Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2015:

The Riser: Willson Contreras, C: Our very own Carson Cistulli was all over Contreras like a fat kid on a Smartie this past season. The catcher came out of nowhere to become one of the Cubs’ more intriguing prospects. He significantly improved his plate discipline while moving up from A-ball to Double-A for the first time in his career. Contreras, 23, averaged a strikeout rate of about 20% between 2012-14 but saw it drop to just 12% in 2015. Not only that, he showed more pop and took more walks. With Kyle Schwarber likely relocated to the outfield from catcher for good, Contreras is the catcher-of-the-future in Chicago.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Duane Underwood Jr., RHP: Underwood Jr. is a bit of an enigma. He was a highly coveted pitcher coming out of high school but he’s battled injury, seen his stuff take a step back and questions have been raised around his effort/maturity. Still, he made it to The Show in 2018, albeit for one game. He’s athletic but he has a stiff delivery and could stand to use his legs more but that might also lessen his command/control. As with most pitchers, he’s at his best when he’s down in the zone and avoids the middle of the plate. His stuff is good but it’s not overpowering. Underwood Jr. might be better suited to relieving where he can focus on his fastball and breaking ball while perhaps adding back some velo on his heater.

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It’s prospect season (thank goodness, as nothing else is happening).  Nearly one year ago I borrowed from the great work by Eric and Kiley here and applied some fantasy context to their overall Top 100 prospect rankings from 2018.  We’ll do something similar for 2019, but before the full frenzy of this season’s prospect rankings reaches it’s peak, I thought it prudent to review prospect perceptions from this time last year to see if we can learn anything.

From last year’s post, the same purpose applies:

The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).

For comparison, last year’s comments are at the top, followed by a value trend and general update on where things appear to be for each prospect heading into 2019.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Arizona Diamondbacks

If you were perusing this series back in 2013 you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Jake Lamb, 3B: I really wanted to include Lamb on the Diamondbacks’ 2013 pre-season Top 15 prospects list but he ultimately fell just short and landed in the sleeper category. Arizona third basemen enjoyed a solid season and two prospects — Lamb and Brandon Drury (considered for The Riser section) — saw their values rise significantly. Injuries held the Washington native to just 69 games on the season so he’s currently getting extra work in during the Arizona Fall League.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP: One thing the organization doesn’t do overly well is supplement its roster with homegrown players (other than in the bullpen). Yes, it’s happened in the past — with the case of a Jake Lamb or Paul Goldschmidt — but not nearly often enough for a team that is constantly fighting a battle with the budget.Those first four to six years of a player’s availability are so valuable to teams now; the club didn’t get back as much as I would have liked for Goldschmidt in terms of impact talent but they were desperate for “controllable talent.” Now on to Hirano, another new player but one that was not developed in house and cost the Diamondbacks more than they should have payed for an unproven commodity. Now, things worked out OK and Hirano had a nice year. He showed good command of both his fastball and plus splitter while inducing a healthy number of walks. The club will hope that Hirano, soon to be 35, will be effective for the final year of his two-year contract, while serving as insurance for first-year closer Archie Bradley.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series last year you would have read this:

First Taste of The Show: Brian Anderson, 3B: I’ve been a fan of Anderson since he turned pro in 2014. The former third-round selection likely won’t be a star but he should develop into a steady, everyday player for The Fish. And, after appearing in 25 big league games in 2017, he could back-up both second and third base in ’18 — or take over a starting gig if the cost-conscious Marlins get rid of Starlin Castro or Martin Prado. He has a chance to be a very good defender — especially at third base — and projects to be an average hitter with average power, although he should produce good on-base rates with his history of walking at a healthy clip.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Trevor Richards, RHP: An unheralded pitching prospect, Richards couldn’t even get drafted and ended up playing independent baseball for two years before signing with the Marlins as a free agent. His rise is far more successful than his stuff. He has a fastball that scrapes 90 miles per hour and lacks a consistent breaking ball. Even so, Richards struck out more than a batter per inning. He succeeds with fastball command, a very good changeup and above-average control. To continue having success, Richards is going to need to work down in the zone more consistently after seeing his ground-ball rate drop more than 10% over his minor league career average to a well-below-average 35.8%.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing the series in 2016 you would have read this:

The Tumbler: Trey Ball (LHP): Selected seventh overall in the 2013 draft, Ball has yet to break out despite four years of pro experience — including three in A-ball. His lack of development with his secondary stuff is especially worrisome — as is the continued regression with his control (Walk rates over last 3 years: 3.51 to 4.18 to 5.22 BB/9). Ball, 22, has a decent fastball for a southpaw so perhaps a move to the bullpen would benefit him; it would allow him to scrap the breaking ball and focus on his changeup. As very good two-way player in high school, the young athlete may also want to think about sharpening his skills in batter’s box.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Bobby Poyner, LHP: The Red Sox didn’t get a lot of help from its minor league system in 2018 with Poyner getting his first call-up. The 26-year-old hurler struck out almost 10 batters per inning despite having a fastball that sits right around 90 mph. A solid changeup and above-average control helped him survive the dangerous American League East. He’ll want to focus on keeping the ball down and inducing more ground balls going forward after posting a ground-ball rate of just 30% in his first taste of The Show. .

