Archive for Prospects

Promotion Watch: Zach Britton

The Baltimore Orioles are in the process of breaking in a cadre of a highly-acclaimed pitching prospects. Brian Matusz in entrenched in the big league rotation, while Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have struggled to translate their success in the minors to the highest level. Another blue-chip arm may soon make his major league debut — Zachary Britton could bump the oft-battered Brad Bergesen out of the rotation at some point. Even if Britton doesn’t get the call later this year, he’s a vital part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort. Let’s examine his long-term value.

The O’s took Britton out of a Texas prep school in the third round of the 2006 draft. The 6-foot-3 lefty added lots of zip to his fastball during his senior year — Baseball America noted that his heater climbed from 86-87 MPH to 92-93 MPH — and he also possessed what BA called a “power curve.” Britton’s velocity did decline during his last few starts leading up to the draft, though. He tossed 34 innings in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League that summer, and he struggled to control the zone (5.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 5.41 FIP). After the season, BA said that Britton sat 86-90 MPH in the Appy League, though they predicted he’d crack the 90’s more frequently as his 180 pound frame filled out.

Baltimore took a cautious approach with Britton in 2007, assigning him to the short-season New York-Penn League. He had 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.1 HR/9 in 63.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Britton’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 3.95, and he generated ground balls at an impressive clip (64.5 GB%). Baseball America said that he showed “the live low-90’s fastball that made him a third-round pick,” while also developing a sharp slider in the instructional league.

In 2008, Britton enjoyed a breakout season in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Pitching 147.1 frames, he used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven batters per nine innings, hand out 3 BB/9 and give up 0.5 homers per nine. Britton’s adjusted FIP was 3.92, and he maintained his Brandon Webb-like ground ball rate (63.8 GB%). The next year in the High-A Carolina League, Britton whiffed 8.4 per nine, walked 3.5 and coughed up 0.4 HR/9 in 140 innings. Scorching the earth with a 65 GB%, Britton posted a 3.37 adjusted FIP.

Leading up to 2010, Britton earned plenty of superlatives from scouting types. Baseball America named him the number 63 prospect in the game. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect. “Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I’m pro-Britton,” said Sickels. ESPN’s Keith Law was an even bigger fan, ranking Britton 25th on his top 100 list. Law liked Britton’s solid punch out rates and extreme ground ball tendencies, and noted the development of the lefty’s changeup:

Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters…He would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Britton began the year with the Bowie Baysox of the Double-A Eastern League, where he posted rates of 7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in 87 innings. He continued to induce grounders like few others (64.1 GB%) while compiling a 3.44 adjusted FIP. Bumped up to the Triple-A International League, Britton has 5.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and nary a homer surrendered in 27.2 IP. The 22-year-old is — you guessed it — burning lots of worms with a 72.2 GB%, and his adjusted FIP sits at 3.47.

The chances of Britton getting ample major league innings this season are slim — the O’s aren’t playing for anything of consequence, and the southpaw is a little more than 30 frames away from his previous career high workload. In keeper leagues, though, Britton is an intriguing option. He’s not going to post elite K rates, but that’s mostly because he’s too busy getting batters to smack the ball into the dirt. Britton misses a solid number of bats, and his control has improved enough that it doesn’t figure to hinder his development. While Tillman and Arrieta get more attention, Britton might just be the better long-term buy.


Marlins call on Morrison

You’ve probably heard by now, but Marlins’ left fielder Chris Coghlan tore the meniscus in his left knee after hitting Wes Helms in the face with a shaving-cream pie following the his walk-off single on Sunday. He could be out up to eight weeks depending on whether or not surgery is required. Florida replaced Coghlan on the active roster by calling up one of the game’s very best prospects, first baseman Logan Morrison.

Morrison, 22, was declared the 18th best prospect in the game prior to the 2009 season by Baseball America before they ranked him 20th before this season. No. 20 in baseball was only good enough for No. 2 on the Marlins, who had some kid named Mike Stanton ahead of him, but that’s okay, we won’t hold it against him. “Morrison has the best plate discipline in the organization,” said the crew at BA of the lefty swinger. “He has a balanced, flat swing that enables him to keep his bat in the zone a long time. He has plus power and can put on a batting-practice show that nearly rivals those of Jacksonville teammate Mike Stanton.”

