According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, free agent OF Jason Bay has come to terms on a four-year, $66 million deal with the New York Mets, pending a physical. Bay’s contract reportedly includes a vesting option for 2014, too.

Bay, 31, was actually Mets property back in 2002. The former Gonzaga star was a 22nd round pick of the Expos in 2000. He was dealt to the Mets in March of 2002, only to be traded to the Padres in July of ’02 and then the Pirates in August of 2003. The Bucs shipped Bay to the Red Sox as part of a three-team deal in July of 2008.

The 6-2 righty batter can mash, but his defensive shortcomings do dent his value. Bay has a career -8 UZR/150 in left field, and his recent work has been even less appealing.

There’s a lot to like about the bat, though. Bay has a career 137 wRC+, meaning his offensive production has been 37 percent above average once we account for park and league factors. He suffered a down 2007 season (97 wRC+) as he battled a knee injury, but Bay bashed to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in 2008 and a 142 wRC+ in 2009.

A highly disciplined hitter, Bay has walked nearly 13% of the time during his big league career, with a 19.4 outside swing percentage (the MLB average has been around 25 percent in recent years, though it was lower in 2004 and 2005).

His career ISO is .240, and checked in at .269 in 2009. Bay isn’t a big stolen base threat, but he snatched 13 bags in 16 attempts this past year. The Canadian has crushed fastballs (+1.70 runs/100 pitches), with positive run values against changeups (+0.46) and sliders (+0.42) as well. Curves haven’t been his kryptonite, but he’s at -0.21 runs per 100 tosses against the pitch.

How will Bay fare in Citi Field? It’s hard to make any bold conclusions based on just one year of park data, but Citi did play like a pitcher’s park in its inaugural season. According to the Bill James 2010 Handbook, Citi Field depressed run scoring eight percent compared to a neutral ball park. Home run production was stunted by four percent. Lefties (93 HR park factor) felt the effects more than righties (99 HR park factor).

That’s not as hospitable as Fenway, which has increased run scoring by 11 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Homers are hard to come by because of the Green Monster (91 HR park factor), but doubles are plentiful. Fenway has boosted two-baggers by 45 percent since 2007.

Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool gives the option of taking a batter’s line and adjusting it, based on the offensive level of the league (NL or AL) and the run scoring environment of the ball park. According to the Play Index Tool, here’s what Bay’s 2009 season would have looked like, had it occurred in Citi Field:

Actual: .267/.384/.537, .269 ISO
Adjusted: .265/.380/.535, .270 ISO

The net impact doesn’t appear to be huge. On one hand, Bay is going from a clear hitter’s venue to a park that played as pitcher-friendly in 2009. But on the other, he’s moving back to the NL. Derek Carty of The Hardball Times showed last off-season that batters going from the AL to the NL receive a slight boost in contact rate, home run per fly ball percentage, singles and doubles.

Whether Bay is worth four years and $66M remains to be seen. But as for 2010, his move to Queens shouldn’t change his fantasy value tremendously. Luckily, you don’t have to worry about how a 34 or 35 year-old Bay will produce.

In 2009, Cincinnati’s outfielders featured lackluster lumber. George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr. they were not. Collectively, Reds fly catchers posted a .318 wOBA, second-worst in the N.L. Considering that the Padres (.317 wOBA) play in a park that’s anathema to offense, it’s safe to say that Cincy’s outfielders were the least potent in the Senior Circuit.

However, better days are on the horizon. The Reds have a plethora of intriguing outfield options, some already in the majors and others just around the corner in the minors. Here’s a rundown of who may be guarding the gaps at the GAP in 2010 and beyond.

In the majors

Jay Bruce

The Boss entered 2009 with plenty of fantasy hoopla, but his final .223/.303/.470 triple-slash looks disappointing. Or does it? At age 22, Bruce walked more, struck out less and hit for a near-.250 ISO. The potent lefty batter swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, took at cut at more in-zone offerings and made more contact. In other words, Bruce matured at the dish.

His BABIP was shockingly low, at .222. Yes, his line drive rate (13 percent) was also down considerably. But even so, Bruce’s Expected BABIP, based on HR, strikeouts, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, was .294. Bruce turns 23 in April. With his wrist healed, he’s poised to wreak havoc on pitchers in 2010. The fans seem well aware of Bruce’s talents, projecting a .271/.343/.497 line for Cincy’s right fielder.

