I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.

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Freedom from shame at least. They were supposed to be bold. So let’s revisit those predictions.

[Sorry no chat today, gotta get my stuff done before heading to the city for the Bay Area meetup. And sorry for abrupt ending last week, got an important call.]

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As you’ll notice around RotoGraphs this week, many of my fine colleagues are looking back at their “10 Bold Predictions” from before the season and seeing how many of them came true. Having joined the team late, I had time to make only one prediction before the season started: “Andre Ethier Is Going To Have a Huge Season”. You can click back to that article to read the full explanation of why, but it basically came down to two reasons – first, he was finally healthy after two years of finger & knee troubles, and second, he would likely be motivated to prove his worth as he headed into his free agent year. I argued that if everything broke right, he could be a steal as a potential top-15 outfielder who was routinely going in the mid-30s in spring drafts. It didn’t quite happen; Ethier ranked outside the top-30 in most of the major ranking systems.

On the surface, Ethier’s 2012 looked a lot like his 2011, compiling a .348 wOBA as opposed to the previous year’s .343. (An increase in slugging percentage was mostly offset by a lesser OBP.) So what went wrong? For the first two months, not a whole lot, actually; like he’d done in the previous two seasons, Ethier got off to a hot start, hitting .324/.381/.569 with nine homers through the end of May. Read the rest of this entry »

Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.

We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.

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This marks the final version of the American League outfield stream edition and the AL OF rankings and updates as well. It’s been a learning experience and a pleasure. Given the seasons final three games, here are some freely available options that you may want to consider.

Trevor Plouffe – Admittedly, I have fluctuated on what I think of Plouffe an awful lot this season. I still question his talent being stretched over a full season again, but in a three game set in a very home run friendly ball park in the Rogers Centre, I like him to homer once — maybe even more than that. StatCorner has Toronto’s home park at a 119 on their right-handed HR index, making it a well above average place for power righties. Plouffe is available in 30% of Yahoo! leagues and 27% of ESPN leagues. He is healthy and playing.
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It’s time again to look ahead to the 2013 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the top potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now.

For those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2013 rookie primers are meant for players who will exhaust (or are expected to exhaust) their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Opening Day or soon thereafter. For now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the young talent at each position.

In case you need a brief example of how this sort of strategy can be worthwhile: In two deep leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, that allow for up to 10 keepers, I picked up Jarrod Parker, Addison Reed and Will Middlebrooks, as well as Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart around this time last year, keeping them all for dirt cheap. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Here are the previous position primers: Catchers, Corner Infielders, Middle Infielders

This time? Outfielders.

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After last week’s variation of the American League Outfield Rankings, I decided to write about the final eight or so games in a similar fashion. Just like last week, the following criteria are in mind:

– A sub 50% ownership rate in either Yahoo! or ESPN
– Favorable matchups, either via ballpark or opposing starting pitchers

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It’s the final full week of the regular season, which means it’s championship week for a whole lotta fantasy leagues out there. Here are two positions players — one infielder, one outfielder — who could help put you over the top…

Gordon Beckham | 2B | White Sox | Owned: 12% Yahoo!

Beckham, 26, has been a colossal disappointment since the ChiSox selected him with the eighth overall pick in 2008, producing just an 84 wRC+ in over 2,000 career plate appearances. I suppose the good news is that time is on his side though, since he (theoretically) has yet to reach his peak years.

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With just about 2 weeks left, this is your final chance to pick up some standings points and make strategic start/bench decisions based on your position in each category. If you need speed, these are your guys.

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Instead of the (somewhat) typical post of ranking and stock watch, this American League Outfield article is in regards to excellent stream candidates. The basic criteria is:

– A sub 50% ownership rate in Yahoo! or ESPN
– Favorable matchups, either via ballpark or opposing starting pitchers

Matt Joyce – Joyce has six straight games in a row against the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays. Both of those pitching staffs rank in the bottom half of away pitching FIP. The Jays are actually fifth worst, at 4.70. Following that favorable home stand, the Rays are on the road at Boston and then at the Chicago White Sox. Between the home parks and the quality of opposing pitchers, expect Joyce to have an excellent final two weeks. Joyce’s ownership rate is below 40% in Yahoo! and hovering at 43% in ESPN leagues.
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