Archive for Outfielders

Hi, my name is Drew Silva. And I’m a baseball addict.

It’s my first post here on this wonderful website and I’m absolutely ecstatic. I’ll spare you too many details about my arrival, but I just want to let the Fan Graphs and Roto Graphs community know how grateful I am to be a part of this movement toward better understanding the game of baseball and, in particular, player performance. Hopefully I can add something to the fray. Just as my man Albert Pujols never squanders an at-bat, I’ll never put forth minimal effort on a post. 110 percent, and all that jazz.

My role on here is two-fold. I’ll provide semi-daily “meta analyses” of individual players, pulling information and opinions from a variety of resources to further understand the characteristics and potential of these chosen athletes. I’ll also be providing links to quality fantasy articles from other websites. If you ever come across, or personally produce, something you feel should be shared, feel free to hit me up.

I may tweak the format from time to time as I get settled in, so bear with me. I’m like the 2008 version of Ryan Howard — I’ll get around to mashing eventually.

The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is gaining increased attention these days with Manny Ramirez in the penalty box. His club is in first place in the NL West, with a major league-leading .667 winning percentage, and the 27-year-old outfielder is off to a fine start. Ethier is out-pacing his ZiPS projections in nearly every category with seven doubles, six home runs, 27 RBI and 23 runs scored through 123 at-bats. Let’s get further acquainted.

Ethier hosts his own blog on MLB.com, where he can be found reviewing restaurants and likening playoff losses to being “kicked in the stomach.” In a post dated October 16, 2008, he took partial blame for the Dodgers’ early exit against the eventual champion Philadelphia Phillies:

“We just had a lack of execution,” he wrote. “I’m guilty. I was not getting on base in front of Manny so he could drive me in. He hit something crazy like .538 but we didn’t score enough runs. I have to get the job done a little better. I have to come back next year with the knowledge I’ve gained from this and be a better baseball player.”

The Dodgers decided to move Ethier behind Manny in the lineup this offseason and all was well until a few days ago, when Ramirez’s PED-tainted urine knocked everything out of whack. Ethier was doing an excellent job of getting on base, with a .419 OBP through the month of April, but things have obviously changed in Chavez Ravine. He is now being shifted around the lineup on a nightly basis and is being challenged more often than ever by opposing pitchers. He hit third on Saturday, then cleanup on Sunday. In both games, however, manager Joe Torre slotted him behind Orlando Hudson. Torre’s logic is fairly obvious; he wants speed in front of power. But how will it affect Ethier’s offensive totals?

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times wrote a piece on Ethier just days before news of Manny’s suspension broke. Today’s subject had been drawing walks, including intentional passes, at an unusually high rate. “He walked 14 times in the Dodgers’ first 19 games, putting him on pace for 119,” Hernandez noted. “He drew 59 free passes last season.” Hitting behind Manny during the first several weeks of the ’09 season, he was being awarded first base whenever the dread-locked slugger failed to reach. He’ll no longer get that treatment, and it’s sure to affect his on-base percentage, among other things. Will it also derail his already impressive RBI and run totals?

No player in the Dodgers’ lineup will get on base as frequently as Manny did. Hudson has a career OBP of .349. Not terrible, but also not too sexy when compared to Manny’s career .412 mark. It’s simple math – there won’t be as many ducks on the pond when Ethier digs in. Expect a step back, unless Ethier can truly step it up.

On to some links…

KFFL asks the age-old fantasy question, “When is it time to punt a category?”

Mark St. Amant of Rotoworld has this week’s Fantasy Man-Crush Index. That third baseman from Tampa Bay, and his .480 wOBA, predictably tops the list. “Our current mesosphere, stratosphere and troposphere just aren’t high enough to contain the skyrocketing value of one Evan Longoria,” writes St. Amant.

Ballpark Bob of Fantasy Baseball Dugout believes WHIP should somehow incorporate HBPs as well. “There have been exactly 10% as many hit by pitches as walks” this season, reports Bentz . Hard to ignore.

Hans Horn over at Crooked Pitch analyzes the fall of David Ortiz. Big Papi has suddenly become “Big Pop-Up.”

For all of the club’s touted young hitting talent, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has flat lined in 2009. “Boasting” the third-worst wOBA in the major leagues (the A’s and Giants are one and two, the M’s fourth- it’s a west coast thing), the D-Backs are off the sluggish 12-17 start, with a run differential of negative twenty-two.