The scouting report sounds wonderful, and the minor league stats are just as impressive. He hit .332/.402/.494 in A-ball in 2008, then followed it up with a.277/.408/.439 performance last year, though he missed most of April and May with a broken bone in his right hand. The 666th overall pick in the 2005 draft has ratcheted it back up to his 2008 levels this year, hitting .313/.424/.502 almost exclusively in Triple-A. Aside from a pronounced split last season, Morrison hasn’t shown much weakness against lefthanders in the bush leagues.

A first baseman by trade, the Marlins have gotten Morrison some reps in left field in each of the last two seasons, which is where he’ll primarily play in the big leagues. Florida isn’t shy about sticking guys in left with little to no experience at the position, they did it with Coghlan just last year and with Miguel Cabrera back in the day. Thankfully we don’t have to worry about defensive value, just playing time.

The team has indicated that Morrison will share playing time in left with Emilio Bonifacio, depending largely on the pitching matchup. Bonifacio has a .286 career wOBA in 765 plate appearances (to his credit, it’s .314 this year), so I can’t imagine he’ll hold onto this job for long, not if Morrison proves competent against big league lefties. I’d give it two weeks or so before he’s playing every day.

CHONE projected a rock solid .264/.344/.409 batting line for Morrison before the season, and his MLE according to MinorLeagueSplits.com isn’t far off at .249/.346/.378. Morrison is a 1B by default in Yahoo! leagues, so it’ll take a week or two until he picks up OF eligibility as well. Even if he overshoots the projections and MLE a bit (say .275 AVG with a .160 ISO), Morrison still isn’t a top tier fantasy first baseman, but he’d make for a damn fine third outfielder. That value only increases in NL-only or deep leagues.

Morrison is in tonight’s lineup, batting second between leadoff hitter Hanley Ramirez and Gaby Sanchez (.368 wOBA), not a terrible place to hit. If he stays there, the RBI and runs scored opportunities should be plentiful.


Recent Promotions: Josh Bell

We’re well into July now and the trade deadline is right around the corner. The Orioles’ figure to move several pieces between now and then, with Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada getting the most face time on the trade rumor circuit. Whether or not they get moved within the next two weeks or during the August waiver period is a different story all together, but once those two are gone, the path will be clear for top prospect Josh Bell to get regular playing time for the O’s.

Bell was up with Baltimore earlier this month (a clean .200/.200/.200 batting line in 15 PA) before going back down to Triple-A to get some at-bats during the All Star break. He’s back now, but has mostly ridden the bench as the vets get showcased for their (eventual) new teams. Acquired in the George Sherrill deal, Baseball America ranked Bell as the team’s second best prospect before this season.

“[Bell] has above-average power and a good approach,” said BA’s write-up, “showing the ability to work counts to get on base.” His minor league track record backs it up; His career ISO above A-ball is a hefty .209 in 827 plate appearances. Despite being a switch-hitter, Bell has a considerable platoon split (.687 OPS vs. LHP, .875 vs. RHP), enough to garner whispers about becoming a full-time lefthanded hitter. Considering some of the power lefthanded starters in the AL East, that may not be such a good thing.

I’m not sure Bell has much to offer your team during the remainder of this season, so his value is primary tied up in keeper leagues. There’s enough power in his bat that 20 homers over a full season is very possible as soon as 2011, though he might not bring such a high average right away. The one thing he will be assured of in the future is playing time, with the O’s in full rebuild mode and Bell representing one of their core pieces. If Wigginton and Tejada get moved sooner rather than later, the O’s and fantasy owners alike will get a sneak preview the rest of the way.


Promotions: Wood & Maloney

The first place Cincinnati Reds called up a pair of lefthanded starters over the last two weeks or so to replace the injured Homer Bailey (following a Sam LeCure cameo) and Aaron Harang, and both bring some fantasy potential.

