Kenji Johjima won’t be back with the Seattle Mariners next year. The 33 year-old backstop, signed out of Japan prior to the 2006 season, has decided to return home. He leaves two years and $16M on the table, as part of an ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract extension covering the 2009-2011 seasons (is “ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract” redundant?)

Johjima posted solid 2006 and 2007 campaigns, with wOBA’s of .338 and .327, respectively. However, his offense fell off a cliff in 2008 (.272 wOBA), and he turned in another mediocre season in 2009 (.305 wOBA). Johjima’s walk and strikeout rates remained stable, but his BABIP tumbled from the low-.290’s over the 2006-2007 seasons to the .240 range from 2008-2009.

That’s extremely low, but the former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk had a few factors working against him: he hit a lot of groundballs (never a good idea for a slow-footed backstop) and he popped the ball up often (infield flies are near automatic outs).

With Johjima now out of the picture, Seattle’s internal options behind the dish are Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.

Johnson, 26, split time with Johjima this past season. The University of Houston alumnus is known more for his defensive virtues than his lumber. Johnson has authored a .270/.323/.389 line during his minor league career , including a .270/.323/.381 triple-slash in three seasons at AAA Tacoma.

The righty batter was an absolute hacker his first time around the Pacific Coast League in 2006, walking in 3.7% of his PA, punching out 22 percent and posting a lousy .258 wOBA. In 2007, he bumped that wOBA up to .311, drawing a free pass 8.5% and whiffing 14.7%. Johnson posted similar walk and strikeout numbers in 2008, but his wOBA climbed to .351 (he hit for slightly more power, but a 40 point increase in BABIP boosted that figure).

In his first extended big league trial, Johnson batted just .213/.289/.326 in 290 PA, with a .274 wOBA. On the positive side, he walked in 9.2% of his PA. But as you might expect from that line, there were plenty of problems with Johnson’s lumber.

He was jammed at a sky-high rate, with an infield/fly ball rate of 20 percent (7th-highest among batters with 250+ PA). Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs, as Johnson posted an ugly -1.7 run/100 pitches value against heaters (5th-worst among batters with 250+ PA). He posted a negative run value against curves, sliders, cutters and changeups, as well.

Moore, 25, is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective. A 6th-rounder in the 2006 draft taken out of Texas-Arlington, Moore has shown considerably more offensive promise.

In 2007, he batted a robust .307/.371/.543 at High-A High Desert. That ball park is a launching pad, but his park-adjusted line of .296/.363/.498 was still pretty tasty.

Bumped up to AA West-Tennessee in 2008, Moore mashed to the tune of .319/.396/.506. He walked 8.5% of the time, with a modest 17.9% K rate and a .186 ISO.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA and AAA Tacoma. Back at West-Tennessee, he showed excellent plate discipline (14.4 BB%), batting .263/.371/.411 in 116 PA.

With the Rainers, Moore posted a .294/.346/.429 triple-slash in 368 PA. He walked 7.1 percent and punched out 15 percent, with a .135 ISO. Moore was called up to Seattle in September, drawing a few starts down the stretch.

As a guy in his mid-twenties, Moore isn’t a monster prospect. But, he has enough offensive ability to be a league-average (.330-.335 wOBA) hitter. That’s pretty valuable, when one considers that the average MLB catcher hit just .254/.320/.395 in 2009. That equates to a wOBA around .324.

The Mariners could opt to bring in a veteran via free agency, but the pickings appear slim. Assuming Seattle sticks with Johnson and Moore, fantasy owners should be rooting for Moore to grab the starting gig.

Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ’09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010

Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ’09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011

Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).

The third base position in Cincinnati has been a busy place in 2009. Edwin Encarnacion began the year as the club’s starter before injuries and a subsequent trade to Toronto ended his storyline. Other players such as Adam Rosales, Drew Sutton, and Paul Janish have also spent time there, although the latter’s batting average of .217 tops the trio.

The trade of Encarnacion was made to bring in veteran Scott Rolen, a good defensive player who was having a solid offensive season with Toronto. Since coming back to the National League, Rolen has hit just .263/.342/.364 in 114 at-bats, and he was slowed with post-concussion symptoms after a beaning in one of his first games with the Reds.

Rolen is signed to a hefty contract for 2010 – and the Reds also paid a large price in young arms for him – so he’ll be the everyday guy next year, if healthy. That leaves the status of two upper-level third base prospects in limbo. Both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are near-MLB-ready. In fact, Francisco was called up to the Majors in September.