Drew Stubbs

The 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs made a favorable first impression in Cincinnati following his call-up last August. The University of Texas alumnus turned in a .267/.323/.439 line in 196 plate appearances (101 wRC+), swiping 10 bags in 14 attempts. Stubbs displayed a surprising amount of pop in the majors, with 8 HR and a .172 ISO.

A 6-4, 200 pound righty batter, Stubbs has long been adored by scouts for his range in center field. His TotalZone defensive numbers are glowing, too. Stubbs’ bat, however, has been subject to much debate.

While displaying a keen eye at the plate, Stubbs had issues making contact with the Long Horns. Those swing-and-miss tendencies have manifested in pro ball, with the gifted defender whiffing in 23.4% of his PA in the minors. His big frame hasn’t translated to a lot extra-base thump (career .132 ISO).

However, Stubbs continues to work the count well (11.9 BB%), and his base stealing has gone from haphazard (23 SB, 15 CS in Low-A in 2007) to fantastic (46 SB, 8 CS in AAA in 2009). As a plus CF with plate discipline and quick feet, the 25 year-old looks like a quality starter for the Reds. His base thievery makes him relevant in fantasy circles.

Chris Dickerson

Dickerson’s 2009 season was cut short by shoulder and ankle injuries. In between the ailments, the 28 year-old performed up to expectations: he worked the count (13.3 BB%), punched out often (25.9 K%) and nabbed some bases (11 SB, 3 CS). Dickerson didn’t put a charge in the ball in the lower minors, but his work at AAA (.180 ISO) and with the Reds in 2008 gave some hope that the 6-3, 225 pound batter had found his power stroke. Alas, a near-fifty percent GB rate in 2009 produced a .098 ISO.

Dickerson straddles the line between highly useful 4th outfielder and acceptable starter (Chris helps himself with quality outfield D). Given his issues with lefty pitching in the minors (career .223/.328/.319 line), he figures to take on righties in a platoon role in 2010. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, you could do worse.

Wladimir Balentien

Acquired from Seattle last July for RHP Robert Manuel, Wlad has failed to translate his minor league feats of strength to the big leagues.

Balentien was Curacao’s version of Jeff Francoeur in the low minors, swinging at anything within a five mile radius of home plate. However, the big righty batter cleaned up his plate approach in AAA (10.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .283/.359/.534 line).

Unfortunately, Balentien has been carved up in the majors. In 559 career PA, Wlad has a weak .221/.281/.374 line, with a 72 wRC+. He has been merely below-average against fastballs and changeups. But breaking stuff has baffled him entirely (-3.12 runs/100 against sliders, -1.5 vs. curveballs). As a result, Balentien’s 70% MLB contact rate is miles away from the 80-81% average.

You might think Wlad would be a decent platoon mate for Dickerson, but Balentien has a reverse platoon split. At 25, Balentien is entering a critical point in his career. He needs to tighten his strike zone and avoid looking like Pedro Cerrano against stuff that bends and breaks.

Laynce Nix

Outrighted by the Reds during the fall, Laynce was recently brought back to Cincy on a minor league deal. The 30 year-old lefty hitter is coming off of a season in which he popped 15 HR and posted a .236 ISO.

Once you factor in Nix’s hack-tastic approach (6.6 BB%) and favorable home ballpark, though, his offense was eight percent below the league average (92 wRC+; his career mark is a paltry 74). As a good defender who occasionally makes some loud contact against righties, Nix is a decent extra outfielder. But he’s not a fantasy option. If you’re stuck playing a guy with a career .277 OBP, you’re screwed.

Willy Taveras

What happens when a batting average-dependent player, with zero power or patience, doesn’t have those bloops and ducksnorts fall in? Ask Taveras. The 28 year-old was merely very bad at the plate in 2008 (74 wRC+). But in 2009, horror ensued.

Taveras’ bat was 51 percent worse than the league average (49 wRC+) as he battled a quad strain. Sure, he stole some bases (25 SB, 6 CS). But Taveras is the exact type of player that fantasy players should avoid. He gives production in one category, at the expense of severely hampering you in many others. Stubbs has Taveras’ speed and actually has a clue in the batter’s box. Willy figures to be either glued to the bench or in another city come spring.

Coming soon

Chris Heisey

A 17th round pick out of Division III Messiah (PA), Heisey vaulted up Cincinnati’s prospect list with an impressive 2009 season.

