Archive for Outfielders

The Colorado Rockies organization has always had a deep outfield in terms of depth and production, but Dexter Fowler could end up being one of the best players to ever graze the pasture. And his impact on the club could begin in 2009. The athletic outfielder is having a solid spring but it remains to be seen if he has played well enough to wrestle the starting center field job away from Ryan Spilborghs, who is hitting .386/.463/.818 with four home runs and five stolen bases. If Fowler does not win the starting job, he will certainly play everyday in Triple-A rather than sit on the bench in the Majors.

The 23-year-old prospect had a solid season in Double-A in 2008 with a line of .335/.431/.515, as well as 20 stolen bases and nine home runs, in 421 at-bats. Fowler posted rates of 13.4 BB% and 21.1 K%. He also earned his first call-up to the Majors, where he hit .154 in 26 at-bats. So far this spring, Fowler is hitting .313/.370/.438 with four stolen bases.

The outfield picture has changed somewhat from last year after the club traded Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics during the off-season, and also brought in young outfielders Matt Murton and Carlos Gonzalez via trades. Other players in the mix for a roster spot include Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. Dan Ortmeier and Scott Podsednik are attempting to make the club as non-roster invitees to spring.

The switch hitter was drafted in the 14th round out of high school in 2004, but would have been selected much higher if he had not had college offers from a number of schools, including Harvard. Defensively, he is an excellent center fielder. He stole more than 40 bases in 2006, but at 6’5” he could easy fill out and lose some of his quickness. A future 20-20 season is not out of the question, if he can learn to drive the ball more.

If he can obtain a starting outfield job in the first couples of months in 2009, Fowler could have a definite impact on Fantasy teams. He has the potential to provide some steals, as well as a respectable average. The power, though, will have to wait for 2010 and beyond.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s examine Colorado’s probable left fielder, Smith.

Smith came to the University of Mississippi as a well-regarded quarterback prospect. However, he got stuck behind some fellow named Eli Manning and never took a snap for the Rebels. While Smith’s gridiron dreams were grounded, he excelled on the diamond and was selected by the Rockies in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.

While Spilborghs struggled initially in the minors, Smith made a mockery of rookie ball (as he should have given his experience) with an OPS in excess of 1.000. Sent to a more age-appropriate level to begin the ’05 season, Smith held his own in the Cal League with a .300/.353/.458 line. Baseball America was just mildly impressed (ranking Smith 15 in the Rockies system), as college players showing doubles power in a hitter’s paradise don’t typically elicit rave reviews.

Promoted to AA Tulsa in ’06, Smith stepped up his game a bit with a .294/.361/.483 showing, displaying more power (.189 ISO) and making plenty of contact (14.1 K%). BA again rated Smith toward the middle of Colorado’s top 30 farm products, ranking him 16th while noting that AAA Colorado Springs would serve as “the perfect venue to turn some of his doubles into home runs.”

Deployed to AAA to begin the 2007 campaign, Smith smacked 17 taters while batting .317/.381/.528. He topped the .200 ISO mark (.211), no doubt aided by the nine percent increase in runs and doubles produced by Colorado Springs. 2008 brought more of the same at the level in the power department (.202 ISO), but Smith more than doubled his walk rate, from 8% in 2007 to 15.6% in ’08. Summoned to the big leagues in late May, the 6-3, 215 pounder produced a .349 wOBA in 123 PA (.259/.350/.435), again drawing his fair share of free passes (12.2%).

Smith appears to be the front-runner to replace Holliday in left field, though it’s possible that he ends up in more of a platoon situation. The 26 year-old has devoured right-handed pitching to the tune of .318/.381/.532 in the minors, but port siders have limited him to some walks and singles (.276/.360/.385). Matt Murton, acquired in the Holliday deal, could become Smith’s caddy. Chicago’s erstwhile redheaded step child has a career .311/.382/.484 line versus southpaws.

For 2009, CHONE projects a .362 wOBA for Smith, with a .288/.361/.461 line. PECOTA spat out a .273/.347/.450 prognostication for the former Rebel. Like Spilborghs, Smith is a decent hitter who has two very important things going for him: opportunity and the chance to take his hacks in the hitting mecca that is Coors. There’s some risk that he ends up as only the long half of a platoon, but Smith could give you pretty good output while probably not even requiring a draft pick.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s start with the guy who has spent the past few years wishing that Willy Taveras would just go away (a thought many Rockies fans surely echoed), Spilborghs.