Both players began the year in double-A. Francisco spent the majority of time at the hot corner. He hit .281/.317/.501 with 22 homers in 437 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then promoted to triple-A where he hit .359/.384/.598 with another five homers in 92 at-bats. That earned him his first big-league shot. On the downside of Francisco’s numbers, the 22-year-old prospect walked just 4.3% of the time in 2009, which sadly is a career high for him. A rate like that (along with a K rate of 22%) will not translate into much success in the Majors, regardless of how well he’s done in the minors. Francisco’s glove at third base also begs for the DH role in the National League.

Frazier moved to the outfield to accommodate Francisco in double-A in ’09. He’s also seen time at second base. His best position, though, remains third base. The 23-year-old prospect hit .290/.350/.481 with 40 doubles in 451 at-bats in double-A. A late-season promotion to triple-A resulted in a line of .302/.362/.476 with another five doubles in 63 at-bats. Overall, he also slugged 16 homes. His walk rate of 8.6% is not great, but it’s double what Francisco had to offer. Frazier’s strikeout rate was also about 10% lower than his teammate’s.

Neither player will see much time at the hot corner in Cincinnati in 2010, barring an injury to Rolen. Both players are still young, though, and someone will likely have to take over in 2011. The safer bet for that job would be Frazier as he is a better overall hitter and fielder. Francisco potentially has a higher upside but the walk rate is a huge concern, as the only big leaguers with a similar walk rate and strikeout rate are Clint Barmes of the Rockies and Aaron Rowand of the Giants.

Frazier could be a valuable player for the Reds, as well as fantasy managers, in 2010. He has a solid approach that leads to excellent gap power (that could easily turn into HR power with more experience) and he has the potential to hit for a solid average. His defensive versatility would also make him a flexible resource at numerous positions (2B, 3B, OF). Francisco’s three straight 20+ homer seasons may be more enticing, but Frazier remains the safer bet.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Chris Carter: Oakland’s Chris Carter is an interesting prospect. A look at his numbers show massive potential with a double-A line of .334/.433/.567 in 485 at-bats. He had 40 doubles and 23 homers, as well as 106 runs driven in – the second time he’s topped 100 in as many years. Carter also maintains a solid walk rate (14.3 BB% in ’09) and he trimmed his strikeout rate by six percent over last year (30.8 to 24.3 K%). The 22-year-old first baseman also stole 13 bases in 18 attempts and recently earned a late-season promotion to triple-A. On the downside, Carter had a .404 BABIP in double-A, which is highly unsustainable. As well, scouts have questions about how well his swing will work in the Majors and he has a lot of trouble hitting breaking balls. Carter also does not have a defensive home. Despite a strong arm, he is average at best at first base due to poor hands. He’s also been tried at third base and right field, with little success. Carter is basically a designated hitter who should hit a bunch of homers and take his fair share of walks while hitting .260-.280 and piling up the Ks in the Majors.

David Lough: It’s been another depressing year in KCville. Top hitting prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have underwhelmed. However, the Royals have seen a few players step forward, such as Jeff Bianchi, Jordan Parraz, and Lough. An 11th-round selection out of tiny Mercyhurst College in 2007, Lough has really played well this year after a so-so first full season in pro ball in 2008. Beginning 2009 in high-A, the left-handed hitter posted a line of .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. Since moving up to double-A, Lough has continued to hit well with a line of .332/.371/.537 in 190 at-bats. The Ohio native has enough speed to steal 15-20 bases and gap power that could produce 10-15 homers. He does a nice job making contact and has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Unfortunately, he does not walk nearly enough (5 BB% in 2009) but he keeps the strikeouts to a respectable level (14 K% in ’09). With a .119 average versus left-handers in double-A, Lough has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid being platooned at the MLB level.

Chris Pettit: This Angels prospect has shown solid skills over the past few seasons but he just can’t stay healthy. Signed as a college senior out of Loyal Marymount University, Pettit has made the most of his solid-average abilities and he now projects to be a solid fourth outfielder and occasional starter. The right-handed hitter is a lefty killer with a line of .400/.509/.670 against them in 100 at-bats in 2009 at triple-A. Overall, Pettit has a line of .325/.383/.488 with 26 doubles and 16 steals in 326 at-bats. He does a nice job of keeping the strikeouts at bay with a rate of 15.4 K%, but his walk rates have decreased as he’s moved up the ladder (7.3 BB% in ’09). Defensively, Pettit can play all three outfield positions.

