Archive for Prospects

Welcome to the Mountain: Jhoulys Chacin

When set-up man Manny Corpas was placed on the disabled list last Friday by the Colorado Rockies, the club promoted one of its top starting-pitching prospects and placed him into the big-league bullpen.

Jhoulys Chacin made his MLB debut on July 25 against the San Francisco Giants. The 21-year-old Venezuelan worked a scoreless, hit-less inning. He walked one batter and struck out two (including veteran Juan Uribe to end the game) in the 8-2 win for the Rockies. Against the Giants, the game plan from catcher Chris Iannetta was clear: Get ahead in the count with fastballs and then drop the hook, which Chacin did successfully with both his strikeout victims.

Chacin has the potential to be a dominating late-game reliever, but he’s shown throughout his pro career that he also has a chance to be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, so his work in the ‘pen should be short-lived. It’s a smart move by the organization to ease the right-hander in slowly, given that he has not pitched above double-A until now. This season in Tulsa, he’s allowed 87 hits in 103.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.05 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.49 K/9. His control has taken a step back this year, as he walked about two batters per nine innings last year. His strikeout rate has also dropped about one K per nine innings over 2008. Chacin’s 4.01 FIP is also much higher than his 3.14 ERA and with a .273 BABIP, he’s probably been helped a fair bit by his defense.

The Rockies prospect has a good sinking fastball that peaks at 94 mph and he also has a nice changeup. His breaking ball is still a work in progress and is one of the main culprits behind his struggles at double-A in 2009. With any luck, while pitching out of the Colorado bullpen, he can work on sharpening up his curve. To further his development and value, though, the Rockies coaches will have to ensure that Chacin works on the pitch in game situations and does not stick the pitch in his back pocket in favor of his fastball-changeup combo.

Just 21, Chacin has a bright future in Colorado, especially with a career minor league ground-ball rate of 59.6%. The right-hander could end up being a key, young arm late in the 2009 season for the Colorado Rockies, but his fantasy baseball value should be much higher in 2010 and beyond as a member of the starting rotation.


Seattle Rolls Out Saunders

The Seattle Mariners organization continued its aggressive promotion of prospects this past weekend when it promoted outfielder Michael Saunders from triple-A. The move adds yet another solid defensive player to the outfield mix, which already includes Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ryan Langerhans (Endy Chavez is on the 60-day DL).

A native Canadian, Saunders was an 11th-round selection out of a British Columbia high school in 2004, but he spent one season at a Florida community college before entering pro ball in ’05. His biggest strength as a defensive player is his strong arm, which could make him a solid right-fielder if his power develops as projected. He can play center field, as well, where his range is considered average.

At the plate, Saunders has shown a consistent ability to hit between .270 and .300. His power output has increased each of the past four seasons, with his ISO rising each year from .106 in 2006 to .234 in 2009. Saunders has seen his walk rate dip a bit in the past two seasons (down to 9.2 BB% in 2009), but he has trimmed almost 10% off of his strikeout rate this year.

Early on in his career, the left-handed hitter actually performed better against southpaws than right-handers, but that has changed since he started facing better pitching in double-A and triple-A. Saunders has struggled against lefties over the past two seasons, although he is not completely useless against them (.247/.312/.400 vs LHP compared to .344/.411/.620 vs RHP in ’09).

On the base paths, Saunders has started to slow down the running game as his body has filled out a bit. His stolen base totals have dropped from 29 in 2007 to 12 to just six in 2009. Saunders has always had average speed, but his instincts allowed him to steal 20-plus bases each season and he should still be good for five to 10 a year at the Major League level.

Overall, Saunders currently shows the potential to produce a 15 homer/15 stolen base season in a full season. In his prime, though, he should be able to top the 20-homer mark, but the stolen bases will decrease with age. His playing time could be affected by the fact that he is a left-handed batter, just like Ichiro, Langerhans, Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. Of the outfielders currently on the big-league roster, only Gutierrez swings from the right side.


The LaRoche Loot is Underwhelming

The Boston Red Sox acquired veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday for two minor league prospects: shortstop Argenis Diaz, and right-handed pitcher Hunter Strickland. Make no doubt about it, this was a salary dump by the Pittsburgh Pirates (and another shrewd move by a very smart organization… Boston).

Diaz, the better of the two prospects acquired by Pittsburgh, has the upside of… Jack Wilson. Now, if the Pirates can avoid paying him $6 or $7 million a season, than he might have some value. Truthfully, though, his value is tied solely to his glove, as he’s an above-average defensive player. With the stick, he’s probably going to produce Ramon Vazquez or Adam Everett numbers. Diaz doesn’t hit for power (.058 ISO), he doesn’t hit for average (.253 average in ’09), he doesn’t walk (7.0 BB%) and he doesn’t steal bases (His seven steals this year are a career high). Yes, he’s only 22 but there is really nothing to build on. Not one of those four categories I mentioned has seen an improvement in four pro seasons.