Arizona’s center fielder and right fielder offer quite the contrast in terms of making good on that former top prospect status. While Justin Upton has been downright venomous to opposing pitchers, Chris B. Young continues to raise concerns about his control of the zone.

Upton, of course, is a hitting prodigy. The 6-2, 205 pounder dominated minor league hurlers several years older than him, including a 2007 tour-de-force that saw hit bat a combined .319/.410/.551 between High-A Visalia and AA Mobile.

After an understandable bumpy start in the bigs as a teenager (.277 wOBA in 152 PA during the 2007 season), Upton more than held his own in 2008. In 417 PA, he batted .250/.353/.463, walking at an impressive clip (13.2%) while posting a .347 wOBA. His K rate was sky-high (34%), but that’s nitpicking when one considers that most 20 year-old players are toiling in A-Ball or are sophomores in college.

In 2009, Upton is one of the few Arizona hitters not embarrassing himself at the dish. The 21 year-old’s .405 wOBA paces the club by nearly 40 points (Mark Reynolds is second, at .367). Upton has creamed the ball, with a .271 ISO that runs circles around last year’s already-outstanding .213 mark. While he has continued to draw free passes at a decent rate (10.5%), his Kingman-esque strikeout totals haven’t been as much of a problem. He’s whiffed 25.9% of the time, still a high number, but the progress in that department is encouraging. Overall, Upton has compiled 5.1 Batting Runs, which already tops last year’s mark of 4.1.

While Upton has been busy claiming his spot as one of the most valuable properties in the game, Young has been hard at work trying to solve the energy crisis. The solution? Swing and miss enough, and we’ll have all the wind power necessary to end dependence on foreign oil. The former Pale Hose prospect (the principal swag in the Javier Vazquez trade several years back) had a spectacular minor league career, with a .266/.355/.500 line that actually understates his performance, if anything (he slugged .545 in AA and .532 in AAA). However, his performance to this point has left some wondering, “is that all there is?”

Young is in the midst of his third full season in the majors, but his results have cratered. After posting wOBA’s of .331 in 2007 and .329 in 2008, the 25 year-old has managed a feeble .248 this year. Young has always swung and missed with frequency, but his stellar secondary skills (walks and power) were expected to make the contact concerns moot. That just hasn’t been the case to this point:

2006: 7.9 BB%, 17.1 K%
2007: 7.0 BB%, 24.8 K%
2008: 9.0 BB%, 26.4 K%
2009: 5.9 BB%, 32.3 K%

What’s strange is that while Young’s control of the zone would appear to be eroding, he has actually increased his pitches/PA in each full season (2007 to now): 3.8 in ’07, 4.0 in ’08 and 4.2 in ’09. His overall contact rate hasn’t changed significantly, either, hovering between 75-77%.

In 2009, however, it seems as though Young is making worse contact: his Outside-Contact% has jumped from 53.7% in ’08 to 65.3% this season (62.1% MLB average). Conversely, his Z-Contact% (percentage of contact within the strike zone) has tumbled from 85.3% to 79.2% (87.7% MLB average). He’s putting the bat on the ball more often on offerings off the dish, while coming up empty with regularity on the pitches that do cross the plate. Young is also getting jammed more often than any other major league hitter: his IF/FB% is 41.7%, nearly five points higher than second-place Rick Ankiel.

Young’s .238 BABIP surely isn’t helping matters, and given a decent line drive percentage (18.5%), you’d expect that number to climb. Still, Young is going to have to do better than a 0.19 BB/K ratio if he’s going to lean more toward Upton’s brilliance in right, as opposed to Conor Jackson’s similar brand of disappointment in left.

While visiting the Los Angeles Times to read the story about Manny Ramirez failing a drug test, I came across another article in the sports section about Gary Matthews Jr. Columnist Mike DiGiovanna wrote on Matthews being a productive bat in the lineup once given a chance to play with Vladimir Guerrero on the disabled list.

DiGiovanna wrote: “Matthews has started 15 of the team’s 26 games and entered Wednesday batting .288 with 12 runs batted in. He has as many RBIs in 59 at-bats as Bobby Abreu has in 96 at-bats.”

