Archive for Projections

Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 12, 2025

Allan Henry-Imagn Images

There aren’t many big changes since our first iteration of this series, but knowing that it’s draft time, I’ll be keeping you posted on hitters every other day until the season starts! Here’s the playing time swings of at least 70 plate appearances since Monday.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Greg Jewett

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section

  • Closer Landscape
  • Closer Strategy
    • Should you invest in an elite closer?
    • Is it viable to draft two top-10 closers?
  • Would you rather?
  • Breakout relievers

Closer Situations

  • Free Agents
  • American League
  • National League

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

 

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 11, 2025

Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

Following up on yesterday’s post going over position player playing time changes, we now turn our attention to the pitchers. Unlike hitters, where all playing time is shown in plate appearances, we’re splitting into two tables here. Starters are shown with games started, and relievers are shown with relief innings. When looking at our projections on a player page, you’ll notice that for all relievers, innings and games pitched are the same; that’s just how our projection system works to allocate reliever innings. I’d pay more attention to the innings, since the projected games pitched number will often be higher than the actually-expected number simply to inflate a pitcher’s innings to what we feel is accurate.

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 10, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Hi everyone, and welcome to the first iteration of Position Player Playing Time Changes! Since this is the first one of these, I wanted to lay out my process here with Opening Day fast approaching.

Our Depth Charts projections are extremely fluid, and RosterResource guru Jason Martinez makes many tweaks and larger changes every day. Knowing that, we found it prudent to provide a snapshot of the recent changes, looking at the last week. All we’re doing is pulling projected plate appearances for March 3, and comparing those to March 10.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Mixed LABR Auction Recap Episode w/ Justin Mason

The Mixed LABR Auction Recap episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

TGFBI

  • What is TGFBI?
  • How did TGFBI get started?
  • First few rounds of TGFBI 2025

Mixed LABR Auction

  • General Auction Strategy
  • Incoming plan
  • Observations
    • Positional Observations
    • Categorical Observations
    • Auction Temperature
  • What we liked / disaliked about our auction
  • Live vs. online auctions
  • Auction Board:

Injury Update

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode w/ Joe Pisapia

The Mock Draft episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Joe Pisapia

Strategy Section

  • What are you looking to accomplish in drafts?
  • KDS Selection
  • Lessons learned so far

Mock Draft

  • 14 Team – Mixed 5×5 – 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, U, 9P

By Round

By Team

  • Tanner Scott vs. Kirby Yates
    • Board bet !

Mock Draft Recap

  • Favorite & least favorite picks

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode w/ Nick Pollack – Part II

The Starting Pitcher episode – Part II – of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

ATC Undervalued Players

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Overvalued Pitchers

Injury Update

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode w/ Nick Pollack – Part I

The Starting Pitcher episode – Part I – of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

FSWA Nomination

Strategy Section

  • Valuing Pitcher Changes
    • Working on a new pitch
    • Pitch mix
    • Arm angle
    • Relief pitcher turned starter
  • Spring training
    • What to look for?
    • Who to look for?
  • Starting pitcher strategy
    • Do you emphaisze drafting pitchers with high innings pitched per start?
    • What to do with the Los Angeles Dodgers?
    • Which should you emphasize earlier on in drafts – strikeouts or ratios?

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Outfield & THE BAT Episode w/ Derek Carty

The Outfield & THE BAT episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

THE BAT Projections

  • Projections accuracy contest on FantasyPros
    • What is the best way to test projections accuracy?
  • What are the key components of a projection system?
  • What is the difference between THE BAT & THE BAT X?
  • THE BAT methodolgy
    • Details on weighting of years
    • Runs & RBI
    • Stolen bases
    • Accounting for park factors for new stadium dimensions

Strategy Section

  • Positional Eligibilty
    • Which is more valuable for 2025 – 2B, 3B or OF?
    • The value of multi-position eligible players
  • Outfield strategy
    • Player pool
    • Should you draft an elite outfielder?
    • Are there certain statistics that you should acquire from your outfielders?

ATC Undervalued Players

Injury Update

 

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New Parks & Dimensions Projection Adjustments: Home Runs

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The smiles appear before the response.

Ask a few Orioles hitters for their immediate reactions to news that the club is moving in the left field wall, and their approval can be seen on their faces.

The above quote came from the Orioles caravan and got me thinking about how projections incorporate three new park changes.

I’ve seen the park changes referenced in articles and pods for reasons to fade or target certain players. I lean on projections and assume that they incorporate dimensions into account when they create their projections. If the changes are already accounted for, I don’t want to overrate affected players. After looking over various projections, most seem to take the changes into account, but some haven’t yet. Read the rest of this entry »