When the New York Yankees signed free agent outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a ridiculous seven-year, $153M contract, not only did they likely say adios to second baseman Robinson Cano, but they also reiterated the fact that they simply don’t trust Brett Gardner enough to be their regular center fielder or leadoff hitter. Is he not capable of playing well defensively out there? Can he not get on-base at a reasonable rate? Is he not fast enough to steal bases and set the table properly for the heart of the order? Apparently not, if the Yankees continue to push him aside for every over-priced marquee name that looks their way. Forget about the fact that last season, his first real opportunity to play center field and bat leadoff, he posted a .271/.344/.412 slash line and played a strong defensive game. In Yankee-land, that’s role-player material, at best, worthy of move to left field and trip back to the bottom of the order.

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Well, that kind of came out of left field. I guess, more aptly, center field? Word broke last night the guy ranked 8th in Zach Sanders‘ end-of-season outfielder rankings is headed south on I-95. That’s right, Jacoby Ellsbury is following Johnny Damon’s footsteps and leaving the Red Sox for the Bronx immediately after winning a World Series.

To figure out what this means for 2014, we need to look back a bit at 2013. There are three areas Ellsbury derived positive value from this year: runs, batting average, and, of course, stolen bases. He did provide net positive value in RBIs and home runs (accounting for positional scarcity), but they were far and away his two least important categories. Runs and RBIs are a function of opportunity, and we know what your lineup does around you (and where you are within your lineup) is the main driver. We won’t focus on those. However, we can break down the other three aspects of Ellsbury’s fantasy game and write a 2013/2014 narrative.

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Ever since Eric Young stole 87 bases in 118 attempts in Single-A back in 2006 with the Rockies organization, fantasy owners have been salivating over his fantasy prospects. With respectable strikeout rates and consistently high BABIP marks coupled with playing half his future home games in offense-inflating Coors Field, we simply couldn’t wait for his first opportunity at a full-time job. Unfortunately, that never really came to pass. After being shuffled between second base and the outfield throughout his career, Young finally recorded more than 200 at-bats in a season and earned a smidge over $9 in fantasy value, good for 49th among outfielders.

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Since 2009, Gerardo Parra has been locked into a pseudo-backup role with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last season was Parra’s first opportunity to play everyday and that only came due to a preponderance of injuries. Still, he posted $7 of value and is a good bet to be similarly valuable in the future. With Adam Eaton and Cody Ross healthy once again, Matt Davidson threatening to push Martin Prado to the outfield, and A.J. Pollock also in the mix for reps, Parra will likely find himself back in his familiar platoon role.

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While most of the fantasy community is hip-deep in the football playoffs (myself included), there is still nothing more exciting for me than the MLB hot stove. Baseball has always been my first love and given the necessary preparation for keeper leagues, following the latest free agent movement and rumors is really what I love most about the winter. It doesn’t matter if it’s a marquee name or just a role-player hoping to establish a bigger role for himself with a new club, I track it all. If a player is moving into a favorable situation, I’m going to want to see if he’s worth drafting. If he’s headed somewhere that I think will be a detriment to his game, I’ll cross him off my draft lists. And with the latest rumors saying that Carlos Beltran is going to end up with the Yankees, I’m getting ready to bump him up on my draft sheets the moment he signs on the dotted line. Read the rest of this entry »

Colby Rasmus had somewhat of a re-breakout in 2013.

Having followed up a tantalizing 2010 sophomore season with a pair of disappointing campaigns, Rasmus produced a nearly-five win season in just 118 games, nearing career highs in home runs (22) and runs batted in (66).

Disabled list stints in August (abdominal strain) and September (ball to the face) kept him from being perhaps a top-30 outfielder. Instead, he ranked 55th and enters 2014 as somewhat of a question mark.
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Obviously, the tools are there. Dexter Fowler can run, can hit with pop, has a good eye at the plate, and is a good defender. Those tools have made him an above-average regular by ‘real baseball’ measures and a top-sixty outfielder, worth more than seven bucks last year by our retrospective fantasy value measures.

And yet, his owners are probably getting tired of continually being teased by upside beyond. Just google his name and ‘breakout’ and see how many results you get, spread over the last three years.

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Although the RotoGraphs team recapped the third base position a few weeks ago, Todd Frazier didn’t receive his due attention, so it seemed prudent to give him ample space in our discussion on outfielders — the only other position he played last season. The New Jersey native was a popular sleeper pick after posting a solid .354 wOBA (8th amongst third basemen with 400+ PA) with 19 home runs and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012.

Unfortunately, Frazier delivered a disappointing sophomore campaign this year. His batting average plummeted to a mere .234, his wOBA dropped to .319, and his home run numbers remained stagnant despite roughly 150 more plate appearances. Barely checking in ahead of D.J. LeMahieu, Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, the 27-year-old ranked as the 17th-best fantasy third baseman. That’s a far cry from where many fantasy owners expected him to be ranked at the end of the season.

Some fantasy analysts have pointed to the severe drop in BABIP from .316 to .269 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, as the main reason for Frazier’s decreased value. They’ve pointed to the increased walk rate, the decreased strikeout rate, the decreased swinging-strike rate and even to the fact that he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2013. All good things, certainly, but I’m not ready to jump aboard the BABIP train and simply explain away his struggles this year to mere random variation. That’s too simplistic and misses a key reason why his power and batting average dropped this season.

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Since 2008, Michael Bourn has been a reliable stolen base threat, but those days may be coming to a close. Bourn managed to provide nearly $8 of value last season,  but he did so with a career low total in stolen bases.

The 23 bags he swiped last season is part of a two year decline for Bourn. If we select the data to be as alarming as possible, he’s declined from 61 steals in 2011, to 42 in 2012, to last season’s 23 steal total. It seems we can expect four stolen bases in 2014.

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Hovering around replacement level in several categories does have its value. Despite offering near replacement level production in three of the five roto categories, Austin Jackson was still the 41st most valuable outfielder this year. That made him a solid fourth outfielder on fantasy teams even though he really only stood out in one category, runs scored. However, it was quite a fall from his performance in 2012, when he earned the 19th highest fantasy value. Jackson will need to return to being more than a one category contributor to make his fantasy owners happy, but can he?

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