The 29 year-old Spilborghs has been waiting for what seems like an eternity to crack the starting lineup. A little-noted 7th round pick out of U.C. Santa Barbara back in 2002, Spilborghs carried the sort of profile that often makes both scouts and stat-heads skeptical. His early work in the minors was nothing to write Dan O’Dowd about: he turned in a .633 OPS in Low-A as a 22 year-old in ’02, and followed that up with a .281/.372/.445 showing at Asheville in 2003.

The then-24 year-old college product advanced to the High-A California League in 2004, where one expects a polished batter to mash in such a hitter-friendly circuit facing pitchers several years his junior. Instead, Spilborghs slugged .385. Sure, he showed good plate discipline, but he had AAA filler written all over him at this point.

Instead, Spilborghs decided to channel Larry Walker in ’05. He drilled the ball in AA as a Tulsa Driller, ripping off a .341/.435/.525 line, and the mashing continued upon being bumped up to AAA (.339/.405/.551). The same caveats about advanced age and conducive offensive environments still applied, but Spilborghs put himself squarely on the major league radar. He continued to show secondary skills galore at AAA in ’06 and ’07 (splitting those years between the minors and majors), and holds a career .334/.403/.508 line at the level.

The 6-1, 190 pounder has spent the past three seasons as a part-timer for Colorado, with each season a little juicier than the last (.332 wOBA in ’06, .366 in ’07 and .384 in ’08). Aided by Coors, Spilborghs holds a career slash line of .302/.374/.466 in 765 PA. He rarely strays from the strike zone, walking 10.7% of the time and swinging at just 16.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. To boot, his K rate is a reasonable 17.5%.

In 2009, CHONE projects Spilborghs to bat .294/.376/.454, with a .367 wOBA. PECOTA portends a .290/.365/.438 line. That CHONE wOBA places Spilborghs in the company of his old buddy Holliday (though Holliday will play in a far tougher environment and offers SB’s, too) as well as the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier. Those two are better hitters in a neutral context (wOBA is not park-adjusted), but Spilborghs could offer 90% of their production without a premium pick.

Jermaine Dye had a career year in 2006 and turned in a top 10 fantasy season for hitters. Predictably he fell off that pace in 2007, a fall aided by a 63-point drop in BABIP and a recurring quadriceps injury. He rebounded in 2008 to be a top 40 fantasy hitter. The mock draft crowd is not convinced that Dye will maintain all of the recovery he made last year, as they have given him an ADP of 86.

The biggest concern surrounding Dye seems to be his AVG. He has a lifetime .276 mark in the category, and all five of the projection systems show him within a few points either way of that mark. Yet Dye has beaten his career average in two of the past three seasons, by 16 and 39 points.

The year in the last three that Dye did not beat his lifetime average he had a .271 BABIP. He has a career .302 mark in the category. Last year Dye had a .305 BABIP and finished with a .292 average.

Another factor in Dye’s poor 2007 season is that he did not take advantage of his home park. After posting a .307/.393/.595 line at U.S. Cellular Field in 2006, Dye hit only .258/.317/.384 at home in 2007. Last year he posted a .336/.388/.608 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Earlier, there were reports that the White Sox were looking to move Dye but nothing has come from that so far. If Dye gets to hit 81 games in Chicago, he has a very good chance to exceed his ADP. He is not someone you want to move too far up from his current ranking, which has him as an early eighth-round pick, but Dye is someone who offers upside at his current draft position.

Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are inextricably linked. Both reside in the American League Central, patrolling center field with aplomb while displaying the most diverse set of tools this side of Home Depot. While Sizemore deservedly sits near the top of any draft list that you’ll find, Granderson just does not seem to receive a proper level of admiration. Take this ESPN projection list, for instance. Grady garners first-place honors among center fielders, but Granderson ranks only ninth. While I’m not here to dissuade you from taking Sizemore first, I think it’s worth pointing out that Curtis comes equipped with many of the same virtues, and potentially at a bargain price. Let’s compare our two gifted fly-catchers.

On-Base Ability

Sizemore has posted OBP’s of .375, .390 and .374 over the past three seasons. A highly disciplined hitter (his career Outside-Swing% is 18.8%, compared to a league Avg. near 25%), Sizemore has drawn a free pass between 13-14% over the past two seasons.

Granderson is not quite as patient, but he still gets his fair share of base on balls. Granderson’s OBP’s from 2006-2008 are .335, .361 and .365. He worked a walk 11.4% of the time in 2008 (7.8% in ’07) while improving his O-Swing% from 23.4% in 2007 to 19.8% this past season.

