During the offseason, we touched upon the absolutely ridiculous range of the Seattle Mariners’ new outfield. With imports Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez joining Ichiro Suzuki out in the pasture, the M’s figured to possess three center field-worthy gloves to cover the gaps (Ken Griffey Jr. has since been added, to fill the Raul Ibanez comedic relief role).

The potential gain of a Chavez/Gutierrez/Suzuki alignment over Seattle’s consortium of laggardly leather in 2008 is huge, with a swing of perhaps 5 wins (more, if Chavez continues to see the field regularly). Granted, some of those gains will be returned in the hitting department, but the stable of fleet-footed defenders had to be a welcome addition to a pitch-to-contact rotation (M’s starters ranked 22nd in K/9 in 2008, with 5.92).

While Ichiro (ulcer) has only recently returned to the field following his first ever DL stint, Chavez and Gutierrez have put on a clinic in left and center. In ’08, the Mariners’ outfield posted a collective -4.6 UZR/150, meaning that Seattle’s fly-catchers were about five runs worse than average per 150 games played.

In 2009, the M’s outfield has compiled a spit-take worthy 56.9 UZR/150, lapping the field by a significant margin (the Rockies are currently second, with 36 UZR/150). Granted, we are talking about a small sample of games, and no bold claims should be made on defensive numbers in mid-April, but the change in quality has been nothing short of stunning.

Currently, Mariners pitchers have allowed a .128 Batting Average on Balls in Play on flyballs in 2009 (the A.L. average thus far is .230). Last year, M’s hurlers posted a .213 BABIP on flyballs (.215 league average).

Short of finding a way to clone Willie Mays a couple of times, it would be hard to keep up that pace. But, Seattle’s outfield trio comes with glowing scouting reports and the numbers to back them up. Strikeout-challenged starters such as Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva might not look quite as bad, with so many balls put in play being converted into outs, and the resurgent Erik Bedard is slanted toward the flyball end of the pitching spectrum.

Outfield defense might not seem like a big deal from a fantasy perspective, but having quality defenders behind a pitcher can be the difference between a guy being roster-worthy or simply waiver fodder. With Chavez, Gutierrez and now Ichiro manning the outfield, whomever takes the mound for the M’s does so with a leg up on the competition.

When the Washington Nationals went on an outfield shopping spree this past offseason, the competition for playing time figured to be fierce. Adding Josh Willingham via trade and Adam Dunn via free agency to a group of fly-catchers already including Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena (you know you’ve gone too far when you have an excess Wily), one or two players figures to get the boot or at least be tethered to the bench.

Out of that group, the former Cincinnati Reds prospects figured to lose out. Former GM Jim Bowden acquired his previous Cincy outfielders like they were Pokemon cards (gotta have ’em all!), but Pena was coming off of a putrid season (.228 wOBA in 2008), and Kearns struggled with injuries while failing to produce much at the plate either (.287 wOBA).

While Pena has since been dismissed, Kearns (owed about $8 million for the year) stuck around. And he’s done more than just keep best buddy Dunn company in the clubhouse: manager Manny Acta has started Kearns in right field in Washington’s first two ballgames.

Setting aside the insanity of benching Dukes (quite possibly the Nationals’ all-around best position player), let’s take a look at Austin’s profile to see if he’s worth taking a flyer on.

A 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with power and swiftness afield, Kearns was taken with the 7th overall pick out of Lexington, Kentucky in the 1998 amateur draft. He reached the majors at age 22, looking well worth the investment: Kearns batted .315/.407/.500 with a .394 wOBA during his rookie season in 2002. He pulled a hamstring toward the end of the campaign (an unfortunate bit of foreshadowing), but Austin looked poised to anchor the Reds’ lineup

While that prodigious debut portended to great accomplishments, Kearns lost a big chunk of the ’03 season to rotator cuff inflammation, batting .264/.364/.455. And so began the pattern: somewhat disappointing production, coupled with a copious amount of injuries:

2004
Apr 28, 2004: Fractured left forearm, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 25th).
Jun 8, 2004: Thumb injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 2th).
Aug 24, 2004: Missed 71 games (thumb injury).
Jul 11, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (thumb injury).

