Archive for Outfielders

Since the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, B.J. Upton has displayed every ingredient necessary to become a five-tool superstar at the major league level.

The 25 year-old has shown excellent plate discipline (12.1 BB% in 2007, 15.4% in 2008). Upton has unleashed feats of strength that belie his lithe 6-3, 185 pound frame, including 24 home runs in 2007 and a 2008 post season (7 HR, .652 SLG%) that appeared to solidify his status as a star. He swiped in excess of 40 bases in 2008, and has a chance at doing so again this season. You name a skill, and B.J. has shown it at one point or another.

Defensively, Upton has acclimated himself very well to center field (11.2 UZR/150 in ’09, nearly identical to his work in ’08). That range has helped keep him a viable starter (1.9 WAR). But why is it that, as the 2009 season comes to a close, B.J. has been one of the worst hitters in baseball?

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ’08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

While he won’t be confused with Jeff Francoeur any time soon, Upton has been less patient at the plate. His walk rate has dipped to nine percent, down considerably from the aforementioned marks in ’07 and ’08.

Upton swung at roughly 17 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone between 2007 and 2008. That figure is up a bit, to slightly over 19 percent this season (still well below the 25% MLB average). Upton is also offering at fewer pitches within the strike zone as well, taking a cut at roughly 66 percent of in-zone offerings from 2007-2008 and about 64 percent in 2009 (66% MLB average). There’s nothing overly alarming about these trends, but chasing more balls and taking more strikes is never a happy development.

From a batted-ball standpoint, Upton’s rate of line drives hit is down considerably. It’s important to keep in mind that the line drive/fly ball distinction is a subjective one made by the official scorer (and the rate at which liners are coded varies greatly by stadium). That being said, B.J.’s liner rate has fallen from over 19 percent from 2007-2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009. Again using a 500 PA cut off, Upton has the lowest LD% among all batters.

Where have those liners gone? Upton has greatly increased his rate of fly balls hit. B.J. hit a fly ball 37.6% of the time in 2007 and 30.6% in 2008, but that figure is up to 41.2% this year. While fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than grounders, lofting the ball into the air is obviously a positive trend in terms of hitting for power (fly balls hit in the A.L. in 2009 have a .603 slugging percentage).

Well, hitting more fly balls is usually a positive trend. Upton just hasn’t done much with those fly balls this season. His home run/fly ball rate, 19.8% in ’07 and 7.4% in ’08, is just 6.7% in 2009. That puts B.J. in the same company as Andy LaRoche and Vernon Wells. Upton slugged .952 on fly balls hit in 2007 and .534 in 2008. In 2009? He’s slugging just .396.

When Upton has taken a pitcher deep, he’s not clearing the fence by much, either. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, we can see that B.J.’s homers don’t pack as much punch.

Hit Tracker records, among other things, the “Standard Distance” of a home run. This essentially tells us how far the ball would have traveled if it had been hit with no wind, at a 70 degree temperature and at sea level. By factoring out wind, temperature and altitude, Standard Distance attempts to put HR distance on equal footing across stadiums. Here are Upton’s Standard Distances over the past three years:

2007: 394.7
2008: 406.7
2009: 387.5

(The A.L. average Standard Distance in 2009 is 394.7)

In terms of pitch selection, B.J. has scuffled against every type except curveballs. Upton has never had much problem with yellow hammers (+1.18 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +1.15 career). Sliders continue to stifle him, however (-1.8 runs/100 in ’09, -0.67 career). And, his performance versus changeups has taken several steps back (-0.92 runs/100, +0.82 career). Upton’s fall against fastballs has been quite dramatic:

Runs/100 value vs. fastballs, 2007-2009

2007: +1.87
2008: +0.02
2009: -0.24

Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386.

Still, that’s a far cry from what many had predicted, myself included. I’m left wondering if Upton has ever been truly healthy in 2009. He was hampered by a sore ankle earlier this month. And, more importantly, Upton openly admits that the off-season shoulder surgery which sidelined him in spring training and early April remains an issue.

Upton’s 2009 campaign has surely been a bitter pill to swallow for owners who expended a high draft pick on him. However, it’s not time to abandon ship. Despite the aggravating season, B.J. is just 25 years old and has already achieved a high degree of success in the big leagues. Given an off-season to mend his aching body, Upton could be a relative bargain in 2010. It would be a shame if such a talent continued to be held back by physical ailments.

