Hey Y’all.  This week’s Stash List should be a pretty interesting list.  I wanted to bring to your attention some minor leagues that might not be rostered in your dynasty league.  This week I profile a shortstop that should be making their debut in Detroit very soon, a slugger that has some interesting speed, a southpaw killing AA, and righty making mowing down competitors at every stop.

Willi Castro -DET SS ETA 2019

The Tigers picked up Willi Castro at the trade deadline last year from Cleveland for Leonys Martin.  Castro really blasted on the scene in 2017 while in High A Lynchburg. In 123 games, he had a .290 AVG with a .337 OBP and 11 home runs and 19 stolen bases.  I got to see Castro that year when I went to Lynchburg to catch Triston McKenzie pitch. In that one game, I liked what I saw. He was a pretty slick defender and had a hit out of three plate appearances that night.  Ever since then, I’ve kept my eye on Castro.

I knew he would never supplant Francisco Lindor but I thought he had the chance to play second for the Indians in the future. The Indians started Castro in AA in 2018 and to say he struggled was an understatement.  In 97 games, Castro was hitting .245/.303/.350 before moving over to the Tigers. While there, he started to perform like 2017 Willi Castro, hitting .324/.366/.562. The Tigers promoted Castro to AAA to begin the 2019 season, and the dude is killing it. Castro is hitting .349/.426/.527 while swatting 3 home runs and stealing 8 stolen bases.  He is also walking a career-high 8.6% of the time, which is very encouraging as Castro has always been an aggressive hitter. With Ronny Rodriguez manning SS in Detroit, we might hear Willi Castro called up very soon.

Will Benson – CLE OF ETA 2022

Will Benson was drafted by the Indians in the first round of the 2016 draft right out of high school.  Benson has always had strikeout issues, with a strikeout rate never below 30% during his professional career.  Last year was a real test for Benson. It was his first taste of A ball and boy was he struggling. He had a .180 AVG but a .324 OBP which shows Benson still has a decent batting eye.  Keep in mind Benson’s BABIP last year was .218. Benson was majorly struggling but in 123 games, Benson swatted 22 home runs while picking up 12 stolen bases. So there were still some things to like in the profile.  

Cleveland assigned Benson back to A ball at the beginning of this year and things are going much better. In 45 games. Benson has a .274 AVG and .377 OBP. He has also hit 13 taters and more surprisingly has swiped 17 bags.  I’m sure we will be hearing of his promotion to AA soon. As far as fantasy, Benson is definitely a boom or bust type. He could be a Joey Gallo or someone who doesn’t make it past AAA. In dynasty leagues, I’ve been hesitant to roster guys like Benson but he hits, you will have yourself a great dynasty league piece.

Conner Menez – SFG LHP Age 24 ETA 2020

The Giants picked Conner Menez in the 14th round of the 2016 draft from The Master’s College.  The 6’3’ lefty moved quickly after being drafted; moving from Rookie ball to High A. He spent the entire 2017 season in High A, pitched 114.1 innings with a SwStk% of 10.2% but was unable to keep hitters off the basepaths, as his WHIP was ugly 1.55.  The Giants were pretty aggressive with Menez last season and he again pitched in three levels. In all three levels he posted double-digit SwStk%, with the lowest being 13.3% in 74 innings at AA.

So far in AA this year, Menez has been amazing. In 48.2 innings, he has 55 punchouts, SwStk% of 14.8%, and more impressively a WHIP of 0.99.  Menez’ fastball sits around 93-94 and mixes in a low eighties curveball and mid-eighties changeup. I’ve been impressed with the decrease in his walks. They are down to 2.77 BB/9. I expect Menez to be promoted to AAA pretty soon and that will be a pretty big test. Menez has the chance to be a 4th or 5th starter type, especially pitching in Oracle Park for most of his career.

Ryan Rolison – COL RHP Age 21 ETA 2021

Colorado Rockies first-round draft pick last year, Ryan Rolison out of the University of Mississippi, is having a great start to his professional career.  I know you are probably not interested in a Rockies pitcher for your dynasty league but you might want to pay attention to what Rolison has done so far. After being drafted, the Rockies assigned him to the Rookie League, where he pitched another 29 innings.  In those 29 innings, he racked up 34 strikeouts and a SwStk% of 14.6%. He also had an ERA of 1.86 with a WHIP of 0.79. The Rockies assigned him to A ball to begin the season where he straight up dominated. After posting an ERA of 0.61, WHIP of 0.68, with 14 strikeouts over 14 innings, he was promoted to High A.  

