Colby Rasmus had somewhat of a re-breakout in 2013.

Having followed up a tantalizing 2010 sophomore season with a pair of disappointing campaigns, Rasmus produced a nearly-five win season in just 118 games, nearing career highs in home runs (22) and runs batted in (66).

Disabled list stints in August (abdominal strain) and September (ball to the face) kept him from being perhaps a top-30 outfielder. Instead, he ranked 55th and enters 2014 as somewhat of a question mark.
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Obviously, the tools are there. Dexter Fowler can run, can hit with pop, has a good eye at the plate, and is a good defender. Those tools have made him an above-average regular by ‘real baseball’ measures and a top-sixty outfielder, worth more than seven bucks last year by our retrospective fantasy value measures.

And yet, his owners are probably getting tired of continually being teased by upside beyond. Just google his name and ‘breakout’ and see how many results you get, spread over the last three years.

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Although the RotoGraphs team recapped the third base position a few weeks ago, Todd Frazier didn’t receive his due attention, so it seemed prudent to give him ample space in our discussion on outfielders — the only other position he played last season. The New Jersey native was a popular sleeper pick after posting a solid .354 wOBA (8th amongst third basemen with 400+ PA) with 19 home runs and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012.

Unfortunately, Frazier delivered a disappointing sophomore campaign this year. His batting average plummeted to a mere .234, his wOBA dropped to .319, and his home run numbers remained stagnant despite roughly 150 more plate appearances. Barely checking in ahead of D.J. LeMahieu, Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, the 27-year-old ranked as the 17th-best fantasy third baseman. That’s a far cry from where many fantasy owners expected him to be ranked at the end of the season.

Some fantasy analysts have pointed to the severe drop in BABIP from .316 to .269 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, as the main reason for Frazier’s decreased value. They’ve pointed to the increased walk rate, the decreased strikeout rate, the decreased swinging-strike rate and even to the fact that he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2013. All good things, certainly, but I’m not ready to jump aboard the BABIP train and simply explain away his struggles this year to mere random variation. That’s too simplistic and misses a key reason why his power and batting average dropped this season.

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Since 2008, Michael Bourn has been a reliable stolen base threat, but those days may be coming to a close. Bourn managed to provide nearly $8 of value last season,  but he did so with a career low total in stolen bases.

The 23 bags he swiped last season is part of a two year decline for Bourn. If we select the data to be as alarming as possible, he’s declined from 61 steals in 2011, to 42 in 2012, to last season’s 23 steal total. It seems we can expect four stolen bases in 2014.

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Hovering around replacement level in several categories does have its value. Despite offering near replacement level production in three of the five roto categories, Austin Jackson was still the 41st most valuable outfielder this year. That made him a solid fourth outfielder on fantasy teams even though he really only stood out in one category, runs scored. However, it was quite a fall from his performance in 2012, when he earned the 19th highest fantasy value. Jackson will need to return to being more than a one category contributor to make his fantasy owners happy, but can he?

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So went an old team name of mine back in 2011 when I was still using baseball themed puns. Since reaching the majors in 2008, Will Venable has been a reliable platoon bat in San Diego. He owns a career .334 wOBA against right-handed pitchers compared to a .293 wOBA against left-handers. He swipes 20-30 bases a season and can swat a few home runs too. And in 2013, he suddenly broke out in his age 30 season to provide nearly $14 of value to his owners.

His 2013 performance forces us to ask ourselves a question: Is Venable really a platoon bat?

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In 2012, there were exactly seven qualified players who posted an ISO over .250 and a slugging percentage over .500. They were Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Willingham, Jay Bruce, and Jason Kubel. Yes, Jason Kubel. Granted, of the group, Kubel had the least amount of value by WAR, but this kind of demonstrates the kind of company Kubel’s resurgence kept.

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With Jacoby Ellsbury immersed in the free agent frenzy, the Red Sox seem to be making plans for life in Boston without him. The latest rumors have them looking at Carlos Beltran for right field with Shane Victorino moving to center and Daniel Nava playing left. But the Sox are obviously kicking the tires on a few others and apparently, one thing helping them is Nava’s versatility. With his ability to play either corner position, the Sox can keep their options open and not limit themselves to just the short list of quality right fielders out there. But the real question here is, how do the Sox envision their outfield structure for 2014 and how exactly does Nava fit in? Read the rest of this entry »

Since he was a minor leaguer, I was a big Desmond Jennings fan. I figured he would be the next Carl Crawford for fantasy owners, but perhaps an even better real life player given his stronger walk rates. Unfortunately, that memo never reached Mr. Jennings and for the second straight season, he has disappointed his fantasy owners. In 2012, he was just the 49th most valuable outfielder, no doubt thanks to his .246 batting average and a knee injury that limited him to just 563 plate appearances despite batting lead-off. This year, he once again missed some time due to injury, but even with 11 fewer steals, moved up a couple of spots to finish as the 42nd most valuable outfielder. Of course, that was still a disappointing performance.

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According to Zach Sanders’ analysis, Josh Reddick was the fantasy replacement level outfielder of 2013. He was worth 41 cents. Dayan Viciedo was technically closer to zero with a negative 37 cent performance, but I find Reddick’s well-rounded brand of mediocrity to be more elegant. Hence, I am naming him Mr. Replacement.

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