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.

The outfield in Colorado is a little bit of a Crowded House, and at least one good player is probably wondering why the team is being “Mean to Me.” Brad Hawpe, despite his lack of any defensive skill whatsoever, is a rock in more than one sense of the word. He plays every day that he can, and should because he’s an important contributor on offense. The rest of the outfield? Not as easy to call.

In a way, it’s surprising that the team did not trade Ryan Spilborghs at the deadline because the 30-year-old is probably fifth on the outfield depth chart in Colorado. With a .351 career wOBA and passable defense even in center field (-2.1 UZR), he could fill a more important role on another team. He’s obviously the odd man out on a team that has needs elsewhere and is competing hard for the wild card.

There is some exciting play coming from the guys ahead of Spilborghs the depth chart. One thing seems obvious. Dexter Fowler has a lock on center field for the foreseeable future, and all of his flaws have simple corrections that seem to be in his reach. His defense has not been great as measured by UZR (-16.8 UZR/150), but most of that comes from a lack of range (-10.4 Range Runs), and a guy with a 7.5 speed score should seemingly post a better range soon. He also showed better range in the minors.

The other flaw is his strikeout rate, which is keeping him from entering elite status. Again, he had a strikeout rate closer to 20% in the minors than his 27.9% in the majors. Players often post higher strikeout rates in the majors, so perhaps this flaw will stay with Fowler his whole career. His strikeout rate has spiked in the minors before, though, and returned to normal so here’s a bet that it’s just Fowler learning the ropes and that he’ll be a .300-hitting average-fielding center fielder with power and speed before long.

But this was supposed to be a referendum on left field. Carlos Gonzalez, though boasting better defensive stats in center field (10.1 UZR/150) than Fowler, seems to be the team’s second option there. Instead, he’s battling it out with Seth Smith in left field, and they seemed to be mired in a bit of a strict platoon. With Smith’s career .764 OPS against lefties, he’s probably best served by sitting out against southpaws. Then again, Gonzalez is also a lefty, so this isn’t the perfect platoon.

Should Gonzalez be getting more playing time? He’s had 37 August at-bats to Smith’s 34, and he’s outperforming him in this small sample (1.093 OPS to Smith’s .697). Gonzalez has had a wildly oscillating strikeout rate in his minor league career (14.3% to 25.8%), but his major league strikeout rate has been stable at a high 26.6% level. The biggest change this year has been that CarGo has found his power again (.203 ISO) and also upped his walk rate to his minor league rate (8.9% this year, 7.5% in the minors). Added to a 4-component speed score (7.8) that would rank fourth in the league if he played more, and there’s an exciting picture being painted here.

With his recent play, CarGo’s physical tools seem to be winning out over Smiths’ slow and steady approach. Smith has a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate, with a high walk rate (12.5% career), low strikeout rate (18.7% career), nice power (.184 ISO career), and a good line drive rate (20.3%). He’s cut down on reaching for balls off the plate (18.6% this year, 21.9% career) and shown good advancement as a hitter. Other than a slow half-month, there’s not much to dislike about Smith. He’s even a plus defender in left field.

Because this is a team that’s still in it, it’s hard to handicap the playing time going forward this year. They’ll probably play the ‘hot hand,’ which means that CarGo has the short-term advantage. Long-term, though, all four (and possibly five) of these outfielders deserve major league jobs. A trade is the Rockies’ future, and probably should have been in their immediate past.

It seems as though outfielder Lastings Milledge has been around forever, doesn’t it? Despite just turning 24 in April, the intriguing yet infuriating Milledge is now on his third major league club.

The 12th overall selection in the 2003 amateur draft, Milledge was once the darling of the New York Mets system. A fantastic athlete with a pretty good idea of what he was doing at the dish, Milledge also possessed more power than his 6-0, 190 pound frame suggested. He quickly climbed up the prospect ranks, as Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Mets system in 2005 and 2006.

By the time the ’06 season rolled around, Milledge was a 21 year-old posting an outstanding .277/.388/.440 line at AAA Norfolk. Sure, his base stealing efficiency needed a ton of work (13 swiped in 23 attempts), but it’s difficult to complain about a center fielder with a good eye (12.3 BB%) and doubles power (.163 ISO). Milledge’s first foray into the majors later that season was not a smashing success (.241/.310/.380 in 185 PA) and apparently veteran players weren’t lining up to be his friend, but Lastings looked like a fixture in Queens.