Jaime Garcia: The Cardinals organization has been absolutely snake-bitten when it comes to developing pitching prospects over the past 10 years. Southpaw Garcia was on the cusp of securing a big-league role in 2008 when he blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. Control was never a huge strength of Garcia’s, but it’s looked pretty good in seven post-surgery appearances – especially considering that command and control usually suffer afterward. Still just 23, the Mexico native has plenty of time to re-firm-up his plus breaking ball. He could find himself back in the Majors by mid-2010 with the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for St. Louis.

Jeremy Hellickson: This right-hander has officially passed both Jacob McGee and Wade Davis as the top pitching prospect in the Rays system. It took a little while for scouts to warm up to Hellickson because he’s not as flashy as the other two pitching prospects but he is a better all-around pitcher and far more consistent. The 22-year-old hurler began the year in double-A and allowed 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. Since a promotion to triple-A, he’s allowed 24 hits in 35.1 innings. He also has a 3.06 BB/9 walk rate and a 9.93 K/9 strikeout rate. Hellickson has a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and changeup. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Pitching is still a strength in the organization with Matthew Moore, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein also blazing through the system.

Trystan Magnuson: Magnuson was a bit of a surprise supplemental first round draft pick in the 2007 draft, as a fifth-year senior at the University of Louisville. With multiple picks in the first few rounds, though, the Jays organization needed to save some money and it felt Magnuson would move quickly through the system. Shifted to the starting rotation in 2008 at low-A, the right-hander struggled mightily. Moved back to the ‘pen in 2009, Magnuson pitched pretty well in high-A and received a late-season promotion to double-A, which is where he should begin the 2010 season. At the rate that the Jays organization goes through pitchers, he should get a MLB shot next year if he continues to improve. Magnuson, 24, has a fastball that can touch 94 mph out of the bullpen, as well as a good (but inconsistent) slider. He also gets his fair share of worm-burning outs, and Toronto loves its ground-ball pitchers.

Robbie Weinhardt: Toronto loves ground-ball pitchers and Detroit loves its flame-throwing relievers. The organization grabbed five college relievers in the first 10 rounds of the 2008 draft with the hopes that they would provide quick relief in a system that significantly lacked pitching depth. Ryan Perry (1st round) has established himself in the Majors, while Brett Jacobson (fourth round) was used to acquire Aubrey Huff in a recent trade with Baltimore. Weinhardt, the fifth reliever taken by the Tigers (10th round), has been perhaps the second most impressive reliever taken by the Tigers in the ’08 draft. Beginning 2009 in high-A, he allowed 24 hits in 31.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. Moved up to double-A, the right-hander has allowed 20 hits in 25 innings of work, while allowing a walk rate of 3.96 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.36 K/9. Weinhardt has a low-90s fastball that can touch 94 mph, as well as a changeup and slider. He looks like a future set-up man.

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Brian Bogusevic: Pitcher-to-hitter conversions have been pretty trending over the past few seasons and Bogusevic’s switch received a lot of attention last year. Things have quieted down in that regard in 2009, but the talented outfielder just keeps plugging along for Houston in triple-A. He currently has a line of .278/.354/.374, which is extremely encouraging considering that this is his first full season as a hitter. The biggest disappointment to this point has been his lack of power, something that was a strength of his in college. Currently, his ISO is just .098. However, he is hitting for a decent average, he’s stolen 18 bases in 21 tries and he’s taken his fair share of walks (10.2 BB%). Bogusevic, a left-handed hitter, does struggle against southpaws with an OPS of just .650. The 25-year-old has the potential to be a solid regular center fielder, but he probably won’t be a star.

Josh Bell: Entering the 2009 season, the Baltimore Orioles organization had a problem. Incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora was getting older and his numbers were beginning to slip. As the season now nears its end, nothing has changed in that regard. However, the club now has a replacement, something that was sorely lacking at the beginning of the season. Bell, 22, has responded to the trade by hitting .364/.442/.682 in 44 double-A at-bats with Baltimore. Overall, he’s hitting .304/.393/.519 with 15 homers and 32 doubles in 378 at-bats. Bell is also showing a solid approach at the plate with respectable strikeout and walk rates.