Strickland is a right-handed starter who doesn’t throw overly hard and relies on command and control to succeed. His fastball ranges 87-91 mph and he can add a couple more miles per hour when needed. He also has a slider and changeup. His numbers over the course of the past two seasons have been respectable. In 2009 in low-A, Stickland has allowed 85 hits in 83.1 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 1.40 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.51 K/9. Homers have been a problem with 11 leaving the yard (1.19 HR/9). He has a 3.35 ERA, but a 4.34 FIP.

The truth is that this trade probably won’t help you if your a fantasy baseball manager. Diaz’ bat is about a year away from the Majors, but he does provide some depth if (when) Pittsburgh accepts what Wilson’s true trade value is and he’s dealt in another salary dump. Strickland is a long way away from reaching his ceiling as a middle reliever, or maybe a No. 4 starter.

Where this move helps fantasy owners is in the playing time that this should free up for Steve Pearce in Pittsburgh. It’s about time that he receives a fair (and extended) shot at playing regularly in the Majors. I hope this trade is not a move to free up first base for Garrett Jones, who is significantly playing over his head right now (Hello, Kevin Maas). At the age 28, Jones’ ceiling is limited.


Minor Impacts: July 16

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Freddie Freeman: The Atlanta Braves organization recently promoted its two top offensive prospects from high-A to double-A. Freeman, a first baseman, had a breakout 2008 season, in what was his first full year in the minors after being selected in the second round of the 2007 draft out of a California high school. The prospect, who recently turned 20, hit .316/.378/.521 with 18 homers in 491 at-bats. This season, he began the year in high-A where he hit .302/.394/.447 with six homers in 255 at-bats. So far in double-A, Freeman is hitting .294 with three doubles in nine games. Although he does not walk a ton, the left-handed hitter does not strike out much (16.1 K%), compared to other power hitters. Defensively, he is above average and he has a strong arm as a former prep hurler who was committed to Cal State Fullerton as a two-way player.

Jason Heyward: This power-hitting outfielder was, like Freeman, a steal from the 2007 draft. The Braves nabbed the Georgia native with the 14th overall pick of the draft. An advanced hitter for a prep signee, Heyward has a career line of .312/.379/.491 in 733 at-bats – and he’s still just 19 years old. Earlier this season in high-A ball, Heyward hit .296/.369/.519 with 10 homers in 189 at-bats, while missing time with an injury. In a good pitcher’s park, the left-handed hitter posted a walk rate of 10 BB% and a strikeout rate of 15.9 K%. Since his promotion to double-A, Heyward is hitting .346/.438/.615 with three doubles and two triples in eight games. Neither Freeman nor Heyward should see the Majors this season, but they should both be kept in mind for 2010… They could both be up before the MLB All-Star break, depending on the big league club’s playoff hopes.

Danny Valencia: It’s been a rough offensive season for the Minnesota Twins. Incumbent third baseman Joe Crede is hitting .234/.297/.452, while back-up Brian Buscher is hitting .210/.350/.310. Help, though, may be on the way. Valencia does not have the same pedigree that other top prospects have, as a former 19th round selection out of the University of Miami. However, he’s clawed his way to the top and is on the cusp of giving some offensive aid to the Twins’ big league club. In four seasons, Valencia has a triple-slash line of .305/.363/.489. He began the 2009 season in double-A, where he hit .284/.373/.482 with seven homers in 218 at-bats. Recently promoted to triple-A, Valencia is currently hitting .360/.372/.573 with three homers and seven doubles in 19 games. His 2.6% walk rate at triple-A suggests he has a little work to do with his approach. However, the right-handed hitter is almost big-league ready and has the potential to be an average Major League third baseman.

Terry Evans: If you think Valencia is a long-shot made good, meet Evans. This Angels outfield prospect was selected out of a small junior college in the 47th round in the 2002 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals organization. He had four nondescript years in the minors before breaking out offensively in 2006. The next season, Evans was traded to the Angels organization and he made his MLB debut (eight games). Outfield depth in the system kept him at triple-A in 2008 and an injury cost him much of the season. Back at full strength in 2009, Evans is putting on a show with a line of .287/.333/.520 in 348 at-bats. He also has 17 homers and 20 steals in 23 attempts. Although he’s already 27, Evans is showing 30-30 ability at the triple-A level. His poor plate rates will probably limit his ceiling in the Majors, but this late bloomer has some big-league potential, even if only as a part-time player.