The promotion has not stopped Rolison either. In 40.2 innings, the southpaw has an ERA of 1.99, WHIP of 1.11, and 41 strikeouts with an 11.8 SwStk%. Some scouts say his best pitch might be his curveball but his fastball and changeup are above average as well. He frequently uses all three of his pitches and really pounds the strike zone, throwing strikes about 60% of the time.  He regularly sits mid-nineties with his fastball and mid-eighties with his secondary offerings. I would keep a close eye on Rolison over the next couple of months. Colorado, smartly, has most of its affiliates in high hitting environments so if Rolison keeps performing you might want to take a flyer on the young Rockie.

Teams spend months and months – if not years – scouting players to prepare for the annual amateur draft. And I don’t believe for even a second that I’m smarter than those scouts, scouting directors, and other front office personnel. The below piece is meant as a fun exercise and to help introduce fantasy managers to some names they’re going to need to know within the next two to three years, if not sooner.

I’ve set eyes on all these players (via video), combed over various scouting reports and reviewed statistical results, so I’m going to take a stab at drafting the first round for each of the clubs. I’m not selecting players based on where I think they’ll be taken (There are a lot of great publications already doing that – FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, etc); I’m selecting based on where I’d taken them based on the various factors listed above.

I’ve actually been doing this exercise for more than 10 years and have gotten a little bit better each year. Here’s hoping this is the best (mock) draft yet.

1. Orioles —> Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Yes, Vaughn is a first baseman but I like his swing and his track record of success in college. As well, he’s had success in the Cape Cod League, albeit just 52 at-bats. He’s also been a pitcher at the college ranks and he’s athletic enough to hold down a position in left field since he doesn’t have the ideal size or handedness for first base. He’s the impact type of prospect the Orioles can rebuild around; even better, they can probably get him for cheaper than Rutschman or Witt and spread the remaining money around to acquire some better prospects and help rebuild a very barren farm system.

2. Royals —> Adley Rutschman, C

This was a late switch for me, bumping Rutschman down to the second slot. Yes, he’s been the best college hitter but catcher’s offensive abilities almost always take a hit when the rigors of catching every day wear them down. There’s also some injury history for the young catcher, which again becomes magnified by his position. He’d help take some of the strain off of Sal Perez, too.

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Introduction:

If you are reading this article, you likely play fantasy baseball. You are already well aware of the FAAB extravaganza which occurred two weeks ago. If your fantasy squad is sitting 40 points out of the money, the lure of an impact prospect on your roster was incredibly enticing. The peer pressure of bidding on a top 10 prospect surely lured you in to spend significant free agent resources on those young rookies.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI), was created by FanGraphs’ own Justin Mason. It is a compilation of 315 fantasy baseball experts – all who put out content one way or another (writing, projections, podcasts, etc.). The experts were divided into twenty-one 15-team 5×5 mixed roto leagues, with NFBC rules and regulations.

You can find out more about TGFBI and follow the experts here. You can listen to me regularly on the official TGFBI analysis podcast, called “Beat the Shift” right here.

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I’ve been mock drafting along with the MLB amateur draft for as long as I can remember and was inspired to do so by Jim Callis, who did the same thing for Baseball America (He’s now with MLB.com). But unlike a lot of mock drafts, I choose who I would take at each slot not who I think teams will take.

I’ll be doing another mock first round on Day 1 of the draft but I thought it might be fun to look back at how well I did last year while drafting for each of the first 30 selections. Obviously, it’s too early to know exactly how the 2018 draft will play out in the long term but we can still gain some insight.

My choices are always based on a healthy dose of video review with some statistical analysis rolled in for the college players, as well as from information gleaned from player reports from Fangraphs, Baseball America and the gentlemen at the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline (the aforementioned Callis and Jonathan Mayo).

I’ve had some success making the first overall selection in the past including nabbing Kris Bryant in 2013 (He went second overall after the Astros whiffed on Mark Appel with the first pick) and Carlos Correa, who actually went first overall to the Astros in 2012, which went against the industry consensus at the time.

Looking way back to 2007, my two favorite prep arms were Tim Alderson (oops) and Madison Bumgarner.

OK, let’s get started with the review. Remember, this is a ranking of where I feel the players should be drafted based on future potential, not based on where I think they’ll actually go.

My Pick: 1. (Tigers) Casey Mize, RHP, college

Well, this one was a no-brainer for both myself and the Tigers. And Mize has looked every bit the stud hurler. He’s already in Double-A and should already be a highly-sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues. Mize has a 1.66 ERA in 14 career starts and the only though the concerns me a little bit is the lack of big strikeout numbers (68 in 70.1 innings).

