your windshields, Braves fans: Jason Heyward’s potent lefty bat is coming to Turner Field. The Atlanta Braves officially announced that the best position prospect in the game will open the 2010 season as the club’s starting right fielder.

Just 20, Heyward has pummeled opposing pitchers since the Braves selected him with the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft. His all-around talents have earned the admiration of all the prospect mavens: Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law named the Georgia prep product the best talent in the minors, while Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked him number two. John Sickels gave Heyward (who would be a junior had he attended UCLA) an A grade.

The 6-4, 220 pound man-child made his full-season debut in 2008, spending almost the entire year at Low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League (he got a late-season cameo in the High-A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach). Collectively, Heyward hit .316/.381/.473 in 533 plate appearances. He displayed some pop (.157 Isolated Power), while controlling the zone pretty well for such a young player (9.6 percent walk rate, 16.6 percent strikeout rate). Heyward was polished on the base paths as well, stealing 15 bags in 18 tries.

This past year, Heyward zoomed from Myrtle Beach to Double-A Mississippi of the Southern League, while getting a few trips to the plate in the International League for Triple-A Gwinnett. In 422 total PA, Heyward authored a .323/.408/.555 line, with a .232 ISO. Heyward walked as often as he whiffed, with 51 BBs and K’s apiece. While not a massive stolen base threat, he had 10 SB in 11 attempts.

Without question, Heyward is a premium keeper pick. But what can he contribute in 2010? CHONE projects Atlanta’s golden child to hit near a league-average clip, with a .258/.324/.416 triple-slash (98 wRC+). That jives with Heyward’s 2009 Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, which was .255/.321/.423 according to Minor League Splits. ZiPS is more optimistic that he can produce right away, forecasting .275/.341/.429 (110 wRC+). PECOTA likes Heyward even more, with a .280/.348/.477 projected line.

Heyward is a prodigious talent, a 20 year-old with the plate approach of a 30 year-old. Though it would be expecting too much for him to be a force at the plate right away, Heyward’s offensive floor for the upcoming season is probably that of an average MLB hitter. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he easily surpasses that level, with a batting line somewhere between his ZIPS and PECOTA projections. The only real quibble regarding Heyward is durability: he missed time during the ’09 regular season with oblique, hip and heel injuries, and he was sent home early from the Arizona Fall League with a hamstring strain and a sore back.

At worst, Heyward figures to be average in 2010. At best, he could be a key contributor in all fantasy leagues. This may be the last time that you can get him without giving up a primo draft pick. Just don’t park too close to the ball park.

(As a side note, Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz will split time in left field. While that arrangement should make for a productive real-world tandem, there’s little fantasy value to be had.)

There’s an Oriole starter that quietly moving up draft boards and garnering dark-horse votes for the 2010 ROY. He’s being lauded for his poise and polish, and fantasy managers are snatching him up despite his formidable AL East opponents. Talk of his dominating college and minor league performances spreads from water cooler to water cooler and the hype is growing.

That pitcher is not Chris Tillman. Still valued at $0 in AL-only leagues on LastPlayerPicked.com, Tillman is languishing on draft boards and isn’t inspiring the same excitement currently, despite possibly more upside. Is there an open secret sitting in the shadows behind Brian Matusz? Maybe it’s the whole left-handed thing.

It seems a fait accompli that Tillman will rise to the top of this rotation… eventually. The numbers from the minor leagues, though, don’t necessarily bear out all that optimism. For every positive, there’s seemingly a negative that brings an asterisk.

Take his strikeout rate – Tillman had a nice, steady strikeout rate all the way through the minors as he rode his 92+ MPH fastball and big breaking curveball to a 9.8 K/9 career minor league rate that never once dipped below a strikeout per inning. That’s beautiful. Less exciting is his career minor league 3.89 BB/9 that was actually over four walks per nine in the majority of his stops along the way. Much of the optimism about Tillman comes from his stellar work in AAA last year, when he put up an outlier walk rate (2.4 BB/9) that he had never once shown before. In his short time in the majors last year, the walk rate looked okay (3.3 BB/9), but the strikeout rate wasn’t there. Though he’s still young (21) and did most of his minor league work before he could drink, Tillman needs to repeat his 2009 control to really impress the general public, it seems.

Then there’s the pitching mix. The scouts like his fastball and his curveball, but it was his changeup that was the only pitch that scored positively in linear weights last year. He also gave up too many fly balls on mid-to-high-heat as Heat Mapper Dave Allen showed so beautifully late last year. That problem seems commensurate with his minor league career, where he had about an unimpressive one-to-one groundball-to-flyball ratio.

Can a fly-ball pitcher succeed in Baltimore, or can Tillman at least push his ratio back to his minor league level? No matter what, the home run rate should fall. His 2.08 HR/9 rate came on the heels of a 15.2 HR/FB percentage that shouldn’t continue.

There’s also talk of Tillman developing a cutter, which, as Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies points out, might help him locate his pitches in a new part of the zone in between his high heat and his low curveball. Although the cutter is en vogue, and it doesn’t work for everyone, Tillman might really benefit from augmenting his pitching mix. Anything to keep him from grooving fastballs at the belt would, of course, help.

Taken as a whole, there’s more to like than dislike in the Tillman package. If you squint just right, you could see this young pitcher find his old dominant strikeout rate, push the groundball-to-flyball ratio back to his normal (if mediocre) levels, exhibit his new-found control once again, and drastically improve his results. That’s all without the intrigue of the new pitch added in. In an AL-only league, that’s certainly worth a dollar.