Coming into the 2012-13 offseason, the Seattle Mariners had one absolute mandate: improve an offense which had finished last in the American League in runs scored in each of the last four seasons. But after striking out on Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, and every other offensive free agent with a pulse (unless they become the unlikely landing spot for Michael Bourn), this is the sum total of the new bats Seattle has been able to add so far this winter: Robert Andino, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, & Kendrys Morales.

Setting aside Andino for the moment, the trio of Bay / Ibanez / Morales would have been a fantastic group to have in 2009, when all three had career years, each hitting 34 or more homers with a wOBA at .378 or higher. Unfortunately for Seattle, it’s 2013, not 2009, and all three have fallen off markedly over the last few years due to age, injury, or both. While you can make an argument for taking a chance on any of the three, compounding the situation of collecting the entire set is that designated hitter is arguably the best position for each of them. That’s going to be complicated on a Seattle roster which already has two catchers who are around more for their bats than their gloves in Jesus Montero & John Jaso, a first baseman who hits like a middle infielder in Justin Smoak, and out-of-options 1B/DH Mike Carp. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the first edition of the Pod hitter projections for the 2013 season! If you are unfamiliar with my process, you can read the introduction I published last January. As a reminder, these are not computer generated where I input the data and a spreadsheet spits out a projected batted line. I manually project every category that has fantasy relevance.

The first projection I’ll make is for Wil Myers, the top ex-Royals prospect who was recently shipped to Tampa Bay for James Shields.

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Of course Nick Swisher thinks Cleveland rocks. He just signed a four-year, $56M contract that has a fifth year vesting option that could push the total to $70M. Who wouldn’t think Cleveland rocked for that kind of dough? But obviously the real question is how Swisher will play in Cleveland and what does the move do to his fantasy value. Leaving the friendly confines and short-porch in right of Yankee Stadium doesn’t sound like a positive move, particularly when 19 of your 24 home runs comes from the left side of the plate, but in looking at his overall numbers through the years, he should be the same ol’ Swish this year. Read the rest of this entry »

This season, center field innings in Texas were primarily split between Craig Gentry and Josh Hamilton. But, Hamilton is now gone and the team has not signed a free agent to replace him in the field. They still seem to be in the market for an outfielder, but it’s conceivable they head to spring training with Gentry and Leonys Martin atop the depth chart. Assuming they find their everyday center fielder from an interal option, would either of these two be attractive fantasy targets?

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On Saturday, Cody Ross signed with the Diamondbacks, creating a crowded outfield situation in Arizona. Given that they are paying him nearly $9 million per year, it suggests that a Jason Kubel or Justin Upton trade is imminent. Sending Adam Eaton down to the minors is another option, but that seems unlikely. Assuming that Ross has a full-time job in the outfield, this is how the the switch in ball parks should affect his performance.

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So, as you know, there was a pretty interesting three-team trade made on Tuesday. Though I’m sure Dusty Baker contested, the Reds finally have a new leadoff hitter, one whose OBP doesn’t suck. Shin-Soo Choo is now a Red and will likely hit atop the order for his new team. With strong OBPs and only so-so ISO marks the last two seasons, Choo makes for a pretty perfect number one guy. Given the perception of the two parks, getting out of Cleveland and into the supposed launching pad in Cincinnati should boost his fantasy value. Let’s see if that is the case.

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While most people were wrapping up their day on Tuesday, the Indians, Reds and Diamondbacks shook up the MLB world when they finalized a three-team deal with some major parts being passed around. In a nutshell, the deal looks like this:

• Cleveland Indians receive: RHP Trevor Bauer, RHP Matt Albers, and RHP Bryan Shaw from Arizona and OF Drew Stubbs from Cincinnati
• Cincinnati Reds receive: OF Shin-Soo Choo, INF Jason Donald, and cash ($3.5 mil to offset salaries) from Cleveland
• Arizona Diamondback receive: SS Didi Gregorius from Cincinnati and LHP Tony Sipp and 1B Lars Anderson from Cleveland Read the rest of this entry »

The writing had been on the wall for some time: Denard Span was unlikely to be long for Minnesota. And while the earliest rumors — dating back some 15ish months — suggested the Twins were looking at a package of Drew Storen and Roger Bernadina, the Twins wisely waited until Span proved healthy and got a relatively good return in exchange for the talented, young, and cost-controlled centerfielder.

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2012 was not kind to Cameron Maybin owners. After a seemingly breakthrough 2011 where he stole 40 bases, scored 82 runs, and coupled those with a 0.130 ISO, he came into this season perhaps not an elite option, but one that was almost universally drafted in fantasy leagues — a center-of-the-field positional player in his age 25 season who carried nearly guaranteed stolen base numbers with fair upside in most other standard 5×5 categories. On ESPN, Maybin came off the board 33rd among outfielders in fantasy leagues; 13th among his center field brethren (the latter number being especially important for leagues that don’t use generic outfield slots). However, after an up and down 2012, Maybin only slots in 71st in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings — at $0 value, he was essentially replacement level; someone who (ignoring brand) was likely shuttled between the waiver wire and spot starts in most leagues.

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Last December, the Brewers won the posting for 30-year-old Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki. The fee going back to his Japanese team was only $2.5 million; the deal he eventually signed in January was for another $2.5 million, but spread over two years (along with a team-friendly $1.5 million option for 2014). Aoki was so lightly thought of that he wasn’t really even in competition for a starting job in a Milwaukee outfield that already featured Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez, & Corey Hart. When Eno Sarris posted our initial thoughts about him in January, the most optimistic view was mostly, “well, at least Braun’s suspension is going to open up 50 games worth of playing time.” As we of course later learned, even that didn’t happen, leaving Aoki’s situation uncertain at best.

So when we say that expectations for Aoki were low entering the season, that might even be overstating it. Fantasy players routinely ignored him in drafts, and for good reason. What was the point in bothering with a largely unknown import who was expected to get little playing time, especially after – fairly or (mostly) unfairly – the last Japanese position player, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, had flopped so spectacularly? Read the rest of this entry »