Milledge made the Mets out of spring training in 2007, but soon found himself back in Norfolk. He suffered a foot injury and got caught up in the ceaseless New York tabloids for a rap song he appeared in, but he did take 206 trips to the plate for the big league club. All things considered, Milledge’s success was promising. His control of the strike zone wasn’t superb (6.6 BB%, 22.9 K%), but he hit .272/.341/.446, good for a .174 ISO in his age-22 season.

However, Milledge fell out of favor with the Mets, and the Amazin’s shipped their former prized pupil to the Nationals in November of ’07 for a seemingly underwhelming package of catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church. The move looked like a steal for the Nats, who acquired a young, up-the-middle talent for a light-hitting backstop and a platoon-type outfielder.

Milledge got his first chance at everyday playing time in the bigs in 2008, taking 587 plate appearances in Washington. While his .268/.330/.402 line wasn’t bad, it also wasn’t the sort of progress that one would hope for from such a highly-touted player.

That keen plate discipline exhibited at Norfolk failed to manifest, as Milledge walked just 6.8% of the time. Lastings offered at 31.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (well above the 25% MLB average) and put himself behind in the count often. Milledge’s First-Pitch Strike% was 61.2%, compared to the 58.6% big league average.

He didn’t put a charge into the ball (.134 ISO), while also suggesting that the whole center field thing? It wasn’t gonna work out (Lastings’ UZR/150 in the middle garden was an abysmal -20.1). While it’s likely that he’s not that bad out there, it’s not like Milledge’s minor league work in center offered great promise of a turnaround.

While he opened the season with Washington in 2009, Milledge soon found himself back in AAA after a poor start. He suffered a broken finger that required surgery, then was shipped to Pittsburgh along with Joel Hanrahan for UZR demi-god Nyjer Morgan and lefty reliever Sean “the Pirates are a joke, thank god I’m with the Nats now” Burnett.

Lastings’ digit is now healed, and he was recently recalled by the Bucs to take over the everyday left field spot. Milledge’s acquisition has often been hailed as a great buy-low opportunity for Pittsburgh, as the team was said to surrender “only” a fourth outfielder in Morgan. That claim likely sells Mr. Morgan short- his decent bat and superb range make him a perfectly acceptable regular– but the Pirates did attempt to sell high on Nyjer while shooting for the stars with Milledge.

With Milledge not projecting to be the asset once imagined in the field or on the base paths (his career stolen base percentage in the minors is 68.7%, and 67.4% in the majors), he will need to recapture that strike-zone judgment that seemingly skipped town when he left the Mets organization. He’s a below-average fielder playing a corner spot, where the cumulative line is .266/.341/.434. Can Milledge meet that standard? Most pre-season projections concluded that he would be in the ball park:

CHONE: .279/.350/.435
Oliver: .271/.333/.429
ZiPS: .280/.343/.452

Milledge is not a lost cause by any means, but he’s far from the sure-fire asset that he projected to be just a few short years ago. Lastings will need to make some lasting changes in his plate approach if he wishes to shed the bust label in the ‘Burgh.

There’s been a lot of work done on BABIP by the esteemed writers on this site as well as The Hardball Times, so it’s not suprising that Derek Carty’s July 10th release of a simple expected BABIP calculator flew under the radar a bit. It shouldn’t have. The calculator allows us fantasy types to say with a little more certainty what sort of BABIP a particular player should expect.

The ‘simple’ in the calculator meant that instead of using the more complicated and nuanced four-component speed score, users have to use the more brute method of inputting stolen bases. This may be a considerable flaw, allbeit an easily corrected one. Taking a look at this threesome will provide us some questions about BABIP in general. It certainly looks like sometimes rotten luck lasts a whole year.

Jose Lopez – Midway through June, Lopez was languishing was a sub-.250 batting average and little power. Most were questioning if his breakout 2008 was just a fluke. His BABIP, though, was unnaturally low, and the balls began to bounce his way. He ended June with a .329/.325/.592 slash line that seemed to be a harbinger of further success. Unfortunately, his July slash line (.269/.299/.441) has been a lot less inspiring. The simple xBABIP calculator pegs his expected BABIP at .301, which seems fine at first glance. He has an average line drive percentage (18.1%) and profiles mostly as he did last year during his great year. But then look at his yearly BABIP totals, and something looks fishy. Since 2005, those BABIPs have read: .276, .312, .269, .311, .266. It seems that he has good and bad years as much as he has good and bad months. Perhaps a good year is just one where the number of good months outweigh the bad months. And maybe 2009 is ‘just a bad year.’

