The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.
It occurred to me while getting ready to prepare my Turtle piece — buy lows who panned out wonderfully — that I really had a pair who were virtually identical in each league. Oddly enough, it was ‘out with the old, in with the older’ as I more or less doubled down on a departed Twin — Jason Kubel — and an incoming one — Josh Willingham — as late draft power sleepers.
I think the Willingham pick was a bit more difficult to justify, though neither by themselves would be considered a ‘lock’ to produce. Willingham certainly played relatively well, hitting about half of his home runs on the road, and half at cavernous O.Co Coliseum. The 29 homers were Willingham’s largest power output home run-wise, but there was no guarantee that Target Field, which to date hadn’t been very accommodating to any sort of power hitter, would provide any sort of boost to the Hammer in his age-33 season. Read the rest of this entry »
On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.
The staff voting for the American League Fantasy Turtle was one of the most varied ballots for any award. The full award listing was described in full detail by Eno yesterday. All told, the AL Fantasy Turtle balloting was as follows:
Everything was in place for Jacoby Ellsbury to have a monster season. He was exceptional in 2011, when he hit .321/.376/.552, and finished second in the AL MVP voting. Ellsbury entered 2012 looking to turn in another solid season, and, at age 28, there was no reason to think he would experience a significant decline. While his power numbers seemed like a fluke, there were some signs that maybe Ellsbury had changed his approach, and that the power would remain.
None of those things happened. A shoulder injury put Ellsbury on the shelf early in the season. Once he returned, he hardly looked like the same player. His .271/.313/.370 slash line was pedestrian, and his power completely disappeared. Given that Ellsbury was one of the top fantasy outfielders coming into the year, his performance makes him a prime candidate for LVP.
I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.
Freedom from shame at least. They were supposed to be bold. So let’s revisit those predictions.
[Sorry no chat today, gotta get my stuff done before heading to the city for the Bay Area meetup. And sorry for abrupt ending last week, got an important call.]
As you’ll notice around RotoGraphs this week, many of my fine colleagues are looking back at their “10 Bold Predictions” from before the season and seeing how many of them came true. Having joined the team late, I had time to make only one prediction before the season started: “Andre Ethier Is Going To Have a Huge Season”. You can click back to that article to read the full explanation of why, but it basically came down to two reasons – first, he was finally healthy after two years of finger & knee troubles, and second, he would likely be motivated to prove his worth as he headed into his free agent year. I argued that if everything broke right, he could be a steal as a potential top-15 outfielder who was routinely going in the mid-30s in spring drafts. It didn’t quite happen; Ethier ranked outside the top-30 in most of the major ranking systems.
On the surface, Ethier’s 2012 looked a lot like his 2011, compiling a .348 wOBA as opposed to the previous year’s .343. (An increase in slugging percentage was mostly offset by a lesser OBP.) So what went wrong? For the first two months, not a whole lot, actually; like he’d done in the previous two seasons, Ethier got off to a hot start, hitting .324/.381/.569 with nine homers through the end of May. Read the rest of this entry »
Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.
We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.
This marks the final version of the American League outfield stream edition and the AL OF rankings and updates as well. It’s been a learning experience and a pleasure. Given the seasons final three games, here are some freely available options that you may want to consider.
Trevor Plouffe – Admittedly, I have fluctuated on what I think of Plouffe an awful lot this season. I still question his talent being stretched over a full season again, but in a three game set in a very home run friendly ball park in the Rogers Centre, I like him to homer once — maybe even more than that. StatCorner has Toronto’s home park at a 119 on their right-handed HR index, making it a well above average place for power righties. Plouffe is available in 30% of Yahoo! leagues and 27% of ESPN leagues. He is healthy and playing.
Read the rest of this entry »