.324 wOBA, .230/.321/.419 in 246 PA

2005
Jul 20, 2005: Recalled from Louisville (AAA).
Jun 12, 2005: Optioned to Louisville (AAA).

.339 wOBA, .240/.333/.452 in 448 PA

By this point, Kearns was no longer the golden boy of the Cincinnati organization. Exasperated by his inability to stay on the field, the Reds shipped Kearns to the Nats along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner in exchange for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson in July of 2006. In good health for once, Kearns would actually turn in a superb all-around season in ’06, accumulating 4.1 Value Wins by playing a slick outfield and posting a .358 wOBA (.264/.363/.467 in 629 PA).

In 2007, Kearns set a career-high in plate appearances, coming to the dish 674 times. His results in the power department were underwhelming: after posting ISO’s in excess of .200 in ’05 and ’06, Kearns slipped to .145. Overall, he posted a near league-average wOBA of .337, batting .266/.355/.411. That, combined with continued flashes of leather, helped Kearns post 3.6 Value Wins.

Then came 2008. Like so many other pieces of the Nats’ offensive “attack”, Kearns’ bat flat lined on his way to a grisly .217/.311/.316 line, with a .099 ISO (it’s like he and Willie Harris switched bodies, or something). Kearns was felled by right elbow and foot injuries, sapping him of any kind of sock.

Small sample size-itis seemingly infected Washington’s front office this spring, however. While would-be stud Dukes batted .212 in a small clump of generally meaningless games played in front of elderly Floridians, Kearns slugged .581. Apparently, that was enough to re-distribute playing time in right field (sigh).

When healthy (a condition anything but assured), Kearns is by no means a bad player. In fact, with his range and solid on-base skills, he could be a nice complementary piece on a team with playoff aspirations. However, as a Nat, he’s blocking one of the organization’s offensive pillars, and his extra-base thump has waned in recent years. Most of the projection systems have Kearns pegged for a modest season with the bat:

CHONE: .252/.350/.413
Oliver: .258/.347/.427
ZiPS: .252/.351/.400

This is one of those situations where “real” and fantasy baseball might diverge: Kearns’ defensive capabilities help push him into the realm of acceptable starter. However, that matters little in most every fantasy league, as Kearns’ lumber projects to produce dime-a-dozen numbers. The 28 year-old is worth a look in deeper leagues, but that guy who looked like an offensive force back in 2002 likely won’t be reappearing.

In a bit of a surprising move, Jordan Schafer has been named the opening-day starter in center field for the Atlanta Braves. Now to be fair, this is not the same Atlanta Braves team that dominated during the ’90s and early 2000s. The much younger team is still struggling to find a new identity after a few years of disappointing results and has finished in either third or fourth place in each of the last three seasons. So it’s a great time to take a risk on some youth.

So, why is Schafer such a risk? Isn’t he one of the club’s top prospect? Well, yes he is one of the top young players in the organization, but Schafer also has spent just 84 regular season games above A-ball. He managed a batting average of just .269 in Double-A last year after missing 50 games thanks to an early-season suspension for the use of growth hormones. The talented player with modest home run results also struck out 89 times in 84 games last year (29.6 K%).

On the plus side, though, Schafer’s isolated power has increased each of the last three seasons and topped out at .202 last season, although he hit just 10 homers in 297 at-bats. He also showed the ability to produce 10-20 steals, after nabbing 12 in Double-A, and 19 the previous season (in 30 tries). Schafer is also an excellent defensive outfielder, who should save some runs with the glove.

One other word of caution about the youngster: The left-handed batter hit just .196/.306/.299 against southpaws in 2008 (.236 average lifetime), compared to .309/.416/.565 against right-handers. So that means he should probably be platooned – especially against the better left-handed pitchers. The bad news, though, is that the Atlanta roster is pretty much void of options, save perhaps for… Omar Infante? If Schafer has to play regularly against southpaws, it’s going to drag down his overall numbers and hurt fantasy owners.

If you have Schafer on your fantasy team entering the 2009 season, expect a .270 average, 10 homers and 15 stolen bases. It’s nothing to write home about, but it should be a solid base for a very good baseball career. In other words, at this point, he’s a better investment in keeper leagues.