A career .298/.369/.460 hitter in the minors, Heisey possesses a broad, if short of star-caliber skill-set. He hits for some power (.162 ISO career, and a .214 ISO at AA in 2009), but he’s not a hulking over-the-fence threat. The right batter picks his SB spots well (career 84.3 SB%), though he wouldn’t be described as a burner. Heisey gets positive reviews for his outfield defense, but he’s likely a corner outfielder in the majors. The well-rounded prospect could be more selective at the dish: his career walk rate is a little over eight percent.

Baseball America said it best in its 2010 Reds Top 10 Prospects list: “Heisey could be termed a ‘cheap five-tool player.'” The 25 year-old isn’t far away from making his big league debut. He’s no star, but Heisey and his blend of talents could figure into Cincy’s left field picture.

Todd Frazier

At this point, few doubt that the former Rutgers star is going to pack a punch with his bat. The question is, where will his name be penciled in on the diamond? A 6-3, 215 pound righty hitter, Frazier has trekked all over the field.

He’s not going to stick at shortstop. The Reds had him pinballing from left field to first base to second base in 2009, with a couple appearances at the hot corner for good measure. Brandon Phillips, a plus defender at 2B who’s signed for two more years (with a club option for 2012), doesn’t figure to be moving. Scott Rolen is Reds property through 2012 following his restructured deal with the club.

As such, LF appears to be the place where Frazier (a career .296/.367/.491 minor league hitter) breaks into the majors. “Arm bar” or not, his bat figures to be potent.

Position switch?

Juan Francisco

The 6-2 lefty hitter made his major league debut last season, and has played almost exclusively at 3B in the minors. However, Francisco is tipping the scales at 210+ pounds already. His long-term viability at the position is in question. The 22 year-old has ample pop (.201 minor league ISO), but he has to do a better job of laying off junk balls. He has taken a free pass in just 3.8% of his PA, with a 23.4% K rate. Francisco would be best served spending a full season in AAA, lest big league pitchers take advantage of his eyes-to-ankles strike zone.

Yonder Alonso

A first-round pick in the 2008 draft out of Miami, Alonso has a sweet lefty swing and has batted .293/.378/.459 on the farm. His ’09 season was slowed by a broken hamate bone, but Alonso still reached AA. While Yonder is not far away, there’s a sizeable road block at first base in Joey Votto. Sadly, the 6-2, 215 pound Alonso runs like tree sap in winter. Baseball America said “Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.” Perhaps the Reds will put him in left field, stomaching his defensive mishaps in exchange for his quality lumber.

The Oakland Athletics recently added to the club’s jumble of outfielders, signing free agent Coco Crisp to a one-year, $4.75 million deal. Covelli’s contract has a $5.75M club option for 2011, with a $500K buyout.

The 30 year-old switch-hitter is coming off of a 2009 season that was curtailed by injuries to both shoulders. Crisp logged just 215 plate appearances, playing his last game on June 12th. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, then had a procedure to clean up some damage in his left shoulder a short time later.

Much of Coco’s value is tied up in his legs. He’s a wonderful defender, having posted a career +5.8 UZR/150 in center field and a +23.5 UZR/150 in left field. So, he figures to be a favorite among Oakland’s pitching staff. But what about his offensive game?

It’s wise not to put a lot of stock in 200-some PA, but Crisp had an odd-ball year at the plate in 2009. His .228/.336/.378 line looks weak, but he suffered from a lousy .247 BABIP (his career average is .309). Coco posted a .150 ISO (.130 career average), while drawing a walk in a career-high 13.9 percent of his plate appearances (7.7 career average).

Crisp has some interesting plate discipline trends going on. His walk rate has climbed every year since 2004. The increases from ’04 to ’06 were negligible (from 6.8 percent to 7 percent). But he walked 8.7% in 2007 and 8.8% in 2008, and took plenty of pitches with an otherwise hack-happy Royals team in ’09.

Despite those previously low walk totals, Crisp has never really been a free swinger. His career outside swing percentage is 18.8, well below the 25 percent major league average. Instead, the one-time Cardinals prospect is seeing a lesser percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone:

Crisp’s In-Zone Percentage, 2002-2009 (MLB average that season in parentheses)

2002: 56.2 (54.6), +3% above the MLB average
2003: 56.1 (51.4), +9%
2004: 57.8 (55.1), +5%
2005: 56.1 (53.8), +4%
2006: 54.8 (52.6), +4%
2007: 51.9 (50.3), +3%
2008: 52.2 (51.1), +2%
2009: 50.9 (49.3), +3%

He’s still getting more pitches within the zone than most, but the relative difference compared to the big league average has lessened. Perhaps because of his bum shoulders, Crisp didn’t swing at much of anything in 2009. His 41.4 Swing% was his lowest mark since 2002. The average swing rate in 2009 was 45.2 percent.