Michael Taylor: The Philadelphia organization is probably pretty happy with the way the trade deadline turned out. The club received veteran Cliff Lee in a trade and he’s been lights-out in the National League. The club also managed to hang on to most – if not all – its top prospects. One of those prospects – Taylor – has shown the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level once a spot opens up for him in the outfield. After hitting .333/.408/.569 in 318 double-A at-bats, Taylor moved up to triple-A where he is hitting .282/.359/.491 in 110 at-bats. Overall, he has 20 homers and 21 steals, as well as a strikeout rate below 20 K%, which is excellent for a hitter with 20-25 home run potential.

Lucas May: With some questions surrounding Russell Martin (especially concerning his lack of power), the incumbent No. 1 catcher in Los Angeles, the Dodgers organization may need to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Having basically given catching prospect Carlos Santana away to the Indians (a terrible decision, even at the time), the club must hope that May can continue to build off of his 2009 season – a year in which the 24-year-old catcher repeated double-A with respectable results. The right-handed hitter is currently batting .281/.374/.427 with six homers in 199 at-bats. May was converted to catcher in 2007 and he’s still a little rough around the edges defensively, but he’s the best in-house option that the club has at double-A or triple-A.

Danny Dorn: Cincinnati outfield prospects like Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey get a lot of ink, but Dorn has quietly put together a respectable pro career. A former 32nd-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006 as a senior, the left-handed hitter slugged 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008. His power numbers have been muted a bit in triple-A Louisville this season (His ISO is still .184), but Dorn still has the potential to provide some pop off of a big-league bench. A poor defensive player, Dorn could also be a valuable platoon player in the American League as a designated hitter. He has hit just .197/.239/.394 against southpaws in his career, but he has a line of .293/.358/.475 against right-handers.

Neil Walker: It’s hard to believe that Walker was once the pride of Pittsburgh. A native of Pennsylvania, the former catcher was drafted with the club’s first-round pick in 2004 out of an area high school. Things really began to go downhill for Walker when he was unable to stick at catcher and moved to third base, where he provides below-average offense for the position. He’s been unable to maintain a respectable average or show the patience at the plate necessary to succeed in triple-A, let alone the Majors. Currently, he’s hitting .256/.306/.472 with 12 homers in 309 at-bats. Still only 23, a change of scenery may be the best thing for this former top prospect.

Jose Vallejo: Rumored to be headed to Houston as part of the loot in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, this Rangers second base prospect is having an off season. After hitting .292 with 11 homers and 42 steals in 2008, Vallejo has slumped to .245/.290/.316 with just two homers and 10 stolen bases in 392 at-bats split between double-A and triple-A. Fortunately, he’s still just 22 years old and is a solid buy-low risk, especially for an organization that is attempting to rebuild its farm system from virtually nothing.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Wes Hodges: A former second round pick out of Georgia Tech, Hodges is knocking on the door for a shot at the third base job in Cleveland. He is currently hitting .264/.308/.416 with 20 doubles and five homers in 231 at-bats. Hodges, 24, has struggled with his batting average a bit this season, but he should be able to maintain a .270-.290 average in the Majors with average to slight-below average power for the hot corner. He performs equally well against right-handed and left-handed pitchers in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, although his slugging percentage is almost .100 points higher against right-handers.

Mike Stanton: Stanton’s double-A numbers are not overly exciting but he’s just 19 years of age. The powerful, young outfielder hit .294/.390/.578 with 12 homers in 180 at-bats prior to his promotion from high-A ball to double-A. At the senior level, Stanton is hitting .239/.317/.468 with 12 homers in 222 at-bats. Last season, he hit 39 homers as a 19 year old. His power is off the charts, but he needs to trim his strikeout rates, which currently sit at 33.3 K%. He may also be pressing to drive in runs with a .259 batting average with the bases empty and a .183 average with runners in scoring position. Stanton will no doubt return to double-A in 2010 but, if everything clicks, he could be in Florida by mid-season.

Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez got off to a slow start in his first pro season, but he’s picked things up since being promoted to double-A. The third baseman is hitting almost .100 points higher despite playing at a more difficult level. He may be the type of player that needs to be challenged. Alvarez, 22, is currently hitting .327/.395/.558 with eight homers in 156 double-A at-bats. His numbers have been helped by an extremely high BABIP at .413 and his walk rate (10.9 BB%) is down three percent from high-A ball. His strikeout rate is almost identical at 28.2 K%. Alvarez does have a healthy line-drive rate at 20.7%. The power is legit, but at this point he’s probably a .250-.260 hitter in the Majors.

