Earlier this week, I did a breakdown of 1B using the NFBC ADP data. I grouped them according to the draft slots and gave some thoughts on who I liked and disliked at their current costs. Since I was using the NFBC draft data, it was only listing those who are currently qualified by the standard 20-game threshold (the industry standard and also what most sites use, while Yahoo! is most lenient at just 5 games).

I was so zeroed in on the group of NFBC-eligible first basemen that I didn’t even think about a very worthwhile group of players: those certain or very likely to gain 1B eligibility early enough in the season that you can draft them with the intention of being your primary option at the position and those who fell below 20 games, but still had enough to qualify at sites using a 5- or 10-game qualifier.

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It’s prospect list season which means I’m reading a lot of words about teenagers. It’s not creepy because it’s for work. What’s your excuse?

If the various revolutions in baseball – air ball, tunneling, etc. – have taught us anything, it’s that everybody is a breakout candidate. Anyone with the potential to improve and the willingness to try something new could suddenly emerge from mediocrity into the land of stardom.

In the past, players who reached the majors were hesitant – to a superstitious degree – about changing the way they play. Now, Statcast and other analytic toolboxes have made tinkering with strength, mechanics, and approach easier than ever. Instead of blindly trying whatever a pitching or hitting coach suggested (hint, they often give the same advice to everybody), players have access to powerful, personalized data. Adjustments are built upon highly educated guesses. Not only is there less risk in trying to improve, it’s necessary to keep pace with the competition.

If any major league player can break out, the same is true of minor leaguers. However, our scouting lexicon – at least for public prospect lists – has been slow to update. What follows are three common phrases you can safely ignore when you encounter them.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The San Diego PadresIf you were perusing this series back in 2013, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Andriese, RHP Andriese has been one of my favorite sleepers for a couple years now and he continues to fly under the radar in part because he doesn’t have the electric stuff that gets scouts’ hearts palpitating. His fastball has at least average velocity but it’s the heavy sink that makes it stand out. Andriese, 24, is very close to big-league ready and he could settle in to the role of back-end, innings-eating starter.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Joey Lucchesi, LHP: What a year for Lucchesi, a former fourth round pick who needed just over one full year of baseball to reach The Show. He benefited from advanced control while incorporating basically a two-pitch attack with his fastball and changeup. Lucchesi may need to rely on a breaking ball more often in his sophomore season in the Majors now that the scouting report is out on him. He was hurt by the home run ball in 2018 and oddly gave up more homers at home. He’ll need an added weapon against right-handed hitters with almost half the hits against him going for extra bases.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Texas Rangers

If you were perusing the series back in late 2013, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Odubel Herrera, 2B: An offensive-minded infielder, Herrera impressed me with his offensive potential in 2012. Unfortunately, he found Double-A to be more of a challenge and the 21-year-old finished the year back in High-A ball after being passed on the depth chart by fellow middle infield prospects Odor and Luis Sardinas. The 2014 season will be a key one for Herrera, who needs to avoid getting completely lost in the shuffle.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Ronald Guzman, 1B: The Rangers invested quite heavily in both Nomar Mazara and Guzman during the 2011 international free agency and both made good on their potential… with Guzman taking a little longer to develop. He has a huge frame that generates significant raw power but struggles to reach that pop in game situations. He’s still polishing his eye at plate and produced a modest 33-121 BB-K rate in his big league debut.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Los Angeles Angels