Esmil Rogers: For long-time fans, it is still hard to wrap one’s mind around the fact that Colorado could produce effective Major League pitchers. But in this new era, talented pitchers can actually survive in the Rockies. Rogers, 23, has been slowly navigating the Colorado minor league system since coming over to North America in 2006. He’s really taken his game to another level this season, thanks to improved command and control of his solid repertoire: low-to-mid-90s fastball, good curveball and improving changeup. At double-A, Rogers allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.81 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.92 K/9. The right-hander was recently promoted to triple-A, where he’s made just one start (6 IP, 3 R).

Hector Rondon: Another quietly-blooming Latin prospect, Rondon’s name is slowly gaining popularity among prospect watchers. The right-handed hurler broke out in a big way in 2008 and has continued to improve in 2009. He began this season in double-A where he allowed 60 hits in 72 innings of work. The 21-year-old pitcher also posted a walk rate of 2.00 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.13 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Rondon has made just one start and he did not allow a hit over six innings, while walking two and striking out eight. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 94-95 mph, a plus changeup, and a developing slider. He has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter.


Minor Impacts: July 9

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, and Daniel Bard.

Alex Avila: The Detroit Tigers organization does not have a very deep minor-league system so it’s an exciting day when a prospect exceeds expectation. That is exactly what Avila has done since signing as a 2008 fifth round draft pick out of the University of Alabama. The catcher has built off of a strong junior year in college to become an above-average offensive catcher. After hitting .305 in his debut season, Avila has continued to bat .300 in 2009, while also adding more power with 21 doubles and eight homers in 247 at-bats. He’s striking out a bit (23.5 K%) but he’s also showing good patience (13.9 BB%). Add in that Avila is a left-handed batter and you have the heavy side of a platoon with either Gerald Laird or Dusty Ryan (in the very near future).

Lance Zawadzki: The San Diego Padres organization had eight picks before the third round of the 2007 draft so it looked for some ways to save money in later rounds. Shortstop Zawadzki was nabbed in the fourth round as a senior at a small NAIA college (Having transferred away from San Diego State after a terrible junior year). The infielder was one of those players who always had a ton of potential but just could not put everything together – in part due to injuries. Zawadzki’s first full pro season in 2008 was modest but he’s broken out in a big way in 2009. He hit .276/.360/.552 with 10 homers in 145 at-bats in high-A ball. The 24-year-old prospect was then promoted to double-A where he’s hitting .346/.428/.512 with three homers in 127 at-bats. Zawadzki also stole 28 bases in 31 attempts in 2008, so he has some speed. Given the lack of middle infield options on the big league club, this under-the-radar prospect could see time in San Diego before the year is out.

Kila Ka’aihue: It’s safe to say that the love that the Kansas City Royals organization received over the winter for its “shrewd moves” is over. The move that received the most scrutiny was probably the acquisition of one-dimensional hitter Mike Jacobs. One of the most puzzling parts of the decision to add Jacobs was that the club already had a breakout, MLB-ready first baseman in Ka’aihue, who batted .315 with 37 homers (and excellent on-base skills) between double-A and triple-A in 2008. His batting average is down this year to .265, but he still has more walks than strikeouts (1.03 BB/K) and he’s hitting for more power than Jacobs (ISO: .228 vs .186). Ka’aihue would probably be of much more value to the big league club right now, but the organization would be admitting it made a huge mistake with the Jacobs acquisition.

Brian Matusz: We looked at Matusz earlier this season in this column and the picture has only gotten brighter for the left-handed pitching prospect. The bad news for the former No. 1 pick, though, is that the Baltimore Orioles organization is absolutely stacked with upper-level pitching talent. Regardless, the big league club is not going to be able to ignore him for long. After posting a 2.11 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 11 high-A starts, Matusz has posted a 0.34 ERA (1.57 FIP) in four double-A starts. He’s allowed just 11 hits and six walks in 26.1 innings of work. The southpaw has also struck out 32 batters and has yet to allow a home run in double-A. The 22-year-old hurler has more than justified his fourth-overall selection in the 2008 draft.

Zach Braddock: One of the hardest things to do with talented prospects is to be patient. The Milwaukee Brewers organization has been rewarded for its patience with Braddock, a 2005 18th round selection out of community college. The southpaw was inconsistent in his first three pro seasons, while showing flashes of brilliance. Moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in 2009, he’s taken off and been able to stay healthy. Braddock posted a 1.09 ERA (1.74 FIP) in 24.2 innings of work in high-A, while posting a walk rate of just 1.46 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 14.59 K/9. He’s continued to deal after a promotion to double-A. In 9.2 innings, Braddock has allowed nine hits and three walks, while striking out 13 batters. His repertoire includes an above-average fastball that touches 93-94 mph out of the pen, as well as a good slider and an occasional changeup.

