Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Hall, LHP: Hall isn’t your typical sleeper. He’s not toolsy, especially athletic and he doesn’t eye-popping raw stuff. He’s a small-ish lefty start with a fastball that just squeaks into the 90s at times but he still does a number of things well. His curveball is a plus offering and the heater is good enough to keep hitters honest. He also generates a lot of ground balls despite just 6-feet tall. Some deception in his delivery helped him strike out 149 batters in 138.1 innings. Although he could chew up innings as a starter, Hall could really break out for the Tigers if he gets moved to the pen.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Christin Stewart, OF: I’ve been pretty critical of Stewart as a prospect over the past few years but I have give credit where credit is due. He became a better all-around hitter in 2018 while trimming his strikeout rate and not losing any of his power in the process. He looks like a pretty decent bet for 20+ homers and a more-than-healthy on-base rate. With that said, he still carries negative value into the field, and on the base paths.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you perused the series last year, this is what you would have read:

The Stud: Mitch Keller, RHP: Easily the Pirates’ best pitching prospect, Keller has above-average control, a mid-90s fastball and the makings of developing into an innings-eater. In his prime, he should offer three better-than-average offerings, which will play up even more with his ability to consistently throw strikes. Keller, 21, also induces an above-average number of ground ball outs and allowed just seven home runs in 116 innings in 2017. The right-handed hurler just needs more experience and injuries have cost him valuable innings. After throwing 34.2 innings at the double-A level last year, he’ll return to that level but should see triple-A in the second half. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Nick Kingham, RHP: Kingham missed some valuable development time in 2015-16 due to injuries so he made his MLB debut at the age of 26. And he gave us a valuable lesson on the value of fastball command. The right-handed pitching prospect struggled in that area and ended up giving up 18 homers in just 76 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Now it’s not all doom-and-gloom for Kingham. He missed some bats and generally showed OK control (highlighting the difference between command and control)… while also looking like a potential innings-eater as a No. 4 starter — if he can solve the homer issues.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you perused the series last year, this is what you read:

The Sleeper: Austin Gomber, LHP: Gomber isn’t flashy but he has a chance to be a very good arm for the Cardinals. A 2014 fourth rounder, this southpaw works in the low 90s but he commands it exceptionally well. Gomber, 23, has a chance to have three above-average offerings — including a plus breaking ball. He has a large frame and a good chance to develop into a No. 4 starter capable of hitting 200+ innings pitched. He’ll likely open 2018 in triple-A but could be one of the first arms called up to provide valuable innings.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Tyler O’Neill, OF: After parts of three years at the triple-A level, O’Neill finally made his big league debut but he took a step back in his development while doing so. With plus raw power, the young slugger nonetheless felt the need to sell out further to hit home runs. His strikeout rate rocketed to 40%. If he gets back to doing what he does well, O’Neill should be a very good player for the Cardinals with the ability to hit lots of homers and with a strong on-base presence — if he can find playing time. There is no need to send him back to the minors but he is blocked by Dexter Fowler and Marcell Ozuna.

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The central premise of this article – that I am a bellwether on elite prospects – is rather egotistical. You’ve been warned.

Over the years, one of my most consistent pieces of advice can be boiled down to the following:”y’all crazy about prospects.” I stand by it. You – as in people who aren’t me – need to calm the *&^% down about your prospects.

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The Yankees system has some very promising prospects and lots of depth but no “can’t miss, impact talent”… at least not yet. There are definitely some candidates to earn that tag by the end of 2019.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Jonathan Loaisiga | RHP | AAA —> Back in January, I picked Loaisiga as the biggest sleeper in the Yankees system. He made me look good by rising from obscurity, zooming through the minors and even reaching the big leagues. He has the chance to develop three plus offerings but the knock on him is his lack of physicality. And sure enough, he was hurt in 2018 not long after making his MLB debut. If he can hold up as a starter, Loaisiga has No. 2 starter potential. If not, he might end up as a high-leverage reliever.

2. Justus Sheffield | LHP | AAA —> Sheffield is another smallish pitcher but he’s stronger and more athletic than the pitcher above him. He also has a solid fastball-slider combination but the changeup needs a fair bit of polish to become an average offering. Sheffield also struggles with his control at times and I’ve heard that he could stand to be more mature. He gets a solid number of ground-ball outs to go with a health number of strikeouts. I see No. 3/4 starter potential here and he should be ready to pitch out of the Yankees starting rotation in 2019.

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The Jays have a solid system and a great collection of hitters but I am worried about the general lack of development/advancement of a lot of the arms outside the Top 10 list.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | AAA —> You’ve probably already read a lot about Guerrero Jr… so I’ll keep this fairly short. He has the chance to hit for average, power, get on base at a crazy-high rate and be one of the top hitters in all of baseball. He has limited defensive value but his instincts allow him to play third base for now. I do worry about his conditioning as he matures and, if he doesn’t make some changes now, may start to decline in his early 30s.

