This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Twins have one of the best minor league systems in baseball and the majority of the upper-level talent should reach The Show in 2015 — significantly improving the big league product. Impressively, Minnesota has high ceiling talent both in the field and on the mound.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B: Minnesota will heavily rely on sophomore hitter Kennys Vargas to provide pop in 2015 so the lineup could certainly use some additional thump. After a little additional seasoning, Sano could be that man. In fact, he’d probably already be in the Majors if not for the Tommy John surgery he underwent last year. Incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe has been competent at the hot corner for the past few seasons but he’s really only been above replacement level for one season out of the past four. Once Sano reaches the Majors, he has the skill to hit 30+ home runs and to be a true offensive threat for the Twins.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Royals were a surprise team in 2014 but they have the talent coming up through the pipeline to help them sustain that success and avoid becoming “one-year wonders.” The young pitching depth is especially impressive.

1. Brandon Finnegan, LHP: This young lefty went from college student to first round draft pick to MLB playoff pitcher in the span of a few months. Despite his success in 2014, Finnegan is earmarked for the minors to open the 2015 season after the additions of the likes of Kris Medlen and Edinson Volquez. It’s possible that the southpaw will earn a big league bullpen role but he has the potential to develop into a mid-rotation starter. Keeping him stretched out in the minors would allow him to serve as the first man up in the event of an injury to the Top 5.

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I have never thought much about, or given much attention to, FanGraphs’ fan projections. It’s primarily a matter of stubbornness: I run my own projections, and I develop my own strategy, so why should I listen to you? At least there’s a trace of rationale behind it: I know how I created my projections (whether or not they’re any good is a topic for another day), but I have no idea how you created yours. Thus, I am more likely to blindly trust a computer-generated projection system such as Steamer instead of random fan projections.

Still, there is a sort of bizarre, secondhand wisdom to fan projections. For every person who is high on a particular player, there could be another person who is equally-and-oppositely down on him. Solicit and aggregate enough fan projections and you could produce a very reasonable prediction of a player’s performance by sheer chance.

Which is why fan projections intrigue me. If, for example, Steamer predicts the most likely outcome from a wide range of possible outcomes for a player, then the fans convey the anticipated outcome for a player. The difference between them, you could say, is what amounts to a market inefficiency (aka a price distortion). The larger the difference, the greater the inefficiency. We see these inefficiencies arise every year — 2014’s most prevalent example is probably Corey Kluber — and they typically manifest because of a lack of information about certain players.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Tigers don’t feature many high-ceiling prospects on the cusp of big league action but they have some young players that could provide some decent short-term production.

1. Buck Farmer, RHP: Farmer made four MLB appearances in 2014, which is pretty impressive considering he opened the year in Low-A ball. The 2013 fifth round pick isn’t flashy but he has the strong frame needed to develop into a back-end, innings-eating hurler. After spending time at four different levels in 2014, he should open the year in Triple-A. Two new rotation candidates, Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon, come with some question marks so it may not be too long into the season before Farmer gets another shot.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The bad news is that the Indians don’t have many intriguing prospect arms. The good news is that the organization boasts some solid offensive prospects and could receive respectable emergency coverage at any position on the field.

1. Francisco Lindor, SS: Jose Ramirez, now a sophomore, laid claim to the shortstop gig in 2014 and enters the year as the favorite to play every day at the position in ’15. However, he has yet to prove himself at the big league level at the plate and in the field so Lindor, the organization’s top prospect, could easily slide into the gig with a strong start to the year. The 21-year-old Puerto Rican infielder split the 2014 season between Double-A and Triple-A and should develop into a plus defender in the Majors. He doesn’t have much power but he hits for a decent average, occasionally hits the ball out of the park and can steal 20+ bases.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The White Sox loaded up on talent from the 2014-15 free agent market and will field a veteran-heavy club in 2015. However, the organization also boasts some intriguing upper-level prospect talent that could help bolster the 25-man roster in the coming year.

1. Carlos Sanchez, 2B: This freshman second baseman has a chance to enter 2015 as the only rookie on a club looking to make it deep into the playoffs after investing heavily on the free agent market. He’ll have to contend with a couple of off-season signings in Emilio Bonifacio and (retread) Gord Beckham but neither of the veteran players is overly well suited to regular action. Sanchez, 22, doesn’t have loud tools but he’s a smart player and he drove the ball better in 2014 at the Triple-A level. He’s historically shown an ability to hit for average and could steal 15-20 bags in a full season.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Jays have two or three players that could be significant contributors to the club in 2015 but the list drops off dramatically from there and features mostly role players. The majority of the high-ceiling depth in the system — outside the Top 3 — resides in the lower levels.

1. Daniel Norris, LHP: The Jays re-made the offence during the offseason but the pitching remains largely the same, which really can’t be viewed as anything but a negative at this point. The lack of movement is good for young hurlers like Norris and Aaron Sanchez, though. The rookie southpaw currently projects as the fifth starter in the rotation even though management is publicly stating that they think he needs more seasoning. The truth is that they’re probably hoping Norris runs away with the job in the spring. He has a chance to be a No. 2 or 3 starter in the Majors but he still struggles with consistency and his command.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Rays have some interesting names ready to challenge for permanent big league gigs, but their ceilings are fairly modest and there may not be a star player in the bunch.

Steven Souza, OF: As the key return in the WIl Myers trade this past off-season, the Rays clearly value Souza as a potential impact player. However, the outfield prospect will turn 26 in April and has eight years of minor league experience under his belt as a late-bloomer. With that said, he’s shown the ability to hit for average, power and steal bases so it’s easy to understand the interest in his potential. He could have some 20-20 (HR-SB) seasons in his prime, but those years are just about upon him.

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Last year for my FG+ article I created a methodology to find unheralded prospects similar to Ben Zobrist and Matt Carpenter by looking at recent minor league walk, strikeout and extra base hit numbers. I named my metric ZOBRIST and it performed better than I expected. I identified 10 players to watch for during the 2014 season and few had good MLB seasons like Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Scott Van Slyke. I have decided to look again for similar players in 2015 with a few changes to the evaluations.

One issue I noticed when I went back and looked at the data was how one of the three traits (power, walks and strikeouts) could hurt the hitters chances for success. A hitter could have no strikeouts, a ton of walks and zero power so they could rate high with my metric. The problem is that the complete lack of power would get exposed in the majors. I needed to set a minimum level for each of the three stats. I use Chris St. John’s minor league walk and strikeout values and a replace level power numbers to set a minimum baseline each hitter must reach.

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