First Taste of The Show: Jaime Barria, RHP: Barria was a godsend for the Angels’ rotation in 2018. He provided them with almost 130 innings of solid performance — owed almost exclusively to his slider… and a little luck. While he struggled with fastball command at times, Barria flashed above-average control at times, poise and that dangerous breaking ball. Going forward into 2019, he’ll want to try and keep more balls on the ground while spotting his fastball better and continuing to polish his changeup. He’s probably a stretch at anything more than a No. 4 starter but it’s possible he could settle into a mid-rotation innings-eater if he can make good on the above items.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Cleveland IndiansIf you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Nolan Jones, 3B: You haven’t reach much about Jones yet but that might chance in 2018 when he moves up to full-season ball for the first time. The 19-year-old third baseman produced a .430 on-base percentage in 2017 in short-season ball thanks to a 16% walk rate and .317 batting average. The average is due for some regression thanks to his .417 BABIP and 22% strikeout rate but he has the frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and the line-drive pop (22 LD%) to grow into some serious power. Jones looks like a future stud at the hot corner and he has the defensive tools to stick there.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Shane Bieber, RHP: Bieber had his ups-and-downs but he held his own during his first taste of the majors better than I thought he would. He chewed up innings and threw strikes — but got too much of the strike zone at times. With improved fastball command, Bieber could develop into a solid mid-rotation starter thanks to his strong breaking stuff and the aforementioned control. His development (along with Mike Clevinger’s) has made it easier for the club to consider parting ways with Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Hall, LHP: Hall isn’t your typical sleeper. He’s not toolsy, especially athletic and he doesn’t eye-popping raw stuff. He’s a small-ish lefty start with a fastball that just squeaks into the 90s at times but he still does a number of things well. His curveball is a plus offering and the heater is good enough to keep hitters honest. He also generates a lot of ground balls despite just 6-feet tall. Some deception in his delivery helped him strike out 149 batters in 138.1 innings. Although he could chew up innings as a starter, Hall could really break out for the Tigers if he gets moved to the pen.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Christin Stewart, OF: I’ve been pretty critical of Stewart as a prospect over the past few years but I have give credit where credit is due. He became a better all-around hitter in 2018 while trimming his strikeout rate and not losing any of his power in the process. He looks like a pretty decent bet for 20+ homers and a more-than-healthy on-base rate. With that said, he still carries negative value into the field, and on the base paths.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you perused the series last year, this is what you would have read:

The Stud: Mitch Keller, RHP: Easily the Pirates’ best pitching prospect, Keller has above-average control, a mid-90s fastball and the makings of developing into an innings-eater. In his prime, he should offer three better-than-average offerings, which will play up even more with his ability to consistently throw strikes. Keller, 21, also induces an above-average number of ground ball outs and allowed just seven home runs in 116 innings in 2017. The right-handed hurler just needs more experience and injuries have cost him valuable innings. After throwing 34.2 innings at the double-A level last year, he’ll return to that level but should see triple-A in the second half. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Nick Kingham, RHP: Kingham missed some valuable development time in 2015-16 due to injuries so he made his MLB debut at the age of 26. And he gave us a valuable lesson on the value of fastball command. The right-handed pitching prospect struggled in that area and ended up giving up 18 homers in just 76 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Now it’s not all doom-and-gloom for Kingham. He missed some bats and generally showed OK control (highlighting the difference between command and control)… while also looking like a potential innings-eater as a No. 4 starter — if he can solve the homer issues.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you perused the series last year, this is what you read:

The Sleeper: Austin Gomber, LHP: Gomber isn’t flashy but he has a chance to be a very good arm for the Cardinals. A 2014 fourth rounder, this southpaw works in the low 90s but he commands it exceptionally well. Gomber, 23, has a chance to have three above-average offerings — including a plus breaking ball. He has a large frame and a good chance to develop into a No. 4 starter capable of hitting 200+ innings pitched. He’ll likely open 2018 in triple-A but could be one of the first arms called up to provide valuable innings.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Tyler O’Neill, OF: After parts of three years at the triple-A level, O’Neill finally made his big league debut but he took a step back in his development while doing so. With plus raw power, the young slugger nonetheless felt the need to sell out further to hit home runs. His strikeout rate rocketed to 40%. If he gets back to doing what he does well, O’Neill should be a very good player for the Cardinals with the ability to hit lots of homers and with a strong on-base presence — if he can find playing time. There is no need to send him back to the minors but he is blocked by Dexter Fowler and Marcell Ozuna.

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The central premise of this article – that I am a bellwether on elite prospects – is rather egotistical. You’ve been warned.

Over the years, one of my most consistent pieces of advice can be boiled down to the following:”y’all crazy about prospects.” I stand by it. You – as in people who aren’t me – need to calm the *&^% down about your prospects.

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