2020 Pod Projections: Eduardo Rodriguez

Let’s dive into another Pod Projection! As a reminder, the 2020 forecasts are available now and include over 500 player lines. The projections follow the same process that resulted in the most accurate non-aggregate system of 2019 as calculated by FantasyPros.

2020 Pod Projection Index:
Jonathan Villar
Mike Soroka
Yandy Diaz

It was a big year for Eduardo Rodriguez, as he eclipsed the 200 innings pitcher barrier for the first time and also struck out over 200 batters. Fantasy owners who stuck with him through his awful April were duly rewarded. Oddly, although his 3.81 ERA was only marginally below his career mark of 4.03 and nearly identical to his 2018 mark, fantasy owners don’t seem to know how to value him heading into 2020.

His NFBC ADP in March drafts stands at about 135, as he is selected 50th among pitchers (including relievers). But he has been drafted as early as 72nd and as late as 173rd! For a top 150 pick, that’s quite a spread. Let’s dive into my projection process to see if there’s some glaring reason why fantasy owners are having such a difficult time valuing him.

Games Started | IP: 30 | 173

Rodriguez made a whopping 34 starts last year, which tied for the lead in baseball. For a guy who had tallied low 20 starts for four straight seasons, this was pretty surprising. Naturally, I can’t forecast another 34 starts, so I settled on 30. I’m projecting an average of 5.8 innings per start, versus 6.0 last year. As you’ll see, I’m projecting marginally worse results, which should result in a slightly quicker hook.

K%: 24.6%

Over the last three seasons, Rodriguez’s xK% has sat between 25% and 26.5%. So he has been pretty darn consistent. His fastball velocity has been in a slight downward trend, but it hasn’t affected him much. That said, fastball velocity highly correlates with strikeout rate, so sooner or later, a dip is going to result in a loss of strikeouts, which is what I’m projecting.

BB%: 8.9%

Rodriguez has really walked the tightrope with his walk rate, as he actually throws a below average rate of strikes. While it hasn’t caught up to him yet, my xBB% equation suggests he should be walking a higher rate of batters. Perhaps he’s an inherent outperformer and he’s doing something not captured by the formula. But even if he did own such a hidden skill, I don’t know how long that would last for anyway.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 41% / 21% / 38%

Unlike the rest of the league becoming more fly ball happy, Rodriguez somehow managed to alter his batted ball tendencies and flip to a ground ball pitcher. Who knows if we’ll see the ground ball version this year, the fly ball version, or somewhere in between. I chose to go in between, because I’m boring and safe like that. Where he ends up matters as more fly balls mean more homers allowed.

HR/FB%: 13.5%

I don’t know how, but Rodriguez has managed to keep his HR/FB rate relatively stable, even in this crazy home run environment. He posted marks between 10.4% and 11.8% over the previous four seasons, which is a tight range. Last year, though, his mark jumped to a career high of 13.3%. Without knowing what he might be doing to suppress home runs on fly balls, and knowing how long it takes for HR/FB rate to stabilize, I opted to forecast another new career high, but a rate that represents only a minimal increase from 2019.

BABIP: .297

He has underperformed his Statcast xBABIP for three straight seasons now, but he did so by the greatest degree in 2019. That means that even if his BABIP doesn’t decline all the way to his xBABIP, it should still improve significantly. I’m projecting just that — an improvement to just below his career mark, but not all the way down to his xBABIP.

Below is my final projected pitching line, along with the other systems for comparison:

Projection Comparison
System IP W ERA WHIP K K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB% LD% GB% FB% BABIP LOB%
Pod 173 12 4.05 1.31 180 9.4 3.4 1.27 24.6% 8.9% 21.0% 41.0% 38.0% 0.297 73.9%
THE BAT 201 14 3.80 1.24 209 9.4 3.2 1.17 0.300 73.9%
ATC 187 14 3.94 1.30 196 9.4 3.2 1.20 0.313 74.0%
Depth Charts 201 14 4.23 1.32 208 9.3 3.3 1.25 0.313 72.5%
Steamer 193 13 4.17 1.31 202 9.4 3.3 1.31 24.5% 8.6% 21.2% 42.0% 36.8% 0.296 73.2%
ZiPS 174.1 12 4.28 1.34 177 9.1 3.3 1.19 0.317 71.7%

That’s a pretty wide ERA range, from as low as 3.80 from THE BAT to a high of 4.28 by ZiPS. I’m right in the middle. One of the biggest differences is on the innings pitched side. I’m low man on the totem pole, though just one inning less than ZiPS. That surprises me given Rodriguez’s history of knee issues and low innings totals pre-2019.

We’re almost all in agreement on his strikeout and walk rates, but BABIP is all over the map. I’m almost identical to Steamer at below .300, while ZiPS is at a high of .317, with ATC not far behind at .313. Those high projections are a surprise. Rodriguez’s career BABIP is just .299 and just once has it stood above .301 in a season, so I’m not sure why a projection system would call for another mark over .310.

So it seems pretty clear why there’s such a divide on Rodriguez’s value. If you’re using THE BAT, you’re taking him 72nd overall. If you’re using ZiPS, or even Steamer, you’re laughing at such overvaluation and not considering him until after pick 150.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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LightenUpFGmember
4 years ago

If you’re a Red Sox fan, you’ll just be glad if he can throw 6 innings each time out as the de facto healthy #1. Oh the humanity.