Advantage: Sizemore

Power

Sizemore and Granderson have posted near identical Isolated Power figures during their respective big league careers, with Granderson (.214) ahead of Sizemore (.212) by the slightest of margins. Granderson held a big advantage in 2007, with a .250 ISO compared to Grady’s .185. However, Granderson’s number was due in part to an absolutely ridiculous twenty-three triples. With a more reasonable but still lofty 13 three-baggers in 2008, Curtis saw his ISO settle in at .213, while Grady smacked 33 bombs with a .233 ISO.

Advantage: Push

Base Stealing

When I think of base stealing, I tend to think of doctors. Specifically, the Hippocratic Oath. Some wild, unrestrained runners would serve their teams well by swearing to “above all, do no harm.” A properly leveraged SB can be a very smart play, but the relative value of a stolen base isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be: according to numbers guru Tom Tango, a SB is worth approximately +.19 runs while a CS chops off a pernicious -.46 runs.

The break-even rate on a SB (that is, the point at which a player is no longer doing harm to his team) is about 67 percent, according to The Book. This might sound abstract, but it has fantasy baseball applications as well: a guy who racks up the SB’s might help you in one category, but if he’s stealing with the “success” rate of a Ryan Theriot (22 SB/13 CS in ’08), he’s costing you possible runs.

While some players compile huge SB totals while costing their club on the base paths, both Sizemore and Granderson have shown the ability to provide quantity and quality. Sizemore has been the consistent SB threat, swiping 22 bags in ’06 (78.6% success rate), 33 in ’07 (76.7%) and 38 in 2008 (88.4%).

Granderson was just about the most effective thief in the game in 2007, snagging 26 SB’s in 27 attempts (96.3%). He didn’t really use those wheels as much this past season, however, nabbing 12 bags in 16 attempts.

Advantage: Sizemore

2009 Projections

CHONE

Sizemore: .286/.386/.503, 28 SB
Granderson: .276/.350/.474, 14 SB

Oliver

Sizemore: .273/.357/.473 (no SB projections)
Granderson: .278/.347/.484

PECOTA

Sizemore: .269/.367/.493, 27 SB
Granderson: .266/.342/.467, 11 SB

Sizemore is very likely the superior player, but don’t forget about the guy holding court in Detroit, either. MVN’s Jeff Freels recently compiled a collection of ADP figures from the likes of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo which showed Sizemore with an ADP of 5. He’s worth that, to be sure. But Granderson? He rated 52nd. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag the across-the-board production of a Sizemore or a Carlos Beltran, Granderson could be a steal in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, particularly if he turns it loose on the bases once again.

In 2007, Magglio Ordonez posted a .363-28-139-117-4 line, easily his best work in five years. However, he did this in large part thanks to a .385 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark in the majors. In 2008, with a still-high .338 BABIP, Ordonez checked in with a .317-21-103-72-1 line. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, it was the 47th-best hitting season in the majors last year.

The latest numbers over at Mock Draft Central have Ordonez with an ADP of 64. With 10 pitchers with a higher ADP than 64, the mockers are expecting at least a little fall back from Ordonez in 2009.

In order to justify that ADP, Ordonez will need another high BABIP. Fortunately, all five of the projection systems see him bettering his lifetime mark of .320 in the category. Ordonez has always been a good line drive hitter, he does not strike out very much and even at age 34, he ran well enough to beat out 11 infield hits last year.

But what can we expect from Ordonez in the power categories? For five straight seasons, Ordonez hit 29 or more home runs. But in his last three healthy years, he has posted HR totals of 24-28-21. The easy answer is that he went from a great park for homers in Chicago to a merely good one in Detroit.

From 2000-2002, Ordonez hit 62 HR at home and 39 on the road. Contrast that to 2006-2008, when he hit 38 HR in Comerica compared to 35 on the road.

But it is not just the ballpark. Pitchers seem to fear Ordonez less than they used to back in his Chicago days. Last year, he saw fastballs on 63.9 percent of his pitches, an unusually high number for a 30-HR threat. That was the 23rd-highest percentage of fastballs by any batter in the majors. He is surrounded on the list by weak-hitting middle infielders and catchers, and outfielders with no power. Among power hitters, only Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez saw a greater percentage of fastballs.

The projection systems show him hitting 20-24 HR in 2009. It would not be unreasonable for him to meet these projections but at the same time it seems clear that his 30-HR days are a thing of the past.

Bottom line is that while Ordonez is capable of meeting his ADP, there is absolutely no upside if you spend an early sixth-round pick on him. And while there is nothing wrong with a player matching what you expect from him, you have to counter that with the risk involved. With Ordonez, the risk is that his BABIP fails to meet the lofty expectations and instead of being a plus with a .310+ AVG he ends up being neutral or even a negative in the category.

