It’s the best day of the week as we once again take a dip into the free agent pool. My goal by the end of the season is to incorporate as many puns as I can into my introduction, so feel free to offer suggestions in the comments. Today is a look at two hitters who may actually earn some mixed league value, which doesn’t happen very often when looking at the 15% owned and below.
I liked Lucas Duda going into the season, you may have heard. Ten days ago, he had a .188/.216/.396 batting line and my twitter timeline was blown to pieces. I started planning a mea culpa and some sort of investigation into his contact problems. Good thing life got in the way — Duda’s past week cleaned up most of his peripherals in one fell swoop.
From April 21st until April 30th, Duda went 11 for 30 with a home run and a double. But the batted-ball results weren’t what provide the most hope for the rest of the season. Saying that he struck out six times against seven walks in those 37 plate appearances gets a little closer — he’d struck out 15 times against two walks in the 50 PAs that came before. But per at-bat results are still inferior to per-pitch results in the early season. Most importantly, Lucas Duda started making contact.
Mike Trout and Bryce Harper came up this weekend. Mike Trout went oh-for-the-weekend. Bryce Harper had two hits, one a double, with an RBI to boot. Trout is on a crowded team at a crowded position. Bryce Harper plays center field for a team desperate for a center fielder. In keeper leagues, many will tell you — we’ve got all the premier scout-types on record in our FG+ article on the subject — that Harper’s power upside will be the more valuable tool going forward.
But, in redraft leagues, for just this year, I’m taking Mike Trout.
Next Monday I will roll out the new AL OF tiers, but until then, the following are some of biggest climbers and decliners of the season to date:
Bullish:
Adam Jones – The simple truth here is that Jones just keeps making hard contact. Potential stringer issues aside, Jones currently sports his highest LD% of any qualified season. He currently has six home runs, five doubles and a triple to boot. His .338 BABIP is certainly high, but he has posted seasons of .328 and .329 in the recent past, so I’m not prepared to write off his BABIP and claim it as so called “luck.” His counting numbers for speed have been solid, but his four stolen bases don’t look quite as shiny when compared to his two caught stealing. I don’t expect him to slug .600+ for the season, but .500 certainly seems attainable. Jones has improved his strikeout rate, but his paltry walk rate drags him down a bit in OBP leagues. Eventually those lack of walks will hurt his SB and Runs chances, but that hasn’t happened yet. He’ll be up to tier 3 unless he falls off a cliff this week. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s start the week off with two players who have recently been promoted to more high-profile roles, one due to ineffectiveness and the other due to injury…
Scott Downs | RP | Angels | Owned: 41% Yahoo! and 33.0% ESPN
One of my ten bold predictions before the season said that Downs would save at least ten games for the Halos. Jordan Walden is good but shaky, and I figured that any misstep early on could result in him losing his job, even just temporarily. Mike Scioscia pulled the plug on his struggling closer after he’d blown a save against the Rays last Thursday, inserting Downs into the ninth inning role. He closed out his first game on Saturday with a perfect inning against the Indians in a one-run game.
Bryce Harper’s debut is nigh. The Nationals will call him up Saturday and put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL. Though he wasn’t available in any of my 14 leagues, perhaps he’s available in yours. Should you pick him up?
Despite having all the pedigree in the world, the answer is unclear. He already has two things going against him before day one. He’s only 19 years old, for one. Here’s the list of 19 year olds that managed at least 200 PAs since 1980 and how they fared in their rookie seasons.
Here we will continue to monitor the risers and decliners of the American League outfield rankings:
Bullish:
Marlon Byrd – I’ve already waxed poetic on Byrd in a previous article, so I won’t ramble too much today. I like Byrd as someone who is CF eligible and starts for the team that has scored the 5th most runs in the AL. Byrd’s ownership rate is still just 2% in Yahoo! leagues so there is a good chance that he is available in yours. If the match up is favorable, I like Byrd for FanGraphs: The Game at home on days where you want to save a few dollars. He’s a useful ballplayer.
Yeonis Cespedes – Cespedes already has 4 dingers and is 4-4 in stolen base attempts. The 30% K-rate is something to be wary of, but he is still producing in spite of it. Per Pitch f/x, not even 45% of the pitches that Cespedes has seen has been a 4-seamer or a 2-seamer. That means that he has seen an awful lot of curves, sliders and change-ups. Cespedes does have a .357 OBP, but that includes his 3 HBP. Cespedes has only earned 7 walks for himself so far. With a swinging strike rate of 16.4%, I am tentatively pushing Cespedes up one tier. If those strikeouts get out of hand, then expect him to drop back down.
Denard Span – Although I don’t expect Span’s average to remain at .324 all season long, I do feel that he has a good chance to end with a .300+ average. He’ll never hit too many homers for you, but his runs, SB and AVG should all be above average at the end of the year. If you play in an OBP league, then Span is one of those deeply satisfying late round types. His sneaky good OBP (career .361) is great to have penciled in for 650 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »
Marlon Byrd is the word in Boston, but we know how that tune goes by now. Once the BABIP (.091) stabilizes, he’ll put together a good batting average (.278 career) with home run and stolen base numbers that shouldn’t add up to 20. The move to Fenway won’t help him hit more home runs, since the right-handed park factor for dongers in Chicago is 102 and it drops to 94 in Fenway, but that really isn’t Byrd’s game most years. Instead, look for the 132 PF for doubles from righties in Fenway to help augment their new center fielders’ batting average.
But, as usual, the more interesting situation is the one left behind on the rebuilding squad. You know what Tony Campana has coming to him? The world, Chico, and everything in it. (Or a one-month shot at staking out the center field job for himself, it could just be that.)
We’ve got a pair of AL Central outfielders on the docket today; two players who are coming off down and/or injury-hampered seasons and are poised for strong rebounds…
Alex Rios | White Sox | Owned: 46% Yahoo!
Whenever you think of Rios, you can’t help but think of his mammoth contract — owed $38 million through 2014. Thankfully his real life contract situation means nothing in fantasy. The 31-year-old had the worst season of his career in 2011, posting an unfathomably bad 59 wRC+ in 570 plate appearances. His walk rate (4.7%) was a career worst but not completely out of line with prior years (6.1% from ’08-’10), though his strike out rate (11.9%) was by the far the best of his career (16.1% from ’08-’10). The most interesting thing about Rios’ 2011 season was his batted ball profile…
Brennan Boesch started the season as a fantasy sleeper for many people. He was to bat second for the Tigers, which he has in 14 games, with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder hitting after him. He looked to be great source of Runs and maybe a bump in batting average as he would see better pitches to hit. Some people even predicted him to be a top 30 fantasy player. His season so far has been a disappointment with him hitting .213 and scoring a total of five runs. Today, I am going to look to see if he can be the fantasy player some people envisioned.