Since Matthews is owned in only 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues, is he a good candidate to pick up? Especially with Abreu rostered in 100 percent of ESPN leagues? Since they have such unequal playing time, let’s look at their rate stats (rather than fantasy stats) to discover their fantasy prospects. Here are the respective AVG/OBP/SLG marks for Matthews and Abreu in 2009:

M – .270/.314/.349
A – .343/.405/.394

Clearly, Abreu has been the better hitter so why is he doing so poor in RBI chances compared to Matthews? It is not by home runs, since neither player has hit one out so far. Here are their numbers when they come to the plate with men on base:

M – 30 PA 12 RBIs .346/.367/.500 (0.40 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 50 PA 12 RBIs .375/.480/.450 (0.24 RBIs per plate appearance)

And here are their lifetime marks with men on base.

M -1758 PA 386 RBIs .259/.339/.416 (0.22 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 3704 PA 976 RBIs .324/.433/.532 (0.26 RBIs per plate appearance)

So it’s not that Abreu is doing bad, it’s that Matthews has done a great job of converting his chances in 2009. But seven of his 12 RBIs came in two games. On May 1st, he had four RBIs, thanks mostly to a bases-loaded triple. On May 5th he had three RBIs, thanks to a two-run double and an infield single.

As you might guess, Matthews has an excellent clutch score this season. He is second on the Angels with a 0.63 mark. That would be the 11th-best mark in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Abreu is sixth on the team with a 0.06 mark. Both players have clutch scores all over the map throughout their careers.

What seems curious is manager Mike Sciscioa’s decision to move Matthews to second in the lineup. A player with a below-average on-base percentage combined with an above-average slugging with men on base seems like a better fit lower in the order.

With Garrett Anderson gone, someone has to take the role on the Angels of driving in runs while hurting those who come up behind him by not getting on base. That snark aside, the RBIs by Matthews are real and they help both the Angels and your fantasy team.

However, do not rush to add him to your lineup. Matthews has had a couple of timely hits with men on base. But history has proven that Abreu is more likely to contribute in these situations and to give those behind him a chance to drive in runs, too. And while Matthews has been a plus in RBIs this season, he has been average or worse in AVG, SB and HRs. And his .270 average comes despite a .347 BABIP, 46 points above his career mark.

Judging by his past performance, Matthews is much more likely to hurt you in those three categories going forward than he is to help you in RBIs.

The Cleveland Indians organization finally made the move we all knew was coming the moment 1B/DH Travis Hafner hit the disabled list with another shoulder injury. The club promoted LF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta from Triple-A. LaPorta has crushed minor league pitching almost constantly since being the seventh overall selection in the 2007 draft. The right-handed batter was traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland in last year’s C.C. Sabathia deal.

He has massive power and could make an immediate impact in the Indians lineup, given appropriate playing time from manager Eric Wedge. LaPorta was hitting .333/.414/.640 with five homers in 75 at-bats for Triple-A Columbus. His walk rate has been constantly improving, which is encouraging, but you can expect him to strikeout 20-25 percent of the time.

LaPorta struggles against off-speed pitches so he’s going to see a lot of them early on in his MLB career. His career minor-league average is .292 but don’t expect him to hit for a high average right away. The power, though, should be there right from the get-go. He may get platooned early on, but he’s never really hit southpaws all that well with a career .237/.327/.452 line against them (compared to righties at .311/.407/.626).

The club also recalled infielder Luis Valbuena. He was picked up from the Seattle organization in the J.J. Putz trade this past off-season, which also saw outfielder Franklin Gutierrez head to Seattle. Valbuena has a little bit more pop in his bat than current Indians infielder Asdrubal Cabrera – who was also obtained from Seattle in an earlier trade back in 2006 – which can actually be a bad thing as he tries to muscle up from time-to-time. Valbuena has the chance to offer some stolen bases and a little pop, while also providing a respectable average. In other words, he’ll given a little bit of everything but he’s not going to be a star.

*For an extra bit of info… Here is an interview I did with Matt LaPorta shortly before the Brewers selected him with the seventh overall pick in 2007.

During the offseason, we touched upon the absolutely ridiculous range of the Seattle Mariners’ new outfield. With imports Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez joining Ichiro Suzuki out in the pasture, the M’s figured to possess three center field-worthy gloves to cover the gaps (Ken Griffey Jr. has since been added, to fill the Raul Ibanez comedic relief role).