Despite losing one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball with the trade of C.C. Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians received one of the most talented up-and-coming sluggers in return from the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt LaPorta was selected seventh overall by the Brewers in the 2007 amateur draft after a four-year stay at the University of Florida.

With a young star named Prince Fielder already established at first base in Milwaukee, LaPorta was shifted off his traditional defensive position to left field. Most scouts felt the move was suicide and that the below-average-fielding first baseman would be lost in left. LaPorta’s play, though, has some now feeling that he could be a fringe-average outfielder at the Major League level. However, with the trade to Cleveland, the right-handed hitting slugger could settle into a big league gig at first base and/or designated hitter.

Currently, the club has the oft-injured Travis Hafner (left-handed hitter), and Ryan Garko (right-handed) filling the 1B/DH roles. LaPorta’s prodigious power (.577 career slugging) could match that of Hafner’s in his prime, and surpass anything that Garko (career .447 SLG, .404 in 2008) might have to offer. Hafner’s power output and slugging percentages have dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons (.451 SLG in 2007 and .323 in 2008).

LaPorta’s first full pro season was spent in Double-A in 2008, first in the Milwaukee organization (302 at-bats), and then in the Cleveland system (60 at-bats). He also spent time playing in the Olympics after the trade, where he suffered a concussion that plagued him for the remainder of the season. During his time at Double-A with Milwaukee, LaPorta hit .288/.402/.576 with an ISO of .288. He also showed his prowess as a run-producer by driving in 66 batters in just 84 games. LaPorta also posted solid rates: 13.0 BB% and 20.9 K%.

The Florida native has been seeing plenty of playing time this spring with Cleveland and is currently hitting .300/.391/.550 in eight games. There is not a lot of work he needs to do in the minors, although breaking balls still give him some trouble. LaPorta could very well open the season in Cleveland – or surface by May. If he does play the majority of the season in Cleveland, expect about 20 home runs, as well as a .260 average to go along with a healthy dose of walks and a pile of strikeouts. With experience, LaPorta will likely raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts.

Jacoby Ellsbury finished third in the majors with 50 SB last year. Along with his 98 runs scored and his .280 batting average, Ellsbury posted a $21.55 dollar value last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. That was the 32nd-best season by a fantasy hitter last year. The mock drafters are not completely sold on Ellsbury, giving him an ADP of 57 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Ellsbury made 129 starts last year, a figure that should go up with Coco Crisp no longer around to siphon off playing time. That should translate into better counting numbers, including steals. As for his average, all five of the projection systems see him besting his .280 of a season ago. Last year, Ellsbury had a .314 BABIP, a reasonable number given his speed, groundball tendencies (51.7%) and line drive rate (20.3%).

Ichiro Suzuki is a similar player to Ellsbury. Here are their fantasy lines from 2008:

IS – .310-6-42-103-43
JE – .280-9-47-98-50

Now, 30 points of average is a big difference but is it worth 29 slots of ADP? Certainly, Ichiro has more of a track record and could realistically post an even higher AVG in 2009. But Ellsbury could see a boost in his numbers thanks to both the expected playing time bump and the normal improvement from a young player. Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise?

Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP.

In an age of ubiquitous media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions. This is true in baseball circles as well, particularly when it comes to prospects. If a hot-shot minor leaguer reaches the big leagues and initially disappoints, there is a tendency to label the player a “bust” or write him off as overhyped. However, some guys just take a little longer to make good on those lofty expectations; not every youngster hits the ground running.

Jayson Werth is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Baltimore Orioles nabbed the lanky right-handed hitter in the first round of the amateur draft all the way back in 1997. A catcher at the time, Werth showcased solid on-base skills, but he failed to put much of a charge into the baseball. Still, his combination of premium position and a refined batting eye earned him plenty of accolades. As this Baseball Prospectus article notes, Baseball America ranked Werth as the 52nd-best prospect in the minors prior to the 1999 season (Werth dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist during the ’99 season, an unfortunate harbinger of things to come) and #48 before the 2000 campaign.

From those promising beginnings, Werth would go on to disappoint the O’s during the 2000 season, and was shipped to the Blue Jays for John Bale before 2001 kicked off. Werth split the ’01 and ’02 seasons between catcher, first base and the outfield, though his bat did improve without the strain of squatting behind the dish every day. He posted a .271/.383/.472 line between High-A and AA in 2001. “Jayson Werth, Prospect” was back at this point, as BA ranked him 70th overall following the year. Playing mostly outfield in 2002, he managed a .257/.355/.445 line at AAA.