Sam Demel: A move to the bullpen while at Texas Christian University really made Demel’s career. He’s taken off as a reliever in the A’s organization after signing as a third-round pick from the 2007 draft. The 23-year-old right-hander struck out 90 batters in 67 high-A innings in 2008. He then posted a 0.61 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9 in 29.1 double-A innings in 2009. Demel has since been promoted to triple-A, where he has yet to allow a run in four appearances. He’s given up three hits (but four walks) and struck out eight in 5.2 innings. With a little more control, Demel could be a future late-game reliever for the A’s organization.


Thank Heavens for Evans?

Nick Evans is now a major league baseball player, and he’s getting some at-bats in left field and in a first-base platoon with Daniel Murphy. The flailing Mets seem to be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Evans, but the fan base is clamoring for a more impressive solution.

Could they possibly ’solve’ their temporary 1B problems with a Murphy/Evans platoon? Murphy’s career minor league split OPS against lefties is not great at .725. Well, at least Nick Evans can handle lefties, as his his .914 OPS against lefties in 421 minor league at-bats can attest. Put together the two half-players and you could actually have a decent stop-gap first baseman for the time being.

But should that keep the team from trading Evans should a better solution come along? His minor league progression has been a halting one. He started poorly and didn’t crack an .800 OPS in his first 500 plate appearances.

In fact, he didn’t have a strong full year until he hit St. Lucie in his fourth pro year. In 2007, he hit .286/.374/.476 and burst onto the Mets prospect scene. It does matter, though, that the park factor for St. Lucie that year was a 1.15 for home runs, and that the park has played as a hitter’s haven. Plus, he still had those three full years of poor play behind him.

When he hit AA Binghamton in 2008 and followed up with a .311/.365/.561 line, though, the Mets might have gotten a little giddy. They might have been forgiven for thinking they had Carlos Delgado’s future replacement in their hands. They probably felt that he would play his way into some major league playing time after a little seasoning in AAA.

Ooops. The old, that is to say young, Evans showed up in Buffalo, and his .093/.218/.227 start was too nasty for the brass. The team demoted him back to the friendly confines of Binghamton, where he put up a mediocre .276/.350/.467 slash line in 117 at-bats. Then, all of a sudden, it didn’t matter what he was actually doing, since the major league team needed a warm body. As of now he’s playing well in the major leagues… in very few at-bats.

There will be some that will say that he’s a keeper. Murphy is done, they’ll say, and thank heavens for Evans! That’s a bit short-sighted. There’s not actually that much to like about Evans: as he’s advanced in the minor league system, his strikeout rate has gotten worse, and his walk rate (mediocre at around 8%) has stayed the same. His .462 slugging percentage in the minors is nothing to write home about, and both of his career years in the minors came in parks that played as hitters parks. Neither was his .768 minor league OPS versus righties.

This is not to rain on the parade. He might be a really good fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. If he can improve his split against righties, he may even rise to about an average level as a first baseman. In a platoon situation, he can rake against lefties and can help in the short-term, so he has value on the bench.

He’s no savior, and the odds are still against him being a regular. If Omar Minaya can improve the team by shipping Evans out, he should do it.


Wasted Talent in Texas

You have to give Texas manager Ron Washington some credit for helping to turn around the Rangers franchise and make it a legitimate playoff contender in 2009. You can also, though, give the third-year Texas manager credit for wearing down his regular position players, and especially his starting catcher. To make matters worse, Washington is also ruining a pretty good talent in the process.

To this point, Texas has played 74 games. Young catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 24, has appeared in 58 games (78%). Back-up catcher and promising rookie (among the club’s 10 best prospects entering the season) Taylor Teagarden, 25, has appeared in just 19 games (26%).

I could maybe understand this if Saltalamacchia was head-and-shoulders above Teagarden both offensively and/or defensively. However, the starting catcher does not have the strongest reputation as a defensive catcher. In fact, there was talk at one point that he would have to move to first base. Teagarden, on the other hand, was considered the best defense catcher in all of college baseball when he was drafted in the third round out of the University of Texas in 2005. He continued to showcase good defensive skills in the minors, as well as the ability to throw out a ton of base runners on a consistent basis.