The potential gain of a Chavez/Gutierrez/Suzuki alignment over Seattle’s consortium of laggardly leather in 2008 is huge, with a swing of perhaps 5 wins (more, if Chavez continues to see the field regularly). Granted, some of those gains will be returned in the hitting department, but the stable of fleet-footed defenders had to be a welcome addition to a pitch-to-contact rotation (M’s starters ranked 22nd in K/9 in 2008, with 5.92).

While Ichiro (ulcer) has only recently returned to the field following his first ever DL stint, Chavez and Gutierrez have put on a clinic in left and center. In ’08, the Mariners’ outfield posted a collective -4.6 UZR/150, meaning that Seattle’s fly-catchers were about five runs worse than average per 150 games played.

In 2009, the M’s outfield has compiled a spit-take worthy 56.9 UZR/150, lapping the field by a significant margin (the Rockies are currently second, with 36 UZR/150). Granted, we are talking about a small sample of games, and no bold claims should be made on defensive numbers in mid-April, but the change in quality has been nothing short of stunning.

Currently, Mariners pitchers have allowed a .128 Batting Average on Balls in Play on flyballs in 2009 (the A.L. average thus far is .230). Last year, M’s hurlers posted a .213 BABIP on flyballs (.215 league average).

Short of finding a way to clone Willie Mays a couple of times, it would be hard to keep up that pace. But, Seattle’s outfield trio comes with glowing scouting reports and the numbers to back them up. Strikeout-challenged starters such as Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva might not look quite as bad, with so many balls put in play being converted into outs, and the resurgent Erik Bedard is slanted toward the flyball end of the pitching spectrum.

Outfield defense might not seem like a big deal from a fantasy perspective, but having quality defenders behind a pitcher can be the difference between a guy being roster-worthy or simply waiver fodder. With Chavez, Gutierrez and now Ichiro manning the outfield, whomever takes the mound for the M’s does so with a leg up on the competition.

When the Washington Nationals went on an outfield shopping spree this past offseason, the competition for playing time figured to be fierce. Adding Josh Willingham via trade and Adam Dunn via free agency to a group of fly-catchers already including Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena (you know you’ve gone too far when you have an excess Wily), one or two players figures to get the boot or at least be tethered to the bench.

Out of that group, the former Cincinnati Reds prospects figured to lose out. Former GM Jim Bowden acquired his previous Cincy outfielders like they were Pokemon cards (gotta have ’em all!), but Pena was coming off of a putrid season (.228 wOBA in 2008), and Kearns struggled with injuries while failing to produce much at the plate either (.287 wOBA).

While Pena has since been dismissed, Kearns (owed about $8 million for the year) stuck around. And he’s done more than just keep best buddy Dunn company in the clubhouse: manager Manny Acta has started Kearns in right field in Washington’s first two ballgames.

Setting aside the insanity of benching Dukes (quite possibly the Nationals’ all-around best position player), let’s take a look at Austin’s profile to see if he’s worth taking a flyer on.

A 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with power and swiftness afield, Kearns was taken with the 7th overall pick out of Lexington, Kentucky in the 1998 amateur draft. He reached the majors at age 22, looking well worth the investment: Kearns batted .315/.407/.500 with a .394 wOBA during his rookie season in 2002. He pulled a hamstring toward the end of the campaign (an unfortunate bit of foreshadowing), but Austin looked poised to anchor the Reds’ lineup

While that prodigious debut portended to great accomplishments, Kearns lost a big chunk of the ’03 season to rotator cuff inflammation, batting .264/.364/.455. And so began the pattern: somewhat disappointing production, coupled with a copious amount of injuries:

2004
Apr 28, 2004: Fractured left forearm, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 25th).
Jun 8, 2004: Thumb injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 2th).
Aug 24, 2004: Missed 71 games (thumb injury).
Jul 11, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (thumb injury).

.324 wOBA, .230/.321/.419 in 246 PA

2005
Jul 20, 2005: Recalled from Louisville (AAA).
Jun 12, 2005: Optioned to Louisville (AAA).

.339 wOBA, .240/.333/.452 in 448 PA

By this point, Kearns was no longer the golden boy of the Cincinnati organization. Exasperated by his inability to stay on the field, the Reds shipped Kearns to the Nats along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner in exchange for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson in July of 2006. In good health for once, Kearns would actually turn in a superb all-around season in ’06, accumulating 4.1 Value Wins by playing a slick outfield and posting a .358 wOBA (.264/.363/.467 in 629 PA).