The first, and more permanent of the two is 23-year-old Travis Wood, who grabbed some headlines over the weekend by taking a perfect game into the 9th against the Phillies. His minor league career consists of lots of strikeouts (8.4 K/9), a good amount of ground balls (43.1% ground balls), and more recently very few walks (2.6 BB/9 over the last two seasons), three skills you want every young pitcher to possess. Wood has already made three starts for the Reds, sandwiching a pair of gems around one clunker.

The second of the two is 26-year-old Matt Maloney, who was acquired in the Kyle Lohse deal a few years back. His minor league career is similar to Wood’s in terms of strikeouts (8.7 K/9) and grounders (42.8%), though his track record of good control (2.7 BB/9) is quite a bit longer. In seven career big league starts over the last two seasons (two this year), Maloney has seen his strikeout rate dip, which is not unprecedented.

Baseball America rated Wood and Maloney as the team’s 7th and 8th best prospects coming into the season, saying both were back of the rotation candidates that lacked the pure stuff to be more. I’m a sucker for strikeout lefties, and both of these guys have the ability to post low- to mid-4.00’s ERA with enough wins and enough strikeouts to be serviceable fifth or sixth starters on a fantasy squad. I wouldn’t start them against high caliber offenses, but the NL Central offers enough weak competition to make the duo useful for the duration.

Thirteen of Cincinnati’s first 19 post-All Star break games are against the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, and Pirates, so there’s some decent matchups coming up. Wood is owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues, Maloney still 0%.


Travis Wood Flirts With Perfection

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.


Hudson Poised To Replace Peavy

After a sluggish start, Jake Peavy has pitched near the level that should have been expected during his first full season on the South Side of Chicago. In the DH league and residing in a park in which more fly balls become souvenirs, Peavy has 7.82 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 107 innings. Peavy may well be done for the year, however, as he suffered a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. With Peavy shelved, the White Sox may turn to top pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson hasn’t been named the guy to take Peavy’s scheduled Sunday start yet, but the club did pull him off the Futures Game roster.

Hudson, 23, was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2008 draft. Along with 13th-rounder Dexter Carter (who was actually part of the Peavy swap with San Diego), Hudson gave the White Sox a pair of sleeper prospects from Old Dominion. At the time Hudson was selected, Baseball America noted his sturdy 6-4, 220 pound frame frame, low-90’s velocity and promising secondary stuff. They did voice some concern about his throwing motion — Hudson was described as having “a long arm stroke in the back and a whipping sidearm motion through his release point,” which BA said led to life on his fastball but also inconsistent command.

After picking apart younger players in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League during the summer of 2008 (11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 69.2 IP), Hudson made his full-season debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2009. He didn’t stay there long, though — the right-hander zipped through Chicago’s farm system, appearing and dominating in the High-A Carolina League, Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

In 147.1 combined frames, Hudson whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, walked 2.1 per nine, served up 0.3 HR/9 and posted a 2.29 FIP. According to Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 2.90. Hudson’s overall line equated to a 3.60 major league FIP, per the same site. In September, Hudson completed his meteoric rise by reaching the big leagues. He pitched 18 innings for the White Sox, with a 14/9 K/BB ratio and a 5.62 xFIP.

Following that ’09 season, Hudson earned some prospect accolades. Baseball America named him the 66th-best prospect in the game, praising his 91-93 MPH heat and above-average changeup, while also mentioning that his low-80’s slider showed some promise (he also mixes in the occasional slow curve). John Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, calling Hudson a personal favorite.

With Freddy Garcia re-signing with the Pale Hose and the rest of the team’s starters remaining healthy (until now), Hudson has spent the entire season back at Triple-A Charlotte. Logging 93.1 innings, he’s got 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 2.90. Hudson’s work with the Knights translates to a 4.51 big league FIP, with 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. CHONE’s updated rest-of-season projection for Hudson is similar — a 4.60 neutralized ERA, with 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9

The draft steal has shown an impressive ability to fool hitters, and he has shown solid control to boot. What’s concerning for fantasy owners is how Hudson’s fly ball tendencies (42.1 GB% in ’09, 40.7 GB% this season) will play in U.S. Cellular Field. If he does indeed get the major league call, expect Hudson punch out batters at a healthy clip, keep the walks at a reasonable level and serve up his far share of homers.


