Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Trea Turner (SS): It took a little time for the Nationals’ veteran-loving manager to agree to give Turner a shot but once the freshman received the opportunity he never looked back (although it wasn’t even at his natural position of shortstop). The 13th overall selection in the 2014 draft was a real spark plug for the playoff contender by producing a .342 average with 33 steals in just 73 games. He also showed unexpected pop by hitting 13 homers in the Majors and six in the minors (after never hitting more than five in a season). Turner should be a top-of-the-order threat and mainstay in center field for the foreseeable future in Washington.

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A couple of weeks ago I made an initial stab at projecting a pitching prospect’s MLB value knowing their prospect grades. I failed miserably, but got some ideas in which to move forward on. Today, I will test some of those theories and see if I can tease out any information.

From the previous study, I found the following on pitcher grades.

1. Pitchers who are a few years from the majors are likely to change quite a bit before for they reach the majors. They could have arm surgery, find command, or add a pitch. Early grades have too much noise to be used for future results.

2. Fastballs are almost exclusively graded only on velocity. For a soft-tossing prospect to get a major call up, their fastball is likely better than just the velocity shows. They likely have plus movement and/or command of the pitch.

3. Almost all pitching prospects will get stuck with a future 50 control grade because getting graded less than 50 is a death sentence for their progress. Not all major league pitchers have average control. Exactly half don’t, so the control grade needs to be adjusted.

4. From some discussions with people in the game, I found that having one or two plus breaking balls can help carry a pitcher with an average fastball.

With these limitations, I decided to relook at pitchers by implementing the following guidelines for this study.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Dansby Swanson (SS): OK, so I’m going to cheat a bit. Swanson didn’t technically graduate because he was stopped at 129 at-bats (and the official amount to graduate as a rookie is 130 ABs) but I needed something positive to write about after the Braves’ rookie hurlers struggled mightily. The first overall pick of the 2015 draft didn’t need much minor league seasoning and he blew through A-ball and double-A in 2016 on his way to his big league promotion. Despite the quick ascension, Swanson performed well on both sides of the ball and should be a star in this league (or at least an above-average regular if the pop doesn’t come around).

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Kyle Barraclough (RHP): The Marlins didn’t debut much in the way of young talent in 2016 but Barraclough came out of nowhere to earn more than 2.0 WAR as a member of Miami’s bullpen. The 26-year-old right-hander was originally a seventh round pick of the Cardinals back in 2012. He showed swing-and-miss stuff in the minors but never consistently found the plate — and much of that was true at the big league level in ’16. Barraclough still walked more than five batters per nine innings but he also whiffed 14 per — in 75 games. It will be interesting to see if the huge workload will come back to haunt the Fish in the form of DL time for the young hurler. He has high-leverage potential if he can ever find the plate on a semi-consistent basis.

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A few days ago, I made my first attempt at trying to determine a pitcher’s value knowing their pitch grades. Since it was published, I have made some adjustments to the pitch grading scale. With the new scale in place, I have been working on comparing grades a pitcher previously received to their actual performance. The results have been extremely disappointing.

In the original article, created a framework to grade individual pitches with an ERA equivalent value (pERA) and a scouting grade on each pitch. While I liked the overall framework, one part really bothered me and I will address the issue first.

The change was to put some consistency in pitch grades, especially with fastballs. The problem was that a pitcher’s fastball is getting graded because of its velocity, but that velocity changes depending on if the pitcher was a starter or reliever. Relievers can really ramp up their velocity when moving to the bullpen.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tommy Josephs (1B): It looked like Joseph’s days as a top prospect were over when injuries (concussions) forced him out from behind the plate and to first base. It just didn’t look like he would be able to produce enough power to warrant a full-time gig at an offensively-demanding position. Then he went and hit 21 home runs in 107 big league games in 2016 as a rookie. Now, his season wasn’t without flaws (such as his on-base percentage) but he’s good enough for the Phillies to finally kick incumbent first baseman Ryan Howard to the curb. Joseph, 25, has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order guy for the Phillies for at least a few years until something better comes along.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Steven Matz (LHP): The good news is that Matz had a solid freshman year in the Majors. The bad news is that he suffered through a litany of ailments and ultimately went under the knife for a bone spur in his throwing elbow. All signs point to him being healthy at the beginning of his sophomore year but some caution has to be had after a shoulder issue also caused him issues in 2016. The young lefty shows good command and control of a four-pitch mix — including an above-average heater — so he has the potential to develop into a No. 2/3 starter if he can avoid the trainer’s table.

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When I started this series which attempts to determine the projected fantasy value for prospects, I knew today’s step would be the hardest. The issue was converting various pitch grades (and control) into a workable framework for a pitcher’s overall production value. I thought I may not end up with a workable answer, but the following results have promise beyond just grading pitches.

I was able to piece together work from various articles and gave each pitch a grade based on the ERA scale. Combining per-pitch-ERA’s with a control value, it looks like we can estimate a pitcher’s overall value.

A pitching prospect is usually given a value on each of their pitches and a command and/or control grade. For example, the MLB.com’s grades for their top rated pitcher, Lucas Giolito, are:

Pitch: Grade
Fastball: 80
Curveball: 70
Changeup: 55
Control: 55

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Chris Devenski (RHP): The Astors saw a wave of high-ceiling, young talent reach the Majors in 2016 including Alex Bregman, A.J. Reed, Michael Feliz and Joe Musgrove but it was the under-appreciated Devenski that arguably had the biggest impact on the big league club with a whopping 2.8 WAR accumulated from (mostly) the bullpen. Devenski, 25, isn’t overpowering but he has strong command/control which makes his average heater play up. And it sets up his plus-plus changeup well. The Astros will no doubt be tempted to try the right-hander in a starting role in 2017 but he appears well suited for the pen and had a 1.61 ERA as a reliever versus 4.01 as a starter (five starts). He also did his best work out of the pen soaking up innings in low leverage situations.

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The fantasy baseball season has closed, but the game of Ottoneu continues long into the off-season (one of the hallmarks of its year-round appeal).  Following Justin’s take on what happened with some of the best teams in Ottoneu this year, I’ll focus today on how one team mastered this game, presenting you with an interview from the of the 2016 Ottoneu Champions League winner, Brent Daily.

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