David Murphy hit over .300 with double-digit power and steals last season. He’s in line for more playing time with Josh Hamilton gone. He just turned 31, so age is only a slight concern.
But David Murphy wasn’t drafted in the RotoGraphs Mock Draft. Maybe he should have been.
For the better part of a decade, Ichiro Suzuki was one of the top outfielders in fantasy baseball despite his lack of power thanks to elite batting average and stolen base numbers. His days as an elite player seemed to come to an end two seasons ago, when he hit a meager .272 while also managing 40 steals. Last season he hit just .261 with 15 steals in 95 games with the Mariners before what was previously thought to be unthinkable happened — Ichiro was traded.
After the move to the Yankees, the now 39-year-old Ichiro hit a robust .322 with 14 steals in just 67 games. His five homers with New York — all at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium — matched his total in 2011 and were one more than his half-season in Seattle in 2012. Whether it be small sample size or the rejuvenating atmosphere of a pennant race, Ichiro started hitting like guy he was 2001-2010 as soon as he put on the pinstripes. Unfortunately that only created more uncertainty about him as a fantasy option for 2013.
The tribe has spoken. Thanks for all the player votes you included in your comments of the first edition of this year’s Pod Projections. The winner was Mark Trumbo with 5 total votes. Clearly, many of you were wondering about his second half when he hit just .227 with 10 home runs after a scorching .306, 22 home run first half. Before I dive into my projection process though, it’s important to be aware that I don’t put much stock into first half/second half splits. They have proven to have limited predictive value, so unless it was a sign of injury or there is some clear explanation that might very well continue, I mostly ignore the splits. With that caveat out of the way, let’s get to the projections.
Right around this time of year I start to get that anticipatory giddiness that a six-year old gets in December when he starts counting down the days to Christmas. February 12 is the first day pitchers and catchers are allowed to report for Spring Training 2013 — just 27 days away. That’s less than a month. Calm, cool and collected on the outside; I’m doing back-flips on the inside. You feeling it too? I thought so. This is our Christmas. Read the rest of this entry »
In a bid to get out of the cellar in runs scored in the American League and team wOBA in all of baseball, the Mariners made another move to bolster their offense. This time they acquired Michael Morse, star of one of my favorite baseball plays in recent memory. Seriously, please watch this if you never have, it’s AMAZING. Anyhow, Morse leaves behind a home ballpark that had a pretty neutral reputation to one that killed right-handers. But, that ballpark is undergoing changes. Let’s see if we could possibly figure out how the switch will affect Morse.
It’s projection time! Welcome to the first edition of the 2013 Pod Projections. Last year I started the Pod Projection series and in it, I explained the process behind my projections of the five fantasy categories for various players who were most interesting. I included an introduction that described the process in a general sense, so refresh your memory by checking it out again.
Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust. Read the rest of this entry »
Michael Morse has emerged as a strong offensive force for the Washington Nationals over the past two seasons. After being a part-time player for most of his career, Morse has posted a .369 wOBA since sliding into a full-time spot. With Adam LaRoche now back with the team, Morse will likely be traded. While Morse has been useful over the past two years, he’s done it with an unorthodox approach. Morse has refused to take walks. Morse is in a position to see his fantasy stock rise if he’s traded to a hitter’s park. But that might not matter if he continues to utilize the same approach at the plate.
After establishing himself as a strong fantasy performer over his first three full seasons, Matt Kemp turned on his nitro boosters and took his play to an entirely new level in 2011. That performance, which included just a home run short of 40/40, made him a top five pick in fantasy leagues last year. Unfortunately, a left hamstring strain cost him two months, but he still had himself another fantastic season while he was on the field. Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten what a full season of Kemp could provide — our own Alan Harrison took him fifth overall in the early RotoGraphs mock draft, but he wasn’t the only one to select Kemp among the top 10 players in recent mocks. He went sixth and seventh in two other industry mocks and sports an ADP of six on Mock Draft Central. But, are fantasy owners forgetting a key issue?
The text came in on January 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM.
“Happy New Year! Michael Bourn in the 4th round? Dubious.”
“Happy New Year! Last of the true burners. Still a good value in roto-based leagues,” I responded.
“Juan Pierre in Round 20,” was what followed. Read the rest of this entry »