Overall, Crisp has been a slightly below league-average batter during the course of his career, with a wRC+ of 97 (his offense, once adjusted for park and league, is about three percent below average).

He continued to display good wheels in ’09, swiping 13 bags in 15 attempts. Crisp notched at least 20 steals in each season from 2006 to 2008, and has nabbed bases at an 81.4% clip since ’06. Some guys swipe 20+ bags while actually harming their teams (Troy Tulowitzki is a huge asset, but Colorado might want to Super Glue his spikes to first base).

Not Crisp, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, Coco rated as +1.26 runs above average in limited action in 2009. He was -0.07 in 2008, +2.15 in 2007 and +1.34 in 2006.

Early word is that Crisp will man center field, flanked by Rajai Davis in left field and Ryan Sweeney in right field.

Davis (+11.3 UZR/150 in the OF) and Sweeney (+17.1) also possess gazelle-like range, meaning few balls should drop in the Coliseum’s outfield pasture.

However, the purported arrangement would leave Scott Hairston, an average hitter (100 wRC+) and not too shabby a fly catcher himself (+6.3 UZR/150 in the OF), without a defined role. That’s to say nothing of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and the recently acquired Michael Taylor. Tough luck, Eric Patterson.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Oakland’s outfield options:

Crisp: .256/.333/.373, .313 wOBA, 19 SB/5 CS
Davis: .267/.326/.372, .309 wOBA, 31 SB/11 CS
Sweeney: .280/.344/.396, .327 wOBA, 6 SB/5 CS
Hairston: .251/.307/.436, .319 wOBA, 4 SB/2 CS
Cunningham: .255/.318/.401, .314 wOBA, 10 SB/6 CS
Buck: .256/.331/.403, .322 wOBA, 4 SB/2CS
Patterson: .260/.324/.400, .317 wOBA, 24 SB/7 CS
Taylor: .264/.317/.427, .322 wOBA, 9 SB/6 CS

With plus defense and an OK bat, Crisp projects to be around a two-win player in 2010 (the fans currently peg him at +2.1 WAR). For $5.25 million in guaranteed cash, that’s a good deal in a vacuum. But the question most people have is, what does Coco add that Sweeney and Davis already don’t? Perhaps a trade is in the offing. Or, maybe the A’s just don’t want to count on Hairston or Buck’s health and want Cunningham and Taylor to log more time in the minors.

Whatever the reason, Crisp looks to be set as a starter. His speed makes him a late-round consideration in mixed leagues. Though Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are groundball-oriented starters, Oakland’s batch of young arms looks a bit more appealing with three center field-worthy defenders patrolling the outfield.

With Christmas just a day away, it’s time for some last minute gift shopping. However, not everything that a fantasy baseball owner may want is available for purchase. Here is a list of items that all fantasy owners want, but are outside of their control.

1. A starting job for Scott Podsednik

Steals are always a problem in fantasy baseball. But if Scott Podsednik can find a starting job this offseason, there may be one more source of steals out on the market. In 587 trips to the plate for the White Sox last year, Podsednik stole 30 bases in 43 attempts, and hit .304 with 75 runs scored. Now that the White Sox have acquired Juan Pierre, Podsednik is out of a gig. Surely someone will have a home for the man who stole 70 bags in 2004, but will that home include a starting gig? One can only dream.

2. Russell Martin to get his act together

In 2007, Martin hit .293 with 19 homers and 21 steals, making him one of the most hyped catchers going into 2008. He took a small step back in ’08, hitting .280 with 13 homers and 18 steals. While it was a down year, he was still well liked going into drafts last year. But, in 2009, he hit .250 with 7 homers and 11 steals, making his fantasy season a forgetful one. To be fair to Martin, his line drive rate has increased in both 2008 and 2009, and his .285 BABIP in ’09 says he should bounce back in 2010. But, the loss of power is concerning, even if he can post a solid average and steal some bases.

3. Adrian Beltre to sign with the Red Sox

With the Mike Lowell deal falling through (for now), this looks like a pipe dream. He never got along with Safeco field, never hitting more than 26 homers in his 5 years in Seattle. If he moves to Fenway, one can only imagine the numbers he would put up. I’d be willing to bet on a 30 HR, .280 year from the third baseman.

What else would you like for Christmas this year that you can’t control?