Adam Moore: The trade of Jeff Clement to Pittsburgh opens the door to the full-time catching gig once Seattle tires of Kenji Johjima behind the dish. Rob Johnson has an early lead on the job thanks to his current presence in the Majors and solid defensive work, but Moore is the superior hitter. The right-handed hitter opened the season in double-A but moved up to triple-A after just 27 games. At triple-A, Moore is currently hitting .298/.347/.419 with six homers in 265 at-bats. His walk rate is at its lowest point in three seasons at 6.7 BB%, but so is his strikeout rate at 15.1 K%. The 25-year-old has the potential to hit 15-20 homers in the Majors and he performs well against southpaws (.329/.372/.466 in ’09).

Allen Craig: The former eighth-round pick out of the University of California (2006) has been spending more time in the outfield and could see significant playing time for the Cardinals in 2010 if Matt Holliday does not resign with the club. Craig can also play first base and third base, so his versatility adds to his value. The 25-year-old is currently hitting .312/.368/.534 with 21 homers in 382 at-bats at triple-A. He’s hit 20 homers-plus and batted more than .300 in three straight seasons. Craig has a walk rate of 7.5 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.9 K%. He’s an underrated prospect with a real chance to help St. Louis in 2010.

Angel Salome: Milwaukee recently purged a number of under-performing veterans and catcher Jason Kendall could be on the way out of town after the season ends. Salome is a step down defensive, especially when you consider Kendall’s leadership and game-calling skills, but the prospect has a much better bat. The right-handed hitter is a legitimate .280-.300 hitter with excellent contact skills. He’ll probably never hit for power in the Majors with his line drive swing and 5’7” stature. Durability could also be an issue with the young catcher. This season in triple-A, Salome is hitting .289/.338/.418. He has a walk rate of 7.3 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.3 K%.

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

When the season is over and people start producing Top Prospect rankings, Ike Davis will likely be in the middle of a top 100 list. That is not surprising for someone of his pedigree, a first-round pick in 2008, but it is nothing short of remarkable considering the start that Davis got off to in his professional debut.

On April 28th, of this season, Davis hit the first home run of his pro career. Up until that point he had been considered a bust. The Mets’ top draft pick last year, part of their reward for the Braves signing free agent Tom Glavine, they selected Davis for his power. Unfortunately, he went all 58 games he played last year and then 17 more in 2009 without putting a ball over the fence.

The lack of power was disturbing but the Mets remained bullish on Davis, no one more so than former Vice President of Player Development Tony Bernazard, who told Baseball America, “He’s coming along well for a player in his first full year. He’s a great defender and we believe he’ll hit for power. You can see it in how he’s hit a lot of doubles. And the best part is, he’s kept up while playing in every game.”

Starting on April 29th, Davis has hit 15 HR in 79 games. He started the year at St. Lucie in the Hi-A Florida State League and was promoted to Double-A (where you really want to see a collegiate first-round pick in his first full season in the minors) after he posted a .288/.376/.486 line in 59 games.

Facing more advanced pitching has not slowed Davis down any. After 40 games in the Double-A Eastern League, Davis has a .299/.379/.519 mark, with 8 HR in 154 at-bats. However, here we must remember park and league tendencies.

The Florida State League is a pitcher-friendly loop. Currently Chris Parmelee leads the league with 14 HR and Dominic Brown’s .517 is the top slugging mark. In the Eastern League Brennan Boesch has 24 HR and Brian Dopirak leads with a .576 slugging percentage. Furthermore, Binghamton is a good hitter’s park. From 2006-2008, Dan Szymborski had Binghamton with a 1.05 HR multiplier. Szymborski says, “when I use the term ‘multiplier’ I’m already taking into account road games, so the number does not have to sent hurdling halfway to 1.00 in order to apply to various minor league stats.”

Davis is playing better at his home park, but not to an alarming degree. Here are his home/road splits:

H – .308/.386/.538 with 4 HR in 78 ABs
R – .289/.372/.500 with 4 HR in 76 ABs

The lefty-swinging Davis does have a significant left/right split. This year at Binghamton it breaks down as follows:

LHP – .241/.317/.296 in 54 ABs
RHP – .330/.412/.640 in 100 ABs

Additionally, all eight of his HR have come versus RHP.

Davis also has both a high K% and an elevated BABIP. His 30.1 K percentage ranks 14th among all Eastern League players with at least 100 ABs and his .383 BABIP ranks eighth.

