Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two young lower-level arms that could develop into impact arms for their respective clubs… and a little-known slugging first base prospect on a collision course with Colorado.

Thomas Szapucki | LHP | Mets
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

The Mets have developed some impressive young arms in recent years and Szapucki is another interesting pitching prospect on the way. But Mets fans will have to be patient. The 20-year-old lefty has spent the entire year in short-season ball and likely won’t enter full-season ball until 2017. There are some red flags with his delivery, which leads to inconsistent control and command, but Szapucki can hit the mid-90s with his heater and shows a curveball with plus potential. He’s struck out 86 batters in 52 innings and has held hitters to a .145 batting average. Personally, I see the young lefty developing into a dominating reliever like Andrew Miller but the Mets will no doubt keep him in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future and hope his change-up comes along and that he can smooth out the delivery.

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Quick Looks: Julio Urias

Last Saturday, I was watching the Cards-Cubs game until Alex Reyes was done pitching. I moved over to the Dodgers hoping to see what Brett Anderson looked like. I missed his one inning start. After a brief appearance of Josh Fields, the Dodgers brought in Julio Urias and I got some bonus prospect coverage.

I was not impressed at all with his current production level. He seems to be a thrower in the Tim Lincecum mold and doesn’t really know where the ball is going at times. This wildness can be seen in his 4.1 BB/9.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we review two underrated prospects and an outfielder that has all but sewn up a starting gig for 2017 (which might begin as soon as this September).

Manny Margot | OF | Padres
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Rising

One of the top prospect targets during the Padres’ great dismantling in the winter of 2015-16, Margot has had a consistent first year with his new organization. The former Red Sox outfield prospect received an aggressive assignment to triple-A in 2016 despite having played just 64 games at double-A in ’15 (with a modest .745 OPS). He’s struck out just 44 times in 104 games this season and has shown his good speed by swiping 25 bases (in 36 tries). He has yet to tap into his raw power on a consistent basis but he’s flashed solid gap pop. The Padres’ outfield is a wasteland of no-name outfielders but look for that to change with the promotion of this 21 year old (and eventually Hunter Renfroe). Look for Margot to earn a September call-up and assume a starting position at the beginning of 2017.

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Quick Looks: Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver, and Alex Reyes

Saturday’s Cardinals-Cubs game made for some good pitcher watching with three young pitchers taking the mound. Let me start with Hendricks.

A couple of years back, I did a Quick Look at Hendricks and here were my thoughts:

I just have not seen enough of him to convince me he can keep up the results. I would not be surprised one bit if his ERA from now to season’s end was near 4.00 (which is where his ERA estimators are hanging out).

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a rising pitcher from the National League and a couple of shortstops on different ends of the development spectrum.

Mitch Keller | RHP | Pirates
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Keller, 20, reminds me a little bit of Jameson Taillon — as a pitcher with some giddy-up on his fastball that has above-average control at an early stage of the development curve. The 2014 second-round pick is still working to polish his command but he could eventually possess three average or better offerings, including a fastball that currently touches the mid-90s. He’s not flashy but Keller has 112 strikeouts in 107.1 innings and does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park. He also has a strong frame that suggests he could develop into an innings-eater in the middle of the Pirates rotation. The club has some depth in the big league rotation so Keller can move at his own pace and won’t be rushed in this system.

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Cardinals Pitcher Call-Ups: Reyes and Weaver

The Cardinals called up Alex Reyes and he made his first major league appearance for the Cardinals bullpen last light. Reyes is a talent pitcher and here is some comparable pitchers with similar grades to his 2016 Baseball America prospect grade.

The list is dominated by hard throwers with good curve balls which describes Reyes.

Moving onto his Triple-A production this year, the 21-year-old has been a strikeout machine with 12.8 K/9, but he has some issues with walks (4.4 BB/9). Last night he averaged 99 mph with his fastball and was 98 mph in the Arizona Fall League last year. Besides the fastball, he has an above average curve ball. He is a talented pitcher and should be a top 20 pitcher for years to come if his change up is serviceable.

But to put it simply, all the talent doesn’t really matter this season. Reyes will not be useful in most leagues since he will be relegated to the bullpen and is currently not in line for Saves. In redraft leagues, let others fight over him. In keeper leagues, understand his value is limited this season. Now, if I was a non-contender in a keeper league, I would look to see if one of the contenders has Reyes and would try to pick him up for a piece which could help them win a championship.

Luke Weaver is the pitcher owners should be targeting this season instead of Reyes. To start with, here are some comparables for Weaver using MLB.com’s 2016 grades.

The list of pitchers doesn’t bring a ton of excitement to Weaver’s debut on Saturday. The key when looking at these grades is if he can get his curve or slider to be his third league-average pitch. Weaver has been extremely productive in Double-A posting a 1.40 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but a pitcher can dominate the minors with just two pitches. If viewing his start on Saturday, watch to see how his curve and slider work. If he can’t get them going, he may struggle the second or third time through the order.

As for fantasy, I think he is worth a stash in all leagues to see how he performs. I think he could be in the Cardinals’ rotation until the season end because he has only thrown 83 innings this year after throwing 124 IP last year so workload may not be an issue.