Travis Snider is one of the best high school bats from the 2006 draft and he’s risen awfully quickly through Toronto’s minor league system. Snider shot through three levels in 2008 and finished that season with the big league club. He wrapped up 2008 with a .301/.338/.466 line in 73 at-bats with the Jays. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

This led to some lofty expectations for the 21-year-old Snider in 2009. He started the season with the big league club and had a rocky 99 at-bats in April and May. Snider hit .242/.292/.394 with three home runs and struck out in 25% of his at-bats over that span. The Jays demoted Snider to the minors so he could hone up on his skills and get his bat on track.

Snider would spend the next three months with the Jays Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate. He would mash to the tune of .337/.431/.663 (27% strikeout rate) with 14 home runs over 175 at-bats. Snider played a nice hitters park and also experienced some renown hitters parks on the road but his home/road splits in Triple-A are negligible. He bashed at home (1.045 OPS) and did even better (1.123 OPS) on the road.

In the middle of August the Blue Jays summoned the hulking 6-foot and 235 pound Snider back up to the big leagues. Snider showed some improvement in the power department and over his final 142 at-bats he hit .239/.351/.437 with six home runs accompanied with a 37% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is very alarming.

The lefthanded swinging Snider has plus power and projects to hit for average down the road but he’s always been prone to the strikeout and has struggled with lefties at the upper levels. After hitting a slender .233/.295/.310 in 116 AA and AAA at-bats versus lefties in 2008 (credit Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook for that fact) Snider improved in 2009 at Las Vegas. There he hit .396/.473/.667 in only 48 at-bats but his big league showing against them (.225/.333/.275) in 40 at-bats points towards much needed improvement albeit the small sample sizes.

2010 will be Snider’s 22-year-old season and he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Snider is going to be a corner stone during the Jays rebuilding project and it’s a given fact that he’s going to strike out a lot but his plus power is extremely tantalizing.

Snider should be allowed to develop at the big league level during the entire 2010 season. His troubles with lefties and alarming strikeout rate which steadily declined when he was recalled in August point towards growing pains in 2010. While he may be good for 20-25 big flies next season I foresee his strikeouts being a big issue and don’t expect him to hit any higher than .260-.270. The whiffs and his below average speed and thick lower half will lower his BABIP from the shockingly high minor league BABIPs he compiled.

Snider’s a big piece of Toronto’s future and I expect good production from him eventually but he’s got a lot of work to do in 2010 at the big league level. Keep him off your draft boards for now and try nabbing him off of the waiver wire during the season and ride out his hot streaks before the strikeouts cool him down.

Fresh off of the best season of his career, RHP Javier Vazquez is headed back to the Bronx as part of a five-player deal. Along with lefty Boone Logan, Vazquez has been traded to the Yankees for a package including RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Michael Dunn and OF Melky Cabrera.

Later today, we’ll take a look at the implications of the trade for Vazquez. For now, let’s take a look at what the deal means for Cabrera.

The 25 year-old switch-hitter was signed by the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic back in 2001. Cabrera rapidly rose through the farm system, reaching the majors as a 20 year-old back in 2005. His career minor league line is .296/.349/.420. Melky didn’t show a lot of might at the plate (.124 ISO) and he swung from his heels, walking in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances. He rarely whiffed, with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate.

Getting regular playing time with the Yankees in 2006, Cabrera held up surprisingly well. His wRC+ was 101, meaning he was slightly above-average with the lumber once park and league factors are considered. Melky’s work in 2007 and 2008, by contrast, was disappointing. His wRC+ dipped to 91 in ’07 and checked in at a measly 71 in ’08. Cabrera’s plate discipline eroded:

2006: 10.9 BB%, 22.3 Outside-Swing%, 63.5 Z-Swing%
2007: 7.3 BB%, 29.5 O-Swing%, 65.8 Z-Swing%
2008: 6.5 BB%, 28.4 O-Swing%, 63.1 Z-Swing%

(the MLB average for O-Swing% is 25, and the average for Z-Swing% is about 66 percent)

Melky’s walk rate dropped considerably, as he offered at more pitches off the plate in ’07 and ’08. He was tentative against pitches within the zone in 2008, giving him the unwelcome double-whammy of swinging at more balls and taking more strikes.

Cabrera’s power remained mild: a .111 ISO in 2006, .117 in 2007 and a paltry .092 in 2008. Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs:

Cabrera’s Runs/100 Value against fastballs, 2006-2008

2006: +0.77
2007: -0.15
2008: -1.41

With big problems against heaters, Melky popped the ball up a ton in 2008. His infield/fly ball percentage was 15.3, 13th-highest among batters with 400+ PA.

