On Wednesday, I dove into the recently published Bill James projections and examined how they compared with the actual performances of some of this past season’s biggest surprises on the hitting side. Today I check into some of the most surprising starting pitchers of the year.
One of the most exciting times of the off-season is when the first projection set is released. We now have the Bill James system on the player pages for our analyzational (I like making up words) pleasure. One of the most difficult things us fantasy owners have to figure out every year is what to expect from the past season’s biggest surprises. So, let’s take a look at four of this year’s most surprising hitters, both on the positive side and the negative side, and examine each of their early projections.
Just a few days ago, the Bill James Handbook Projections were added to each of the player pages. Today, I will look at the top projected fantasy hitters going into the 2013 season.
On Saturday night, the Marlins followed up their latest salary dump by welcoming back Juan Pierre. With Logan Morrison expected to become the team’s starting first baseman, assuming he’s not traded as well, Pierre should see everyday at-bats in left field. With every other lead-off option now gone, Pierre will likely hit atop the lineup on a regular basis.
So as you all no doubt know by now, Josh Johnson was part of the trade of fantasy baseball proportions that is expected to be finalized at some point today. It’s time for JJ to start trading in his dollars for loonies and toonies and switch sides when debating whether to blame Canada. Let’s figure out how the move to the American League and now calling the Rogers Centre home will affect Johnson’s performance.
Remember the excitement over Matt Wieters‘ debut only several years ago? The hype was so over the top, an entire website was created to list all of his “accomplishments” and “facts”. Now having logged 2,031 plate appearances with just a .327 career wOBA, it’s fair to say that Wieters has been a disappointment to many so far. He was also one for fantasy owners this season who hoped for that big breakout finally, but he earned just $10, ranking him 8th among catchers. Is this it or is the big breakout finally coming next season?
As we sift through Zach Sanders’ end of season catcher valuations, we find a surprising name sitting at number five, having earned $12 (would be more in two catcher leagues). Well, not surprising given that we know how he performed, but surprising in that we didn’t even rank him as part of our consensus during the pre-season. Ramon Hernandez was supposed to receive the bulk of the backstop playing time for the Rockies, but he suffered a hand injury in late May that opened the door for rookie Wilin Rosario. When Hernandez finally returned, Rosario had already run away with the job.
The Arizona Fall League as long been considered prospect finishing school. Most recently uber-talented youngsters Mike Trout and Bryce Harper decimated the pitching-light league prior to ascending to Triple-A and then the Major Leagues. But the 2012 crop in Arizona doesn’t feel as talented as previous years had. Is the talent level in the league dropping?
No, I’m not alluding to Alexander the Great or commenting on Chris Young’s agility, which I’m sure he possesses boatloads of. Back on October 20, Young came to the Beane, as he was traded to Oakland to give them their bajillionth outfielder. Without even looking at numbers, we could be pretty sure that all else equal, Young’s performance will suffer moving into spacious O.co Coliseum (can I officially nominate this as the worst name for an MLB park? thanks). But of course, this is FanGraphs, and we’re all about our calculators and slide rules, so let’s see exactly how his production may be affected.
Who was one of the most surprising shortstops this season? Your fourth ranked Nationals breakout star Ian Desmond, who earned $19 this season. Obviously, no one saw this coming. The RotoGraphs consensus ranked him just 15th at the position, and no one was more optimstic than Jeff Zimmerman at 14, whose ranking was based on ZiPS projections. If it weren’t for a torn oblique injury that forced him to miss nearly a month of the season, his counting stats, and resulting ranking, would have been even better. So has he established a new level of skill, or was this just a typical career year ripe for regression?
