Over the past few days something very odd has happened in baseball. Somehow, some way, Zack Cozart has become the active fWAR leader. Okay, this may not be as big a surprise this afternoon as it may have been when you first heard about this, but it is still pretty crazy, right? Or maybe you saw him sneaking up the leaderboards over the past few days or weeks. Either way, it has happened. He’s now number one amongst the active players, and perhaps he’ll soon overtake Trout for first amongst all players.

In terms of fantasy, WAR doesn’t carry much weight, of course. Especially for a guy like Cozart who generates a solid chunk of his value through defensive excellence. Even still, Cozart is posting numbers at a rate that far exceeds his career numbers. He currently stands with a .351 batting average and a 1.059 OPS, up from his career .254 average and .704 OPS.

Zack Cozart has below average exit velocity, only 84 mph. We’re not talking a touch below average, either, he’s more than a full standard deviation below with a z-score of -1.37. All this made me curious about where exactly he sat on the exit velocity spectrum, whether there are other similar outliers, and if there is anything we can learn from them. Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, Alan Nathan wrote an article for The Hardball Times about the humidor’s potential impact on exit velocity in Chase Field.  He referenced a physics model that estimates a 3.8 mile per hour drop in exit velocity. He also showed that over the past two seasons the Diamondbacks Exit Velocity is 2 miles per hour higher in home games when compared to away games. I encourage you to read the whole article prior to reading what I have produced here today, as I will be building upon what he wrote. Read the rest of this entry »

Alas, it’s finally time to wrap up the Pod vs Steamer Projections series, which pitted my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in several fantasy categories, discussing which players I’m significantly more bullish and bearish on. Last week, I identified 13 pitchers I was far more bullish on than Steamer for ERA. In doing this exercise, I realized I was actually forecasting lower ERAs for the majority of the pitchers we both projected. So now turning to the pitchers I forecasted a higher ERA for, there was literally only 21 to choose from, most of which were within 0.10 runs of each other, which is, like, nothing. But here are seven fantasy relevant pitchers I’m a bit more bearish on than Steamer.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Who was the most surprising starting pitcher in fantasy baseball last year? The answer might just be Kyle Hendricks. We ranked him 54th among starters heading into the season and he ended up earning $29.10, fourth most among starters at the end of the year. Oh, and he finished third in the Cy Young award voting. He also posted a suppressed .250 BABIP, a LOB% above 80%, and outperformed his SIERA by the widest margin among all qualified starters. So obviously, the knee-jerk reaction would be to figure some severe regression this season. Right? Let’s find out.

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We’re winding down our comparison of the Pod Projections and Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. What do we care about most? ERA, of course. So we’ll begin by checking in on a smattering of fantasy relevant hurlers in which I’m forecasting a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Interestingly, it appears that I’m simply far more bullish than Steamer in general, as I’m forecasting a lower ERA for 141 of the 161 starters that I project! That’s pretty crazy.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl
Keon Broxton

Last night, I needed some inspiration. Who would be tomorrow’s Pod Projection? So I asked my Twitter followers and received a slew of options. Ultimately, I landed on a player I never considered for this honor and was “voted” on by just one tweeter. Trea Turner was so good last season over just 324 plate appearances that he finished 12th in value among second basemen. He essentially matched Ben Zobrist’s value in only about half the plate appearances!

And while we throw the term sample size around all the time and stress the importance of concepts like regression, fantasy owners are closing their ears and yelling lalalalala, because they love their Trea and there’s nothing you could do about it. He’s being selected 10th overall on average in NFBC drafts and has even apparently gone first overall, while he also holds an ADP of 13.5 in Fantrax drafts. Are fantasy owners nuts or is this not a repeat case of Carlos Correa and overvaluing a small sample?

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After a short break to tend to family matters, let’s return to the comparison of my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts. A week ago, I identified six hitters I was more bullish on for stolen bases, so today, I’ll discuss the hitters I’m more bearish on. To ensure we’re comparing apples to apples, I extrapolated Steamer’s stolen base projections to the same number of plate appearances I’m forecasting for each player.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl

Who would make for the perfect hitter to be Pod Projected? The one with the biggest difference between the Fans and Depth Chart projections, of course!

Biggest diff between fans & depth charts:
1) Broxton
2) CSeager
3) TimA
4) Drury
5) CHernandez
6) Yoan
7) Eaton
8) GaryS
9) Bryant
10) Votto

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) February 28, 2017

The Fans projections are notoriously bullish, but sometimes they rightly believe in a breakout, whereas the projection systems are programmed to forecast severe regression. Keon Broxton is no Spring chicken and is already 26 heading into the 2017 season. But he got his first chance to play regularly last season and made the most of it by posting a .343 wOBA, displaying both power and speed, excellent plate patience, and playing fabulous defense. Naturally, everyone is skeptical, though the Fans are far less so than Steamer and ZiPS. What about the Pod Projections, you ask? Let’s find out!

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Today, I continue the comparison of my Pod Projections to Steamer in various fantasy categories, this time identifying players I believe have stolen base upside. My stolen base projections are calculated using a proprietary metric I developed that is revealed in Projecting X 2.0. Essentially, it’s a stolen base attempts per opportunities ratio and I use historical rates to guide my projected rate.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers

Today, I’ll dive into the first hitter to receive the exciting 2017 Pod Projection treatment. David Dahl thrilled us during his debut last year, showing power (.185 ISO), speed (7.7 Spd score, five steals), and batting average ability (.315). That’s literally everything we want as fantasy owners. Of course, let’s not ignore the fact that he required an absurd .404 BABIP to reach that impressive batting average mark. That said, he plays half his games at Coors Field, so perhaps his average has some staying power. Early 2017 NFBC drafters are already falling over each other to roster him, selecting him as the 22nd outfielder off the board (just before Matt Kemp, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones), and 91st overall. WOWZERS! That’s some serious love.

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