Despite two stagnant seasons, Cabrera entered 2009 at 24 years old. While he didn’t drop any jaws this past year, he did reverse some of those troubling trends in the batter’s box.

In 540 PA, Cabrera posted a 102 wRC+. His walk rate didn’t bounce back to that 2006 level, but he drew a free pass 8.1% of the time. Melky’s O-Swing% was a league-average 24.9, and he took a cut at a few more pitches thrown over the plate (63.7 Z-Swing%). While not slamming fastballs (-0.02 runs per 100 pitches), Cabrera at least didn’t have the bat knocked out of his hands. His infield/fly ball rate fell to a more palatable 10.3%.

Cabrera also displayed a little more thump, with a .142 ISO and 13 home runs. He didn’t show much of a home/away platoon split. Though he’s not a huge stolen base threat, Cabrera did chip in 10 steals in 12 attempts.

In Atlanta, Cabrera figures to get a crack at the left field job. He has plenty of experience in center, but he has a career -5.9 UZR/150 in the middle pasture. Nate McLouth (career -7.1 UZR/150 in CF) hasn’t rated all that well either, though he did post a positive mark in 2009. Right field figures to be Jason Heyward’s domain for the next decade. Jordan Schafer shouldn’t be counted out, either.

Melky could be part of a platoon with righty-hitting Matt Diaz. Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has an 88 sOPS+ against righty pitching (12 percent worse than the league average) and a 75 sOPS+ against lefties (25 percent worse).

Of course, one could make the argument that the 32 year-old Diaz would be the better option regardless of which side the pitcher winds up from. Since 2006, Diaz has a 105 sOPS+ against righties and a 135 sOPS+ vs. southpaws. CHONE’s 2010 projections for the two are pretty even:.284/.349/.427 for Cabrera, .280/.340/.436 for Diaz.

While the 19 year-old Vizcaino has the most star potential of Atlanta’s trade goodies, Cabrera is basically an average hitter with some defensive chops in an outfield corner. He’s not terribly exciting, but Melky has some value as a guy with a few years of team control and perhaps some development time left. For Cabrera to be a fantasy option, however, he will have to take another step forward offensively.

After we checked center field this week, reactions were immediate and in favor of some of the names that didn’t quite make the top 15. These reactions were not without reason, because the position was surprisingly deep, especially if speed is the desired commodity.

The biggest hub-ub was raised in favor of Colby Rasmus, who is most certainly the best real-life player that didn’t make the list. His combination of plus defense in centerfield (+13.4 UZR/150) and developing offense (.311 wOBA) was already worth more than two wins for the Cardinals. But offense is the name of the game in fantasy, and his .251 batting average and modest speed (three stolen bases) last year were not good enough to roster in most mixed leagues.

The fans have rosy expectations for the player (outpacing the Bill James projections for once), and given his minor league stats, there’s reason for the optimism. As a youngster in most levels (he’s 23 now), he put up a nice combined line of .277/.366/.485 with power (.208 ISO) and speed (74 stolen bases, 81% success rate). But his batting averages also dropped with every successive promotion in the minor leagues, and batting average is the main difference between the Jamesian projections and those of the fans.

So will he hit .269 and recover some of the speed he showed in the minors and approximate a young Carlos Beltran next year? or will he hit .253 and make owning him a difficult proposition in 5×5 roto play? The key seems to be BABIP. James has him with a modest number for a man with wheels (.279). His batted ball profile last year (.284 BABIP, 19.6% line drive rate) seems to suggest he was slightly unlucky (.307 xBABIP) and that the fans’ BABIP projection (.314) is more reasonable. Given Rasmus’ pedigree, and his demonstrated power and speed, there are few late-round upside picks that are as exciting. Just draft Rasmus as your fourth outfielder in order to mitigate the batting average risk.

Dexter Fowler is another interesting name that didn’t quite make the list. The concern with Fowler is that Carlos Gonzalez played better defense in center field according to UZR and also outperformed Fowler at the plate in the second half. One thing that Fowler really needs to work on is his strikeout rate (26.8% in 2009) and his minor league numbers (23.7%) seem to suggest he can cut the Ks. If the Rockies don’t trade their outfield surplus, however, Fowler could find himself as the fourth outfielder that starts only against lefties (.850 career OPS vs. lefties). Regardless, Fowler’s pedigree with the scouting community should give him the benefit of the doubt if he finds himself battling with Seth Smith for time. Just realize that as it stands now, depending on Fowler for speed on your roto team is fraught with some risk.

