The Diamondbacks have a solid system with some interesting players within the top 10-15 prospects in the system. But overall, the organization lacks depth.

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1. Jon Duplantier | RHP | AA —> There is no denying Duplantier’s potential but the checkered medical sheet is worrisome, and the big right-hander (who attended Rice University, which has a reputation for misusing pitchers) has missed a significant chunk of 2018 due to injury. When he’s right, Duplantier shows three above-average offerings, has a great pitcher’s frame and induces a ton of ground-ball outs. There is No. 2/3 starter potential here if he can stay on the field long enough to polish his skills.

2. Daulton Varsho | C | A+ —> I’ve been a huge fan of Daulton since the D-Backs nabbed him with the 68th overall selection in the 2017 draft. He doesn’t have the strongest arm for a catcher but he makes it work and should be able to stick behind the plate (He’s caught 34% of base stealers so far this year). At the plate, Varsho shows the ability to hit for both average and power — and displays his athleticism on the base paths with above-average base running (15 for 18 in steals). He could be ready for The Show in late 2019 or early 2020.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

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This continues to be a stacked system with both high upside prospects and lots of depth. The organization is building from the ground up and seem to have a strong plan in place.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

*Amendment: This post was written and submitted prior to the Francisco Mejia deal (and I was on vacation). He would have fallen fifth on the list behind Luis Urias. Mejia could easily be a No. 1 prospect in some organizations but not San Diego, which is stacked with talent. The downside to this prospect is that he may not be a catcher in the long run and, while he doesn’t strike out a ton, he’s too aggressive at times and doesn’t always give himself the best pitch to hit or the best count to hit from. If he can make adjustments there, he will hit for average in the Majors and has 15-20 home run potential.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. | SS | AA —> Much like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with Toronto, Tatis Jr. is a legacy prospect who is very advanced for his age. While the former possesses a plus-plus hit tool with modest future projections on his body and defence, the latter is known more for his plus power with an athletic frame and strong defensive potential. I like Tatis Jr. a little better long term but the swing-and-miss tendencies are a little worrisome but further maturation could temper that to a more reasonable level. There is all-star upside here.

2. MacKenzie Gore | LHP | A —> If he were pitching in the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox system, Gore would probably be a better known name as one of the Top 5 arms in the game. He’s a lefty with the potential for four above-average offerings and he has great size. Command and control both have the potential to be plus. He also receives strong marks for makeup. There is No. 1 starter potential here if he can stay healthy — and the organization has so far been handling him with kids’ gloves.

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The Giants minor league system entered the year as one of the weakest due to the absence of impact talent and an overall lack of depth. And things have only gotten worse with quite a few disappointing performances. The one real bright spot was acquiring a strong talent in the draft with the club’s first round selection.

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1. Joey Bart | C | SS —> Bart has transitioned OK to pro ball. After spending a little time in rookie ball, he moved up to the more age-appropriate short-season Northwest League where six of his 11 hits have gone for over the fence for a home run. On the down side, his BB-K or 2-17 in pro ball leaves something to be desired. He’ll need to tighten up his approach as he moves up the organizational ladder.

2. Heliot Ramos | OF | A —> Ramos had an outstanding debut as a 17 year old in 2017 but he’s struggled in low-A ball due to an inconsistent approach at the plate. Even his bat speed has looked slower at times. The good news is that he’s still just 18 so he has lots of time to develop further. He was a hot commodity as a trade target in the off-season but the Giants considered him all but untouchable.

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The Dodgers are said to be big players for Baltimore’s Manny Machado but this system isn’t as deep as it used to be due to promotions, trades, etc. A couple of so-so drafts in a row have not helped, either.

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1. Alex Verdugo | OF | AAA —> With most organizations, Verdugo would be a starting outfielder — and would have been since the beginning of the year. With the Dodgers, though, he’s a handy player to have at triple-A to fill in for injuries. He’s an extremely advanced hitter for his age, as witnessed by his .352 average, and he rarely gives away an at-bat. The biggest knock on him is the modest power output (which is more a result of his all-fields approach than a lack of strength).

2. Keibert Ruiz | C | AA —> I’ve been leading the bandwagon on Ruiz for a couple of years now but, as he finally starts to get the attention he deserves, he’s having a down year with the bat. Now to be fair, he’s 19 and playing in double-A. Even with being a little overmatched he’s only struck out 20 times in 251 at-bats. Like Verdugo above, this switch-hitter has an uncanny knack for making contact, which can sometimes work against him if he doesn’t wait for a good pitch to hit (as he’s learning right now). Defensively, he needs some polish but should be able to stick behind the plate.

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When I wrote the system up in the winter, it felt like it was starting to thin out after last year’s trades and recent MLB promotions. That’s not the case, though. The Astros have some of the best pitching depth in baseball, with a few potential everyday hitters sprinkled in.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Kyle Tucker | RF | AAA —> The Astros have recently promoted this 21-year-old outfielder after he produced excellent triple-A numbers. With Marwin Gonzalez under-producing in his walk year, this move will give the Astros a spark while also auditioning Tucker for a full-time gig in 2019. There will be some growing pains in ’18 if he sticks around but he has 20-20 (HR-SB) upside.

2. Forrest Whitley | RHP | AA —> Between a suspension and injuries, 2018 has mostly been a lost year for the Astros’ top pitching prospect. When he’s pitched, though, he’s continued to look like a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar hitting prospects. There seemed to be some confusion on the point of the rankings which is to find under promote good prospects. Today, I will try to clear up the and dive into a few hitters not represented on top-100 prospect lists.

The last time I ran this report, there was some questions on why some hitters were missing. After investing, I found out it’s was a database issue which missed some newly signed players, changed the position labeling, and mislabeled when players lost their rookie eligibility. I’ve made sure everyone is included but added a few adjustments.

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The Mariners system is pretty thin on potential impact players but, nonetheless, have some interesting names littered throughout the system. I’m a big fan of the team’s 2018 first round pick.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Evan White | 1B | A+ —> White entered pro ball — after being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft — with the reputation for being a good hitter with a modest power output for a first baseman. That continues to be the case for the young hitter, even while spending most of the year in the California League, which tends to boost offensive numbers. He has the athleticism to play the outfield but the Mariners have kept him firmly entrenched at first base; White hasn’t played even one inning at another position in pro ball. Right now, he looks like a future average big league hitter with above-average defence.

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Amateur player identification and development has long been a strength of the Rangers organization but trades and promotions have thinned out the system badly. And an inexplicable onslaught of injuries has made matters much worse.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Willie Calhoun | DH/LF | AAA —> The book on Calhoun remains the same: He could be an everyday hitter in the big leagues right now but he can’t play defence. He should be up this summer if Texas can find a place to play him — perhaps after the trade deadline.

2. Leody Taveras | CF | A+ —> Just 19, Taveras is already in high-A ball, although I’m not really a fan of how quickly the Rangers have been moving him. He has yet to dominate at any minor league level. The raw tools are there, though, and he should be a plus center-fielder with above-average speed and at least line-drive pop. He could grow into 15-20 homer pop.

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It’s time for my latest computer based pitching prospects. In my last article, there was some confusion on how the rankings are to be used. Here’s a breakdown of what the rankings are and aren’t.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, role, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

Read the rest of this entry »