In 2007, Kearns set a career-high in plate appearances, coming to the dish 674 times. His results in the power department were underwhelming: after posting ISO’s in excess of .200 in ’05 and ’06, Kearns slipped to .145. Overall, he posted a near league-average wOBA of .337, batting .266/.355/.411. That, combined with continued flashes of leather, helped Kearns post 3.6 Value Wins.

Then came 2008. Like so many other pieces of the Nats’ offensive “attack”, Kearns’ bat flat lined on his way to a grisly .217/.311/.316 line, with a .099 ISO (it’s like he and Willie Harris switched bodies, or something). Kearns was felled by right elbow and foot injuries, sapping him of any kind of sock.

Small sample size-itis seemingly infected Washington’s front office this spring, however. While would-be stud Dukes batted .212 in a small clump of generally meaningless games played in front of elderly Floridians, Kearns slugged .581. Apparently, that was enough to re-distribute playing time in right field (sigh).

When healthy (a condition anything but assured), Kearns is by no means a bad player. In fact, with his range and solid on-base skills, he could be a nice complementary piece on a team with playoff aspirations. However, as a Nat, he’s blocking one of the organization’s offensive pillars, and his extra-base thump has waned in recent years. Most of the projection systems have Kearns pegged for a modest season with the bat:

CHONE: .252/.350/.413
Oliver: .258/.347/.427
ZiPS: .252/.351/.400

This is one of those situations where “real” and fantasy baseball might diverge: Kearns’ defensive capabilities help push him into the realm of acceptable starter. However, that matters little in most every fantasy league, as Kearns’ lumber projects to produce dime-a-dozen numbers. The 28 year-old is worth a look in deeper leagues, but that guy who looked like an offensive force back in 2002 likely won’t be reappearing.

In a bit of a surprising move, Jordan Schafer has been named the opening-day starter in center field for the Atlanta Braves. Now to be fair, this is not the same Atlanta Braves team that dominated during the ’90s and early 2000s. The much younger team is still struggling to find a new identity after a few years of disappointing results and has finished in either third or fourth place in each of the last three seasons. So it’s a great time to take a risk on some youth.

So, why is Schafer such a risk? Isn’t he one of the club’s top prospect? Well, yes he is one of the top young players in the organization, but Schafer also has spent just 84 regular season games above A-ball. He managed a batting average of just .269 in Double-A last year after missing 50 games thanks to an early-season suspension for the use of growth hormones. The talented player with modest home run results also struck out 89 times in 84 games last year (29.6 K%).

On the plus side, though, Schafer’s isolated power has increased each of the last three seasons and topped out at .202 last season, although he hit just 10 homers in 297 at-bats. He also showed the ability to produce 10-20 steals, after nabbing 12 in Double-A, and 19 the previous season (in 30 tries). Schafer is also an excellent defensive outfielder, who should save some runs with the glove.

One other word of caution about the youngster: The left-handed batter hit just .196/.306/.299 against southpaws in 2008 (.236 average lifetime), compared to .309/.416/.565 against right-handers. So that means he should probably be platooned – especially against the better left-handed pitchers. The bad news, though, is that the Atlanta roster is pretty much void of options, save perhaps for… Omar Infante? If Schafer has to play regularly against southpaws, it’s going to drag down his overall numbers and hurt fantasy owners.

If you have Schafer on your fantasy team entering the 2009 season, expect a .270 average, 10 homers and 15 stolen bases. It’s nothing to write home about, but it should be a solid base for a very good baseball career. In other words, at this point, he’s a better investment in keeper leagues.

Prospects can really try your patience at times… especially if you draft a player based on his overall athletic ability and pray that he can translate that to the ball diamond. Such was the case with the Cincinnati Reds organization and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted out of the University of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 draft.

He showed signs of life in 2007 and fully emerged from his cocoon in 2008 when he hit .287/.384/.479 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 349 at-bats at Triple-A. Dickerson earned a promotion to the Majors and hit .304 with six homers and five steals in 102 at-bats. If his power is for real, he has the potential to be an above-average defensive outfielder who can hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases in 500 at-bats.