Chris Young is an interesting outfielder, but he deserves a whole post of his own. Instead, let’s give a short shout-out to the new Reds centerfielder, Drew Stubbs. Though he strikes out too much (27.2% last year) to produce a great batting average, he has plus speed (6.1 speed score, 10 stolen bases, 71.4% success rate) that can actually improve. Consider that he’s bettered last year’s speed score in five out of six minor league seasons, and Bill James’ projections (51 stolen bases) don’t seem as outlandish as they might upon first blush. Deep leaguers looking for cheap speed need to remember this name.

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs swapped undesired contracts on Friday, as the M’s acquired OF/DH Milton Bradley for RHP Carlos Silva. Bradley is owed a combined $21M for the 2010-2011 seasons, while Silva is set to rake in $25M ($11.5M each in 2010 and 2011, plus a $2M buyout on a $12M mutual option for 2012). Apparently, Seattle will kick in $9M, saving Chicago $5M in the transaction.

(salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Silva (he of a career 4.48 xFIP and a recent rotator cuff injury) isn’t of much concern to fantasy owners. But what’s left of Milton Bradley’s game? Let’s try to find out.

Bradley, of course, had a turbulent tenure on the North Side. He didn’t perform up to expectations in 2009, though he’s probably not responsible for global warming, swine flu and the financial collapse, as some Chicago columnists would have you believe.

The switch-hitter has long been a quality offensive player. His career wRC+ is 120, meaning Bradley’s wOBA in the majors is 20 percent better than average, once we account for park and league factors. Milton was an absolute machine in 2007 and 2008, posting wRC+ figures of 155 and 160, respectively. 2008 was the best year of his career, as Bradley set personal bests in home runs (22), Isolated Power (.242) and walk rate (16.2%). It was also just the second time in his career that he topped the 500 PA mark.

While Bradley annihilated pitchers in Arlington, we shouldn’t have expected a repeat of his monstrous ’08 campaign. His BABIP was an absurd .396, highest among all hitters. Milton’s Expected BABIP, by contrast, was .334. Bradley’s 2007-2008 power outburst was also well above his established level: his combined ISO over those two seasons was .241, compared to .170 from 2004-2006.

In a “down” 2009 season, Bradley was still above average with the bat (108 wRC+). He remained extremely patient at the plate (14.4 BB%). His pop, however, got lost at the airport terminal:

Milton’s ISO dipped to .140, his lowest mark since a 2001 season split between Les Expos and the Indians. During his 2007-2008 power surge, Bradley hit ground balls 40.4% of the time, while putting the ball in the air 37 percent. In ’09, his groundball rate rose to about 47 percent, while his fly ball rate fell to 33.3 percent.

During his banner ’08 season, Bradley had a humongous batting average on ground balls (remember that MLB-leading BABIP?) In ’09, not so much:

Bradley’s Batting Average on Ground Balls

2008: .323 BAVG (.242 AL AVG)
2009: .200 BAVG (.240 AL AVG)
Bradley’s Career Average: .228

Though Bradley was able-bodied enough to take 473 trips to the plate in 2009, he was rarely healthy. He battled quad, groin, hamstring, hip and knee ailments. Milton’s propensity to get dinged up was exacerbated by the lack of the DH. All of those bumps and bruises have taken a toll on Bradley’s wheels:

Bradley’s Speed Score, 2005-2009
2005: 5.1
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.5
2008: 3.2
2009: 2.6

Back in the AL, Bradley will likely patrol left field, while getting to rest his achy knees at least occasionally at DH. What can we expect out of Milton in 2010? CHONE projects a .369 wOBA, while Bill James forecasts a .365 wOBA. Thus far, the Fans call for a .373 wOBA.

Granted, Safeco Field is not a hitter’s haven by any means. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco depressed run scoring by 6 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. He’s not going to a great environment to get his power stroke back (95 HR park factor for lefty batters, 91 for righty hitters).

Still, Bradley (32 in April) has superb on-base skills. With a mild bounce back in the power category (not to his ’07-08 glory days, but around his career .172 ISO), he could be a pretty nice pickup for the Mariners and fantasy players.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

There might be some grumblings about putting Matt Kemp into a tier of his own. The fact is, he’s the closest to .300 30/30 out there and that means something. Even with the eventual bounce back that both Grady Sizemore (.276 BABIP in 09, .308 xBABIP in 09, .317 career BABIP) and Curtis Granderson (.276 BABIP in 09, .301 xBABIP in 09, .323 career BABIP) will be getting in the average department, they both should fall short of those hallowed numbers. Kemp just needs a few more fly balls to leave the yard, and with his increasing fly ball totals and HR/FB ratios, it doesn’t take much squinting to get him there.