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Tampa Bay Rays

If you were perusing the series in 2015 you would have read this:

The Graduate: Blake Snell (LHP): Control has been Snell’s nemesis throughout his career — save for 2015 — and it came back to haunt him during his MLB debut in 2016. His 3.54 ERA was impressive — and speaks to his raw potential — when you consider his walk rate of more than five batters per nine innings. He’ll also need to better leverage his 6-4 frame to generate more ground balls after being an extreme-fly-ball pitcher in the AL East. Still, Snell succeeds by missing a lot of bats and his struck out almost 10 batters per nine innings in his freshman season. With improved command of his low-to-mis-90s fastball and slider, the young hurler could eventually develop four average or better offerings (He also has a curveball and changeup).

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Willy Adames, SS: The young shortstop made his highly-anticipated debut in 2018 and performed well — especially given he was just 22. With that said, there is room for improvement after he struck out at a 29% clip. Swing-and-miss has always been a part of his game but he has raw power to tap into and offsets the Ks, to a degree, with a healthy dose of walks, which inflates his on-base numbers. There is 20-homer potential here but he’ll need to get more consistent loft after hitting 52% of his balls on the ground during his debut. Defensively, Adames is expected to move off shortstop and his debut did nothing to quiet the concerns about his fielding.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Philadelphia Phillies

If you were perusing this series back in 2009, you would have read this:

The Graduate: J.A. Happ, LHP: Happ did not garner a lot of attention while rising through the minors, but the left-hander had a solid rookie season for the Phillies. He did a nice job of keeping runners off base with just 149 hits allowed and a walk rate of 3.04 BB/9 in 166.0 innings. Happ’s strikeout rate dipped from his minor-league average, but it was still reasonable at 6.45 K/9. If he can utilize his curveball more often, it might help him with his strikeout rate, because it will change the hitters’ eye levels. One of the biggest ugly marks on his stats line is the 38.4% ground-ball rate.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Seranthony Dominguez, RHP: A mostly unheralded minor league hurler, Dominguez burst onto the scene and overpowered big league hitters with an excellent fastball-slider mix. He also induced a strong number of ground-ball outs and even tossed in an occasional effective changeup. Dominguez’s control wavered at times but most of that occurred in the second half when he might have been getting tired (He walked 16 batters in 24.1 second-half innings, but just 22 overall for the year). The Phillies will look to be contenders in 2019 and this young, hard-throwing hurler has earned the right to open the year as the team’s closer — but veteran reliever David Robertson will be waiting in the wings.

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Earlier this week, I did a breakdown of 1B using the NFBC ADP data. I grouped them according to the draft slots and gave some thoughts on who I liked and disliked at their current costs. Since I was using the NFBC draft data, it was only listing those who are currently qualified by the standard 20-game threshold (the industry standard and also what most sites use, while Yahoo! is most lenient at just 5 games).

I was so zeroed in on the group of NFBC-eligible first basemen that I didn’t even think about a very worthwhile group of players: those certain or very likely to gain 1B eligibility early enough in the season that you can draft them with the intention of being your primary option at the position and those who fell below 20 games, but still had enough to qualify at sites using a 5- or 10-game qualifier.

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It’s prospect list season which means I’m reading a lot of words about teenagers. It’s not creepy because it’s for work. What’s your excuse?

If the various revolutions in baseball – air ball, tunneling, etc. – have taught us anything, it’s that everybody is a breakout candidate. Anyone with the potential to improve and the willingness to try something new could suddenly emerge from mediocrity into the land of stardom.

In the past, players who reached the majors were hesitant – to a superstitious degree – about changing the way they play. Now, Statcast and other analytic toolboxes have made tinkering with strength, mechanics, and approach easier than ever. Instead of blindly trying whatever a pitching or hitting coach suggested (hint, they often give the same advice to everybody), players have access to powerful, personalized data. Adjustments are built upon highly educated guesses. Not only is there less risk in trying to improve, it’s necessary to keep pace with the competition.

If any major league player can break out, the same is true of minor leaguers. However, our scouting lexicon – at least for public prospect lists – has been slow to update. What follows are three common phrases you can safely ignore when you encounter them.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The San Diego PadresIf you were perusing this series back in 2013, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Andriese, RHP Andriese has been one of my favorite sleepers for a couple years now and he continues to fly under the radar in part because he doesn’t have the electric stuff that gets scouts’ hearts palpitating. His fastball has at least average velocity but it’s the heavy sink that makes it stand out. Andriese, 24, is very close to big-league ready and he could settle in to the role of back-end, innings-eating starter.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Joey Lucchesi, LHP: What a year for Lucchesi, a former fourth round pick who needed just over one full year of baseball to reach The Show. He benefited from advanced control while incorporating basically a two-pitch attack with his fastball and changeup. Lucchesi may need to rely on a breaking ball more often in his sophomore season in the Majors now that the scouting report is out on him. He was hurt by the home run ball in 2018 and oddly gave up more homers at home. He’ll need an added weapon against right-handed hitters with almost half the hits against him going for extra bases.

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