Offensively, Saltalamacchia is hitting .250/.297/.377 in 204 at-bats on the season. He also has a strikeout rate of 37.3%, which is borderline horrendous. Toss in a walk rate of 6.4%, as well as the habit of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone almost 35% of the time, and you have a pretty poor approach at the plate. Teagarden is hitting .230/.299/.311 in just 61 at-bats so he hasn’t even had a chance to get in a groove. The rookie has played in back-to-back games just twice this season and the last time came on April 30/May 1. His last three appearances were on June 12th, 18th, and 24th – each six days apart. Is that any way to treat a promising rookie?

This is not the first time that Washington has ridden his starting catcher too heavily. In 2007, he played Gerald Laird in 120 games, while relying on back-up catchers Adam Melhuse and Chris Stewart for just 41 games combined. I also watched a number of Rangers spring training games that season and was amazed at how many innings the manager had Laird play in the Arizona heat.

Texas is not an easy place to play because of the extremely warm weather in the summer, and the catcher’s position is the most demanding, for obvious reasons. Sure, Pudge Rodriguez caught an inhuman number of game behind the plate in his Rangers career, but he was an exception to the rule. Under the heavy workload, Saltalamacchia’s numbers have dipped each month, from .276/.300/.448 in April to .239/.271/.299 in June. His OPS has gone from .748 to .707 to .570.

There is absolutely no reason why Washington should be relying so heavily on Saltalamacchia, while an equally-promising young catcher (more so on defense) wastes away on the bench. There are plenty of veteran minor league catchers who could offer league-average offense for a back-up catcher, while providing excellent mentoring for Saltalamacchia and leadership to the young pitchers on the staff. Three names to consider would be Sal Fasano in Colorado Springs, Mark Johnson in Iowa and Dusty Brown in Pawtucket.

Teagarden has above-average raw power and excellent defensive skills, which could make him an extremely valuable starting catcher for a long time, even if he does hit just .230-.250. Washington’s use of him, though, is hurting his present and future value. The young catcher would be much better off playing everyday in the minors. The club could also use him as trade bait to bring in some MLB-ready pitching. The problem is, though, that the club is also ruining his trade value. If Teagarden ever escapes from Washington’s treatment, he has the potential to become a solid fantasy league option at the catching position.

Someone needs to step up and talk some sense into the manager.


What Ever Happened to Nepotism?

As you’ve probably already heard from some of the other great sites covering minor league baseball around The Net, the annual Futures Game rosters have been announced. And, as usually, both the U.S. roster and the World roster are stuffed with talented prospects.

One interesting name of the U.S roster is second baseman Eric Young Jr. of the Colorado Rockies. For whatever reason, though, the Rockies organization is not nearly as enamored with the infielder as I am… which is odd given the marketing angle with Young Jr.’s father Eric Sr. having been the Rockies’ first ever second baseman back in 1993. The younger Young also has a proven minor league track record of success at the plate and on the base paths, which should make this a match made in heaven.

The 24-year-old speedster is still plugging away in triple-A midway through the 2009 season, despite the fact that be performed very well in double-A last year, as well as in the Arizona Fall League. This season, Young has a triple-slash line of .292/.383/.413 in 264 at-bats, along with 43 stolen bases in 51 attempts. The switch-hitter also has a respectable walk rate of 11.1% and has decreased his strikeout rate by three percent over last year to 16.3%.

Currently, the Rockies’ MLB roster boasts three players who are capable of playing second base: Clint Barmes (.275/.322/.470), Omar Quintanilla (.222/.344/.259), and Ian Stewart (.218/.300/.479). Not one member of the trio has played well enough this season to warrant a regular gig. Obviously, Quintanilla would be the easiest player to jettison, while leaving Barmes to back-up the middle infield and Stewart to back-up the infield corners.

Barmes has seen the most playing time at second base this season and he has an OK batting average, but he’s not really providing much else – just slightly above-average power and limited base-stealing skills. Young, on the other hand, could provide some much-needed speed to the Rockies lineup with his ability to steal 40-60 bases over the course of a full season. He also has surprising pop, which could be aided by the Colorado air.

Looking ahead, Barmes will be entering his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter and is already making $1.6 million. Perhaps the Rockies could save some money by flipping Barmes to a contender (like the Mets? Or Cincinnati?) before the trading deadline and receive back a B-level prospect. The worst case scenario would have Young falling flat on his face, which would mean that the club would have to toss $1.5 to $3 million at a veteran second base in the off-season, which be about the same amount it would cost to keep Barmes in the fold for the 2010 season.


Two Young Center Fielders

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.


Minor Impacts: June 25

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.

Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.

Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.

Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.

Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.

Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.

Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.

Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.