Dylan Bundy: Quick Look

I have been intrigued on how Dylan Bundy looks since moving to the Orioles rotation in mid-July. With his injuries and starting the season in the bullpen, I wanted to get an idea of what to expect from him as a starter. For the game, I picked his last start on August 7. Here are my thoughts:

• His fastball was at 92-97 mph with sink at the lower velocities. He had good command of this pitch and seemed to constantly hit is spots with it. This will help him get ahead of hitters who are looking for a pitch in the middle of the plate. His fastball seems to have a couple different movements and I would not be surprised if he has a four-seam fastball and a slower two-seamer.
• His split-change was at 85-87 mph also with plus late sink. This pitch was the best pitch he threw.
• His final pitch is a classic 12-6 curve at 77-80 mph which he used as a chase pitch for called strikes.
• As with any pitcher, when he hung the curve or change, they got crushed.
• If he throws like he did during this game next year, he is going to be a strikeout machine.

For next season, I like the possible production from him and he could be a top-20 to 40 pitcher …. if he stays healthy which is a huge if. I think he will be more valuable in shallow leagues where the replacement level is higher. In deeper leagues, he may end up a wasted pick if he goes back on the DL again for the season. Right now I would put a 140 IP, 9 K/9, and a 3.50 ERA on him for a 2017 projection.

T.J. House: Back in the majors

Going into last season, I had a huge crush on T.J. House after he put up some great numbers at the end of 2014. I bragged him up over the offseason and picked him up where ever I could. Right out of the gate of the 2015 season, House stunk it up and ended up the DL with an injury.

The biggest key I took away from my House love affair, for non-prospect who break out, any kink in their armor will probably make them unplayable. In House’s case, his velocity lost 2 mph from the previous season. There was no way he could keep up his 2014 production with a batting-practice fastball.

His return to the majors is only to the Indians bullpen and his fastball, which he should throw harder from the bullpen, only sits at 90 mph. He is unplayable in all leagues right now, but I will always remember the bond we shared that one offseason.

Introduction

I plan for this new series, Mixing Fantasy and Reality, to examine in detail how real happenings in baseball affect fantasy valuations. I had several projects I have worked on like xBABIP values and velocity differences in which I plan on including. The MASH Report took up quite a bit of my time compiling and tracking all the injuries and I didn’t have time for other outlets. Today marks a new beginning where I have an opportunity to make additional information available. This series will run on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday

I am not going to completely ignore injuries. If a major injury happens or I think one will happen, I will include the information. Additionally, every Thursday I will write a detailed article exclusively on a few in-depth injury topics like my HURT and PAIN reports.

As for future articles, the format will likely be two to four main areas of discussion and maybe some interesting tidbit not found elsewhere. I am not sure if I will have a set topic rotation or if I will just follow the news. For a few articles, I will need to set some ground work to reference in future articles, so don’t expect all the articles to be full of background information like the first few. I hope you enjoy the change and let me know if you have any suggestions.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two pitchers with very different approaches (and profiles) on the mound and a former top prospect that fell from grace only to suddenly become relevant again.

Jack Flaherty | RHP | Cardinals
ETA: 2018
Value: Steady

The Cardinals organization tends to make noise with hard-throwing pitchers like Alex Reyes, Junior Fernandez and Sandy Alcantara so Flaherty often gets overlooked. The right-hander, though, has a chance to have four average or better offerings and, perhaps, three plus offerings when all is said and done. Right now, the 34th overall pick of the 2014 draft has average velocity on his heater but his 6-4, 2015 pound frame suggests there could be more miles to come. His changeup already flashes plus and the slider is on its way. His control is respectable but I’d like to see him command the ball down in the zone more to generate a higher rate of ground-ball outs. Flaherty, 20, has a solid chance to develop into a No. 4 starter but further improvements on his pitches could push him even higher.

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Let’s talk hard-throwing pitchers today at the Prospect Stock Watch since they’re all the rage in baseball right now.

Michael Kopech | RHP | Red Sox
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Selected 33rd overall in the 2014 draft out of high school, Kopech’s early pro career was marked with makeup concerns, a suspension for a banned substance, and injury (a broken hand suffered in a fight with a teammate). When he’s on the mound, though, the right-hander can be downright nasty. His fastball has reportedly hit 105 mph as a starter and it sits 95-98 mph. He also throws a low-90s slider and changeup but both need work to become more consistent. Kopech, 20, has been pitching well in high-A ball. In six starts he has 42 strikeouts in 28.1 innings and has yet to allow a home run. Boston has a very healthy minor league system but is a little light on upper-level impact arms so Kopech’s continued development (and improved maturity) is important.

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Earlier this season I introduced the Prospect Scorecard as a way of better comparing and identifying the best fit prospect value for your specific fantasy league.  Today I’ll get a head start on my own 2017 prospect rankings by using the Scorecard methodology to rank the current top 50 prospects for Ottoneu. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu specifically, the 4 x 4 and FGPTS prospect rankings can serve as a good proxy for most OPS or wOBA-centric fantasy leagues, and the traditional 5 x 5 prospect rankings should cover a large portion of the rest.

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