Carlos Beltran doesn’t quite have the speed to join the top tier, but injury concerns aside, he’s pretty much the definition of the second tier. Before last year, he’d cleared 600 plate appearances for eight straight years, so he’s a decent bet as a value pick once the first two rounds are complete. Jacoby Ellsbury is in the news a lot these days, has more speed than anyone on the list, but also has very little power and may be destined for a new position. You could pick him if you are getting plus power from a position on the infield, though, and not miss a beat.

Josh Hamilton’s position in the tier may be the most tenuous. The injury concerns are real (469 average PAs over the last three years), and speed is probably not part of the package any more (20 stolen bases and 7 caught stealings career). I would definitely be tempted to wait on him and pick the surging Carlos Gonzalez instead. CarGo rode a .320/.384/.608 second half (with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases) into our collective consciousness. One of the main reasons for his effectiveness was that he cut down his strikeouts (23.2% in second half, 26% career), and we know he has the tools to continue producing should the refined approach continue. Bucs wunderkind Andrew McCutchen and O’s rising star Adam Jones help fill the Upside Tier, a trough that many knowledgeable readers will be dipping into next year. With Jones’ tiny walk rate (5.6% career) I just see a little more risk there. We’ve written extensively on B.J. Upton, who may yet have books written about him. Suffice it to say that his oscillating power (ISOs ranging from .046 to .209) and BABIPs (.312 to .399) make him risky.

The next tier we might as well call the “No-Power-All-Speed” tier. With his terrible 2008, of course there’s a reason to doubt Michael Bourn, but his walk rate, BABIP and line drive percentage all finally approached his minor league rates. He might have just found himself on the major league level finally, and he looks to have the best speed of this bunch. Otherwise, there’s not really much difference between Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Take your pick.

The last tier is looking for redemption in some cases. Shane Victorino is being grounded slightly by his splits (.749 career OPS vs righties) but also by rumors that Placido Polanco will take his position in the lineup for reasons unclear. He still could provide tremendous value if he gets drafted at this tier position. It’s unclear why he stole fewer bases as his success rate (79.6%) and speed score (7.5) are still elite. Torii Hunter will get some love in the comments, perhaps, but his BABIP was at a nine-year high last year, and if his average drops, his 20/20 prowess looks a little less sexy. If batting average is not a concern, he’s a decent pickup late in the game. Vernon Wells just needs more space than we have here.

This position was deeper than I expected. Young players like Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and Franklin Gutierrez could all join the big boys with some steps forward in their games. All of them already make decent bench picks even in mixed leagues.

Lost in the awesomeness of the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee blockbuster, the Dodgers have traded outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for minor leaguers Jon Link and John Ely. The White Sox have been looking for a leadoff hitter for what seems like an eternity, so this trade must have gotten the White Sox brass all kinds of excited.

Pierre has been stuck behind Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles for the past year and a half, but managed to find plenty of playing time in 2009 when Manny was suspended for trying to get pregnant. When Pierre started games last year, he hit .304/.355/.386 with 28 steals and 43 runs scored in 350 plate appearances. Overall last year, Pierre hit .308/.365/.392 in 425 plate appearances, striking out only 27 times.

Pierre had an outstanding month of May, hitting .369/.435/.505 with 9 steals. Somehow, he managed to drive in 18 runs for the Dodgers, a number he could not match in all the other months combined. His numbers dropped off in June, when he hit .264/.319/.309, but he did accumulate 11 steals during the month.

Since coming into the majors in 2000, Pierre has been one of fantasy baseball’s premier base stealers. His lowest steal total in a season with 600+ plate appearances was 46, back in his first full year in 2001. Since then, he has stolen 55+ bases four times, coming in at over 60 twice.

Pierre sports an outstanding line drive clip, with a career rate of 22%. In his past two seasons with the Dodgers, this rate jumped up to 24%.

Now that he will be a full time player again in a decent White Sox lineup, Pierre’s value skyrockets. I’ve never been one to pay for his services, but if you are looking for steals he is once again “the man”. A .290 average with 45+ steals is completely reasonable to expect in 2010.