But after he put up a .652 OPS in rookie ball, these are welcome concerns. Coming into the year, Davis could not crack Baseball America’s Top 10 prospect list for the Mets (interestingly compiled by Adam Rubin), finishing behind Eddie Kunz, whose upside is seventh-inning set-up man. It was a scathing indictment of Davis’ pro debut.

But in a season where everything has gone wrong on the major league level, the Mets can at least take solace in the development of Davis. The 22-year old now has to be considered as a potential replacement for Carlos Delgado at first base, giving hope that the club can avoid the free agent route when they opt to replace their aging slugger.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Desmond Jennings: When a left shoulder injury wiped out most of Jennings’ 2007 season, it stood to reason that the talented outfielder’s timetable would get pushed back. However, no one told Jennings. The 22-year-old picked up right where he left off in 2007. In fact, his two triple-slash lines are almost eerily similar to this point:

.315/.401/.465 (in 387 at-bats at high-A in 2007)
.316/.395/.486 (in 383 at-bats at double-A in 2009)

Even Jennings’ walk rates and strikeout rates are similar. His wOBA, though, has improved from .399 to .415. With 100 games under his belt in double-A, Rays management recently promoted Jennings to triple-A. In four games, he’s hitting .250 with a double, four Ks and a couple of stolen bases. Defensively, the center fielder has good range and an average arm. He may get a taste of the Majors this September and Jennings should be ready to contribute on a regular basis by mid-2010. That would give the Rays an incredibly athletic outfield with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton already on hand.

Jose Tabata: Like Jennings, this former Yankees’ prospect has also benefited from a recent promotion to triple-A. Tabata battled injuries (and the tabloids, thanks to his wife) early on in the season before establishing himself at double-A with a line of .303/.370/.404 with two homers and seven steals (in 13 attempts) in 228 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has yet to show the power expected of him but he’s hitting for average and controlling the strike zone well (11 K%). At only 20 years of age, Tabata has time to learn to drive the ball over the fences with more regularity. Defensively, he is a good center fielder, but he won’t move Andrew McCutchen out of position in Pittsburgh. As a result, Tabata will probably end up in right field, thanks to his strong arm. When that happens, though, his lack of power will become even more evident.

Ian Desmond: We’ve been hearing hype on Desmond for a while now but the slick fielder is just beginning to justify that talk with his performance at the plate. After struggling to hit for average early in his career, the 23-year-old prospect his .306/.372/.494 with six homers and 13 steals in 170 at-bats in double-A. Desmond still needs to show a little more patience at the plate with a walk rate of just 8.6 BB%. Another word of warning: Desmond’s BABIP is much higher this season over his career norm. In two previous stints in double-A, his BABIPs were .256 and .296. This year it was .371. His offensive showing in double-A was good enough to get him promoted to triple-A where he is currently hitting .298/.420/.351 through 18 games. With the club having given a two-year extension through 2010 to incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, it buys Desmond a little more time to hone his batting skills in triple-A next year. However, an injury to Guzman (or perhaps a trade to free up his $8 million salary) could get Desmond to Washington by the end of July next year.

Jason Castro: The Astros organization has slowly been benefiting from its minor league system over the past few seasons and it has enjoyed contributions from players such as Hunter Pence and Bud Norris. Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

Jake Arrieta: With fellow pitching prospects Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman having recently arrived in the Majors, Arrieta is now waiting for his shot in Baltimore. The right-hander’s ceiling is not quite as high as the other two pitchers but he should slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation very nicely. Arrieta, 23, began the year in double-A where he allowed 45 hits in 59 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 10.68 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Arrieta has struggled a bit with 56 hits allowed in 51.2 innings. He’s posted a walk rate of 3.14 and a strikeout rate of 8.54 K/9. The right-hander has also allowed almost twice as many home runs but in eight fewer innings. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup.

Andrew Cashner: After having success in the bullpen in college, Cashner rose into the first round of the draft in 2008, which is where the Cubs organization nabbed him. He was moved into the starting rotation in pro ball to get more innings under his belt and he may end up sticking as a starter. Cashner began the year in high-A where he allowed 31 hits in 42 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. With a promotion to double-A, the right-hander has allowed just 14 hits in 24.2 innings. His rates have remained almost exactly the same. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just one homer allowed on the year. The Cubs rotation does not look as formidable as it once did so Cashner could help out sooner rather than later. With any luck, though, the organization will avoid bouncing him back and forth between the rotation and the ‘pen, which it did with Jeff Samardzija (with limited success). Cashner’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph (more often out of the ‘pen), a plus slider, and a changeup.