Promotion Watch: J.P. Arencibia

With the Blue Jays in the middle of their annual fade from contention (16-24 since May 20th), there’s a very real chance that the team will look to sell high on All Star John Buck and his career (.351 wOBA, 1.4 WAR) year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season and is dangerously close to falling out of Type-B status, meaning he could walk with Toronto receiving nothing in return. They already have a competent backup in Jose Molina, but more importantly, they have a big time prospect mashing in Triple-A.

J.P. Arencibia, the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, is currently hitting .317/.366/.641 with 26 doubles and 21 homers in 306 plate appearances at Las Vegas, his second season at the level. He’s performing better away from hitter friendly Cashman Field (.365/.403/.730), and MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park neutralized batting line at .301/.350/.605, obviously still stellar. It’s quick the rebound for Arencibia, who hit just .236/.284/.444 at the same level and in the same park last season.

The former Tennessee Volunteer dropped out of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list this season after they ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game rior to the 2009 season. Our own Marc Hulet didn’t lose the faith, ranking Arencibia as the game’s 86th best prospect this March. The crew at BA said the 24-year-old’s “swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary,” but he still “could provide 20-25 homers on an annual basis and solid defense.”

Even if it comes with the caveat of a .230 or .240 AVG, a backstop that smacks 20 homers has plenty of fantasy value. Miguel Olivo has always seemed to find a fantasy home despite a similar skill set, right down to the hacktastic approach. In fairness, Arencibia boasts a career high walk rate this year and has steadily improved ever so slightly in that department through the years, but I don’t think we’ll ever see even a 50 walk season out of him.

If you’re hurting for a catcher, especially in an AL-only setup or a deep mixed league, Arencibia’s a great guy to stash on the bench for the inevitable call up. At the very least, I would expect the Jays to bring him up in September as an audition for next year’s starting job.


Promotion: Josh Bell

Baltimore Orioles placed DH/OF Luke Scott (left hamstring) on the DL; recalled 3B Joshua Bell from Triple-A Norfolk.

It’s unclear at this point how long Bell will be in the majors — Felix Pie (back) will soon be activated from the DL, and the Orioles claim there’s no connection between Bell’s promotion and a transaction involving Ty Wigginton or Miguel Tejada. Whether this is a cup of coffee or something more substantive, Bell’s the best position prospect in the system not named Manny Machado. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers (along with RHP Steve Johnson) last July for LHP George Sherrill.

A 6-foot-3 switch-hitter, Bell was originally a fourth-round selection out of Florida in the 2005 draft. At the time he was drafted, Baseball America commended his plus power and strong arm, while noting disappointment amongst scouts that he didn’t firm up his soft frame. Bell bashed in rookie ball in ’05 and 2006 (a combined .312/.380/.486 in 454 plate appearances). In 2007, he hit .271/.331/.444 in 517 PA taken mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he got a late-season promotion to the High-A California League). Bell walked 8.1% of the time, punched out 27.1% and had a .173 Isolated Power.

Prior to the 2008 season, Bell shed 30 pounds from his burly build. He got off to a .273/.373/.455 start in 220 PA in the Cal League, drawing ball four 14.1%, whiffing 25.6% and posting a .182 ISO in a favorable offensive environment. Unfortunately, Bell suffered a right knee injury that required surgery, ending his season in late May. He returned to the field and raked in 2008, however — in 518 PA split between the Double-A Southern League (Dodgers) and Eastern League (O’s), Bell batted .295/.376/.516, with a 11.8 BB%, 21.9 K% and a .221 ISO.

Heading into 2010, Baseball America rated Bell as the second-best prospect in the Baltimore system. So did Marc Hulet, noting that former Dodgers pick possessed “an intriguing mix of power and patience.” John Sickels rated Bell fourth in the Orioles’ organization, regarding him “more as a solid regular than a future star.”