Vernon Wells – Wells rode a .311/.329/.514 July back into respectability and is now on pace for a career high in stolen bases. Despite his low 14.9% line drive percentage, the xBABIP calculator likes him for a .302 BABIP. In the face of his .294 career BABIP and his career-best four-component speed score, this xBABIP seems more correct than his current .278 number. Maybe the title of the article gave you a heads up, but Wells is the proud poppa of his own pendulum-like BABIP. Here are his yearly totals, since his first full year in 2002: .288, .322, .286, .275, .313, .265, .299, .278. I’m not really suggesting that that Lopez and Wells are ‘due’ for bad years, but it does seem to follow that these are two players whose value is often tied up into BABIPs, and who often put together full years with sub-par BABIPs. Caution, at the very least, is in order when thinking of buying low in these cases.

Ichiro Suzuki – Suzuki is merely here because of tendency to ‘break’ BABIP predictors. His yearly BABIP totals oscillate a little, too, but there’s hardly a year that can be characterized as ‘poor:’ .371, .347, .333, .401, .319, .350, .390, .337, .387. When .319 is a poor BABIP for you, you don’t belong in this trio. The simple calculator can’t quite handle Ichiro’s legendary BABIP control (if such a thing exists), predicting a .328 number for Ichiro which would be the second-worst of his career. With his history, it doesn’t seem smart to predict a dive in his BABIP to get to that .328 number.

The lesson seems to be that there is still work to be done on xBABIP, and I doubt anyone would argue that they’ve figured it out completely. The work to date has been impressive, but there certainly seems to be more we can understand. Why is it that some players have BABIPs that normalize within a year, and other players seem to have BABIPs that only normalize over an entire career? It may only be a question of sample size, but there seems to be something more here. At first glance, I’d have to think that contact rate could be included in any expected BABIP model, but I’ve only just begun my journey into the numbers.

The Jeff Francoeur hype machine never ceases to amaze me. The new meme is that Francoeur is producing because he is freed of the pressure of playing in front of the hometown crowds in Atlanta.

Now, make no mistake, Francoeur is off to a good start and has produced since being acquired by the Mets just prior to the All-Star break. In 12 games for New York, Francoeur has posted a .327-2-14-2-0 fantasy line.

But let us set aside that the only two runs he has scored have come on home runs (that probably has more to do with the Mets’ offense than it does with his zero walks) and instead focus on the two categories that Francoeur is doing well: AVG and RBIs.

Francoeur’s .327 AVG comes with a .333 BABIP, which is 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. He made his reputation in the first 70 games of his career, when Francoeur posted a .341 BABIP. In 2007, when he drove in 105 runs and batted .293, Francoeur had a .342 mark. To have a good AVG for fantasy, Francoeur needs a very high BABIP.

While he has shown the capability to post those high marks, we have to counter that with the .286 mark in 2006, the .277 mark last year and the .281 mark in 82 games with Atlanta this season.

Meanwhile, 14 RBIs in 12 games is a nice streak. But while some might point to this as a reflection of Francoeur’s ability to come through with men on base, more rational people will see that it is a hot streak coinciding with very fortunate RBI opportunities.

In just over half of his plate appearances with the Mets, Francoeur has batted with runners on base (27-52). If we look at the three hitters the Mets hoped would make up the heart of their order, we see this is pretty typical. David Wright (219-421), Carlos Beltran (142-280) and Carlos Delgado (59-112) all had between 51-53% of their PA with runners on base.

Where we see the difference is with the breakdowns of where the runners were on base. The following numbers are from Baseball Prospectus, with OBI% defined as “Others Batted In Percentage — the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter’s plate appearances. OBI is distinguished from RBI (runs batted in) in that OBI does not credit the batter for his own scoring on a home run. In otherwords OBI = RBI – HR”

The contrast between Francoeur and Wright is striking, with 60 percent of Francoeur’s runners on base being in scoring position. Francoeur being hot in this stretch has led to a 30 percent rate of driving others in, a mark that would easily lead the majors. Currently, Bobby Abreu has the top overall mark with a 22.3 percent mark. In 2008, David DeJesus led the way by driving in 21.5 percent of other runners.