Prospects can really try your patience at times… especially if you draft a player based on his overall athletic ability and pray that he can translate that to the ball diamond. Such was the case with the Cincinnati Reds organization and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted out of the University of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 draft.

He showed signs of life in 2007 and fully emerged from his cocoon in 2008 when he hit .287/.384/.479 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 349 at-bats at Triple-A. Dickerson earned a promotion to the Majors and hit .304 with six homers and five steals in 102 at-bats. If his power is for real, he has the potential to be an above-average defensive outfielder who can hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases in 500 at-bats.

The knock on Dickerson, though, is that the left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws. In his last four minor-league seasons, he hit .223/.328/.319 against left-handed pitching, compared to .272/.364/.464 against right-handers. In 2008, though, he improved to hit .258 against southpaws, which could allow him to play regularly in the Majors if he can keep that up. If not, he could be a solid platoon player.

Dickerson, 26, could form an impressive left-field platoon with powerful Tampa Bay cast-off Jonny Gomes (currently a non-roster player having a good spring with four homers and 12 RBI). For Dickerson, spring training has had its ups and downs. He’s hitting .300 but he’s also struck out 21 times in 23 games and he’s been caught stealing five times in 11 chances.

There are still rough edges to Dickerson’s game, but he has the potential to add a little excitement to a young roster that includes second-year players Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto. If he plays everyday, expect a healthy number of steals, some home runs, good defense and a ton of strikeouts.

We’ve all sifted through Jose Tabata’s dirty laundry this week thanks to his wife. But that story should not diminish the fact that the former Yankees prospect has the potential to have an impact at the MLB level in 2009.

We’ve been hearing a lot about Tabata for a while now and the gifted outfielder is beginning his fifth pro season, but he’s still just 20 years old. He came to North America as a 16 year old in 2006. In his first four pro seasons, Tabata accumulated 1,280 at-bats and hit .296/.366/.401. He had a rough start to the 2008 season with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate at the age of 19. He hit .248/.320/.310 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases in 294 at-bats.

Then the trade came. Tabata was shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the loot for fellow outfielder Xavier Nady. In Double-A for Pittsburgh, the Venezuelan hit .348/.402/.562 with eight steals in 89 at-bats. This spring, while also dealing with shoulder soreness, Tabata has hit .407/.500/.556 in 27 at-bats.

The Pirates club is loaded with outfielders, which all but guarantees Tabata will begin the year in Triple-A. That would not be a bad thing given his age, inexperience and the ‘media incident’ that he had to deal with this spring. If he gets his feet underneath him quickly in Indianapolis, though, Tabata has the skill to best the likes of Nyjer Morgan, Eric Hinske and even fellow outfield prospect Brandon Moss.

Tabata has been filling out so he’s becoming less and less of a stolen base threat at this point and his power has yet to fully develop, which will hinder him offensively as a Major League right-fielder. With that said, he could still provide eight to 10 home runs, as well as 10-15 stolen bases, along with a decent average if given 400 at-bats during his first MLB season.

It was an injury-plagued season for Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells in 2008. First he missed 26 games due to a broken left wrist and then had to sit out 25 more due to a hamstring injury. After returning on August 10th from the latter injury, Wells hit .318/.365/.566 over his final 189 plate appearances, putting up those numbers with a .291 BABIP as he had 11 HR and 13 SO in that span.

The projection systems do not anticipate a big year from Wells in 2009. All five see him missing significant time, with the CHONE system giving him the most action with 555 at-bats. That is a total that Wells exceeded in five of the six seasons prior to 2008, and he topped 600 at-bats in four of those.

Is Wells now a big injury risk? It is hard not to notice his at-bats have gone from 611-584-427 over the past three seasons. In addition to his two injuries last year, Wells suffered a shoulder injury near the end of 2007, which required surgery. He has also missed time this Spring with a sore hamstring.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Wells put up a top-25 fantasy season among hitters. The last two months of 2008, he showed that he is still capable of putting up big numbers. Wells currently sits with an ADP of 105 according to the latest report over at Mock Draft Central.

Wells is a classic high-risk, high-reward pick. No one will blame you if you shy away from him on Draft Day. However, for my tastes there is just too much upside to pass on him at the end of the ninth round. It seems like Wells has been around forever, but he turned 30 at the end of last year, so it would not be a big surprise to see him put up a healthy season again.