The knock on Dickerson, though, is that the left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws. In his last four minor-league seasons, he hit .223/.328/.319 against left-handed pitching, compared to .272/.364/.464 against right-handers. In 2008, though, he improved to hit .258 against southpaws, which could allow him to play regularly in the Majors if he can keep that up. If not, he could be a solid platoon player.

Dickerson, 26, could form an impressive left-field platoon with powerful Tampa Bay cast-off Jonny Gomes (currently a non-roster player having a good spring with four homers and 12 RBI). For Dickerson, spring training has had its ups and downs. He’s hitting .300 but he’s also struck out 21 times in 23 games and he’s been caught stealing five times in 11 chances.

There are still rough edges to Dickerson’s game, but he has the potential to add a little excitement to a young roster that includes second-year players Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto. If he plays everyday, expect a healthy number of steals, some home runs, good defense and a ton of strikeouts.

We’ve all sifted through Jose Tabata’s dirty laundry this week thanks to his wife. But that story should not diminish the fact that the former Yankees prospect has the potential to have an impact at the MLB level in 2009.

We’ve been hearing a lot about Tabata for a while now and the gifted outfielder is beginning his fifth pro season, but he’s still just 20 years old. He came to North America as a 16 year old in 2006. In his first four pro seasons, Tabata accumulated 1,280 at-bats and hit .296/.366/.401. He had a rough start to the 2008 season with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate at the age of 19. He hit .248/.320/.310 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases in 294 at-bats.

Then the trade came. Tabata was shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the loot for fellow outfielder Xavier Nady. In Double-A for Pittsburgh, the Venezuelan hit .348/.402/.562 with eight steals in 89 at-bats. This spring, while also dealing with shoulder soreness, Tabata has hit .407/.500/.556 in 27 at-bats.

The Pirates club is loaded with outfielders, which all but guarantees Tabata will begin the year in Triple-A. That would not be a bad thing given his age, inexperience and the ‘media incident’ that he had to deal with this spring. If he gets his feet underneath him quickly in Indianapolis, though, Tabata has the skill to best the likes of Nyjer Morgan, Eric Hinske and even fellow outfield prospect Brandon Moss.

Tabata has been filling out so he’s becoming less and less of a stolen base threat at this point and his power has yet to fully develop, which will hinder him offensively as a Major League right-fielder. With that said, he could still provide eight to 10 home runs, as well as 10-15 stolen bases, along with a decent average if given 400 at-bats during his first MLB season.

It was an injury-plagued season for Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells in 2008. First he missed 26 games due to a broken left wrist and then had to sit out 25 more due to a hamstring injury. After returning on August 10th from the latter injury, Wells hit .318/.365/.566 over his final 189 plate appearances, putting up those numbers with a .291 BABIP as he had 11 HR and 13 SO in that span.

The projection systems do not anticipate a big year from Wells in 2009. All five see him missing significant time, with the CHONE system giving him the most action with 555 at-bats. That is a total that Wells exceeded in five of the six seasons prior to 2008, and he topped 600 at-bats in four of those.

Is Wells now a big injury risk? It is hard not to notice his at-bats have gone from 611-584-427 over the past three seasons. In addition to his two injuries last year, Wells suffered a shoulder injury near the end of 2007, which required surgery. He has also missed time this Spring with a sore hamstring.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Wells put up a top-25 fantasy season among hitters. The last two months of 2008, he showed that he is still capable of putting up big numbers. Wells currently sits with an ADP of 105 according to the latest report over at Mock Draft Central.

Wells is a classic high-risk, high-reward pick. No one will blame you if you shy away from him on Draft Day. However, for my tastes there is just too much upside to pass on him at the end of the ninth round. It seems like Wells has been around forever, but he turned 30 at the end of last year, so it would not be a big surprise to see him put up a healthy season again.

The hamstring injury is a big concern because of the possibility for that to flare up at any time. But his other two injuries were not of the chronic nature. He may no longer be a threat to steal 20 bases, but if running less keeps him on the field more, that is a trade off fantasy owners should be willing to take.

He should be very productive while in the lineup and he offers the possibility of great stats if he can get back to the 150 games played level. If you drafted solid, low-risk guys in the early rounds, you should be able to gamble on a guy like Wells at his current ADP.