My Pick: 2. (Giants) Brady Singer, RHP, college

Singer was a top pick out of high school, too, as a second-rounder who failed to sign with the Jays but he lost some luster as the 2018 draft approached with some fearing he’d develop into a future reliever. I still loved what I was seeing from him and he’s performed great in pro ball after sliding all the way to 18th overall to the Royals. He has a 2.13 ERA in 50. 2 innings in High-A ball. I definitely would not have regretted this pick, although the Giants did OK with Joey Bart, who’s been injured but effective when healthy.

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Hey y’all!  Happy Cavan Biggio, Josh Naylor and Kevin Cron Day!  I wrote about Biggo in this Stash List. In deeper leagues, I would take a flyer on Cron over Naylor.  Cron has a better path to playing time and is absolutely smashing the ball. This week’s Stash List, though,  should be an interesting one.

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The 2019 MLB amateur draft is just over a week away! The Prospect Stock Watch has been devoting time to reviewing the 2018 draft. Earlier this week, we reviewed the second round of the draft. Today’s piece is going to look into which players have so far represented the best value from the third, fourth and fifth rounds.

This piece will naturally favor college picks as they’re generally more advanced and many of the prep players taken in later rounds of the draft require extra time in extended spring training before joining full-season ball. This piece looks at players’ results as well as the potential ceilings they possess based on their tools.

Best third-round pick: Terrin Vavra, SS, Rockies

When the year began, I would have hedged my bets towards Tristan Pompey or Kody Clemens being the steals of the fourth rounds. But Pompey posted a strikeout rate near 50% in High-A ball and earned a trip back to extended spring training to work things out. Clemens is still in High-A but he’s struggled to hit consistently and his 25% strikeout rate is high for someone who’s not a power hitter. That leads us to Vavra, who was drafted out of the University of Minnesota, and with less pedigree – although his brothers played pro ball, too. The middle infielder has shown good pop and a solid plate approach with a BB-K of 21-36 in 41 games. The line-drive rate sits at 24% and once Vavra gets a little stronger, he should start to hit even more balls over the fence. It remains to be seen if Vavra can stick at shortstop but he appears to have the offensive profile to stick at a number of different positions.

Runner Up: Owen Miller, SS, Padres

San Diego though enough of Miller’s strong pro debut in 2018 to jump him over High-A ball and assign him directly to Double-A. He’s barely missed a beat with a .301 average, and has now hit .300 at every level he’s played out. The downside to Miller is that his ceiling is somewhat limited with modest power and limited stolen base acumen. With that said, and although just 13 of his 52 hits have gone for extra bases, he has generated a 27% line-drive rate so there could be more gap pop (ie. doubles and triples) to come as he matures. He’s even more likely to end up at second base, or serve as an offensive-minded utility player.

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With the MLB amateur draft just over two weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is checking in on some 2018 draft picks. A lot of attention is always paid on first-round picks so let’s have a look at some of the players that slipped out of the first round last year and landed in the second round. The players listed below have all had strong starts to their pro career and are great reminders that you can find strong prospect values in other rounds. All the players listed below should be monitored for future value in dynasty leagues and, eventually, redraft leagues.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, Giants: Hjelle has a massive frame at 6-foot-11 but he’s not a power pitcher. Still, low-A ball hitters have struggled to handle him. He’s struck out 44 batters in 40.2 innings while inducing ground balls at a high rate of two-to-one. It’s time for the Giants to challenge the right-hander with a promotion to high-A ball as he should be overpowering these young hitters after a three-year college career. He’s a name to file away and monitor over the next couple of years.

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5/16/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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Hey y’ all!  Another week, another round of interesting prospects making their major league debuts.  The calls up are really getting fun. I was disappointed to see the Nationals demote Carter Kieboom to AAA but not overly surprised.  Kieboom is not the best defender, which was on full display during his time in Washington, but he can really hit. I’m sure he’ll get the call again later this year and will be the Nationals opening day second baseman next year. But enough with the sadness, I have another four prospects having great seasons that you might want to keep your eye or stash on your minor league roster.

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Behold! Another installment of Peripheral Prospects, the low-price, off-brand fantasy baseball version of Fringe Five. Brad Johnson and I have brought something on the order of five minor leaguers per week who make us feel — like, really feel. These players tend to be unloved and unheralded but very much deserving of love and, uh, herald, not unlike the two authors of this series.

Some quick housekeeping, per usual:

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