Michael Bourn is the best free-agent left on the market. The main reason Bourn is still out there has to do with the market. After the other big-name outfielders signed, there were no teams left on the market who could offer Bourn a mega-deal. The only team he’s been linked to recently is the Mets, who are only interested in adding him if MLB decides to exempt the Mets from giving up the 11 pick. But even if the Mets signed Bourn, they would want him to lower his demands. The team doesn’t want to invest a five-year deal in a player so dependent on his legs, figuring, once the speed goes, Bourn will no longer be useful. The general notion suggests that players like Bourn fall off a cliff as their speed declines. But is Bourn the exception to that line of thinking?

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In case you were trapped in a coal mine or under a rock somewhere and hadn’t heard the news, Justin Upton was traded from Arizona to the Atlanta Braves on Thursday morning. Articles and opinions have wallpapered the internet discussing things like Upton’s home/road splits, his expected performance now that he’s playing side by side with brother B.J., and where he is now ranked amongst baseball’s outfielders in both real life and in fantasy. To me, it seems redundant to perpetuate the conversation. He’s a highly-regarded player with immense talent, is just 25 years old, and is heading to a competitive organization that has shown a commitment to winning. Is he suddenly going to suck? No. So long as he stays healthy, an issue that he has dealt with in his relatively young but seemingly long career, Upton is going to continue to be a highly-regarded player with immense talent, has youth on his side, and is playing for a winning ball club. If you own him in your fantasy league, you’re psyched, and if you need reassurances and your hand held any further on the matter, consider it done. But we’ve got a bigger fish to fry here. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, the Diamondbacks finally managed to find a new home for Justin Upton, shipping him along with third baseman Chris Johnson to Atlanta for Martin Prado and four prospects. That’s a loss for AL-only fantasy players who were hoping the talented young outfielder might end up in Seattle or Texas, though he remains a must-own in all formats. (Well, most formats; if your league counts “grit”, he might be merely fodder for the waiver wire.)

While most of the attention is on Upton joining brother B.J. and incumbent Jason Heyward in what’s suddenly a star-studded Braves outfield, his former mates in Arizona suddenly find themselves with a very different squad than the one that ended last year including Upton, Johnson, & Chris Young – and a lot of questions just got answered in the desert. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the Phillies signed free agent outfielder Delmon Young to a contract usually reserved for pinch hitters and bench warmers. Most assumed that Young would play left field where he has played since 2008 when not in the DH slot. And since he sports a career .309 wOBA versus right-handers, compared to a .352 wOBA against southpaws, the second assumption was that he would be on the bad side of a platoon. Our own Dave Cameron’s crystal ball was working perfectly, however, and his analysis actually assumed that Young would be taking at-bats away from Domonic Brown, who was slated to be the starting right fielder. Later, this different assumption was confirmed, as it was reported that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Young would play right field. So let’s try to figure out what the implications are of this mess.

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David Murphy hit over .300 with double-digit power and steals last season. He’s in line for more playing time with Josh Hamilton gone. He just turned 31, so age is only a slight concern.

But David Murphy wasn’t drafted in the RotoGraphs Mock Draft. Maybe he should have been.

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For the better part of a decade, Ichiro Suzuki was one of the top outfielders in fantasy baseball despite his lack of power thanks to elite batting average and stolen base numbers. His days as an elite player seemed to come to an end two seasons ago, when he hit a meager .272 while also managing 40 steals. Last season he hit just .261 with 15 steals in 95 games with the Mariners before what was previously thought to be unthinkable happened — Ichiro was traded.

After the move to the Yankees, the now 39-year-old Ichiro hit a robust .322 with 14 steals in just 67 games. His five homers with New York — all at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium — matched his total in 2011 and were one more than his half-season in Seattle in 2012. Whether it be small sample size or the rejuvenating atmosphere of a pennant race, Ichiro started hitting like guy he was 2001-2010 as soon as he put on the pinstripes. Unfortunately that only created more uncertainty about him as a fantasy option for 2013.

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The tribe has spoken. Thanks for all the player votes you included in your comments of the first edition of this year’s Pod Projections. The winner was Mark Trumbo with 5 total votes. Clearly, many of you were wondering about his second half when he hit just .227 with 10 home runs after a scorching .306, 22 home run first half. Before I dive into my projection process though, it’s important to be aware that I don’t put much stock into first half/second half splits. They have proven to have limited predictive value, so unless it was a sign of injury or there is some clear explanation that might very well continue, I mostly ignore the splits. With that caveat out of the way, let’s get to the projections.

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Right around this time of year I start to get that anticipatory giddiness that a six-year old gets in December when he starts counting down the days to Christmas. February 12 is the first day pitchers and catchers are allowed to report for Spring Training 2013 — just 27 days away. That’s less than a month. Calm, cool and collected on the outside; I’m doing back-flips on the inside. You feeling it too?  I thought so. This is our Christmas. Read the rest of this entry »

In a bid to get out of the cellar in runs scored in the American League and team wOBA in all of baseball, the Mariners made another move to bolster their offense. This time they acquired Michael Morse, star of one of my favorite baseball plays in recent memory. Seriously, please watch this if you never have, it’s AMAZING. Anyhow, Morse leaves behind a home ballpark that had a pretty neutral reputation to one that killed right-handers. But, that ballpark is undergoing changes. Let’s see if we could possibly figure out how the switch will affect Morse.

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It’s projection time! Welcome to the first edition of the 2013 Pod Projections. Last year I started the Pod Projection series and in it, I explained the process behind my projections of the five fantasy categories for various players who were most interesting. I included an introduction that described the process in a general sense, so refresh your memory by checking it out again.

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