Although the year just flipped to 2021, it’s already Pod Projections time! The 2021 forecasts are not available yet, and it’s looking likely that I’ll have more time to finish them once again, just like last year. So consider this an early preview to whet your appetite, for a hopefully longer season than in 2020, even if we don’t return to a 162 game schedule. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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Let’s dive into another Pod Projection! As a reminder, the 2020 forecasts are available now and include over 500 player lines. The projections follow the same process that resulted in the most accurate non-aggregate system of 2019 as calculated by FantasyPros.

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Let’s dive into another Pod Projection! As a reminder, the 2020 forecasts are available now and include over 500 player lines. The projections follow the same process that resulted in the most accurate non-aggregate system of 2019 as calculated by FantasyPros.

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Last Thursday, I identified and discussed six starting pitchers that my Pod Projections forecasted a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Now let’s turn to the starting pitchers my projections are forecasting a significantly worse ERA than Steamer. It is important to note that I’m clearly projecting a better run environment than Steamer, so there are far fewer pitchers I’m projecting a worse ERA for.

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Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer in the stolen base category and identified and discussed five hitters with upside. Today, I’ll flip to the hitters I have forecasted for a lower rate of stolen bases than Steamer. I’ll stick to only including players projected for a reasonable number of plate appearances.

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Last week, I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer and calculated which hitters I was more bullish on and more bearish on for home runs. Today, I’ll do the same for stolen bases. Similarly to homers, I’m going to calculate a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolate that projection over 650 plate appearances so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in.

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Every year, I pit my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer. Many of these players figure to be part-timers, so consider them sleepers in deeper leagues.

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The Pod Projection process sharing continues! The 2020 forecasts are now available and include over 500 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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Finally, it’s Pod Projections time! The 2020 forecasts are now available and include over 500 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I finish my comparison of Pod ERA projections vs Steamer with the downside guys. Given that league ERA was at its highest since 2006, this should be an easy win for Pod. But, I only listed and discussed four pitchers, probably because on the whole, Pod was more bullish on ERA than Steamer was (oops), so there were fewer pitchers I was projecting for a significantly worse ERA. Let’s see how the for performed.

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