Everyone trying to predict this game gets things wrong. Take for example, me. I took a look at Shin-Soo Choo on the Indians and thought he’d be a perfect guy to sell high before his eroding athleticism became more obvious. Ooops? Let’s check more closely, though. We do know he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s one, and that can go a long way towards covering up a continued decline.

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Chris Carter has been on fantasy radars for several seasons, getting plenty of helium after launching an impressive 39 home runs in 2008 with Oakland’s High-A affiliate. He followed that banner season with 28 and 34 homers in 2009 and 2010, respectively, before bouncing between Triple-A and the majors for a couple years.

Fantasy owners have long desired to see what he could accomplish with 500+ plate appearances in a season, but defensive limitations and a penchant for striking out had previously kept him from getting regular playing time. That is, until the Houston Astros committed to him as a full-time player, splitting time between first base, left field and DH.

In his first full-season stint in the big leagues, Carter epitomized the three-true outcome approach. He struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances, posted a 12.0% walk rate and finished with 29 long balls. While only hitting .223 on the season, his power/patience approach still allowed him to remain an above-average contributor at the plate. He had a 113 wRC+ and 112 OPS+.

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We have arrived at outfield week and that means another day of reviewing my Pod’s Picks at the position. With so many busts, it shall be interesting to see how my rankings stacked up. With so many players being ranked at the position, it allows for much more disagreement, unlike some of the other positions where sometimes my choices below were just two or three ranks different, which isn’t all that meaningful.

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The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on outfielders.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2013 Hickory Crawdads were undoubtedly one of the most star-studded low-minors teams of the past decade. The Rangers’ Low-A affiliate, they had Joey Gallo, who became the first teenager in half a century to hit 40 homers in a season…and did it in just 113 games. For much of the season, though, Gallo trailed teammate Ryan Rua in the minor league home run chase (Rua finished with 32, 29 of them coming in 104 games with Hickory). They had Jorge Alfaro, who many consider one of baseball’s top catching prospects. They had Nomar Mazara, who holds the record for the highest signing bonus by a Latin American amateur, at $4.95 million. They had 2012 first-rounder Lewis Brinson, second Dominican bonus baby Ronald Guzman, and for much of the year, had pitcher C.J. Edwards, the headline prospect in July’s Matt Garza trade.

While all of those players (and relievers Alex Claudio and Jose Leclerc) hold considerable intrigue on their own, there was no 2013 Crawdad who left a stronger positive impression on me than outfielder Nick Williams.

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Headed into the season in my main league, I was pretty excited about the prospect of my outfield. In left field, there was Mike Trout, probably the most valuable player in fantasy. In right field, Domonic Brown, about to break out. They’d be flanking my center fielder, someone who not all that long ago was one of the most valuable fantasy player himself.

Sadly, it didn’t work out that way for Matt Kemp, who ended up being one of fantasy’s biggest busts. (Fortunately for me, I could easily move Trout to center and spot in left with, at various points, Evan Gattis, Norichika Aoki, and Alfonso Soriano.)

I feel a little bad listing Kemp with someone who was simply atrocious like B.J. Upton, because there was obviously a lot more to it than that. Really, there were three different Kemps this year: Read the rest of this entry »

When Yuniesky Betancourt earns more fantasy value than you, you know you’ve had a bad season. Or in other terms, if you decided to draft B.J. Upton this year, then you’re gonna have a bad time. According to Zach Sanders’ end of season dollar value calculator, Upton broke the hearts of Braves fans and his fantasy owners by generating negative fantasy value, ranking a sad 461st out of 482 players. When factoring in his ADP of 48, he ranked as the most value-sucking player according to our value leaderboard.

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There were definitely warning signs. Despite coming off the second-best offensive season of his career, Josh Hamilton was a bit of a fantasy lightening rod last offseason. There was plenty of evidence that his age, approach and new home park would contribute to him being a poor fantasy option. At the same time, Hamilton’s upside was tough to ignore. Over the previous five years, Hamilton showed he was capable of being the best hitter in baseball. That upside was the reason Hamilton remained an early fantasy draft pick despite legitimate concerns. His failures made it hard to pick another player for fantasy LVP.

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Well, Chris Davis is obviously the “real” Fantasy MVP. His ADP according to FantasyPros was seven spots worse than Hunter Pence’s, and he ended up eight spots better in the final rankings. But if you’d have asked me which guy I’d rather have going into this season, I would have easily reached for the power source in Davis. There were just too many warning signs with Pence to pick him. Right?

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A player can’t be drafted fifth overall, sign for $7.5 million, and not retain extremely high visibility for his minor league career. This is especially true of a player drafted into a franchise with a recent history of struggles that has sent its fanbase constantly scouring the farm system for signs of hope. Add in the prospect in question being a local high school multi-sport hero, and you have a player who will constantly be under the microscope.

That is the situation Royals outfield prospect Bubba Starling has constantly found himself in in his professional career. He was the fifth overall pick in 2011 and passed up a football scholarship at Nebraska for the massive bonus. Many reported that he had five tools, but like many multi-sport high school hitters, he combined impressive athleticism with rawness.

Two years into his career, Starling has had mixed results that have led many to question whether it’s time to jump off the bandwagon, while others point to his relative youth (he’s still just 21) and hold out hope for stardom. I did get to see Starling three times in the 2013 season, and today I’m going to take my shot at projecting him.

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