A little personal exuberance aside, it isn’t likely that Japan’s newest (possible) position player import is an impact fantasy bat this year. His skill set, situation, and even posting fee don’t suggest a breakout is on the way. We can dream — but the realities of the situation are likely to wake us up.

Three years ago, work in my previous incarnation as an educational publisher had me in Japan regularly. The Yakult Swallows played in Tokyo and tickets were much easier to get than Yomiuri Giants tickets, so I was a default fan of the Swallows, as bad as that sounds, and their center fielder Norichika Aoki.

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New year, new roles. That’s the 2012 outlook for a few prospects who are nearly big league-ready but now have to figure out where they stand in the wake of some recent transactions.

In this edition…

What the re-signing of Coco Crisp means for a former top prospect, why getting Jason Marquis is — gasp — a good move for the Twins and how the other side of the Carlos Quentin deal could play out.

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Sometime soon, Bryce Harper will be hittin’ bombs and blowin’ kisses as the Washington Nationals’ right fielder. But could “soon” actually be this spring? The most hyped prospect in draft history might have actually exceeded expectations at age 18 during his first pro season, hitting .297/.392/.501 with 17 home runs between the Low Class-A South Atlantic League and the Double-A Eastern League in 2011. And, according to Amanda Comak of The Washington Times, Nats manager Davey Johnson seems eager to get Harper’s 80-grade power in his lineup:

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As more trades, free agent signings and roster moves happen, I’ll continue to look at the resulting impact on prospects for the 2012 season. In this edition…

Why the Cubs’ acquisition of David DeJesus is a good thing, whether Jonathan Papelbon killed the fantasy value of a Phillies’ relief prospect and how owners are going to wind up hating Chien-Ming Wang.

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‘Tis the season of wheeling, dealing and spieling.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

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You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

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Coincidentally, last Thursday, the exact same day that Major League Baseball approved the sale of the Houston Astros franchise, Baseball America released its Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects list. Of course, we know now that one of the conditions of the purchase by a group headed by Houston businessman Jim Crane is that the organization will be moving from the NL Central to the AL West for the 2013 season.

From a fantasy perspective, there are plenty of topics to consider. But since this is Prospect Chatter, we’re going to cover, well, the prospect aspect. Over two separate posts — one today, one later in the week — we’ll hit on all you need to know.

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In 2006, the major league baseball collective bargaining agreement scrapped Type C free agents, modified what it meant to be a Type A free agent and then gave us Type B free agents, affording the former employer a “sandwich” pick (thus, it no doubt should be referred to as the Eno Sarris pick) between the first and second rounds. This rule was first put into effect in 2007. A moderate amount of chaos ensued.

As the collective bargaining agreement is being currently re-worked, there have been rumors that Type-B free agents will be done away with, that Type-B compensation picks will be done away with, or both (we’ve recently learned that there will be Type-B free agents for this off-season). What’s at stake is fairly obvious, but it did get me wondering about the sandwich picks since 2008 and what has become of them. There are some pretty interesting names in here. While their teams wouldn’t be categorically annihilated, the absence of some of these players would certainly put a dent their respective farm systems, and in a couple cases their major league rosters.

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On Monday, Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson and Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Both Hell Boy and Kimbrel (this fellow needs a menacing, pee-your-pants-upon-hearing-it nickname) seemingly have very bright futures ahead of them. But winning ROTY doesn’t always mean that a player is destined for long-term stardom (Jason Jennings and Angel Berroa say hi!)

Today, I want to hear you opinions on a different question: which rookie pitcher (minimum 50 IP in 2011) has the most long-term value? In other words, if you could only have one rookie hurler, which would you choose? Below I’ve listed 15 rookie pitchers who are likely to garner consideration, as well as a quick case for and case against choosing each rookie.

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Few things excite fans more than mega pitching prospects. Sizzling fastball velocity, sinister breaking pitches, off-speed stuff that makes grown men look like dizzy, blindfolded kids slashing at a pinata. Every spring, there’s a short list of elite starting pitching prospects on the cusp of the major leagues who are considered must-haves. It’s hard not to get swept up in the quest to draft The Next Big Thing. Hit on one of these picks, and you’ll not only climb the standings, but you’ll also look cool, trendy and sage. Prophetic, even. I knew he’d be a star right away, you brag to your friends as your young ace crushes their dreams of victory and empties their pockets.

That’s if putting down a high pick on that top starting prospect works out, however. And, as anyone who once saw stardom for the likes of Nick Neugebauer, Carlos Hernandez or Adam Loewen can tell you, young arms are anything but predictable. For every Stephen Strasburg, there are dozens of Jesse Fopperts and John Van Benschotens.

To add some clarity to the top pitching prospect conundrum, I sought to answer the following question: Just how good are these young guns during their first extended run in the major leagues? Do they tend to dominate from Day One, or are they merely average? Answering that question goes a long way toward determining when to pop that elite pitching prospect.

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