It’s projection time! Welcome to the first edition of the 2013 Pod Projections. Last year I started the Pod Projection series and in it, I explained the process behind my projections of the five fantasy categories for various players who were most interesting. I included an introduction that described the process in a general sense, so refresh your memory by checking it out again.
Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust. Read the rest of this entry »
Michael Morse has emerged as a strong offensive force for the Washington Nationals over the past two seasons. After being a part-time player for most of his career, Morse has posted a .369 wOBA since sliding into a full-time spot. With Adam LaRoche now back with the team, Morse will likely be traded. While Morse has been useful over the past two years, he’s done it with an unorthodox approach. Morse has refused to take walks. Morse is in a position to see his fantasy stock rise if he’s traded to a hitter’s park. But that might not matter if he continues to utilize the same approach at the plate.
After establishing himself as a strong fantasy performer over his first three full seasons, Matt Kemp turned on his nitro boosters and took his play to an entirely new level in 2011. That performance, which included just a home run short of 40/40, made him a top five pick in fantasy leagues last year. Unfortunately, a left hamstring strain cost him two months, but he still had himself another fantastic season while he was on the field. Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten what a full season of Kemp could provide — our own Alan Harrison took him fifth overall in the early RotoGraphs mock draft, but he wasn’t the only one to select Kemp among the top 10 players in recent mocks. He went sixth and seventh in two other industry mocks and sports an ADP of six on Mock Draft Central. But, are fantasy owners forgetting a key issue?
The text came in on January 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM.
“Happy New Year! Michael Bourn in the 4th round? Dubious.”
“Happy New Year! Last of the true burners. Still a good value in roto-based leagues,” I responded.
“Juan Pierre in Round 20,” was what followed. Read the rest of this entry »
Coming into the 2012-13 offseason, the Seattle Mariners had one absolute mandate: improve an offense which had finished last in the American League in runs scored in each of the last four seasons. But after striking out on Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, and every other offensive free agent with a pulse (unless they become the unlikely landing spot for Michael Bourn), this is the sum total of the new bats Seattle has been able to add so far this winter: Robert Andino, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, & Kendrys Morales.
Setting aside Andino for the moment, the trio of Bay / Ibanez / Morales would have been a fantastic group to have in 2009, when all three had career years, each hitting 34 or more homers with a wOBA at .378 or higher. Unfortunately for Seattle, it’s 2013, not 2009, and all three have fallen off markedly over the last few years due to age, injury, or both. While you can make an argument for taking a chance on any of the three, compounding the situation of collecting the entire set is that designated hitter is arguably the best position for each of them. That’s going to be complicated on a Seattle roster which already has two catchers who are around more for their bats than their gloves in Jesus Montero & John Jaso, a first baseman who hits like a middle infielder in Justin Smoak, and out-of-options 1B/DH Mike Carp. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the first edition of the Pod hitter projections for the 2013 season! If you are unfamiliar with my process, you can read the introduction I published last January. As a reminder, these are not computer generated where I input the data and a spreadsheet spits out a projected batted line. I manually project every category that has fantasy relevance.
The first projection I’ll make is for Wil Myers, the top ex-Royals prospect who was recently shipped to Tampa Bay for James Shields.
Of course Nick Swisher thinks Cleveland rocks. He just signed a four-year, $56M contract that has a fifth year vesting option that could push the total to $70M. Who wouldn’t think Cleveland rocked for that kind of dough? But obviously the real question is how Swisher will play in Cleveland and what does the move do to his fantasy value. Leaving the friendly confines and short-porch in right of Yankee Stadium doesn’t sound like a positive move, particularly when 19 of your 24 home runs comes from the left side of the plate, but in looking at his overall numbers through the years, he should be the same ol’ Swish this year. Read the rest of this entry »
This season, center field innings in Texas were primarily split between Craig Gentry and Josh Hamilton. But, Hamilton is now gone and the team has not signed a free agent to replace him in the field. They still seem to be in the market for an outfielder, but it’s conceivable they head to spring training with Gentry and Leonys Martin atop the depth chart. Assuming they find their everyday center fielder from an interal option, would either of these two be attractive fantasy targets?
On Saturday, Cody Ross signed with the Diamondbacks, creating a crowded outfield situation in Arizona. Given that they are paying him nearly $9 million per year, it suggests that a Jason Kubel or Justin Upton trade is imminent. Sending Adam Eaton down to the minors is another option, but that seems unlikely. Assuming that Ross has a full-time job in the outfield, this is how the the switch in ball parks should affect his performance.