The hamstring injury is a big concern because of the possibility for that to flare up at any time. But his other two injuries were not of the chronic nature. He may no longer be a threat to steal 20 bases, but if running less keeps him on the field more, that is a trade off fantasy owners should be willing to take.

He should be very productive while in the lineup and he offers the possibility of great stats if he can get back to the 150 games played level. If you drafted solid, low-risk guys in the early rounds, you should be able to gamble on a guy like Wells at his current ADP.

The Colorado Rockies organization has always had a deep outfield in terms of depth and production, but Dexter Fowler could end up being one of the best players to ever graze the pasture. And his impact on the club could begin in 2009. The athletic outfielder is having a solid spring but it remains to be seen if he has played well enough to wrestle the starting center field job away from Ryan Spilborghs, who is hitting .386/.463/.818 with four home runs and five stolen bases. If Fowler does not win the starting job, he will certainly play everyday in Triple-A rather than sit on the bench in the Majors.

The 23-year-old prospect had a solid season in Double-A in 2008 with a line of .335/.431/.515, as well as 20 stolen bases and nine home runs, in 421 at-bats. Fowler posted rates of 13.4 BB% and 21.1 K%. He also earned his first call-up to the Majors, where he hit .154 in 26 at-bats. So far this spring, Fowler is hitting .313/.370/.438 with four stolen bases.

The outfield picture has changed somewhat from last year after the club traded Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics during the off-season, and also brought in young outfielders Matt Murton and Carlos Gonzalez via trades. Other players in the mix for a roster spot include Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. Dan Ortmeier and Scott Podsednik are attempting to make the club as non-roster invitees to spring.

The switch hitter was drafted in the 14th round out of high school in 2004, but would have been selected much higher if he had not had college offers from a number of schools, including Harvard. Defensively, he is an excellent center fielder. He stole more than 40 bases in 2006, but at 6’5” he could easy fill out and lose some of his quickness. A future 20-20 season is not out of the question, if he can learn to drive the ball more.

If he can obtain a starting outfield job in the first couples of months in 2009, Fowler could have a definite impact on Fantasy teams. He has the potential to provide some steals, as well as a respectable average. The power, though, will have to wait for 2010 and beyond.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s examine Colorado’s probable left fielder, Smith.

Smith came to the University of Mississippi as a well-regarded quarterback prospect. However, he got stuck behind some fellow named Eli Manning and never took a snap for the Rebels. While Smith’s gridiron dreams were grounded, he excelled on the diamond and was selected by the Rockies in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.

While Spilborghs struggled initially in the minors, Smith made a mockery of rookie ball (as he should have given his experience) with an OPS in excess of 1.000. Sent to a more age-appropriate level to begin the ’05 season, Smith held his own in the Cal League with a .300/.353/.458 line. Baseball America was just mildly impressed (ranking Smith 15 in the Rockies system), as college players showing doubles power in a hitter’s paradise don’t typically elicit rave reviews.

Promoted to AA Tulsa in ’06, Smith stepped up his game a bit with a .294/.361/.483 showing, displaying more power (.189 ISO) and making plenty of contact (14.1 K%). BA again rated Smith toward the middle of Colorado’s top 30 farm products, ranking him 16th while noting that AAA Colorado Springs would serve as “the perfect venue to turn some of his doubles into home runs.”

Deployed to AAA to begin the 2007 campaign, Smith smacked 17 taters while batting .317/.381/.528. He topped the .200 ISO mark (.211), no doubt aided by the nine percent increase in runs and doubles produced by Colorado Springs. 2008 brought more of the same at the level in the power department (.202 ISO), but Smith more than doubled his walk rate, from 8% in 2007 to 15.6% in ’08. Summoned to the big leagues in late May, the 6-3, 215 pounder produced a .349 wOBA in 123 PA (.259/.350/.435), again drawing his fair share of free passes (12.2%).

Smith appears to be the front-runner to replace Holliday in left field, though it’s possible that he ends up in more of a platoon situation. The 26 year-old has devoured right-handed pitching to the tune of .318/.381/.532 in the minors, but port siders have limited him to some walks and singles (.276/.360/.385). Matt Murton, acquired in the Holliday deal, could become Smith’s caddy. Chicago’s erstwhile redheaded step child has a career .311/.382/.484 line versus southpaws.