By contrast, this season with the Braves Francoeur drove in a little over 12 percent of other runners in, as only 49 percent of runners on base were in scoring position. Below are Francoeur’s RBI numbers in previous years with the Braves.

Prior to last season, we see Francoeur being pretty stable in his OBI%, with the two higher percentages in 2005 and 2007 corresponding to the years where he had higher BABIPs.

Since joining the Mets, Francoeur is swinging at more pitches in the strike zone (88%-80.3%) and making more contact on those swings (92.4%-88.1%). But even in our small Mets sample, we see he is still swinging at 35.5 percent of pitches outside the zone and is still having trouble with harder pitches.

Pitch Type Values shows him with nearly identical poor rates versus both fastballs and sliders per 100 pitches while with the Mets as what he did earlier with the Braves. Apparently, he has done most of his damage in New York versus curve balls and changeups. This should be a pretty simple thing for advance scouts to identify and for pitchers to implement versus Francoeur going forward.

Francoeur has been an asset for the Mets since the team acquired him. But do not think he can be the same thing for your fantasy team. Neither the 60 percent of baserunners in scoring position nor the 30 percent of other runners driven in nor the .333 BABIP is likely to last for the rest of the season.

The Seattle Mariners organization continued its aggressive promotion of prospects this past weekend when it promoted outfielder Michael Saunders from triple-A. The move adds yet another solid defensive player to the outfield mix, which already includes Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ryan Langerhans (Endy Chavez is on the 60-day DL).

A native Canadian, Saunders was an 11th-round selection out of a British Columbia high school in 2004, but he spent one season at a Florida community college before entering pro ball in ’05. His biggest strength as a defensive player is his strong arm, which could make him a solid right-fielder if his power develops as projected. He can play center field, as well, where his range is considered average.

At the plate, Saunders has shown a consistent ability to hit between .270 and .300. His power output has increased each of the past four seasons, with his ISO rising each year from .106 in 2006 to .234 in 2009. Saunders has seen his walk rate dip a bit in the past two seasons (down to 9.2 BB% in 2009), but he has trimmed almost 10% off of his strikeout rate this year.

Early on in his career, the left-handed hitter actually performed better against southpaws than right-handers, but that has changed since he started facing better pitching in double-A and triple-A. Saunders has struggled against lefties over the past two seasons, although he is not completely useless against them (.247/.312/.400 vs LHP compared to .344/.411/.620 vs RHP in ’09).

On the base paths, Saunders has started to slow down the running game as his body has filled out a bit. His stolen base totals have dropped from 29 in 2007 to 12 to just six in 2009. Saunders has always had average speed, but his instincts allowed him to steal 20-plus bases each season and he should still be good for five to 10 a year at the Major League level.

Overall, Saunders currently shows the potential to produce a 15 homer/15 stolen base season in a full season. In his prime, though, he should be able to top the 20-homer mark, but the stolen bases will decrease with age. His playing time could be affected by the fact that he is a left-handed batter, just like Ichiro, Langerhans, Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. Of the outfielders currently on the big-league roster, only Gutierrez swings from the right side.

Maybe I’ve been surfing the web a little too much. Maybe becoming Stewart Cink’s 559,250th follower on Twitter has addled my brain. But today I thought I would take a look at three players whose last names begin with W, and do so for the win, or not, as the case may be. Hey, at least this intro was a little better than my last one, eh?

Josh Willingham – The offense around him is not good. Eric Seidman pointed out at the beginning of June that all of his nine home runs were solo home runs – threatening the ‘record’ for solo home run percentage set by Curtis Granderson in 2007 (21 out of 23). Well, Willingham has finally hit a non-solo home run – but only one. So you probably don’t pick Willingham up for RBI, but it’s also starting to look like his mini power breakout is for real. He’s shown the on-base skills before (12.9% BB% this year, 11.2% career), and his .317 BABIP (.306 career) does not portend a quick and painful slump in the future. Could the new power be as simple as the fact that his new park is helping him out? Park factors are not always stable from year to year, so this year’s half season, in which Florida’s stadium is giving up more home runs than Washington’s, is less relevant when put against that same stadium’s consistent pitcher-friendly park factors. Take last year, for instance, and Washington’s stadium gave up 10% more home runs and doubles as Willingham’s old park. Of course, his .545 slugging percentage is over 10% better than his career slugging percentage in Florida (.432), but Willingham is 30 and could easily be peaking this year. Wonky math aside, Willingham will get his chance to prove that he is who he thinks he is – in Washington or elsewhere.