At Norfolk this season, Bell hit .266/.311/.455 in 309 PA. His plate discipline was off-kilter, as he has walked just 5.8% while striking out 26.2%. Bell still hit for power, however, with a .189 ISO. Before the season began, ZiPS projected that he’d bat .242/.316/.396 in the majors. CHONE’s updated July projections predict Bell will put up a .244/.301/.398 triple-slash as an Oriole.

Bell’s low Triple-A walk rate is worth watching, though he does have a track record of working the count well. Setting that aside for the moment, two questions remain regarding his prospect status. First, can he play third base capably? Bell’s TotalZone defensive ratings have ranged from poor to brutal, while Baseball America’s scouting reports indicate that he’s now passable after being a butcher in years past. Second, is he really a switch-hitter? According to Minor League Splits, Bell holds a career .300/.366/.509 line batting from the left side, but just a .243/.322/.365 triple-slash as a righty batter. Some have suggested that Bell should give up switch-hitting, with the thinking being that his weak right-handed stroke hurts him to the extent that he’s worse off even if he has the platoon advantage.

Assuming he hasn’t suddenly become a hacker, Bell has the profile of an eventual quality big league hitter. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, but I wouldn’t recommend him strongly in mixed formats. We don’t know how long he’ll be in the majors, and Bell’s jumpy Triple-A line suggests that he could have some problems getting acclimated to facing big league pitching.


Promotion Watch: Brett Wallace

It’s not common to see a highly regarded prospect traded twice less than two years after being drafted, but that’s exactly what happened to now Blue Jays’ farmhand Brett Wallace. As you know, the Cardinals shipped him to Oakland in last year’s Matt Holliday deal, and they turned around and flipped him to Toronto in the third leg of the Roy Halladay trade this winter. Regardless of where he’s been playing, Wallace has done what he’s always done: flat out rake.

After hitting a combined .293/.367/.455 with 20 homers and 26 doubles across two levels and three teams last season, Wallace is mashing to the tune of .301/.363/.507 for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate this year. With 14 homers and 20 doubles, he’s not far off from last season’s totals in 261 fewer plate appearances. It’s worth noting that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter friendly environment in general, especially where Wallace is playing in Las Vegas. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park adjusted triple-slash line at .288/.351/.484, still outstanding.

The bat has never been an issue with Wallace. Baseball America said he “has outstanding bat control and knows how to get in favorable counts where he can do the most damage, allowing him to project for 20 homers per year despite not having outstanding raw power” when they named him the game’s 27th best prospect before the season. The question has been about position ever since he played at Arizona State, though the move to Toronto has cleared that picture up. After years of trying to fake it at third, Wallace has played first base exclusively since the trade (save for the occasional DH assignment) and figures to do so in the long run.

The good news is that Wallace retains 3B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, where he’s owned in just 1% of leagues. Obviously he hasn’t been called up yet, so anyone that does own him is likely in a deep keeper league looking towards the future. The Blue Jays are slowly fading out of contention in the ultra-competitive AL East, having gone 11-15 this month and 13-20 dating back to May 20th. Incumbent first baseman Lyle Overbay is having a simply dreadful year, checking in at -0.1 WAR through the team’s first 77 games. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season, so Toronto could simply cut bait and designate Overbay for assignment if they don’t get lucky and find a trade partner infatuated with name recognition. Point is, the first base job can open up for Wallace at any time, especially now that we’re past all the service time milestones and the team has basically acquired another year of cost control.

CHONE predicted a .252/.306/.401 batting line with 16 doubles and 23 homers in 489 at-bats for Wallace this year, but he’s obviously not going to meet that playing time projection. The triple-slash projection isn’t unreasonable for a rookie in a division packed to the gills with power pitching, but that doesn’t make Wallace any less of a fantasy option, especially with 3B eligibility. He’s a must have in a keeper league, and definitely has value for the rest of 2010 in any league assuming a late-July promotion (at the latest).


Branyan Back to Seattle

Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.