For 2009, CHONE projects a .362 wOBA for Smith, with a .288/.361/.461 line. PECOTA spat out a .273/.347/.450 prognostication for the former Rebel. Like Spilborghs, Smith is a decent hitter who has two very important things going for him: opportunity and the chance to take his hacks in the hitting mecca that is Coors. There’s some risk that he ends up as only the long half of a platoon, but Smith could give you pretty good output while probably not even requiring a draft pick.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s start with the guy who has spent the past few years wishing that Willy Taveras would just go away (a thought many Rockies fans surely echoed), Spilborghs.

The 29 year-old Spilborghs has been waiting for what seems like an eternity to crack the starting lineup. A little-noted 7th round pick out of U.C. Santa Barbara back in 2002, Spilborghs carried the sort of profile that often makes both scouts and stat-heads skeptical. His early work in the minors was nothing to write Dan O’Dowd about: he turned in a .633 OPS in Low-A as a 22 year-old in ’02, and followed that up with a .281/.372/.445 showing at Asheville in 2003.

The then-24 year-old college product advanced to the High-A California League in 2004, where one expects a polished batter to mash in such a hitter-friendly circuit facing pitchers several years his junior. Instead, Spilborghs slugged .385. Sure, he showed good plate discipline, but he had AAA filler written all over him at this point.

Instead, Spilborghs decided to channel Larry Walker in ’05. He drilled the ball in AA as a Tulsa Driller, ripping off a .341/.435/.525 line, and the mashing continued upon being bumped up to AAA (.339/.405/.551). The same caveats about advanced age and conducive offensive environments still applied, but Spilborghs put himself squarely on the major league radar. He continued to show secondary skills galore at AAA in ’06 and ’07 (splitting those years between the minors and majors), and holds a career .334/.403/.508 line at the level.

The 6-1, 190 pounder has spent the past three seasons as a part-timer for Colorado, with each season a little juicier than the last (.332 wOBA in ’06, .366 in ’07 and .384 in ’08). Aided by Coors, Spilborghs holds a career slash line of .302/.374/.466 in 765 PA. He rarely strays from the strike zone, walking 10.7% of the time and swinging at just 16.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. To boot, his K rate is a reasonable 17.5%.

In 2009, CHONE projects Spilborghs to bat .294/.376/.454, with a .367 wOBA. PECOTA portends a .290/.365/.438 line. That CHONE wOBA places Spilborghs in the company of his old buddy Holliday (though Holliday will play in a far tougher environment and offers SB’s, too) as well as the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier. Those two are better hitters in a neutral context (wOBA is not park-adjusted), but Spilborghs could offer 90% of their production without a premium pick.

Jermaine Dye had a career year in 2006 and turned in a top 10 fantasy season for hitters. Predictably he fell off that pace in 2007, a fall aided by a 63-point drop in BABIP and a recurring quadriceps injury. He rebounded in 2008 to be a top 40 fantasy hitter. The mock draft crowd is not convinced that Dye will maintain all of the recovery he made last year, as they have given him an ADP of 86.

The biggest concern surrounding Dye seems to be his AVG. He has a lifetime .276 mark in the category, and all five of the projection systems show him within a few points either way of that mark. Yet Dye has beaten his career average in two of the past three seasons, by 16 and 39 points.

The year in the last three that Dye did not beat his lifetime average he had a .271 BABIP. He has a career .302 mark in the category. Last year Dye had a .305 BABIP and finished with a .292 average.

Another factor in Dye’s poor 2007 season is that he did not take advantage of his home park. After posting a .307/.393/.595 line at U.S. Cellular Field in 2006, Dye hit only .258/.317/.384 at home in 2007. Last year he posted a .336/.388/.608 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Earlier, there were reports that the White Sox were looking to move Dye but nothing has come from that so far. If Dye gets to hit 81 games in Chicago, he has a very good chance to exceed his ADP. He is not someone you want to move too far up from his current ranking, which has him as an early eighth-round pick, but Dye is someone who offers upside at his current draft position.