Just when Werth looked to be back on track, he stumbled in a return engagement at Syracuse in 2003 (.237/.283/.441, 68 K in 236 AB). That, coupled with a few sour cups of coffee with the Jays, caused Toronto to cuts its losses with the 24 year-old. Werth was bartered to the Dodgers prior to the 2004 season in exchange for Jason Frasor.

The career roller coaster continued in ’04, this time hitting another high point. Werth managed a respectable .262/.338/.486 line, walking 9.4% percent of the time while showing range in the outfield. He did whiff 29.3% while showing a platoon split (.247/.318/.419 vs. RHP, .293/.381/.630 vs. LHP), but all in all it was a welcome bit of health and production for a guy with a bumpy road to the majors.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Werth’s success did not carry over into 2005. He had the misfortune of catching an A.J. Burnett fastball in the wrist during spring training, and he just never got on track in between three stints on the DL. Werth posted a 12.5 BB%, but severe contact problems (33.8 K%) and minimal thump due to the banged-up wrist (.139 ISO) led to an anemic .234/.338/.374 showing. Offseason surgery revealed ligament damage in the wrist, but the procedure did not cure what ailed him. The 2006 season was lost while recovering, and the Dodgers non-tendered Werth prior to 2007.

Near anonymous a decade after being a highly-regarded high schooler, Werth inked an $850K deal with the Phillies before the ’07 season. Philly GM Pat Gillick, head honcho of the Orioles back when Werth was a first-round selection, took a low-risk flyer and was rewarded. In 304 PA, Werth compiled a tasty .385 wOBA and batted .298/.404/.459. The 6-5, 225 pounder drew plenty of free passes (14.7%), though he did swing and miss enough to call that near-.300 average into question (28.6 K%). Werth continued to incinerate southpaws (.375/.467/.591) while merely surviving versus same-side pitching (.257/.371/.389).

After Geoff Jenkins faltered in the early going, Werth became an everyday player for the world-champion Phillies in 2008. In a career-high 482 PA, he turned in a .382 wOBA and a .273/.363/.498 line. His control of the zone remained similar (12 BB%, 28.5 K%), but Werth also translated his athleticism to the base paths by swiping 20 bags in 21 attempts. Lefties continued to feel the pain (.303/.368/.652) while righties held him in check (.255/.360/.407). Werth’s broad base of skills (walks, pop, plus defense and base running prowess) allowed him to post 5.2 Value Wins. His open-market worth was a stunning $23.4 million- talk about a sweet return on investment.

The Phillies rewarded the arbitration-eligible right fielder during the offseason, inking him to a two-year, $10M contract. Even if Werth regresses somewhat, the deal looks like a bargain for the club.

Going forward, the 29 year-old projects to post another impressive campaign in 2009. His overall line might not look as pretty- as an everyday guy, he’ll see a higher percentage of plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers- but his on-base adeptness, decent power production and 20 SB potential make Werth worth a draft pick in all leagues.

Shane Victorino made a great leap forward in 2007, doubling his HR output and seeing a nine-fold increase in his SB totals. He kept those gains in 2008, although in over 117 more plate appearances. Fantasy owners are big believers in Victorino, as he now holds an ADP of 51 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Victorino, while no slouch in other categories, gets most of his value from steals. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th overall in SB with 73. So the big question for him going forward is how likely is he to maintain his current level of production.

In 2007, Victorino was safe on 37 of 41 attempts for an outstanding 90 percent of his stolen base tries. Last year his success rate fell to 77 percent, still a fine number but off considerably from just a season ago.

The four projection systems that predict SB all show Victorino with less than 30 in 2009. CHONE gives him 23 SB, which is the 46th-best mark in the system. ZiPS has him down for 24, which is tied for 62nd-best in the majors.

Marcel, which uses a weighted average of the past three seasons, gives him 26 SB which ties him for 13th-best. The Bill James system gives him 27 steals.

A 10-bag drop in stolen bases would have a huge impact on Victorino. Those who spend a late fourth or early fifth-round pick on him are betting that he can beat the projection systems. This is not an unreasonable wager, he has done it the past two seasons, but a pick that early values Victorino at the top of his range.

Last Player Picked has Victorino as the 43rd-best hitter in fantasy baseball last year. If he matches what he did last year, he gives you equivalent value for his ADP. But there seems to be very little upside for Victorino there and the real possibility that he turns into a disappointment if he fails to crack 30 steals.