Jayson Werth is down. Now that the surgery was ‘successful’ and they didn’t attach his kneecap to his elbow, it looks like he’ll be out twelve weeks. That means he’ll be trying to come back in August from wrist surgery similar to the one that once robbed an entire year from him. He’s droppable in most formats.

What’s left out there for those that are now less a Werth? Especially in OBP leagues, you won’t get a guy that combines the speed and power upside Werth had, but the options aren’t all worthless.

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As the first Monday in May (and every concurrent month afterwards), I bring you the updated American League outfield tiered rankings. The fluctuations here reflect the past weeks AL OF stock watches as well as what I envision as the player’s fantasy value going forward. As one may expect, previous players who I rated as being bullish have moved up, and vice versa with bearish players dropping down.

Tier One:
Curtis Granderson
Josh Hamilton

Granderson contributes significantly to every standard fantasy category. The only downside to Granderson is his mediocre average. The lack of steals so far in 2012 is more curious than worrisome at this early juncture. His ability to remain healthy and productive is the reason he is number one. Since 2006 he has only had less than 600 plate appearances in a season once, and in that year he still accrued 528 PA. The argument for Hamilton is that he has tied or superseded in Granderson in every statistic so far, including a .75 point batting average advantage. So why is Hamilton ranked #2? You should already know the answer to this: health. He has yet to go on the DL this year, but did miss a 3 game spell with back tightness. To say it another way: From 2008-2011, Hamilton has a total of 2,178 PA, or 544 PA per season while Granderson has garndered 2,558 PA for an average of 639 PA per season. Injuries are impossible to predict, but given the history of Granderson averaging ~100 more trips to the plate each season over the past four years tips the scales in his favor.

Tier Two:
Jose Bautista
Adam Jones
Desmond Jennings Read the rest of this entry »

The waiver wire is still full of quality options as we start the season’s second month. Here’s an outfielder and a bullpen arm who are likely better than someone on your roster…

Ryan Sweeney | OF | Red Sox | Owned: 11% Yahoo! and 17.2% ESPN

Just a secondary piece in the Andrew Bailey–Josh Reddick trade, Sweeney has become in an important cog in the top-heavy Red Sox offense. His .368/.398/.540 batting line is excellent but nothing something I would expect him to sustain for the next 130-something games, mostly because his .457 BABIP (!) is not built to last. Sweeney has always been a high contact/BABIP hitter however — .330 career — and he moved into a much, much more favorable home ballpark with the trade. A .450 BABIP is nuts, but a .350 BABIP is probably doable.

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With a full month of baseball in the books, you’d have to think that your league’s waiver wire has been picked clean.  However, between the recent rash of injuries and rookie call-ups, there are certainly a few names that have slipped through the cracks.  Here are two guys you might want to consider depending on the holes in your roster. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the best day of the week as we once again take a dip into the free agent pool. My goal by the end of the season is to incorporate as many puns as I can into my introduction, so feel free to offer suggestions in the comments. Today is a look at two hitters who may actually earn some mixed league value, which doesn’t happen very often when looking at the 15% owned and below.

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I liked Lucas Duda going into the season, you may have heard. Ten days ago, he had a .188/.216/.396 batting line and my twitter timeline was blown to pieces. I started planning a mea culpa and some sort of investigation into his contact problems. Good thing life got in the way — Duda’s past week cleaned up most of his peripherals in one fell swoop.

From April 21st until April 30th, Duda went 11 for 30 with a home run and a double. But the batted-ball results weren’t what provide the most hope for the rest of the season. Saying that he struck out six times against seven walks in those 37 plate appearances gets a little closer — he’d struck out 15 times against two walks in the 50 PAs that came before. But per at-bat results are still inferior to per-pitch results in the early season. Most importantly, Lucas Duda started making contact.

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Mike Trout and Bryce Harper came up this weekend. Mike Trout went oh-for-the-weekend. Bryce Harper had two hits, one a double, with an RBI to boot. Trout is on a crowded team at a crowded position. Bryce Harper plays center field for a team desperate for a center fielder. In keeper leagues, many will tell you — we’ve got all the premier scout-types on record in our FG+ article on the subject — that Harper’s power upside will be the more valuable tool going forward.

But, in redraft leagues, for just this year, I’m taking Mike Trout.

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Next Monday I will roll out the new AL OF tiers, but until then, the following are some of biggest climbers and decliners of the season to date:

Bullish:
Adam Jones – The simple truth here is that Jones just keeps making hard contact. Potential stringer issues aside, Jones currently sports his highest LD% of any qualified season. He currently has six home runs, five doubles and a triple to boot. His .338 BABIP is certainly high, but he has posted seasons of .328 and .329 in the recent past, so I’m not prepared to write off his BABIP and claim it as so called “luck.” His counting numbers for speed have been solid, but his four stolen bases don’t look quite as shiny when compared to his two caught stealing. I don’t expect him to slug .600+ for the season, but .500 certainly seems attainable. Jones has improved his strikeout rate, but his paltry walk rate drags him down a bit in OBP leagues. Eventually those lack of walks will hurt his SB and Runs chances, but that hasn’t happened yet. He’ll be up to tier 3 unless he falls off a cliff this week. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s start the week off with two players who have recently been promoted to more high-profile roles, one due to ineffectiveness and the other due to injury…

Scott Downs | RP | Angels | Owned: 41% Yahoo! and 33.0% ESPN

One of my ten bold predictions before the season said that Downs would save at least ten games for the Halos. Jordan Walden is good but shaky, and I figured that any misstep early on could result in him losing his job, even just temporarily. Mike Scioscia pulled the plug on his struggling closer after he’d blown a save against the Rays last Thursday, inserting Downs into the ninth inning role. He closed out his first game on Saturday with a perfect inning against the Indians in a one-run game.

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Bryce Harper’s debut is nigh. The Nationals will call him up Saturday and put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL. Though he wasn’t available in any of my 14 leagues, perhaps he’s available in yours. Should you pick him up?

Despite having all the pedigree in the world, the answer is unclear. He already has two things going against him before day one. He’s only 19 years old, for one. Here’s the list of 19 year olds that managed at least 200 PAs since 1980 and how they fared in their rookie seasons.

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