2. Bo Bichette | SS | AA —> Bichette receives his fair share of attention but perhaps not as much as he would if he were not sharing the limelight with Guerrero Jr. The young shortstop has swiftly risen through the system and reached double-A in 2018 at the age of 20 — a significant accomplishment. He also more than held his own in a league with an average age around 24. His quick bat generates plenty of raw power but he has yet to become a prolific home run hitter; instead, he slugged 43 doubles (with seven triples and 11 homers) in 131 games. Bichette is an aggressive hitter so there will likely be adjustment periods at both the triple-A and MLB levels as more experienced pitchers exploit those tendencies. He has 20-20 potential.

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The AL East is currently ruled by the Red Sox and, to some degree, the Yankees. The Rays have the talent to challenge both of them within the next three to five years… but will the organization ever step up and keep the players together long enough to win it all?

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Wander Franco | SS | SS —> Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays has seen a meteoric rise through pro ball and is on the cusp of reaching the Majors despite still being a teenager. Franco, another son of a former big leaguer, is just 17 but has also produced video-game-like numbers despite limited experience in pro ball. He showed an outstanding approach at the plate with a BB-K of 27-19 in 61 advanced rookie ball games. Franco also gets to more in-game power than most players his age. The sky is the limit for this young player but I also want to be a little cautious until I see him in full-season ball.

2. Brent Honeywell | RHP | INJ —> Honeywell appeared on a collision course with the big leagues in 2018 but Tommy John surgery derailed that hope. Now, he’ll hope to reach the Majors towards the end of 2019. The 23-year-old hurler has No. 2/3 starter potential with his potential above-average four-pitch mix, which includes a rare (plus) screwball. There are now some durability concerns with Honeywell, who is not a huge guy, but he’s also very athletic and a smart pitcher so those traits should help him as he moves forward.

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The Boston Red Sox were a powerhouse team in 2018 at the Major League level but the minor league system is anything but… The system lacks both depth and impact players. With that said, there are definitely some players that project to contribute at the big league level and might even be able to handle every-day roles if the raw, toolsy players realize their full potentials.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Michael Chavis | 3B | AAA —> Injuries kept Chavis from following up on his breakout 2017 campaign and, in some regards, he took some steps back while battling through a difficult year. He continued to show impressive in-game power and stung the ball with line-drives all over the place. However, the strikeout rate increased after he made some strides in that area last year. He produced a good batting average but the BABIP he produced is likely unsustainable in the long run. Defensively, he’s blocked at third base and it may not be his best position anyway and he may end up on the right side of the diamond.

2. Tanner Houck | RHP | A+ —> Houck is a divisive prospect… some see frontline starter, others see high-leverage reliever. The talent, as well as a strong pitcher’s frame, is there but command issues keep him from missing as many bats as he should. He also has a strong one-two punch with his fastball and slider but the curveball is inconsistent and the changeup is still very much a work-in-progress. Without a strong change-of-pace, he might shift to the ‘pen but I’m on the side that sees improvements coming a future in the starting rotation — even if it’s more of a mid-rotation, innings-eater.

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I really wanted an excuse to use that headline. This post isn’t directly about Victor Mesa Jr. and Victor Victor Mesa, although I will be referencing their scouting reports. Also, there’s a fun pun-ish connection between the headline and my conclusion. Layers!

I’ve already botched this intro. Let’s pretend I wrote a normal paragraph laying out today’s topic is a cogent manner. Oh! The topic is “y’all too &@%*ing crazy about prospects.” Proceed.

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The Orioles rebuild has begun but, so far, the prospect returns have been fairly underwhelming. The system still needs a lot of work but there are at least a few interesting prospects.

1. Grayson Rodriguez | RHP | R —> Rodriguez was a huge pop-up guy in the 2018 draft and ended up being selected 11th overall. He’s a monster on the mound with the ability to hit the upper 90s but he should eventually grow into more consistent upper 90s. His slider also has the makings of a plus offering and he should be average ratings out of his curve and/or changeup. Rodriguez, 18, has the body to be an innings-eater and the stuff to be a front-line guy. On the downside, he doesn’t have the most athletic delivery and I don’t love the arm action, which could limit his overall command.

2. Ryan Mountcastle | 3B | AA —> It’s been a slow climb for Mountcastle, as a former prep pick, but showed well in double-A in 2018 and could be ready for the Majors at some point in 2019. He’s shown the ability to hit for average and has 15-20 homer potential (more if he added additional muscle to his frame) but he needs to be less aggressive at the plate. He walked just 26 times in 102 games and waiting for better pitches to hit could really help him continue to improve and let him tap into his raw power. He also struggles against the bender.

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