Josh Whitesell – The Diamondbacks finally got savvy to their lost season and began to look to the future at first base. With Conor Jackson still laid low by his mysterious illness, and with Tony Clark shown the door (and over to the Mets perhaps?), Whitesell gets his chance. His consistently high strikeout rates in the minors (ranging from 22% to 26% before this year) have led to inconsistent batting averages (ranging from .264 to .328). But this year he finally cut the rate down below 20% and had a good followup to last year’s career best .328/.425/.568 AAA debut. He’s only two years younger than incumbent Chad Tracy, but Tracy’s declining OPS and difficulty staying on the field are both reasons that Whitesell may have a window to take over the position if he starts out hot. His 23% strikeout rate in his 62 major-league at-bats this year bodes well, even if he hasn’t shown the power yet.

Cory Wade – Wade’s story is a sad story that we’ve all heard before: Young, promising reliever debuts on a veteran team led by Joe Torre, who goes on to ride that young arm to the postseason without a look at the usage stats and patterns or a care for the reliever’s future. Call Scott Proctor for details, but Wade is on the DL with a sore shoulder and it all sounds too familiar. With all the research about starters’ usage and their development, perhaps a little more attention could go to the blue-collar workers out in the pen. Torre is, once again, using his relievers more than any other manager in the league, and Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario are the new Cory Wades. They, like Wade, are among league leaders in relief appearances. Like Wade (71.1 IP), Torre’s new toys are on pace to rack up big innings totals (Troncoso – 102 IP pace, Belisario – 86 IP pace). Like he did with Wade and Proctor before, will Torre break his newest toys?

Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

Andruw Jones bashed three home runs last evening, taking his total up to 14 long balls for the season. Jones’ triple-slash line rests at .250/.348/.581, with a wOBA of .392. On a per-at-bat basis, Andruw has by far been Texas’ most productive hitter. Can you believe this is the same fellow who had to settle for a one-year, $500K deal this past winter?

One year ago, Jones was public enemy number one in Los Angeles. The ink was barely dry on the Curacao native’s two-year, $36.2M pact before the questions started rolling in. Jones looked to be following the David Wells training regimen, and a balky knee bothered him throughout the season. Jones produced one of the most execrable lines that you’ll ever see while in L.A. In 238 trips to the dish, Andruw “hit” .158/.256/.249, which translates to a wOBA of .234. For reference, Tony Pena Jr.’s career wOBA is .238.

Jones’ plummet was difficult to foresee. He entered the 2008 campaign at a listed age of 31. Subjectively, a player with a broad-based skill set such as Andruw’s would seem to be a good candidate to age well. During a “down” 2007 season, he was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, a near-All-Star level of performance. Yet, he just couldn’t hit anything. It scarcely mattered what the opposition decided to toss, Jones would be headed back to the dugout accompanied by a smattering of boo’s:

Jones’ runs/100 pitches, 2008:

Fastball: -1.01
Slider: -1.38
Cutter: -7.67
Curveball: -3.49
Changeup: -2.86
Splitter: -7.51

Despite his macabre work on the West Coast, the Rangers decided to give Jones an opportunity to make the club. Texas’ no-risk acquisition has rewarded them, big time. Jones had severe issues making contact last season (36.4 K%), but he has reduced his K rate to a more reasonable 25% this season. After grounding out 47.8% of the time with the Dodgers (well above his 41.4% average dating back to 2002), Andruw has rolled over the ball 36.9% in 2009. There’s a big rebound in his number of flyballs hit (38.8% in ’08 to 46.7% in ’09).

Jones has jumped on fastballs this year, with a run value of +2.14/100 pitches. He’s also in the black against sliders (+0.84) and changeups (+0.90), while posting negative values against cutters (-0.52) and curves (-2.36).

In less than 200 trips to the plate, with limited time in the field, Andruw has already managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR. Jones has some relatively minor performance bonuses based on PA’s, but he has delivered a massive return on investment for the Rangers. It’s probably too late to snatch Jones off the waiver wire, but he looks locked in right now. Expecting this level of offense is likely unreasonable. But if he continues to hit anywhere near this well, the Rangers are simply going to have to find more AB’s for the former Braves star. Jones stumbled badly last year, but he’s back to being an asset.